Sveriges femte nationalrapport om klimatförändringar I enlighet med Förenta Nationernas ramkonvention om klimatförändringar (Departementsserien 2009:63 Sweden's Fifth National Communication on Climate Change)

Sveriges femte nationalrapport om klimatförändringar I enlighet med Förenta Nationernas ramkonvention om klimatförändringar

Ds 2009:63

Sweden’s Fifth

National Communication on Climate Change

Under the United Nations Framework

Convention on Climate Change

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Ds 2009:63

Sweden’s fifth National Communication on Climate Change

Under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

Foreword

Sweden’s fifth national communication is formulat- ed in accordance with the guidelines adopted by the parties to the United Nations Framework Conven- tion on Climate Change. It presents basic facts on Swedish society and reviews the various sectors of society in accordance with the classification agreed upon within UNFCCC. Emissions and removals of different greenhouse gases are reported for each sec- tor and as an aggregate for each year since 1990, to- gether with the impact of various policy instruments on emissions.

The assessments presented in the report show that Sweden has succeeded in breaking the link between economic growth and greenhouse gas emissions. The policy instruments introduced have had a significant effect, and emissions have fallen by around 9 per cent since 1990.At the same time, Sweden can point to relatively high economic growth. The report also contains projections for emissions up to 2020. Ac- cording to these projections, emissions will continue to decrease, but additional measures are needed to meet Sweden’s national targets for 2020. The Gov- ernment has announced measures tonnes for tonnes in order to achieve the national target of 40 per cent reduction by the year 2020.

The national communication describes Sweden’s vulnerability and what the country is doing to adapt to climate change. Sweden’s international efforts in relation to development assistance with relevance to climate change are presented, as are research and de- velopment. Finally, an account is given of Sweden’s work on education, training and public awareness with regard to the problem of climate change.

The material on which the national communica- tion has been based has been obtained through ex- tensive activity on the part of government agen- cies, led by the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency and the Swedish Energy Agency and with input from around ten different agencies. Most of the work on the fifth national communication was done over the period from the end of 2008 to the summer of 2009.

In March 2009 the Swedish Government present- ed a coherent climate and energy policy which lay the foundation for the future efforts that need to be made in order to contribute to a stablisation of the greenhouse gas concentration at a level that enable the 2 degrees Celsius target to be reached.

Sweden’s targets for climate and energy policy by 2020 are:

•40 per cent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions

•at least 50 per cent renewable energy

•20 per cent more efficient energy use

•at least 10 per cent renewable energy in the trans- port sector

The target of a 40 per cent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions relates to the non-trading sector, i.e. sectors not encompassed by the EU Emissions Trad- ing Scheme. It therefore relates for example to trans- port, housing, waste facilities and parts of industry. The reduction for activities encompassed by the EU Emissions Trading Scheme is jointly determined at EU level. How the targets indicated above will be met is outlined in the Government’s Climate and Energy Bills.

It should be emphasised in particular that the basic projection for Swedish greenhouse gas emissions does not take account of decisions taken and policy instruments introduced after June 2008. When the policy instruments and measures presented in the new climate policy are implemented, the projection by 2020 will be updated.

The projection was, however, subsequently sup- plemented to include additional measures taken as a consequence of decisions in the EU and measures announced in the Government’s Climate Bill in the spring of 2009. These additions are discussed in sec- tion 5.4.

Stockholm, December 2009

Innehåll

1	Summary. . . . . . . . .		.	. . . . . . . . .	. . . .	. . . . .	. . . . . . . . . .	. . . .	. . .	. . . .	. . . .	. . .	. .	. .	. . .	. . .	. . . .	. .	. . .	. .	. .	. .	. . .	. . . .	. . .	. . . .	. . . . .	.	. 6
	1.1	National circumstances.				. . .	. . . . . . .	. 對							. .	. . . . . . . .				.	. 對						.	.	6
	1.2	Greenhouse gas emissions. .					. . . . . . . . .		. 對							. .	. . . . . .			. . . .			對						7
	1.3	Policies and measures. .				. . .	. . . . . . .	對						.	. . . . . . . . . .					. 對							. . .		. 7
	1.4	Projections and combined effects of policies and measures.														. .	. . . . . .			. .	.	對					.	.	9
	1.5	Vulnerability assessment, climate-change impacts and adaptations.																.	. .	. . . .			. .	. . 對				11
	1.6	Financial resources and transfer of technology. .									. . . . . . . . .					. 對								. .	. . . . . . . .			12
	1.7	Research and systematic observation.						. . . . . . . .			. .	. 對								. .	. .		. .	. . .	. .	. 對		13
	1.8	Education, training and public awareness.							. .	. .	. . .	. .	.	. 對								.	. .	. . .	. .	. .	. . 對	14
2	National circumstances. . . .				. . . .	. . . . .	. . . . . . . . . .	. . . .	. . .	. . . .	. . . . .	. . .	. .	.	. . .	. . .	. . . .	. .	. . .	. .	. .	. .	. . .	. . . .	. . .	. . . .	. . . . .	.16
	2.1	Government structure .				. . .	. . . . . . .	. 對							. .	. . . . . . . .				.	. 對						.	16
	2.2	Population profile .																										16
	2.3	Geographic profile .																										17
	2.4	Climate profile . . .			. . .	. . .	. . . 對				.	. . . . . .				. .	. . .	對							. . . . . . .			17
	2.5	Economy .																										18
	2.6	Energy . . .		. . . . . . . . .		對			. .	. .	. . .	. .	.	.	. 對								. .	. . .	. .	. .	. . . 對	19
	2.7	Building stock and urban structure . .						. . . . . . .			. . .	對							.	.	. . .		. .	. . .	. .	對		22
	2.8	Industry . .	.	. . . . . . . .		. 對			.	. . .	. .	. .	. .	.	. 對								. . . . . . . . . . . .					23
	2.9	Transport .																										23
	2.10	Waste . . .	.	. . . . . .	. . 對				. .	. . .	. . .	. .	.	.	對							.	. .	. .	. .	. . .	. . 對	24
	2.11	Agriculture		. . . . . . . . .		. . .	對		.		. . . . . . . . .					. .	對							. . . . . . . . .				26
	2.12	Forestry . .	.	. . . . . . . .		. 對			.	. . .	. .	. .	. .	.	. 對								. . . . . . . . . . . .					27

3 Greenhouse gas inventory 1990-2007. . . . . . . . . . . .	對	. . . . . . . . . . . .
3.1 Total emissions and removals of greenhouse gases. . .		. . . . . . . .

3.2Emissions and removals of greenhouse gases per sector .

對 . . . . . . . . . . . . 對 28

. 對 . . . . . . . . 28

4 Policies and measures. . . . . . . .		. . . . 對 .					. . . . . . . . . . . 對 . . . . . . .	. . . . .	對			. . . . . . . . . .	. .	對344
4.1	Swedish climate strategy.													34
4.2	Policy instruments in Swedish climate strategy and their effects. . . .							. . . . .	.	. . .	. . . . . . .	. . . . . . . . . . .	. .	37
4.3	Work on project-based flexible mechanisms under the Kyoto Protocol .													54
4.4	Cost-effectiveness of policies and measures in Swedish climate strategy.								.	. .	. . . . .	. . . 對 55
4.5	Instruments taken out of use. . .		.	.	.	.	. . . . . 對 . . . . . .		.	. .	. . . 對 57
4.6	Summary table of instruments.													58
5 Projections and aggregate effects of policies and measures. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .								. . . .	.	. . .	. . . . . . .	. . . . . . . . . . . .	. .	.60
5.1	Aggregate projections.	. . . . . . .	.	.	.	. 對 . . . . . . . . . . .			.	對 .			.	. 60
5.2	Projections by sector. .	. . . . . . .	.	.	.	對 . . . . . . . . . . . .			對 . .				.	61
5.3	Sensitivity analysis. . .	. . . . . . .	.	.	對 . . . . . . . . . .			. . 對 . . .					.	. 66
5.4	Projection with additional measures.													68
5.5	Comparison with the Fourth National Communication.													68
5.6	Assessment of total effects of policies and measures.													69
5.7	Target fulfilment in relation to Sweden’s commitment under the Kyoto Protocol.											. . . . . . . .	.	70
5.8	Target fulfilment in relation to Swedish and EU climate targets. . .							. . .	.	. .	. . . 對 71

6 Vulnerability assessment, climate change impacts and adaptations.												. .	. .	. . . . . . . 對			. .				.	.	. . . . . . .	.	對 72
6.1	Introduction. . .	. .	. . . . . .	. 對 . . . . . . . . . .								.	.	對					. . . . . . . .						.		72
6.2	The Swedish climate in a state of change. .						. .	.	. .		. . . . . 對							. .	. . . . . . . . . .					對			72
6.3	Climate impacts and vulnerability assessment							. .	.	. . . . . . . .		.	對						. . . . . . . . .						.		76
6.4	National adaptation measures. . .				. . . . . . . . .			對 . . . . . . . . . .											. .	對							80
6.5	International work.		. . . . . . . . . .		. 對 . . . . .							.	.	. . . . . 對					. . .						. .		81
7 Financial resources and transfer of technology . . . .							. . . .	. . .	. 對 . . . .			. .	. . .	. . .對				. . . . .	. . . .	. . ..	.	. .	. . . . . .	.	.	.	.82
7.1	Introduction. . .	. .	. . . . . .	. 對 . . . . . . . . . .								.	.	對					. . . . . . . .						.		82
7.2	Objective and funding. . .			. . . . .	. .	. . 對 . .						. . . . . . . .			.	.	對		.							.	82
7.3	Multilateral contributions.																										85
7.4	Bilateral and regional contribution.					. . . . . . . .		.	.	.	對 . . . . . .								. .	. .	.	.	對				86
7.5	Technology development and diffusion. . .						. .	. .	.	.	. . . 對				. . .				. .	. .	.	.	. . . 對				90
7.6	Capacity building.		. . . . . . . . . .		. 對 . . . . . .							.	.	. . . . 對					. . . .						.		91
8 Research and systematic observation. . . .					. . .	. . . . . 對		. . . . . . . . .				.	. .	對 . . .					. . .	. . .	.	.	. 對		94
8.1	Policy, organisation and funding of R&D and systematic observation . .															. . . . .			. .	. .	.	對					94
8.2	Programmes for and funding of climate-related research. . .											. . . . . . . .			.	對			.					.		.	97
8.3	Programmes and funding for systematic observation .																									100
9 Education, training and public awareness. .						. . . . . . . .	. . 對	. . . .				.	. .	. . . . . 對			.			. . .	.	.	. . . . . . 對		104
9.1	Policy for education, training and public awareness.																									104
9.2	Mass media and the issue of climate change. .							.	. . . . . . . . .			對							. . . . . . . . . .						.	104
9.3	Public awareness. .		. . . . . . . . . .		對 . . . . . .							. .	.	. . . 對					. . . . .							104
9.4	Climate information centres. . . . .				. . .	. . . . . . . .	. . .	. .	. .	.	. . . . . . . . . . .	.	. .	. . . . . . . .	.	. .	.	. . .	. . .	. . .	. .	.	. . . . . .	.	.	104
9.5	Initiatives and activities. . .			. . . .	. .	. . . 對 . .						. . . . . . . .				.	. 對									106
Annexes
Annex 1: Acronyms and abbreviations. .					. . .	. . . . . . . 對					. . . . . . .	.	. .	. . 對			.		. . .	. . .	.	.	. . . 對		1110
Annex 2: Summary emissions tables. . . .					. . .	. . . . . . . .	. . . .	.	. .	.	. . . . . . . . . . .	.	. .	. . . . . . . . .		. .	. .	. . .	. . .	. . .	.	. .	. . . . . .	.	.	1122
Annex 3: The national system. . . .				. . . . . . .	. . .	. . . . . . . .	. . . .	.	. .	.	. . . . . . . . . . .	.	. .	. . . . . . . . .	.	.	. .	. . .	. . .	. . .	.	. .	. . . . . .	.	.	1338
Annex 4: The national registry. . .				. . . . . . .	. . .	. . . . . . . .	. . . .	.	. .	.	. . . . . . . . . . .	.	. .	. . . . . . . . .	.	.	. .	. . .	. . .	. . .	.	. .	. . . . . .	.	.	1440
Annex 5: Projection methodology and basis of calculation. . . . . . . . . . .												.	對 . .					. . .	. . .	. . .	.	對			1422
Annex 6: Bilateral and regional financial support 2004-2008 related to implementation of the
	UnitedNations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol.. . . . . .																							.	.	1448
Annex 7: Information in accordance with Article 7.22 of the Kyoto Protocol. . . .															.	.	. .	. . .	. . .	. . .	.	. .	. . . . . .	.	.	1544

1Summary

Greenhouse gas emissions in Sweden, excluding emissions and removals from land use and forestry (LULUCF) decreased by 9 per cent over the period 1990 to 2007 and are expected to continue to de- cline. Emissions in 2020 are estimated to be around 16 per cent below 1990 levels with the addition- al EU-wide and national policy instruments decid- ed during 2009. These additional policies are ex- pected to by 2020 result in emissions from sectors not included in the EU emission trading scheme to be around 25 per cent below the 1990 levels. Fur- ther national measures have been announced in the 2009 climate policy resolutions together with invest- ments in other countries. Sweden’s commitments on emissions under the Kyoto Protocol and EU burden sharing are that emissions as an annual average for the period 2008-2012 will be no more than 104 per cent of 1990 emissions. Sweden is on track to com- fortably meeting the commitment.

This is Sweden’s Fifth National Communication, under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which presents the national activities implemented in order to fulfil the com- mitments in accordance with UNFCCC, the Kyoto Protocol and the separate Conferences of the Parties (COP) which have to be reported in a national com- munication.

1.1National circumstances

Factors that have an impact on a country’s level of and trend in greenhouse gas emissions include popu- lation, climatic conditions, energy and transport sys- tems, industrial structure and economy.

The Swedish population was 9.2 million in 2007, and has risen in average by 0.4 per cent per year since 1990 with a higher rate of increase since 2000.

Average annual temperature over the period 1991-

2007 was around 1°C higher than in the period 1961-1990.The need for energy for heating has been very low in the 1990s and 2000s. 1996 is the only year to date since 1990 in which there was a great- er need for heating than the average for the period 1965-1995.

The economy grew by an average of 2.3 per cent annually over the period 1990-2007, with the high- est rate of growth in the periods 1994-1995, 1998- 2000 and 2004-2006, with an annual average of 4–4.5 per cent.

Sweden’s final primary energy use increased by 8 per cent between 1990 and 2007 and in the past 5 years has been around 400 TWh. There is no recov- ery of oil, natural gas or coal in Sweden.The total pri- mary energy supply is principally based on domestic supply of bioenergy, hydropower, nuclear power and, to a lesser extent, ambient heat for heat pumps and imports of oil, natural gas, coal and biomass prod- ucts. 40 per cent of oil products have been replaced by non-fossil energy sources since the 1970s. A sub- stantial change has taken place in energy supply for homes and commercial premises. The infrastructure for district heating production and distribution has been expanded starting in the late 1960s, and dis- trict heating production has risen by 370 per cent since 1970 and by 32 per cent since the period 1990 to 2007. At the same time, the proportion of biofu- els for production increased from 2 per cent to 70 per cent over the period 1970-2007. This propor- tion rose by 14 percentage points between 2004 and 2007. District heating has been essential for environ- mentally sound heating of buildings based on bio- fuels and crucial in enabling national policy instru- ments for renewable energy to bring about the ex- tensive phasing-out of fossil fuels for the heating of buildings that has occurred. The share of renewable energy in Sweden increased by a total of 10 percent-

6 1. Summary

age points to 44 per cent between 1990 and 2007. Naturally good access to watercourses for hydro- power production, combined with national energy policy and investments in non-fossil-based electric- ity, has resulted in Sweden having almost entirely fossil-free electricity supply.

Except for a brief period in the early 1990s, dis- tance travelled in both passenger and freight trans- port has increased since 1990. The trend was strong- er in the period 2004 to 2007 than the average since 1990, and there was a particularly sharp increase in freight transport. Green cars have taken an increas- ingly large share of new car sales since 2005, ac- counting for 33 per cent in 2008. Ethanol vehicles make up 70 per cent of green cars.The use of renew- able motor fuels has risen sharply, to 5 per cent of energy use by road traffic in 2008.

The impact of industry on greenhouse gas emis- sions comes principally from its energy use and from process emissions in the mineral industry and the iron and steel industry. Industry accounted for just under 40 per cent of final primary energy use in Sweden in 2007. The paper and pulp industry ac- counts for nearly half the total energy consumption of industry, principally in the form of electricity and black liquors. The iron and steel industry has a sig- nificant impact on Swedish greenhouse gas emis- sions as 14 per cent of the country’s total carbon di- oxide emissions in 2007 originate from this industry. Production increased by 35 per cent between 1990 and 2004 but then declined by 10 per cent, princi- pally in 2008 as a result of the financial crisis. Most of the residual gases from coke furnaces and blast furnaces are used for electricity production, internal heat supply and district heating for homes and com- mercial premises.

1.2Greenhouse gas emissions

Total greenhouse gas emissions in Sweden, calculat- ed as carbon dioxide equivalent, were approximately 65.4 million tonnes in 2007 (excluding LULUCF), of which 79 per cent was carbon dioxide. Just over 90 per cent of carbon dioxide emissions came from the energy and transport sectors. The breakdown of other emissions was 8 per cent methane (principal- ly agriculture and waste), 11 per cent nitrous oxide (principally agriculture) and 2 per cent fluorinated greenhouse gases. Emissions decreased by around 6.5 million tonnes or 9 per cent between 1990 and 2007. Aggregated greenhouse gas emissions varied, but over the period 1999-2007 they were below the 1990 level in all cases. Calculated on a per capita

Million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent 90

40
30
20
10
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Waste	Industrial processes
Agriculture	Transport
Solvent and other product use	Energy

Figure 1.1 Total greenhouse gas emissions from different sectors

basis, emissions decreased from 8.4 tonnes of CO2 eq in 1990 to 7.1 tonnes in 2007. The greatest de- creases in emissions over the period occurred in the residential and service, agriculture and waste sectors. Emissions have increased principally in the transport sector and in some industries.

The decrease in emissions from the residential and service sector is principally due to oil for heating having been replaced by biomass-based district heat- ing and in recent years also by heat pumps and pellet- fired boilers. Methane emissions from waste have de- creased as a result of household waste no longer being landfilled and the collection and disposal of methane gas from landfills for energy recovery having increased. The most significant reasons for the reduced emis- sions from agriculture are reduced numbers of cattle and lower use of both mineral fertiliser and manure.

Emissions from domestic transport increased by 12 per cent between 1990 and 2007. Diesel for freight transport by road increased in particular. Use of petrol has instead declined somewhat. Vehicle fuel taxes, together with high petrol prices, have contrib- uted to a switch to renewable fuels and increased demand for energy-efficient new cars. [Fig 1.1]

Emissions from international bunkering of fuels have increased by 170 per cent since 1990. The net sink for the land use, land-use change and forestry sector (LULUCF) was around 21 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2007.

1.3Policies and measures

Sweden’s climate strategy has developed steadily since the end of the 1980s. The strategy consists of objectives, policy instruments and measures and re- current follow-up and assessment of established ob- jectives and strategies. Sweden is striving with the

1. Summary	7

other EU Member States to achieve a global agree- ment which is compatible with limiting the rise in temperature to no more than 2 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial level.

A new climate policy decision was adopted by the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag) in June 2009. Swe- den’s international efforts will be focused on the level of greenhouse gases having to be stabilised in the long term at a level no higher than 400 ppm carbon dioxide equivalent.The target for 2020 is that emissions for activities not covered by the EU Emis- sions Trading Scheme should be 40 per cent lower than emissions in 1990. To enable this target to be achieved, policy instruments and changes in policy instruments already decided upon in the EU will be supplemented by further elaborated tax instruments and mitigation measures in other countries.

Sweden has introduced a number of policy instru- ments that directly or indirectly limit greenhouse gas emissions. The use of cross-cutting economic policy instruments is emphasised in Swedish climate strat- egy, but these instruments are also supplemented in many cases by more targeted initiatives, for instance to support technological development and market introduction.

Energy and carbon dioxide taxes on fossil fuels have contributed to sharp reductions in emissions in the residential and service sector and in the district heat- ing sector, as well as curbing the growth in emissions in the transport sector. The level of carbon dioxide tax in future should, in addition to the annual adjust- ment in accordance with the consumer price index, be adapted to an extent and at a rate which, together with other changes in economic instruments, results in an aggregate reduction in greenhouse gas emis- sions outside EU ETS of 2 million tonnes by 2020.

The EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) has become the principal control mechanism in indus- try since 2005. Emissions from Swedish installations in the ETS were equivalent to around 33 per cent of total greenhouse emissions in Sweden over the period 2005-2007. Around 80 per cent were from industrial installations and 20 per cent from elec- trical and district heating installations. The annual emissions cap in the period 2008-2012 was lowered by around 10 per cent compared with the cap that applied during the first period 2005-2007. Emissions from Swedish installations in the scheme are esti- mated to have decreased in 2007 and 2008 in com- parison with emissions during the first two years.

Government grants to local climate investment programmes (Klimp) were made from 2003 to 2008. The preliminary outcome for Klimp programmes, to-

gether with the previous local investment grant (LIP) is that they may contribute to a reduction in emis- sions of up to 1.8 million tonnes annually from 2010.

The energy sector

As well as being included in EU ETS since 2005, combustion installations for electricity and district heating are covered by carbon dioxide and energy taxes, electricity certificate system, the provisions of the Environmental Code and special support for wind power. It is estimated that emissions from the electricity and district heating sector would have been around 15 milliion tonnes higher in 2007 if economic policy instruments applicable in 1990 had been retained in the sector instead of being further developed and tightened. Coal in particular would have been profitable to use more widely if the policy instruments had not been tightened.

The decrease in emissions from the residential and service sector in 2007 in comparison with 1990 was nearly 7 million tonnes. As well as energy and carbon dioxide taxes, energy use has also been af- fected by grants (for example for the expansion of and connection to district heating), energy efficiency requirements for new and existing buildings and EC Directives, for example the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive, the Ecodesign Directive and the Energy Labelling Directive.

The industrial sector

Policy instruments influencing emissions from the industrial sector were already in place before 1990. Policy instruments introduced later are not deemed to have had any significant guiding effect. However, EU ETS is expected to have a major impact on the industrial sector as a policy instrument in the longer term. Emissions of fluorinated gases are governed by the EU regulation and directive on emissions of cer- tain flourinated greenhouse gases.

Carbon dioxide and energy taxes are due to be raised in 2011 and 2015 for industry not covered by EU ETS.

The transport sector

Taxes on vehicle fuels have been raised in several stages since 1990. Tax increases, together with rises in fuel prices, have curbed growth in transport, en- couraged more energy-efficient vehicles and eased the introduction of biofuels. The taxes are supple- mented by targeted policy instruments for the intro- duction of renewable energy into the road transport sector and for more energy-efficient vehicles.

The strategy for vehicle biofuels contains a tem-

8 1. Summary

porary exemption from energy and carbon dioxide taxes for all vehicle biofuels until 2013. To increase the availability of biofuels, all larger filling stations are required by law to sell at least one renewable fuel.

A government green-car rebate has been paid since 2007 on the purchase of vehicles capable of running on E85 or biogas, electric and electric hybrid cars and particularly fuel-efficient vehicles that do not emit more than 120 grams CO2/km. Since 2006, Sweden has also differentiated annual vehicle tax for passenger cars according to the vehicle’s CO2 emis- sions. As well as the Swedish policy instruments, from 2012 car-makers selling cars within the EU will have to comply with the directive on maximum av- erage carbon dioxide emissions from new cars of 130 grams CO2/km by 2015.

The rises in vehicle fuel taxes since 1990 are estimat- ed to lead to 1.9 milliion tonnes CO2/year lower emis- sions in 2010 and 2.4 milliion tonnes CO2/year lower emissions in 2020 than if the nominal tax level in 1990 had been retained.The encouragement of vehicle bio fuels has led to the use of biofuels in 2008 totalling 4.3 TWh, which is equivalent to 1.1 milliion tonnes CO2 in emissions if petrol and diesel had been used instead.

The energy efficiency of the Swedish car fleet has improved from a relatively low level in recent years. Part of the explanation is that the proportion of die- sel-engined cars, which are more energy-efficient than cars running on petrol, has risen sharply.

Waste

Requirements for municipal waste plans and the in- troduction of producer responsibility for various prod- uct groups in the 1990s, the introduction of tax on waste sent to landfill (2000) and subsequent bans on the landfilling of separated combustible (2002) and or- ganic material (2005) have substantially reduced emis- sions from landfills. Only 4 per cent of the total vol- ume of household waste was landfilled in 2007.

The combined effect is estimated to be emissions 1.4 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent lower in 2010 than with 1990 policy instruments. The dif- ference is estimated to be 1.9 tonnes of carbon di- oxide equivalent in 2020. At the same time as emis- sions from landfills have decreased, the combustion of waste in the electricity and district heating sector has increased by around 6 TWh in comparison with 1990 levels, leading to further mitigation, in addition to the decrease in methane emissions at landfills, if waste is assumed to replace fossil fuels.

The agricultural sector

There are few policy instruments to date that are di-

rectly aimed at limiting greenhouse gas emissions in the agricultural sector. However, the Swedish Gov- ernment has taken a number of initiatives in recent years to limit the use of fossil fuels in agriculture, to increase knowledge and encourage measures leading to reduced greenhouse gas emissions from manure management and land use.The Swedish Board of Ag- riculture has been asked to draw up a combined ac- tion programme to reduce plant nutrient losses and greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture. In the framework of the ongoing reform of EU agricultural policy, more resources will be set aside for measures that limit the climate impact of the agricultural sec- tor. The level of energy and carbon dioxide taxes for heating fuels and vehicle fuels used in the land-based industries will also be raised.

The flexible mechanisms of the Kyoto Protocol

Sweden is engaged in work on the project-based mechanisms under the Kyoto Protocol. The Swed- ish Parliament has granted appropriations for inter- national climate change interventions in CDM and JI totalling around SEK 1200 million for the period up to 2011.

The Swedish CDM and JI programme is intend- ed to contribute to the development of CDM and JI as effective climate policy instruments. The pro- gramme has been focused on assistance with indi- vidual projects and on participation in multilateral CDM and JI funds.The individual projects are in the areas of renewable energy and energy efficiency, and funds have been selected on the basis of an endeav- our to achieve geographic spread as well as the pos- sibility of influencing the work of the fund. Sweden at present has agreements with 24 individual CDM projects and 2 JI projects.

Sweden is taking part in five multinational funds: Testing Ground Facility, Prototype Carbon Fund, Asia Pacific Carbon Fund, Future Carbon Fund and Multilateral Carbon Credit Fund.

The total funding granted by the Swedish Parlia- ment for the period 2003-2011 is expected to gen- erate 11-14 of emission reduction units for Sweden.

1.4Projections and combined effects of policies and measures

Projections

A new projection of greenhouse gas emissions and removals has been produced for this national com- munication. The main projection is based on the policy instruments adopted by the EU and the

1. Summary	9

Swedish Parliament up to June 2008. In addition to the main projection with sensitivity alternatives, a projection with “additional measures” decided by EU and the Swedish Parliament by December 2009 is presented.

The projection result points towards total green- house gas emissions (excluding the LULUCF sector) being at the same level as the emission levels of the last few years up to 2010. The effects of the finan- cial crisis now in progress and the sharp economic downturn are thus not integrated into the projection. Emissions are estimated to continue to decrease fur- ther after 2010, and total greenhouse gas emissions in 2020 are estimated to be around 16 per cent lower than in 1990 when the additional EU-wide and na- tional measures decided by December 2009 are in- cluded. These additional measures are estimated to by 2020 result in emissions outside the EU emissions trading scheme to be 25 per cent lower than 1990. For the main projection (based on existing measures June 2008) total emissions are estimated to be 12 per cent below the 1990 levels.

The land use, land-use change and forestry sector (LULUCF) contributed to a net sink for Sweden over the period 1990-2007 and is expected to con- tinue to do so up to 2020.

The trend in emissions in the main projection dif- fers between different sectors of society. Total emis- sions from the energy sector are estimated to remain at roughly the same level over the period 2007 to 2020, while emissions from the transport sector are estimated to increase somewhat. Emissions by the agriculture sector have decreased and are expected to continue to decrease so that they are around 25 per cent below the 1990 level in 2020. Emissions from the waste sector are expected to be halved by 2010 in comparison with 1990 and then to continue to decrease. [Table 1.1]

The projection in this national communication shows 9 per cent lower emissions for 2010 and 18 per cent lower emissions in 2020 than the projection in the Fourth National Communication (NC4). The

Million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent 120

100

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

Estimated emissions without measures

Historical and projected emissions with measures

Projection with additional measures

Figure 1.2 Estimated emissions without implemented meas- ures and with additional measures compared with historical emissions and projected emissions with existing measures.

main reason for the wide differences in outcomes is new assumptions on substantially higher future fossil fuel prices, longer life for nuclear power facilities and greater use of vehicle biofuels, as well as new policy instruments implemented since the Fourth National Communication.

In the “additional measures” alternative, which comprises the EU requirements for the carbon di- oxide emissions of new cars, inclusion of aviation in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme, raising the per- mitted low admixture of ethanol in petrol to 10 per cent and the climate policy decision adopted by the Swedish Parliament in July 2009, it is estimated that emissions can decrease by 2020 by more than 2 mil- lion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent.

Aggregate effects of introduced policy instruments

The total effect of the policy instruments introduced and tightened since 1990 has been estimated at 30- 35 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent an- nually over the period from 2010 to 2020. The cal- culations of how emissions would have developed without implemented policies and measures since 1990 compared with historical and projected emis-

Table 1.1 Historical and projected emissions and removals of greenhouse gases by sector (millions of tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent)

	1990	2005	2007	2010	2015	2020	1990-2010	1990-2015	1990-2020
Energy excl. transport	34.7	28.6	27.4	27.7	27.5	27.4	-20%	-21%	-21%
Transport	18.6	20.9	20.8	21.2	21.5	21.5	14%	16%	16%
Industrial processes	5.8	6.6	6.5	6.2	6.2	6.2	7%	7%	7%
Solvents	0.33	0.3	0.29	0.29	0.29	0.28	-12%	-14%	-15%
Agriculture	9.4	8.6	8.4	8.1	7.6	7.0	-14%	-20%	-25%
Waste	3.1	2.2	1.9	1.5	1.0	0.8	-52%	-67%	-76%
Total emissions	71.9	67.2	65.4	65.0	64.1	63.1	-10%	-11%	-12%
With additional measures	71.9	67.2	65.4	64.0	62.0	60.4	11%	14%	16%
LULUCF	-32.1	-29.1	-20.5	-20.0	-20.2	-19.1	-38%	-37%	-40%

10 1. Summary

sions in Sweden up to 2020 and calculation with ad- ditional planned policies and measures are presented in Figure 1.2.

Fulfilment of commitment under the Kyoto Protocol

Swedish greenhouse gas emissions are not allowed to exceed 104 per cent of the assigned amount for the base year under the Kyoto Protocol and EU burden sharing. Emissions in the base year, when the assigned amount was established, were 72.2 milliion tonnes. Sweden’s greenhouse gas emissions may therefore total a maximum of 75 million tonnes per year, as an average for 2008-12. The result of the projection points towards Swedish greenhouse gas emissions in 2010 being around 65 million tonnes of carbon di- oxide equivalent in the main alternative, which indi- cates that Sweden will comfortably fulfil its commit- ment. Sweden has chosen to account the part of Ar- ticle 3.4 of the Kyoto Protocol that relates to forestry. Forestry is expected to be a net sink for the commit- ment period, and Sweden can register a maximum sink of 2.13 million tonnes. Preparations have been made to enable JI and CDM credits to be used (see Chapter 4.3), but even without these Sweden is esti- mated to comfortably meet its commitment for the period 2008-2012. [Table 1.2]

Table 1.2 Historical and projected greenhouse gas emissions relative to the Kyoto base year and Kyoto target for Sweden (millions of tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent)

Kyoto base year	72.2 Mtonnes
Kyoto target (Kyoto base year - 2008/2012)	4 %
Kyoto target 2008-2012 per year	75.0 Mtonnes
2007 emissions	65.4 Mtonnes
2010 projection	65 Mtonnes
Kyoto base year – 2010 projection	-10 %
Carbon sink in accordance with Articles 3.3 and 3.4	2.13 Mtonnes
2010 projection including Articles 3.3 and 3.4	62.9 Mtonnes
Kyoto base year - 2010 projection including	-12.9 %
Articles 3.3 and 3.4
EU ETS allocation 2008-2012 per year	22.3 Mtonnes
EU ETS projection 2010	21.8 Mtonnes

1.5Vulnerability assessment, climate- change impacts and adaptations

There is more extensive material today on potential regional climate changes than was reported in the Fourth National Communication.The results mainly confirm the previous scenario of significant warming and changes in precipitation.The role of natural vari- ability is significant in the shorter-term perspective. In a longer-term perspective (100-year perspective) the choice of emission scenario has a considerable

bearing on the extent of climate change. The mean values of all scenario analyses indicate a rise in tem- perature in wintertime in northern Sweden of 5.7°C and an increase in precipitation of 25 per cent and for the summer a rise in temperature of 2.9°C and an increase in precipitation of 11 per cent.The mean values in Southern Sweden are a rise in temperature in winter of 4.4°C and an increase in precipitation of 21 per cent, and in summertime an increase of 2.8°C and a change in precipitation of +3 per cent.

Few activities will remain totally unaffected in a changed climate in Sweden with rising temperature and changed patterns of precipitation. In particular the risk of flooding, landslides and erosion is expect- ed to increase in many parts of the country. The risk of flooding is increasing around some of the largest lakes in Sweden, and parts of central Stockholm are expected to be affected.The need to be able to regu- late water flows with new water-discharging strate- gies is under discussion and planning is in progress for increased water-discharging capacity.

Work on climate adaptation has been intensified in various ways in Sweden since 2005. The Plan- ning and Building Act was amended in 2008 so that buildings are only allowed to be erected at suitable locations, and account has to be taken of the risk of accidents, flooding and erosion in municipal compre- hensive plans and detailed development plans. In the area of energy, the vulnerability of the energy sector to extreme weather events has been analysed, and work to replace overhead power lines with buried cables for electricity distribution has been speeded up following the storms of 2005 and 2007. The risks to the road and rail networks of landslides, washing- away and flooding have been analysed and remedial action has been taken where necessary. Continued climate adaptation efforts have been intensified in the Budget Bill in the autumn of 2008 and in the 2009 Climate and Energy Bill. A sum of SEK 400 million has been earmarked for climate change adap- tation measures for the period 2009-2011.

There is no government agency in Sweden with overarching responsibility for the issue of climate change adaptation at national level, but many agen- cies have a designated role in climate change adap- tation activity. The county administrative boards, which have regional administrative responsibility, have the role of supporting and coordinating the im- plementation of adaptation measures. Responsibility for operational adaptation is held at the local level, i.e. it is borne by the municipalities. The municipali- ties are responsible for public planning, contingency planning and emergency services, as well as being the

1. Summary	11

authorities responsible for technical supplies. Practi- cal adaptation measures to date have been principal- ly commenced in municipalities recently affected by extreme weather events. This work has been princi- pally concerned with measures in physical planning and construction. Many municipalities have raised the minimum level for construction, carried out bunding measures and invested in pumping systems against flooding.

1.6Financial resources and transfer of technology

Tackling climate change in developing countries from a Swedish perspective is closely linked with poverty reduction and attaining development objec- tives such as the Millennium Development Goals. The objective of Swedish environmental develop- ment cooperation is to contribute to environmental- ly sustainable development, in order to enable poor people to improve their living conditions. On this basis, Sweden is working in the long term to inte- grate consideration of climate change into a broader spectrum of poverty reduction, for instance in water and sanitation, agriculture and forestry, food security, energy, infrastructure, health and education.

Swedish development cooperation since 2006 has totalled 1 per cent of Gross Domestic Income (GDI), and Swedish support for developing coun- tries therefore surpasses the development assistance target agreed by the OECD Member States of 0.7 per cent. The Swedish climate-related initiatives therefore ought not to have occurred at the expense of other development goals. From the Swedish point of view there is no reason to distinguish climate fi- nancing from development financing, as considera- tion of the environment and climate change is so clearly essential to sustainable development.

Half of Swedish development cooperation is mul- tilateral support, which is channelled through the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Swedish Internation- al Development Cooperation Agency (Sida) and the Ministry of the Environment, including regular and voluntary funding of the UN Framework Conven- tion on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol.The other half is channelled as bilateral aid through Sida, to developing countries and countries with econo- mies in transition. In the area of climate change, Sida works on capacity building, technology cooperation and research cooperation related to adaptation and mitigation in developing countries, and collaborates with non-governmental organisations, Swedish au- thorities, the private sector and research institutes.

Multilateral contributions

Sweden provides assistance to the Global Environ- ment Facility (GEF), most of which is used for cli- mate change-related purposes. Swedish payments to the GEF Trust Fund for 2004-2008 total SEK 947 million. For the fourth replenishment, negotiations on which were completed in 2006, Sweden under- took, in addition to the share decided upon, to make a voluntary contribution of SEK 356 million, and the total contribution is SEK 838 million, which will be paid over a ten-year period up to 2016.

Over the period 2004-2008, Sweden also contrib- uted voluntary assistance totalling SEK 40 million to the Special Climate Change Fund (SCCF) and to the Least Developed Countries Fund (LDCF), which was created in connection with the Marrakesh Ac- cords.

Bilateral and regional contribution

For bilateral cooperation, the Swedish contribution is based on developing countries’ own strategies for poverty reduction, both in the area of climate change and in other areas. The issue of climate change has had a greater impact in recent years. Bilateral climate change assistance comprises initiatives in adaptation and mitigation, technology cooperation and capacity building, including research cooperation, institution- al strengthening and training efforts.

The greatest share of support has gone to adapta- tion, around SEK 5 billion, and to mitigation efforts, just over SEK 3 billion over the period 2004-2008. The emphasis in Swedish support for adaptation is on contributions principally in the water and agricul- ture sectors, as well as programmes for disaster risk management, health contributions, training, capacity building and research. Initiatives in energy and waste management account for the majority of mitigation efforts.

Swedish development cooperation has long em- phasised support to least developed countries and vulnerable countries with a low GDP per capita. The focus in these countries is on adaptation to the adverse effects of climate change in order to reduce

12 1. Summary

the vulnerability of poor people and improve their prospects of adapting to current and future climate change.

Technology development and capacity building

From the point of view of development, the issue of technology is more than physical transfer of hard- ware or software, it is more a matter of developing capacity in developing countries to receive, use and develop technology. This approach is crucial to the prospects of developing countries being able to ac- quire and themselves contribute to sustainable tech- nological solutions adapted to their circumstances.

A Swedish environmental technology initiative is in progress in the areas of sustainable urban devel- opment and renewable energy. The assistance is tar- geted at Sweden’s partner countries in Africa, Asia, Latin America and Eastern and Central Europe, and creates opportunities for authorities, local govern- ments, institutions and companies in these coun- tries to try out new technology in areas such as air pollution, water and sanitation, waste management, energy saving, renewable energy and urban transport.

1.7Research and systematic observation

The combined research investment in climate change and climate change-related energy research increased sharply over the period 2005-2008 and on average totalled around SEK 1.2 billion annually. Most of this sum, averaging SEK 800-850 million an- nually, was addressed to climate-related energy re- search, a large part of which consists of development and demonstration projects.

The total appropriations for research are substan- tially increased in the government budget for 2010- 2012. The annual research appropriations focused on climate and energy increase by just over SEK 500 million annually from 2012.

Climate-related research

Issues addressed in the research area of climate proc- esses and climate modelling include the carbon cycle in coastal areas and how cloud formation is affected by the greenhouse gas and particulate emissions of modern society, the role of the greenhouse effect for the global climate and warming in the Arctic.

The Rossby Centre focuses on climate modelling and the development of regional scenarios that can be used in impact and adaptation studies. Through the Rossy Centre, Sweden takes part in joint Euro- pean projects to develop credible climate scenarios for the 21st century and to improve understanding

of, and opportunities to model, changed sea-ice con- ditions in the Arctic.

In the area of the effects of climate change, stud- ies are in progress on changes in water resources and simulation of changes for the forests and forestry.Ob- servation, experiments and modelling are in progress to gain an understanding of how increased carbon dioxide levels, UVB radiation, soil temperature, air temperature and snow depth affect ecosystems.

The scope of socio-economic research is very broad, encompassing the function of energy systems and environmental sustainability, research on policy instruments and international climate policy process- es, tools for planning for climate change adaptation, loss of biodiversity and the impact of climate change on land use. Sweden also takes part in the European ERA-NET CIRCLE (Climate Impact Research Co- operation within a Larger Europe), which is focused on impacts and adaptation to a changed climate.

In the area of mitigation measures, research pro- grammes are under way for instance on international climate policy, energy research for improved energy efficiency and bioenergy, on optimisation of meas- ures that can meet both air pollution and climate change policy objectives at low cost and on ways in which Sweden can steer in the direction of low-car- bon and sustainable energy and transport systems.

Swedish researchers also cooperate with develop- ing countries in climate-related agricultural research, environmental technology, environmental econom- ics and environmental policy and the greenhouse ef- fects of forest fires and brown clouds from traditional burning of various biofuels in Asia.

Systematic observation

Sweden systematically gathers data on meteorology, hydrology and oceanography and monitors sources and sinks of greenhouse gases and climate-related ef- fects on ecosystems. Sweden has a well developed systematic observation system, and the length of Swedish measurement series in many cases is unpar- alleled in the world.

Sweden contributes to GCOS with long-term ob- servations and measurements of temperature, precip- itation, wave height, icing, variations in glaciers and other “essential climate variables”. Sweden supplies atmospheric data to WMO’s World Weather Watch, contributes data on wind, temperature and precipi- tation to the Network of European Meteorological Services (EUMETNET), reports water runoff data to the Global Terrestrial Observing System (GTOS/ Global Runoff Data Center) and contributes to sat- ellite systems for climate change monitoring.

1. Summary	13

1.8Education, training and public

awareness

In Sweden communication on climate change and on climate-related measures is an important aspect of efforts to reduce emissions with an impact on cli- mate change. There are several authorities to which those with an interest can turn for information on climate change, effects to combat climate change, energy issues etc. Swedish and international climate- related news is distributed through newsletters, con- tributing to broad media interest in climate change issues. Non-governmental organisations and study associations also contribute to public debate and knowledge on the issue of climate change. Climate change, its causes and its effects are thoroughly fa- miliar today to the general public.

Pre-schools, schools and adult education in Sweden have a remit to contribute to socially, economically and ecologically sustainable development. Training and knowledge transfer at seminars have an important role to play in climate efforts in both authorities and companies. Training on the environment and climate often forms part of the work of companies on envi- ronmental certification. The number of public activi- ties with a climate focus has increased steadily since 2005. Several authorities have purposefully expand- ed information on the Internet for households con- cerning climate change and what can be done about it. There are good opportunities in Sweden to ask questions and express views on an area of knowledge or a political proposal through consultation proce- dures, open meetings/hearings and seminars. Special measures have been taken to disseminate experience gained in Swedish climate strategy internationally.

The attitudes of the Swedish people and their knowledge of the problem of climate change have been studied by conducting surveys since 2002. The results indicate a gradual rise in awareness of climate change over the years, and provide a picture of the preparedness and willingness of the Swedish popula- tion for change in order to reduce emissions associ- ated with their own lifestyle and consumption.

An information effort was made in 2006-2008 with the aim of increasing knowledge of the causes and consequences of climate change, passing on the latest research findings on the topic and identifying ways of reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

To foster knowledge building locally, public educa- tion and information initiatives relating to the prob- lem of climate change have been a mandatory require- ment in order to be awarded government investment grants for local-authority climate change measures.

14 1. Summary

1. Summary	15

2National circumstances

2.1Government structure

Sweden is a parliamentary and representative de- mocracy governed by a government led by a Prime Minister. The Government is appointed by a popu- larly elected parliament, the Riksdag, elected every four years. The Riksdag is the legislative body, and controls the Government and government agencies. Political decisions, such as national climate policy and energy policy, have to be approved by parliament. The Government has to implement parliamentary decisions, submit new bills to Parliament, direct state administrative activity and represent Sweden in the European Union.

Swedish state administration is organised at central, regional and local levels. The central level consists of a number of authorities whose task is to be the Gov- ernment’s expert body and implement policies adopt- ed by the Riksdag and Government. For regional and local administration there are 21 county administra- tive boards and 290 municipalities, and certain central government agencies have regional offices. Swedish municipalities have their own self-government whose board and municipal council are elected by the citi- zens of the municipality in separate elections.

With regard to implementation of the commit- ments under the United Nations Framework Con- vention on Climate Change it is the Riksdag, after discussions on Government bills, that decides and

the Government and government agencies that have responsibility for implementing decisions.

The county administrative boards and municipali- ties have a special role to play in climate-change policy by formulating and implementing plans for land use, energy management, transport and waste. Swedish municipalities have been very active in local Agenda 21 work, and many people are also actively involved with targets and action plans to limit greenhouse gas emissions and adapt society to climate change.

2.2Population profile

The population of Sweden at the end of 2007 was just under 9.2 million, 23 per cent of whom were under 19 and 17 per cent were over 65 years of age.The an- nual average increase in population has been 0.4 per cent since 1990, with a more rapid increase during the 2000s. It is estimated that the population will rise to 10 million by 2030. The population density averages 22 inhabitants per km2 but ranges between 3 inhabit- ants per km2 in Northern Sweden and 100 inhabitants per km2 in the south of the country1. [Table 2.1]

An increasing population is contributing to a rise in consumption of energy, foods etc., resulting in in- creased greenhouse gas emissions, and the population trend during the 2000s has driven increased emis- sions. Sweden’s low population density means many

Table 2.1 Sweden’s population profile with projections2

							% annual	% annual
							increase	increase			2030
	1990	2000	2005	2006	2007	2008	2090-2005	2005-2007	2010	2020	2030
Population (mill.)	8.59	8.88	9.05	9.11	9.18	9.26	0.4	0.7	9.35	9.74	10.225
Aged 0-19 (% of population)	24.3	24.1	23.7	23.5	23.5	23.6			23.5	22.8	22.5
Aged >65 (% of population)	17.8	17.2	17.3	17.3	17.5	17.8			18.5	21.0	22.9
Population density (inh./km2)	21.0	21.7	22.1	22.2	22.4	22.6			22.9	24.0	24.9

1 Statistics Sweden, BE 12 SM 0501.

2 Statistics Sweden, Sweden’s future population 2009-2060, Statistics Sweden Demographic Reports 2009:1.

16 2. National circumstances

long journeys and a weak base for rail travel, and con- tributes to a high proportion of greenhouse emissions from road traffic.

2.3Geographic profile

Sweden extends in a south-south-westerly/north- north-easterly direction between 55 and 69 degrees latitude north and between 11 and 23 degrees lon- gitude east, with a total area of 450 295 km2, of which 91 per cent is land and 9 per cent is water3. The breakdown of the total land area over the period 2004-2008 was forest land 70 per cent, barren land 12 per cent, other wooded land 5 per cent and oth- er land 13 per cent4. Southern Sweden is low-lying, with agricultural land dominating in the far south. The only real mountain chain, with peaks rising to just over 2000 metres above sea level, is in the north- west, along the Norwegian border.

Land uplift is taking place in most of Sweden as a result of the melting of the massive land ice of the last ice age, but in the southernmost part of the country uplift has come to a halt. The ongoing rise in sea level is therefore leading to substantial coast- al erosion along Sweden’s southern coast where the land consists of easily eroded soils. Climate change as a consequence of future increased atmospheric tem- perature will strengthen this erosion.

Forest is an important natural resource that provides the basis for biobased energy supply. Over the past 50 years agricultural land has been successively convert- ed to other land use, principally forest land, and this has contributed to reduced emissions from agriculture and increased carbon sequestration in forest biomass. In addition to forest, iron ore is an important natural resource and a basis of Swedish industrial production. An ample supply of flowing watercourses is a signifi- cant asset for the production of hydropower.

2.4Climate profile

Sweden’s proximity to the northern Atlantic and prevailing south-westerly to westerly winds result in a, for the latitude, mild climate during the winter months, but the northernmost part of the country has a sub-Arctic climate with long, cold, and snowy winters. Over the period 1961-1990 the average temperature in January was 0°C in the southern- most part of the country, while the coldest valleys in northern Sweden had an average temperature of –17°C. In July the maximum average 24-hour tem- perature was around +17°C in South-Eastern Swe- den and just over 10°C in the north

3 Statistics SwedenCB, Markanvändningen i Sverige (Land Use in Sweden), 2008.

4 Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU), Skogsdata 2009, fördelning enligt internationell definition (Forest Data 2009, breakdown according to international definition).

5 Statistics Sweden, Markanvändningen i Sverige (Land use in Sweden), 2008.

Passing low-pressure systems result in fairly abun- dant precipitation which falls throughout the year, although most heavily in the summer and autumn. Annual precipitation is around 1000 mm. As most low-pressure systems move in across the country from the west or south-west, the western parts of the country receive the heaviest precipitation. In the mountains close to the Norwegian border there are local annual precipitation levels of 1500-2000 mm. The lowest annual precipitation is along the eastern coasts, with just under 400 mm per year.

Over the period 1991-2007 the average tem- perature was around one degree higher than in the period 1961-1990. The increase was greatest during the winter at just over two degrees in the central and northern parts of the country. The increase was least during the autumn, with an almost unchanged temperature in south-western Sweden. As a conse- quence of the rise in temperature the densely popu- lated areas, including Stockholm, have seen a shift from a cold-temperate to a warm-temperate cli- mate, which reduces the frequency of winters bring- ing heavy snowfalls. The winter of 2007/08 was the warmest of all winters since 1858/59 in south-east- ern Sweden. Precipitation has increased somewhat in most of the country. [Fig. 2.1-3]

Very severe storms with extensive uprooting of trees are rare, and it is difficult to identify trends for these. However, in January 2005 a storm with hurricane-force winds occurred in southern Sweden with by far the greatest number of uprooted trees in the past hundred years. Just two years later, south- ern Sweden was struck by another powerful storm. These storms are resulting in a temporary decrease in carbon sequestration in forest biomass.

The relatively cold climate entails a great need for energy for the heating of buildings during the great- er part of the year, with subsequent greenhouse gas emissions. The need for heating is dependent on out- door temperature, wind conditions and solar radia- tion, and varies from year to year. An energy index which takes account of these properties and is weighted according to the geographical distribution of the population provides a picture of how the need for heating has fluctuated from year to year. 1990 and 2000 were very warm, with a need for heating which was 13-14 per cent lower than the average for the ref- erence period 1965-1995.The only year to date since 1990 with a greater need for heating (+4 per cent) than for the reference period is 1996. [Fig. 2.4]

Annual precipitation and runoff to the large rivers in north-western Sweden are of great significance for inflow of water to Swedish hydropower production.

2. National circumstances	17

°C	%
1.2		120
1.0		110
0.8		100
0.6		90
0.6		90

Figure 2.1 Difference in annual mean temperature 1991-2007 compared with the period 1961-1990 (°C)

Figure 2.2 The figures show how the winter of 2007/08 for different parts of Sweden ranks among the warmest winters since 1858/59

Figure 2.3 Relationship between annual precipitation 1991-2007 and the period 1961-1990 (%)

Hydropower accounts for almost half of Swedish elec- tricity production. The deficit of electricity in years of low inflow to hydropower production (see Figure 2.5) during the 1990s was offset by domestic fossil fuel- based electricity generation.The shortfall in the 2000s and in years of low inflow and low hydropower pro- duction has been made up for by importing electricity.

An average of 66.5 TWh hydropower per year was produced over the period 1990-2007. No significant expansion of production capacity took place in this period. 1996 was a year with a high need for heating and low water inflow/hydropower production (24 per cent compared with the average for 1990-2007),

leading to higher carbon dioxide emissions than for a normal year. In 1990 and 2000 there was instead a low need for heating, relatively high hydropower production and relatively low carbon dioxide emis- sions. In addition to 1996, 2003 was also a year of ex- tremely low hydropower production.There was gen- erally low water inflow over the period 2002-2007 with the exception of 2005.

2.5Economy

Sweden’s gross domestic product adjusted for pur- chasing power parity, measured at 2000 price lev-

Standardised value

1.05
1.00
0.95
0.90
0.85
1990	1992	1994	1996	1998	2000	2002	2004	2006	2008

Figure 2.4 Energy index6 weighted according to the geograph- ical distribution of the population shows how the annual need for heating varied in Sweden over the period 1990-2007.

	90																	1200
	80																	1000
	70																	1000
Hydropower (TWh)	70
	60																	800	Runoff (mm)
	50																	600
	40																	600
	40
	30																	400
	20																	200
	10																	200
	10
	0																	0
	1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007
		Hydropower			Runoff

Figure 2.5 Runoff to rivers in north-west Sweden and hydro- power production in 1990-20077.

6 The energy index weighs together the effects on the heating needs of buildings during a year of sun, wind, temperature and the energy-related characteristics of buildings.

7 Sources: Runoff data from Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, regional analysis of climate, water supply and high flow rates (2008);

hydropower data from Swedish Energy Agency, Energiläget 2008 (Energy in Sweden 2008).

18 2. National circumstances

Table 2.2 Macroeconomic data for Sweden in real terms (2000 price level)8

							Growth 1990-	Growth 2005-
	1990	1995	2000	2005	2006	2007	2007 (%/year)	2007 (%/year)
GDP (SEKm)	1846361	1909251	2249987	2552597	2660992	2729106	2.33	3.40
GDP (USDm 2000 PPP)	201854	208730	245981	279064	290914	298361
GDP per capita (SEK)	214927	216040	253297	282125	291991	298329	1.93	2.73
GDP per capita (USD 2000 PPP)	23497	23619	27692	30843	31922	32615
Imports (SEKm)	523621	599073	906984	1042362	1132639	1239455	5.20	9.05
Exports (SEKm)	499364	683048	1047940	1316073	1432897	1515733	6.75	7.32
Private consumption	955080	946003	1112316	1231230	1259957	1298037	1.82	2.68
Public consumption	538917	563245	585120	605919	618051	620488	0.83	1.20

els, totalled USD 300 billion (SEK 2 730 billion in 2007), which on a per capita basis is USD 32 600 (SEK 300 000). Production of services and goods ac- counted for 43 per cent and 28 per cent respectively of GDP. The share of agriculture in GDP is approxi- mately 1 per cent, which is low compared with other countries.

The economy has grown by an average of 2.3 per cent annually since 1990, with the greatest rate of growth in the periods 1994-1995, 1998-2000 and 2004-2006, with an annual average rate of growth of 4–4.5 per cent.

Natural assets such as forest and iron ore are a basis of industrial production and together with the engi- neering industry have led to an export-oriented econ- omy. Exports have grown more than imports since 1990, and the balance of trade has been in surplus since 1993. [Table 2.2]

Table 2.3 Total primary energy supply 1990-2007

	1990	1995	2000	2005	2006	2007
Total primary energy	576	599	581	639	622	624
supply (TPES) (TWh)
TPES (MWh) per	67.1	67.8	65.4	70.6	68.3	68.0
capita

2.6Energy

2.6.1 Energy use

Primary energy use in Sweden has totalled between 620 and 650 TWh since 2001. A large proportion consists of nuclear-power conversion and distribution losses. [Table 2.3]

Total final energy use has increased by 8 per cent since 1990 and in the past 5 years has been approxi- mately 400TWh.Despite the marginal increase there have been some changes. Production volume in in- dustry has almost doubled, but industrial energy use has only risen by just over 10 per cent. The increase in energy use has been accounted for by electricity and heating. Energy use in the residential and serv- ice sector has decreased despite an overall increase in total heated floor area in residential and commer- cial buildings. Increased globalisation of trade has in- creased energy use by transport. [Fig. 2.6]

There is no recovery of oil, natural gas or coal in Sweden. The total primary energy supply is princi- pally based on domestic supply of biofuels, hydro- power, nuclear power and, to a lesser extent, ambi- ent heat for heat pumps and imports of oil, natural gas, coal and biofuels.

An energy policy was introduced from the early 1970s to make Sweden less dependent on oil.Almost 40 per cent of oil products have been replaced by

TWh
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1970	1975	1980	1985	1990	1995	2000	-04-05-06-07

Figure 2.6 Total primary energy use in Sweden 1970-20079

8 OECD and Statistics Sweden, National accounts 1980-2008.

9 Swedish Energy Agency, Energiläget 2008 (Energy in Sweden 2008).

International transport and use for non-energy purposes

Losses in nuclear power Conversion and distribution losses

Domestic transport

Residential and service

Industry

2. National circumstances	19

TWh
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1970	1975	1980	1985	1990	1995	2000	-04-05-06-07

Figure 2.7 Swedish energy supply 1970-2007, excl. net exports

Nuclear power gross

Hydropower

Heat pumps in combined heat and power plants

Biofuels

Coal

Natural gas, gasworks gas

Oil products

non-fossil energy supply, and with national incen- tives the share of bioenergy has risen to 20 per cent. [Fig. 2.7]

A major change has taken place in energy supply for homes and commercial premises. A consistent and sustained policy to expand the infrastructure for district heating and district-heating distribution was pursued from the late 1960s until the mid-1990s. The principal motive is to replace many small heat- ing installations with large centralised installations for the heating of buildings was to improve air quality in towns and cities. The infrastructure for district heat- ing has been crucially important for environmentally sound heating of buildings based on biofuels. It has also been essential in enabling the national policy in- struments for renewable energy to cause the extensive phasing-out of fossil fuels for the heating of buildings.

Production of district heating has risen by 370 per cent since 1970 and rose by 32 per cent between 1990 and 2007.At the same time, the share of biofu- els in production increased from 2 per cent to 25 per cent and to 70 per cent over the period 1970-1990- 2007. Between 2004 and 2007 this share increased by 14 percentage points. [Fig. 2.8]

In addition to the substantial change-over from indi- vidual heating of buildings to district heating and the change-over from fossil energy to bioenergy for dis- trict-heating production, a conversion has taken place from oil to heat pumps or pellets in remaining individ- ual heating of homes and commercial premises.

The share of renewable energy in Sweden since 1990 has risen by 10 percentage points, to 44 per cent in 2007. The principal contributions are made by hydropower, the use of by-products in the paper and pulp industry and biofuels for district-heating production. [Fig. 2.9]

The price of fuel oil and coal has risen 65-70 per cent since 2000, while the price of woodchips has remained stable at a low level. Carbon dioxide and energy taxes have a significant impact on fossil-fu- el prices, which has contributed to making biofuels competitive for heating production in district heat- ing and for individual heating. [Fig. 2.10]

2.6.2 Electricity supply

Hydropower accounted for 45 per cent, nuclear pow- er for 44 per cent, biobased electricity for 6 per cent,

TWh
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1970	1975	1980	1985	1990	1995	2000	-04-05-06-07

Waste heat etc.

Heat pumps in district heating plants Electric boiler

Biofuels, waste, peat etc.

Energy coal incl. blast-furnace gas Natural gas incl. LPG

Oil products

Figure 2.8 Energy input for district heating 1970-2007

20 2. National circumstances

fossil-based electricity for 3 per cent and wind power for 1 per cent of power production in 2007. Pow- er production in the early 1970s was dominated by hydropower with additions of oil-condensing pow- er. The expansion of nuclear power and to some ex- tent hydropower by 1985 largely eliminated the use of oil for power production. The use of oil for elec-

Per cent
45
40
35
30
25
1991	1993	1995	1997	1999	2001	2003	2005	2007

Figure 2.9 Proportion of renewable energy sources in Sweden

1990-2007
Öre/kWH
150
100
50
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Electricity	Eo1	District heating	Coal	Woodchip

Figure 2.10 Energy prices in Sweden including taxes, in real terms at 2007 price level

tricity production has subsequently continued to de- crease, except for 1996 – a cold year with extremely low water inflow for hydropower production – when decommissioned oil-condensing power plants were temporarily brought into production. Naturally good availability of watercourses for hydropower produc- tion, combined with national energy policy and in- vestments in nonfossilfuel-based electricity produc- tion, have resulted in almost entirely fossil-free elec- tricity production in Sweden. [Fig. 2.11]

Electricity use between 1970 and 1987 increased by 5 per cent per year, after which the rate of increase dropped to an average of 0.3 per cent per year. Con- sumption since 2000 has fluctuated between 145 and 150 TWh. The Swedish electricity system is linked to other Nordic countries, which makes it possible for the Nordic electric power installations to be uti- lised efficiently. Sweden’s annual electricity balance consequently alternates between net imports and net exports. The deficit in years of low precipitation and therefore low hydropower production and when nu- clear power cannot be produced at normal capacity is offset today by electricity imports.When Sweden has good hydropower and nuclear power supply, elec- tricity is exported to neighbouring countries. In the

TWh
13
11
9
7
5
3
1
-1
-3
-5
-7
-9
-11
-13
-70	-75	-80	-85	-90	-95	-00	-05 -07

Figure 2.12 Swedish annual net imports (+) and net exports

(-) of electricity 1970-2007

TWh
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1970	1975	1980	1985	1990	1995	2000	-04-05-06-07

Figure 2.11 Swedish electricity production by type of power plant 1970-200710

10 Swedish Energy Agency, Energiläget 2008 (Energy in Sweden 2008).

Hydro and wind power

Wind power (from 1997)

Nuclear power

CHP in industry

CHP

Condensing power

Gas turbines

2. National circumstances	21

1990s hydropower and nuclear power deficits were offset by oil-based condensing power. [Fig. 2.12]

2.7Building stock and urban structure

2.7.1 Building stock and residential floor space

The heated area of buildings in 2006 totalled 670 million m2. There were 2 030 000 individual houses and 2 440 000 apartments in multi-dwelling build- ings11. 78 per cent of the present-day housing stock was built before 198012.

The number of apartments increased by 12 per cent and the number of individual houses by 8 per cent over the period 1990-2007. The average resi- dential floor space for newly built individual houses increased from 95 m2 to 125 m2 over the period 1990 to 2006. Average residential floor space for all individual houses was 110 m2 in 2006. Average resi- dential floor space rose from 41 m2 to just over 56 m2 on a per-capita basis between 1990 and 200613. [Fig 2.13]

In 2007 there were 90 400 industrial buildings in Sweden, together making up a total floor space of 126.7 million m2. Of this figure, 25.2 million m2 was added over the period 1990-2006. In 2006 there was 155 million m2 of premises, heated floor space.

2.7.2 Energy use in buildings

Final energy use in the residential and service sector, which is dominated by energy for heating, decreased between 1990 and 2007, even after normal-year cor- rection of energy use. On the other hand, the use of electricity for household purposes and electricity for common purposes has increased.

The way in which individual houses are heated changed between 1990 and 2006. Around a third of individual houses have electric heating only. Oil and various heating combinations with oil have de- creased and been replaced by heat pumps and pure biofuel heating. The proportion heated by district heating increased up to 2002 and then stabilised.

District heating dominates for multi-dwelling build- ings with 76 per cent of heated floor space, and the proportion for commercial premises was 59 per cent. Oil has almost completely ceased to be used for the heating of multi-dwelling buildings. [Fig. 2.14-15]

The average energy efficiency of newly produced individual houses has improved. An average of 107 kWh/m2 is used in individual houses built during the period 2001-2006, compared with 130 kWh/m2 in individual houses built in 1991-2000. Energy use in

11 Statistics Sweden, 2009, Bostads och byggnadsstatistisk årsbok (Housing and building statistics yearbook) 2009.

12 General assessment of real estate in 2006 (www.scb.se), statistical database. 13 Statistics Sweden, BO 23 SM 0801.

22 2. National circumstances

m2
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1990-1994	1995-1999	2000-2004	2005-2006

Figure 2.13 Average residential floor space for individual houses by year of construction14

Proportion %	1990	2002	2006
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0

heating

Electricity

Oil

Biofuel

-source/

(oil/electric)

(oil/bio)bio, electric)

District

(ground

-heat)(bio/electric)

Combi

(oil,

pump

-source/soilCombi

Combi

Heat

water

Figure 2.14 Energy for heating in individual houses 1990

to 200615
Proportion %		1990	2002	2006
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0	district	common		oil-fired	other
electric	district	common		oil-fired	other
heating	heating		furnace	boiler	(combined)

Figure 2.15 Energy for heating in individual houses 1990

to 200616
kWh/m2	Individual houses	Multi-dwelling buildings	Commercial premises
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0	1981-1990	1991-2000	2001-2006
	1981-1990	1991-2000	2001-2006

Figure 2.16 Energy use for heating in homes and commer- cial buildings constructed 1981-1990, 1991-2000, 2001- 200617

14 Statistics Sweden, Allmän fastighetstaxering 2006 (General assessment of real estate in 2006) (www.scb.se), Statistisk databas (Statistical database).

15 Statistics Sweden, 2009, Bostads och byggnadsstatistisk årsbok (Housing and building statistics yearbook) 2009.

16 Statistics Sweden, 2009, Bostads och byggnadsstatistisk årsbok (Housing and building statistics yearbook) 2009.

17 Swedish Energy Agency, Energistatistik för småhus 2007 (Energy statistics for indi- vidual houses 2007), ES 2009:01, Energistatistik för flerbostadshus 2006 (Energy statistics for multi-dwelling buildings 2006), EN 16 SM 0702, Energistatistik för lokaler 2006 (Energy statistics for commercial premises 2006), EN 16 SM 0703.

new multi-dwelling buildings is 126 kWh/m2, which is equal to that in multi-dwelling buildings built during the 1980s and 1990s. [Fig. 2.16]

2.7.3 Urban structure

As in other countries, migration from rural to urban areas is taking place in Sweden. In 2005, 84 per cent of the population were living in urban areas. The ur- ban land area totalled 528 623 ha, representing 1.3 per cent of the total land area of Sweden18.

The urban land area increased by 54 per cent and the urban population by 40 per cent between 1960 and 2005, which means that more land per person is being used for housing, infrastructure and services. However, between 2000 and 2005 the increase in the population of urban areas was somewhat greater than the expansion in land area, 2.2 per cent com- pared with an increase in land area of 1.2 per cent.

2.8Industry

The industrial sector accounted for just under 30 per cent of GDP in 2007. The added value in the engi- neering industry is by far the highest, followed by the building industry and the chemical industry. In- dustry in Sweden is notable for being more based on raw materials than in many other countries, for ex- ample an extensive forest industry (wood products, paper and pulp) and iron and steel industry based on domestic natural resources which have a significant impact on the country’s greenhouse gas emissions. [Fig. 2.17]

The impact of industry on greenhouse gas emis- sions comes principally from its energy use and from process emissions in the mineral products industry and the iron and steel industry. Industry account- ed for just under 40 per cent of the country’s final energy use in 2007, broken down into 36 per cent electricity, 35 per cent biofuels, 26 per cent fossil

	Other industry	Iron and steel
	10%	4%
	10%	Chemical industry
	Foods	9%
	5%
	Building industry
	13%
	Wood products
	3%	Engineering
	Paper and pulp	industry
	Paper and pulp	48%
	6%	48%
	6%

Earth and stone 2%

Figure 2.17 Breakdown of the added value of industry, 2007

18 Statistics Sweden, Markanvändningen i Sverige (Land Use in Sweden), 2008.

ktonnes
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

CO2 emissions		Crude iron production		Crude steel production

Figure 2.18 Pig iron, crude steel production and carbon di- oxide emissions related to the iron and steel industry, 1990- 2007.

energy and 3 per cent district heating. The paper and pulp industry accounts for nearly half the total energy consumption of industry, principally in the form of electricity and black liquors.

The iron and steel mills have a significant impact on Swedish greenhouse gas emissions as 14 per cent of the country’s total carbon dioxide emissions in 2007 originate from this industry. The emissions come principally from pig iron and crude steel pro- duction (process emissions, combustion, coke oven plants, flaring and residual gases). Most of the resid- ual gases from coke furnaces and blast furnaces are used for electricity production, internal heat supply and district heating for homes and commercial premises. Iron and steel production and emissions increased between 1996 and 2004.Variations in pro- duction then occurred, and emissions have followed these. Production for 2008 fell by 7 per cent in con- nection with the global financial crisis. [Fig. 2.18]

2.9Transport

Domestic transport is dominated by road transport. Several factors influence greenhouse gas emissions from traffic, principally transport volume and what technology is used. Except for a brief period in the early 1990s, distance travelled in both passenger and freight transport has increased since 1990.This trend was stronger in the period 2004 to 2007 than the average since 1990, and the increase in freight trans- port was particularly sharp. [Fig. 2.19-20]

The rapid increase in passenger travel has been offset for greenhouse gas emissions by more energy- efficient cars and increased use of renewable fuels, which have meant that emissions per passenger-kilo- metre have decreased.The efficiency of freight trans-

2. National circumstances	23

Billion passengerkm
140
120
100
80													Total
80													Road traffic
													Road traffic
60													Rail traffic
													Walking, cycling, moped
40													Domestic aviation
20
0
1970	1972	1974	1976	1978	1980	1982	1984	1986	1988	1990	1992	1994	1996	1998	2000	2002	2004	2006	2008

Figure 2.19 Trend in passenger transport mileage 1970 –
200819
Billion tonneskm
120
100
80															Total
															Total
															Road traffic
60															Shipping
															Rail traffic
40
20
0
1970	1972	1974	1976	1978	1980	1982	1984	1986	1988	1990	1992	1994	1996	1998	2000	2002	2004	2006	2008

Figure 2.20 Trend in freight transport mileage 1970 – 2008

port also improved in the 1990s, but this trend came to a halt, and in the 2000s the energy use and carbon dioxide emissions of freight transport have increased with transport mileage.

Green cars, which are either energy-efficient cars with carbon dioxide emissions below 120 g/km or flexible-fuel vehicles that can run on renewable fuels, have taken an increasingly large share of new-car sales in Sweden. The share of green cars in sales rose from 18 per cent in 2007 to 33 per cent in 2008. Ethanol vehicles account for 70 per cent of green cars20.

The share of green cars in the total car fleet is still limited, however, just over 200 000 at the end of 2008 out of a total of around 4.8 million light-duty vehicles. [Table 2.4]

Petrol and diesel accounted for 89 per cent of fuel use by transport in 2007. The use of petrol has been decreasing since 2002, partly as a result of the ad- mixture of 5 per cent in petrol but also increased energy efficiency and the fact that diesel cars have taken market shares from petrol cars in new-vehicle sales. More diesel cars and increased freight transport have meant that use of diesel is increasing instead.

19 SIKA, Uppföljning av det transportpolitiska målet och dess delmål (Follow-up of the transport policy objective and its interim targets), Report 2008:1; SIKA statistics for transport mileage.

20 BilSweden 2009, Newly registered green cars in December 2008.

24 2. National circumstances

Table 2.4 Number of green cars on the road 2000-200821

	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008
Light-duty vehicles
Electric cars	450	400	360	320	310	280
Electric hybrid	620	1350	3300	6100	9400	13500
cars
Fuel-efficient	1260	2080	2300	7300	20000	42000
120 g CO2
Gas cars	3440	4500	6600	10500	12900	15000
Ethanol cars	7980	13300	21400	46700	81300	138000
Heavy-duty vehicles
Ethanol buses	400	380	370	490	490	510
Gas buses,	680	780	900	1120	1160	1300
trucks
Electric and	17	18	13	9	10	10
fuel cell

Renewable fuels (ethanol, FAME and biogas) ac- counted for just under 5 per cent of energy use by road traffic in 2008. There has been a rapid increase during the 2000s, initially through low admixture of ethanol in petrol, then increased sales of E85 for flexible-fuel ethanol cars and since 2005 increased admixture of biodiesel in diesel fuel. [Fig. 2.21]

The source for the 2008 ethanol use of 420 000 m3 was around 75 per cent Brazilian sugar-cane ethanol, 15 per cent domestically produced etha- nol (based on wheat and cellulose) and the rest im- ported from other EU Member States. The biodiesel used is mostly produced in Sweden but is based on imported vegetable oil, from Denmark among other countries.

2.10 Waste

Approximately 124 million tonnes of waste were generated in Sweden in 2006. The largest types of waste were mineral waste, at 70 million tonnes (of

Twh
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007
						Petrol			Diesel		Biofuel

Figure 2.21 Use of petrol, diesel and biofuels by road traffic in Sweden

21 www.miljofordon.se.

Kg/cap
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007

Hazardous waste

Materials recovery

Biological treatment

Incineration with energy recovery

Landfilling

Figure 2.22 Treated quantity of household waste per capita in Sweden 1994-2007

which mining waste 62 million tonnes), wood waste 22 million tonnes and wastewater sludge from in- dustry 4.5 million tonnes. Nearly half the waste is generated in the mining industry. Household waste accounts for a smaller portion of the total amounts. Household waste in 2007 totalled 4.7 tonnes, which is equivalent to 514 kg per person. The quantity of household waste has increased by 13 per cent since 2003. The increase is greatly affected by economic development, with a clear correlation between in- creased growth and increased quantities of waste. Increased quantities of waste mean that increasing volumes of waste have to be disposed of. Howev- er, the environmental impact of waste management has diminished as a result of the material and energy content in the waste having been utilised to a great- er degree and waste management technology having improved.

Landfilling of waste has continued to decrease, and between 2003 and 2007 the landfilling of household waste fell by nearly 70 per cent. Today less than five per cent of household waste is sent to landfill. The remainder is sent for materials recovery, is inciner- ated with energy recovery or is treated biologically. If industrial and operational waste (not mining waste) is also included, just over half goes to materials re- covery, just over a third is incinerated with energy recovery and eight per cent goes to landfill. In ad- dition to conventional materials recovery of metal, paper, plastic and glass, materials recovery includes composting and digestion, as well as the use of waste for construction purposes. [Fig. 2.22]

The biological treatment of waste is increasing. In 2006 there were 22 composting plants and 15 digestion plants. Approximately 15 per cent of in- coming substrate for the digestion plants is food waste, the remainder being made up of waste from

the food industry and manure. Smaller amounts of food waste are also received at sewage treatment plants for digestion. Both biogas and biofertiliser are obtained in the digestion of waste. The biogas is principally used as a vehicle fuel. The market for vehicle fuel is developing strongly. Of the quantity of biofertiliser produced, 96 per cent is returned to agriculture.

Materials recovery from household has increased by a third since 2003, and in 2007 just under 1.7 million tonnes (37 per cent) of household waste was recovered. [Table 2.5]

Table 2.5 Quantities of recovered household waste 2007

(tonnes)

Newspapers, magazines, paper and packaging	1 397 500
Electronic waste	129 700
Refrigerators and freezers	30 500
Metal	180 000

The incineration of waste for energy recovery is in- creasing. In 2007 there were 30 incineration plants outside industry. These plants produce district heat- ing and electricity. Half the need for heating in the Swedish building stock today is met by district heat- ing, and waste incineration accounts for just over 20 per cent (in terms of TWh) of the fuel supply.

The collection of methane gas from landfills takes place at around 60 active and about 10 closed-down landfills. A total of 342 GWh of landfill gas was col- lected in 2007 and used for heating, electricity pro- duction and vehicle fuel. Landfill gas is flared to some extent to reduce the impact on the greenhouse effect.

Reduced landfilling of waste and collection of landfill gas are factors that have contributed to lower greenhouse gas emissions from the waste sector. In-

2. National circumstances	25

creased materials recovery generally means that both energy and material are saved, which reduces emis- sions. In addition, waste incineration with energy uti- lisation leads to limitation of the use of fossil fuels in the electricity and heating sector.

2.11 Agriculture

The total area of agricultural land in Sweden in 2007 was 3.4 million hectares, which is equivalent to around 8 per cent of the total land area of the coun-

Table 2.6 Breakdown of agricultural land for farms with more than 2 hectares of arable land (thousands of hectares)

	1990	1995	2000	2004	2005	2006	2007
Forage crops and green fodder	918	1 059	921	971	1 080	1 113	1 142
Cereals	1336	1 105	1 229	1 126	1 024	978	990
Set-aside	176	279	248	268	321	307	281
Rape and turnip rape	168	105	48	84	82	90	88
Potatoes	36	35	33	32	30	28	28
Sugar beet	50	58	56	48	49	44	41
Legumes	..	21	37	43	41	36	29
Other crops	..	46	55	46	42	41	40
Unspecified arable land	..	..	80	30	32	21	8
Unutilised arable land	46	60	..	14	2	2	2

Total acreage of arable land	2 845	2 767	2 706	2 661	2 703	2 660	2 648
Grazing land and hay meadows	332	425	..	523	513	503	488
Total acreage of agricultural land	3176	3 192	..	3184	3 216	3 163	3 136

Table 2.7 Crop production in Sweden (tonnes)

	1990	2007	Change (000 tonnes)	Change,%
Forage crops and green fodder	5219000	4154300	-1064700	-20
Cereals	6211300	5057600	-1153700	-19
Rape and turnip rape	380110	222400	-157710	-41
Potatoes	1186100	789000	-397100	-33
Sugar beet	2775500	2137700	-637800	-23
Total production of crops	15772010	12361000	-3411010	-21

Table 2.8 Number of livestock, thousands

	1990	1995	2000	2004	2005	2006	2007
Dairy cows	576	482	428	404	393	388	370
Cows for rearing of calves	75	157	167	172	177	178	186
Total cows	651	639	595	576	570	566	556
Heifers, bulls and steers	543	596	589	539	527	530	516
Calves below 1 year	524	542	500	514	509	496	489
Total cattle	1 718	1 777	1 684	1 629	1 606	1 592	1 561
Ewes and rams	161	195	198	220	222	244	242
Lambs	244	266	234	246	249	262	267
Total sheep and lambs	405	461	432	466	471	506	509
Sows and gilts	230	245	206	195	188	187	181
Pigs for slaughter	1025	1 300	1 146	1 095	1 085	1 002	1 015
Piglets	1009	768	566	528	538	492	480
Total pigs	2 264	2 313	1 918	1 818	1 811	1 681	1 676
Horses				283

Table 2.9 Livestock production in Sweden (tonnes)

	1990	2007	Change (000 tonnes)	Change,%
Milk	3432000	2986000	-446000	-13
Beef	143780	133500	-10280	-7
Pigmeat	289150	264900	-24250	-8
Mutton, lamb	4880	4600	-280	-6

Table 2.10 Sale of mineral fertiliser expressed as nitrogen nutrient (thousands of tonnes)

	1999/00	2000/01	2003/04	2004/05	2005/06	2006/07
Nitrogen (N)	189,4	196,9	176,2	161,6	160,3	167,1

26 2. National circumstances

try. Agricultural land contains both arable and graz- ing land. The arable acreage has decreased by around 7 per cent since 1990. The trend towards fewer and larger agricultural enterprises has been in progress for many decades, and continued in 1990-2007. Arable land is predominantly used for the cultivation of for- age crops, green fodder and cereals. The growing of forage and green fodder crops has increased at the ex- pense of cereal cultivation since 2000. Set-aside land has increased, and total crop production has decreased by around 20 per cent since 1990. [Table 2.6-7]

In 2007 there were just under 1.6 million cattle, 0.5 million sheep and lambs and 1.7 million pigs.The number of cattle has fallen steadily since the 1980s and declined by 9 per cent over the period 1990- 1007. It is the number of dairy cows that has de- creased sharply, while cows for the rearing of calves have increased in number. Sheep and lamb produc- tion has increased, particularly over the period 2003- 2006. The number of pigs is continuing to decline and has fallen by 12 per cent since 2003. Thanks to increased productivity, milk production has not decreased by anything like the same extent as the number of dairy cows. [Table 2.8-9]]

Total use of mineral fertiliser has decreased over a long period, and in 2005/2006 was at its lowest level since the 1960s.With rising cereal prices in 2007 some upturn can be seen when it became cost-effective to increase fertiliser application. The reduction in use of mineral fertiliser is principally related to reduced cereal cultivation. The result in terms of greenhouse gas emissions has been lower release of nitrous oxide. [Table 2.10]

The arable acreage, number of cattle and use of mineral fertiliser and manure has decreased since 1990, resulting in reduced methane and nitrous oxide emissions.

2.12 Forestry

The total area of forest land in Sweden is 28.4 mil- lion hectares22, which is equivalent to 70 per cent of the land area of the country. It is for this land area that greenhouse gas emissions and removals in the forests are reported. Forest land is owned 48 per cent by individual owners, 29 per cent by private limited companies and other private owners and 23 per cent by central and local government.

4.4 million hectares of forest land are protected. The acreage of productive forest land23 is 23.5 mil- lion hectares, of which 0.8 million hectares are pro- tected, mostly montane forests in national parks or nature reserves. Approximately 1.1 million hectares

22 Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU), Skogsdata (Forest Data) 2009. 23 Forest land with production capacity of at least 1 m3 timber per hectare per year.

out of the 22.7 million hectares that are not formally protected have, however, been voluntarily set aside for the purpose of preserving biodiversity.

Increased demand from the forest industry result- ed in a significant increase in forest felling over the period 1990-2007, and timber use reached a new record level in 2004-2007. There were wide varia- tions in felling between different years due to the two storms Gudrun (2005) and Per (2007).Gudrun, the worse of the two, brought down 80 per cent of the normal volume of annual felling in Sweden (Figure 2.23). Despite increased felling, the total timber stock has increased from around 2.8 billion m3 to 3.3 billion m3 since 1990.

Total use of biofuels from the forests excluding waste and recycled wood has increased by around 40 TWh since 1990 and now totals just over 100 TWh. The increase over the period 2004-2007 was of the order of 5 TWh. The area of regeneration felling where logging residuals are used for energy purposes was small in the early 1990s. It has since increased steadily and in 2007 totalled 60 000 hectares24. Ash is returned with the aim of counteracting the acidi- fying and nutrient-depleting effect in the ground of the harvesting of logging residuals. Ash return took place on around 9 000 hectares annually in 2007- 2008.

Million m3
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1990	1995	2000	2005	2010
		Growth	Felling

Figure 2.23 Estimated annual forest growth and annual for- est felling in Sweden25

24 Source: Swedish Forest Agency studies of measures.

25 Swedish Forest Agency, National Forest Survey.

2. National circumstances	27

3Greenhouse gas inventory 1990-2007

3.1Total emissions and removals

of greenhouse gases

Total greenhouse gas emissions in Sweden, calculat- ed as carbon dioxide equivalent, were 65.4 million tonnes in 2007 (excluding LULUCF). Emissions de- creased by around 6.5 million tonnes or 9.1 per cent between 1990 and 2007. Aggregated greenhouse gas emissions varied over the period 1999-2007 but in all cases were below the 1990 level.The information in this chapter is a summary of the 2009 reporting to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change on greenhouse gas inventories26. [Fig. 3.1]

The net sink for the land use, land-use change and forestry sector (LULUCF) was just under 21 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2007. The size of the sink varied over the period. [Fig. 3.2] GDP growth averaged 2.3 per cent over the peri- od 1990-2007. GDP fell during the early 1990s but since 1994 has averaged just over 3 per cent. Despite economic growth of almost 50 per cent since 1990,

Million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent 90

40
30
20
10
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Waste	Industrial processes
Agriculture	Transport
Solvents etc.	Energy

Figure 3.1 Total greenhouse gas emissions from different sectors

26 National Inventory Report 2009 Sweden.

Million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent	LULUCF
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
-35
-40
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Figure 3.2 Net removals of greenhouse gases from Land Use,

Land-Use Change and Forestry

it has been possible to reduce greenhouse gas emis- sions. Greenhouse gas emissions (excl. LULUCF) per capita have fallen from 8.4 tonnes 1990 to 7.1 tonnes in 2007. [Table. 3.1]

In 2007, emissions of carbon dioxide were 51.6 million tonnes (excl. LULUCF), which is equiva- lent to around 79 per cent of aggregated greenhouse gas emissions. Just over 90 per cent of carbon di- oxide emissions came from the energy and trans- port sectors. Emissions of methane come principal- ly from agriculture and waste and totalled 5.4 mil- lion carbon dioxide equivalent in 2007 (8 per cent of emissions). Emissions of nitrous oxide totalled 7.2 million tonnes, which is equivalent to 11 per cent of total emissions. Just over 70 per cent of nitrous oxide emissions come from the agricultural sector. Just under 2 per cent or 1.3 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent out of aggregated greenhouse gas emissions were emissions of fluorinated greenhouse gases. [Fig. 3.3]

28 3. Greenhouse gas inventory 1990-2007

Table 3.1 Greenhouse gas emissions per capita and GDP (real GDP at 2000 prices)

		1990	1995	2000	2004	2005	2006	2007
CO2	eq. (tonnes) per capita	8.4	8.3	7.7	7.7	7.4	7.3	7.1
CO2eq (kg) GDP (SEK)		0.039	0.039	0.030	0.028	0.026	0.025	0.024
CO2eq (kg)/GDP (USD PPP)		0.36	0.35	0.28	0.26	0.24	0.23	0.22
CO2	(tonnes) per capita	6.6	6.6	6.0	6.1	5.9	5.8	5.6
CO2	(kg)/GDP (SEK)	0.030	0.030	0.024	0.022	0.021	0.020	0.019
CO2	(kg)/GDP (USD PPP)	0.28	0.28	0.22	0.21	0.19	0.18	0.17

PPP= Purchasing Power Parity

Million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007
		CO2			CH4			N2O			Fluorinated greenhouse gases

Figure 3.3 Greenhouse gas emissions broken down by gas

3.2Emissions and removals of greenhouse gases per sector

The greatest emissions in 2007 were from the en- ergy, transport and industrial sectors. Emissions from the energy sector were equivalent to 42 per cent of total greenhouse gas emissions, of which energy sup- ply accounted for 16 per cent and industrial combus- tion for 16 per cent. Domestic transport accounted for 31 per cent of total greenhouse gas emissions and industrial processes for 10 per cent. [Fig. 3.4]

Emissions of greenhouse gases from different sec- tors of society developed in different directions over the period from 1990 to 2007. The greatest reduc- tions in emissions over the period took place in the residential and service, agriculture and waste sectors. Emissions have increased principally in the transport sector and in some industries. [Fig. 3.5]

3.2.1 Energy excluding transport

Emissions of greenhouse gases by the energy sector27 totalled just under 27 million tonnes of carbon diox- ide equivalent in 2007, which represents 42 per cent of total emissions. Carbon dioxide emissions dominate the energy sector’s emissions with 94 per cent, while

27 Emissions by the energy sector include emissions from the production of electricity and district heating, refineries, manufacture of solid fuels, industrial combustion, fugitive emissions and the residential and service sector, including combustion in agriculture, forestry and fisheries.

Agriculture		Waste
Agriculture		3%
13%		3%
13%			Energy supply
			Energy supply
Solvents				16%
Solvents
1%
Industrial processes
10%				Industrial
				Industrial
				combustion
				16%
Transport				Residential
31%				Residential
31%				and service
				and service
			Other	7%
	Fugitive emissions		1%
	Fugitive emissions
		2%

Figure 3.4 Share of greenhouse gas emissions by sector

(% of tonnes of CO2 equivalent)

Million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent
25
20
15
10
5
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Transport	Industrial processes
Energy supply	Residential and service
Industrial combustion	Waste
Agriculture	Solvents etc.

Figure 3.5 Greenhouse gas emissions broken down by sector

methane and nitrous oxide emissions are low, at 2 per cent and 4 per cent respectively.Methane emissions in- creased by 37 per cent between 1990 and 2007, prin- cipally as a consequence of increased use of biofuels in the residential and service sector and in power and district-heating plants. Nitrous oxide emissions stayed at roughly the same level between 1990 and 2007.

Emissions by the energy sector vary with temper- ature and precipitation conditions and the state of the economy over the years, but the trend over the period 1990-2007 was for a slight reduction in emis- sions. Emissions were 21 per cent lower in 2007 than

3. Greenhouse gas inventory 1990-2007	29

Million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent

45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Energy total		Industrial combustion

Electricity and heating production		Residential and service

Refineries		Other

Manufacturing of solid fuels		Fugitive emissions

Figure 3.6 Greenhouse gas emissions from the energy sector

in 1990, and the decrease is principally due to the use of oil for heating in the residential and service sector having declined and having been replaced principally by district heating based on biomass fuels. [Fig. 3.6]

Energy industries (electricity and district heating production, refineries, manufacture of solid fuels)

Greenhouse gas emissions from electricity and district heating production were 8.5 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2007. Emissions varied with temperature and precipitation levels over the period 1990-2007, which has an effect on the need for heat- ing and on hydropower production. Emissions are also affected by the increase in iron and steel production which has taken place since 1990, as residual gases are used to produce electricity and district heating. Elec- tricity and district heating production increased be- tween 1990 and 2007, but emissions did not increase to the same extent, as the expansion has mainly taken place through increased use of biofuel. Emissions per kWh have therefore fallen. Energy and carbon dioxide taxes, the electricity certificate system and fossil fuel prices have contributed to this trend.

Emissions from refineries increased from 1.8 million tonnes in 1990 to 1.9 million tonnes of carbon diox- ide equivalent in 2007 as a result of increased produc- tion. Emissions from the manufacture of solid fuels totalled 0.3 million tonnes in 2007 and remained at roughly the same level between 1990 and 2007.

Residential and service sector

Greenhouse gas emissions in 2007 totalled 4.5 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent from the residen- tial and service sector, including emissions from indi- vidual heating and from combustion in agriculture,

forestry and fisheries, which is a more than 59 per cent decrease in comparison with 1990. The decrease is due to emissions from individual heating of residential and commercial premises having fallen from 9.2 to 2.7 million tonnes between 1990 and 2007 as a result of a change-over from oil to district heating and in recent years also to heat pumps and pellet-fired boilers. The positive trend is principally due to energy and carbon dioxide taxes, rising oil prices and investment grants.

Emissions from energy use in agriculture, forestry and fisheries increased by 8 per cent between 1990 and 2007 and totalled 1.8 million tonnes in 2007.

Industrial combustion

Greenhouse gas emissions from industrial combus- tion were approximately 10.7 million tonnes of car- bon dioxide equivalent in 2007. This is 9 per cent be- low the 1990 level, but emissions have varied over the years, principally due to economic fluctuations.A small number of energy-intensive industries account for a large proportion of emissions in the sector. The pulp and paper industry accounts for 16 per cent of emis- sions, the chemical industry for 15 per cent and the iron and steel industry for 12 per cent. Some decrease in emissions can be seen in recent years, principally due to reduced emissions from the pulp and paper industry.

Fugitive emissions and other

Emissions from the fugitive emissions sector come for example from refineries and flaring in the iron and steel industry. Emissions increased by almost 13 per cent between 1990 and 2007 to 1.3 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2007. Emissions from “Other” (principally military emissions) decreased between 1990 and 2007 and totalled just under 0.3 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2007.

3.2.2 Industrial processes

Emissions from industrial processes are in particular derived from the production of iron and steel and from the cement and lime industries. Emissions from industrial processes totalled 6.5 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2007, which is 10 per cent of Sweden’s aggregate emissions. [Fig. 3.7]

In 2007 emissions were around 13 per cent higher than in 1990, but emissions have varied, principally due to variation in production volumes and economic fluctuations.Economic fluctuations differ,however,for different industries. Emissions from the mineral indus- try and the iron and steel industry, for example, have

30 3. Greenhouse gas inventory 1990-2007

Million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Industrial processes total		Metal production

Mineral products		Other production

Chemical industry		Fluorinated gases

Figure 3.7 Greenhouse gas emissions from industrial processes

Million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent
1,40
1,20
1,00
0,80
0,60
0,40
0,20
0,00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Fluorinated greenhouse gases total	HFCs	PFCs	SF6

Figure 3.8 Emissions of fluorinated greenhouse gases

increased in recent years, while those from the chem- ical industry have decreased over the same period. Some of the increase in emissions from the iron and steel industry is also reported in industrial combustion and electricity and district heating production.

Fluorinated greenhouse gases (HFC, PFC, SF6)

Total emissions of fluorinated greenhouse gases in 2007 were almost 1.3 million tonnes in 2007 in terms of car- bon dioxide equivalent, just under 2 per cent of total emissions.Emissions increased by 157 per cent between 1990 and 2007 due to a sharp increase in emissions of HFCs. This is due to HFCs having replaced the ozone- depleting substances CFCs and HCFCs as refrigerants and the number of refrigerating and air-conditioning units, as well as heat pumps, having increased. [Fig. 3.8]

3.2.3 Solvent and other product use28

Emissions of carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide from the use of solvents and other products in 2007 totalled

28 This sector includes emissions for instance from the use of paints, nitrous oxide in healthcare, fire-extinguishing equipment and emissions from the use of chemical products in wood impregnating, the graphic industry, the textile industry and the leather industry.

0.3 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent, which is 0.5 per cent of total emissions. In comparison with 1990 emissions fell by 11 per cent, principally due to a change-over from oil-based to water-based paints.

3.2.4 Transport

Domestic transport accounted for 31 per cent of to- tal greenhouse gas emissions in 2007. Emissions in- creased by 12 per cent, from 18.6 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in 1990 to 20.8 million tonnes in 2007. Emissions of methane and nitrous oxide from transport are low and represent only 1 per cent of the sector’s emissions, while carbon di- oxide emissions account for 99 per cent of emissions. Methane emissions have decreased by 70 per cent since 1990 as a consequence of better exhaust gas treatment and totalled 0.03 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2007. Nitrous oxide emissions totalled 0.16 million tonnes of carbon dioxide emis- sions in 2007 and have decreased since 2000 as a re- sult of better technology in vehicles. [Fig. 3.9]

Emissions from road traffic have increased. This is principally due to increased transport mileage with heavy-duty vehicles and an increased proportion of light-duty trucks and cars with diesel engines, result- ing in increased use of diesel.This increased transport mileage with heavy goods vehicles is due among other things to the structural transformation in society to- wards greater specialisation, centralisation and glo- balisation, which has the result that goods are trans- ported ever longer distances. Diesel consumption in- creased by 38 per cent between 1990 and 2007.

The increase in emissions from road traffic is coun- teracted by a decrease in use of petrol as there has been a significant shift from petrol to diesel for cars. Sev- eral factors have been significant in reducing emissions

Million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent

25
20
15
10
5
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Transport total	Shipping
Road traffic	Rail
Aviation	Other machinery

Figure 3.9 Greenhouse gas emissions from transport

3. Greenhouse gas inventory 1990-2007	31

Million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent

0,8
0,7
0,6
0,5
0,4
0,3
0,2
0,1
0,0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Aviation	Shipping	Rail

Figure 3.10 Greenhouse gas emissions from domestic avia- tion, shipping and railways

Million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent

4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Waste total		Waste incineration

Solid waste disposal		Wastewater management

Figure 3.11 Greenhouse gas emissions from the waste sector

from petrol for road traffic.Vehicle fuel taxes, together with high petrol prices, have contributed to a switch to renewable fuels and to limiting consumption.

Greenhouse gas emissions from domestic aviation totalled 0.6 million tonnes in 2007, which was 11 per cent below the 1990 level. Emissions from do- mestic aviation have varied but have decreased in recent years as more people choose to travel by rail rather than air within the country. [Fig. 3.10]

Emissions from domestic shipping were estimated at 0.5 million tonnes in 2007. Emissions varied over the period 1990-2007 but have decreased since 2003.

The railways have reduced their emissions by around 34 per cent since 1990, to less than 0.1 mil- lion tonnes in 2007.

3.2.5 Waste

Emissions from the waste sector in 2007 totalled 1.9 million tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions or just un- der 3 per cent of aggregate greenhouse gas emissions. Emissions have decreased by 38 per cent since 1990. Emissions by the waste sector are dominated by meth- ane emissions from landfills (87 per cent). [Fig. 3.11]

Landfills are the largest source for the emission of methane gas, after livestock farming, as methane is formed when organic waste breaks down. Emissions of methane have decreased steadily since the start of the 1990s, partly due to the quantity of waste sent to landfill having decreased and partly as a consequence of increased collection and disposal of methane gas from landfills. The quantity of waste sent to landfill has decreased principally as a result of the ban on landfilling, combustible and organic material intro- duced in 2002 and 2005. Producer responsibility, mu- nicipal waste plans and waste tax have also reduced the quantity of waste.

Emissions of nitrous oxide from wastewater have also decreased by 29 per cent since 1990. Carbon dioxide emissions from the incineration of hazard- ous waste have increased somewhat in recent years in comparison with the level of emissions in 1990- 2002 as an increased quantity of waste was burnt.

3.2.6 Agriculture

Agriculture is the largest source of methane and ni- trous oxide emissions. In 2007 the sector’s emissions of these greenhouse gases totalled 8.4 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent. Aggregate emissions from agriculture decreased by just under 4 per cent over the period 2000-2007 and have been reduced by 10 per cent since 1990. [Fig. 3.12]

Methane emissions come principally from the en- teric fermentation and manure of cattle. The most important reason for the reduced emissions is re- duced livestock farming. The number of dairy cows has decreased from 576 000 in 1990 to 370 000 in 2007. The number of pigs has also declined.

Million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

	N2O Agricultural soils			CH4 Manure management
	N2O Agricultural soils			CH4 Manure management
	N2O Manual management			CH4 Enteric Fermentation
	N2O Manual management			CH4 Enteric Fermentation

Figure 3.12 Greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture

32 3. Greenhouse gas inventory 1990-2007

The reduced emissions of nitrous oxide since 1990 are due to the use of both mineral fertiliser and farmyard manure having decreased. The quantity of farmyard manure is declining principally as a conse- quence of the decreasing number of dairy cows. The action programme which has been implemented to bring down nitrogen losses from agriculture has to some extent reduced indirect emissions of nitrous oxide from leached nitrogen and ammonia deposi- tion. The expansion of slurry management for pigs and dairy cows has also reduced emissions.

3.2.7Land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF)

The land use, land-use change and forestry sector contributed to an annual net sink in Sweden over the period 1990-2007. The sink ranged between 21 and 36 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent over the period, but the trend points to a somewhat de- creasing sink, due in part to felling having increased over the period. The sink has decreased at a some- what higher rate in recent years.A contributory cause may be a severe storm in early 2005 which brought down a large quantity of forest, and this may con- tinue to have an impact on the size of the sink in the years after 2005, at the same time as felling is increas- ing. According to Swedish Forest Agency statistics, felling ranged between 64 Mm3 and 95 Mm3 over the period 1990-2007, with the exception of 2005, when felling was estimated at 122 Mm3. The uncer- tainty is, however, greater in data for 2004-2007 with regard to the LULUCF sector, as not all the sample plots have been inventoried for these years.

The size, variation and trend of the total net sink are principally affected by the change in the carbon stock in forests. Removals in living biomass in forest ranged

between around 20 and 40 million tonnes of carbon dioxide over the period 1990-2007, while carbon di- oxide emissions from soil carbon in forest land ranged between 1.5 and 7 million tonnes. Cropland accounts for a net source as cultivation of organogenic soils leads to carbon dioxide emissions. Emissions ranged between 3 and 4 million tonnes of carbon dioxide over the period 1990-2007. [Fig. 3.13]

3.2.8 International transport

Total emissions from international bunkering of fuels totalled 9.8 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equiva- lent in 2007.This is an increase of 170 per cent from 1990, and is principally due to increased emissions from international shipping. [Fig. 3.14]

Emissions from international shipping were just over 7.5 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2007, an increase of 230 per cent since 1990. In- ternational freight transport mileage has increased as a result of an increase in the quantity of transported freight and globalisation of trade and production sys- tems having led to freight being transported longer distances. Another explanation is that Swedish refin- eries are producing low-sulphur ship fuel (fuel oil 2-5) which meets strict environmental requirements. This has led to more shipping lines having chosen to refuel in Sweden. The fluctuations in bunkered vol- umes between different years also depends heavily on the price of fuel in Sweden in comparison with other ports in other countries.

Greenhouse gas emissions from the international bunkering of aviation totalled 2.2 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2007, which was an in- crease of 0.9 million tonnes or 64 per cent in com- parison with 1990. The trend points to increasing emissions, as international travel is increasing.

Million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent			Million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent
10			12
5
0			10
-5
-10			8
-10
-15			6
-20			6
-20
-25			4
-30			4
-30
-35			2
			2
-40
-45			0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007			1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Cropland	Settlements	LULUCF total	International bunkers	Marine	Aviation
Wetlands	Grassland	Forest land	International bunkers	Marine	Aviation
Wetlands	Grassland	Forest land

Figure 3.13 Greenhouse gas emissions and removals from

Figure 3.14 Emissions from international bunkering

Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry

3. Greenhouse gas inventory 1990-2007	33

4Policies and measures

4.1Swedish climate strategy

Sweden’s climate strategy has developed steadily since the end of the 1980s. The strategy consists of objectives, policy instruments and measures and re- current follow-up and evaluation of established ob- jectives and strategies.

Work aimed at developing climate strategy has in- tensified over the past ten years, and the strategy has been developed to increasingly emphasise the inter- national nature of the climate issue and the fact that climate change mitigation has to be resolved globally.

Sweden is working with the other EU Member States to achieve a global agreement which is com- patible with the target of limiting the rise in temper- ature to no more than 2 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial level.

During the first decade of the 21st century the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag) has decided on ob- jectives and measures for the period up to 2010, the overall formulation of the climate objective and a long-term objective by 2050 (2002 climate policy resolutions). Regular assessments of national climate policy have been made to follow up objectives and strategies, resulting in part from the commitments under the Kyoto Protocol. A first review was carried out at a checkpoint started in 2004 (2006 climate policy resolutions), and a second review was initiated in 2007 (2009 climate policy resolutions). Extensive material was produced ahead of the 2009 decision by responsible authorities, an appointed scientific coun- cil and a parliamentary committee containing repre- sentatives of all the political parties in the Riksdag.

Sweden has adopted a new interpretation of the overarching formulation of the climate objective, signifying that Sweden shall act internationally for global efforts to be focused on limiting the rise in temperature to no more than 2 degrees Celsius

above the pre-industrial level. A new concentration target is derived from the temperature target accord- ing to which the level of greenhouse gases in the long term has to be stabilised at a maximum level of 400 ppm carbon dioxide equivalent. The concentration target signifies a significant tightening in comparison with the formulation adopted in 2002.

The long-term target for 2050 has been replaced under the 2009 decision by the vision that in 2050 Sweden will not have any net emissions of green- house gases into the atmosphere.

Sweden has adopted a climate target for 2020. The target is for Swedish emissions in 2020 to be 40 per cent lower than emissions in 1990.This target applies to those activities not covered by the emissions trad- ing scheme (EU ETS), see Facts Box 4.1. This means that greenhouse gas emissions in 2020 will be approxi- mately 20 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent lower for the non-EU ETS sector in comparison with the 1990 level. If this target is to be attained, instru- ments already decided upon and changes in instru- ments decided upon in the EU must be supplement- ed by further elaborated tax instruments and mitiga- tion measures in other countries, through investments in developing countries or initiatives in other EU Member States. The initiatives in other countries will represent no more than a third of the aggregate reduc- tion, i.e. a maximum of 6.7 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent per year. The Riksdag has also de- cided that Sweden’s use of renewable energy is to rise to 50 per cent of total energy use in 2020 and that energy use will be made 20 per cent more efficient than total energy use in 2008 per unit of GDP. These targets are described in Facts Boxes 4.2 and 4.3.

Under the 2009 climate and energy policy resolu- tions, Sweden has adopted a national climate target for 2020 that goes further than the burden sharing that applies between the EU Member States for the

34 4. Policies and measures

Facts Box 4.1 Emissions in and outside the EU Emissions Trading Scheme

The European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) covers emis- sions of carbon dioxide from installations for the production of electric- ity and heating, refineries, installations that produce and process iron, steel, glass and glass fibre, cement and ceramics, and installations that produce paper and pulp. From 2012 emissions from aviation will also be included, and from 2013 so too will the aluminium industry and parts of the chemical industry. The expansion in 2013 covers, in addition to carbon dioxide, emissions by additional industries of per- fluorinated hydrocarbons and nitrous oxide. In Sweden, emissions from the trading sector accounted for around 33% of total emissions in the country over the period 2005-2007.

Other emissions from activities outside the emissions trading scheme, the “non-trading sector”, come from a number of different sources. The transport sector accounts for the largest share in Swe- den, followed by emissions from agriculture (methane and nitrous oxide) and from machinery. Emissions from certain industries, such as the engineering industry, are partly included in emissions trading and partly excluded from it.

Emissions outside trading scheme in 2007

Mtonnes carbon dioxide equivalent 25

energy

service

from

-gases

Transport Agriculture Machinery

Landfills

incinerationrecovery

and

oxideinstallations

Waste

Industry

nitrous

energy

and

energy

for

Residential

and

Methane

industrial

The table below shows how Swedish emissions developed to date between 1990 and 2007 and projections up to 2020 (Chapter 5), divided into emissions included and not included in the EU Emis- sions Trading Scheme, and the trend in emissions from some of the sectors not covered by the trading scheme. EU ETS covers the emis- sions included in the period 2008-2012 and emissions from aviation.

Emissions in and outside the trading scheme (Mtonnes per year)

		1990	2005	2006	2007	2010	2020
EU ETS		21,2	21,8	22,2	21,3	21,8	22,2
Non-EU ETS		50,8	45,5	44,6	44,1	43,2	40,9
Transport (incl. military)	CO2-eq.	18,6	20,3	20,2	20,3	20,7	21,0
Agriculture	CO2-eq.	9,4	8,6	8,5	8,4	8,1	7,0
Machinery (incl. fisheries)	CO2	3,0	3,3	3,3	3,3	3,2	3,2
Industry and energy	CO2	4,1	3,4	3,4	3,1	3,4	3,3
(incl. solvents)
Residential and service	CO2	9,1	3,3	2,7	2,4	2,1	1,3
Methane and nitrous oxide	CO2-eq.	2,4	2,1	2,1	2,0	2,0	2,1
industry and energy
Landfills	CO2-eq.	3,1	2,2	2,1	1,9	1,5	0,8
F-gases	CO2-eq.	0,5	1,2	1,2	1,3	0,9	0,4
Waste incineration for	CO2	0,6	1,2	1,1	1,3	1,3	1,8
energy recovery
Total		71,9	67,2	66,9	65,4	65,0	63,1

Emissions outside the EU trading scheme are estimated to have decreased by just under 7 tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent be- tween 1990 and 2007, a decrease of around 13%. According to the latest projection, emissions are estimated to continue to de- crease, see also Chapter 5. The estimate made of the breakdown of emissions between EU ETS and non-EU ETS in 1990 is based on a rough estimate, partly because the trading scheme was not introduced until 2005.

EU’s common energy and climate package. Under the sharing of responsibility decided upon for the EU’s unilateral commitment (for a 20 per cent re- duction in emissions between 1990 and 2020), Sweden is to reduce emissions outside the EU Emis- sions Trading Scheme (ETS) by 17 per cent between 2005 and 2020. This commitment is to be scaled up if the EU chooses to adopt a more ambitious com- mitment on emissions in the international negotia- tions. The Swedish objective of increased use of re- newable energy by 2020 too goes somewhat further than Sweden’s equivalent commitment according to EU burden sharing.

Action plans are being drawn up for the switch in order to meet these targets: for greater energy effi- ciency, for the promotion of renewable energy, for a fossil fuel-independent vehicle fleet and for reduced emissions and increased removal of greenhouse gases in agriculture and forestry. Sweden also needs to draw up the first two action plans mentioned in

Facts Box 4.2 Sweden’s renewables target for 2020

The EU has adopted a binding target that the proportion of renewable energy has to increase from around 8.5% at present to 20% of total energy use over the period 2005-2020. Responsibility for attaining this target has been shared among the Member States. According to this burden sharing, Sweden has to increase its proportion from just under 44% (in 2007) to 49% in 2020. This is one percentage point lower than the national target for the same year. In the latest energy projection (Chapter 5), the proportion of renewable energy in total energy use increases by 2020. However, the projection contains significant uncertainties, the outcome being affected among other things by how requirements for biofuels to meet sustainability criteria are applied in practice and how energy use in heat pumps will finally be calculated. Despite these uncertainties, the trend is judged to be in the right direction. With policy instruments already decided upon and planned, Sweden appears capable of fulfilling its commitment towards the EU and meeting the national target. A particularly signifi- cant change in policy instrument is the proposal to raise the level of ambition in the electricity certificate system by 2020. To show how the renewables target is to be attained, an action plan is to be drawn up and submitted in 2010. The trend is then to be reviewed every two years, and a checkpoint is to be conducted in 2014.

4. Policies and measures	35

Facts Box 4.3 Sweden’s target for energy efficiency improvement by 2010

The EU had adopted a target of a 20 per cent improvement in energyefficiency by 2020. The target is not binding. Sweden has opted to formulate its target for improved energy efficiency by 2020 as 20 per cent reduced energy intensity between 2008 and 2020, which means that the energy supplied per unit of GDP at fixed prices is to decrease over the period. Sweden’s energy intensity decreased by almost 30 per cent between 1990 and 2007. In the latest energy projection (see Chapter 5 and Annex 4), the intensity decreased by just under 14 per cent between 2008 and 2020. This target can be achieved with measures for more efficient energy use, but also by continued more rapid growth in less energy-intensive industrial sectors compared with energy-intensive industry.

Sweden has also adopted guidance targets for improved energy efficiency by 2010 and 2016 in accordance with the EU’s Energy Services Directive. These targets relate to energy savings which, on average, are to amount to 6.5 per cent (in 2010) and 9 per cent (in 2016) of average energy use over the period 2001-2005.

The targets are accompanied by an action plan for energy ef- ficiency. The plan relates to how the Energy Services Directive is to be implemented in Sweden, and therefore needs to be updated in 2011 and 2014. As well as existing policy instruments, the ac- tion plan includes a five-year energy efficiency programme over the period 2010-2014. The programme is to receive SEK 300 million of funding annually. The programme covers:

•Strengthened support for local and regional information and ad- vice campaigns

•Support for technology procurement and market introduction

•Grants for energy surveys in small and medium-sized companies

order to show how the country intends to fulfil its commitments under the EU’s Renewables Directive and Energy Services Directive.

The combined action plan regarding how the 2020 climate target is to be met will also need to be pre- sented to the EU according to provisions to be drawn up under the EU’s monitoring mechanism.The trend towards meeting the target will need to be followed up annually.

Objectives and policy instruments are developed successively, and new changes in instruments may continue to need to be introduced and followed up continuously on the basis of knowledge of climate change and options for taking measures. A check- point is to be conducted in 2015 with the aim of an- alysing development in relation to objectives as well as the latest state of knowledge.The checkpoint does not cover the fundamental orientation of policy but may lead to adjustments to policies and instruments.

At the national level the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency is responsible for the environmen- tal quality objective Reduced Climate Impact and for Sweden’s regular climate reporting to UNFCCC and the EU. The Swedish Environmental Protec- tion Agency is tasked with ensuring that new statis-

Facts Box 4.4 Parliamentary resolutions of significance to

Swedish climate policy

•The first climate-policy target for Sweden was adopted in 1988. The target only covered carbon dioxide and meant that emissions were to be stabilised at the “present-day level”.

•An addition was made to the 1988 target in 1991. The new target covered all greenhouse gases and all sectors.

•In 1993 a national climate strategy was adopted in line with the target in the Convention on Climate Change to stabilise emis- sions in developed countries. The new national target stated that carbon dioxide emissions were to be stabilised at the 1990 level by 2000 and then to decrease.

•The Riksdag energy-policy guidelines from 1997 included a strategy for reduced climate impact of energy use and energy production.

•The target of carbon dioxide emissions from transport having to be stabilised at 1990 levels in 2010 was adopted in the Riksdag resolution on transport policy in 1998.

•In 1999 the Riksdag decided to introduce a system of 15 envi- ronmental quality objectives, one of which was an objective con- cerned with the greenhouse effect: the environmental objective of “Reduced climate impact”.

•In 2002 the Government Bill “Sweden’s Climate Strategy” was adopted, containing climate targets for 2010 and 2050

•In 2002 the Riksdag decided on a further development of the sys- tem of environmental quality objectives, relating among other things to the responsibilities of various actors to attain the objectives.

•The 2002 energy-policy resolution included a related climate strategy for the area.

•In the 2006 climate policy resolutions the national target for 2010 was evaluated and retained.

•In 2009 the government bills “An Integrated Climate and Energy Policy” were adopted, with climate targets, targets for an increased share of renewable energy by 2020, a vision for 2050 and a new interpretation of the overall formulation of the climate objective.

tics are produced annually on the trend in emissions in the country and that projections and reports of initiatives taken for instruments in Swedish climate strategy are produced every two years. This work is undertaken in cooperation with responsible sector authorities. The Swedish Energy Agency has broad sector responsibility for energy supply and energy use in society, and among other things is responsible for the action plans drawn up for continued energy efficiency improvement and increased use of renew- able energy as well as Sweden’s work on flexible mechanisms. Sida, the transport agencies, the Swed- ish Forest Agency and the National Board of Hous- ing, Building and Planning also have key tasks in ef- forts to follow up and develop Swedish climate strat- egy. No specific legislation or special administrative routines have been introduced for implementation of the Kyoto Protocol. The existing Swedish govern- ment administrative organisation and the system of government inquiries has also proved to work well in order to fulfil the country’s commitments under the Kyoto Protocol.

36 4. Policies and measures

The county administrative boards have been tasked since 1998 with regionally adapting the national en- vironmental quality objectives. All the county ad- ministrative boards have decided on regional climate targets since a year ago. They have also been tasked since 2005 with developing regional action pro- grammes to attain the environmental quality objec- tives.All the county administrative boards developed regional energy and climate strategies in 2008. In ad- dition, a large number of municipalities have adopt- ed local climate targets, and several municipalities have a comprehensive action programme to reduce emissions in the municipality.

Key parliamentary resolutions on Swedish climate policy are presented in Facts Box 4.4.

4.2Policy instruments in Swedish climate strategy and their effects

4.2.1 Background

There are a number of policy instruments in Swe- den that directly or indirectly affect greenhouse gas emissions. The use of cross-cutting economic policy instruments is emphasised in Swedish climate strat- egy, but these instruments are also supplemented in many cases by targeted initiatives, for instance to support technological development and market introduction, areas notable for the market itself not being able to create the necessary conditions for an economically optimal level for the society, and to overcome barrier effects. Examples of barrier effects may be conditions that prevent measures being put into effect despite being profitable such as house- holds not being aware of the cost saving that certain measures can generate, or the depreciation period that households and businesses use being shorter than the economically optimal period for the so- ciety. While the former problem can be remedied by information campaigns and similar, the latter requires some form of investment aid. There may also be justification for other policy instruments if

the cross-cutting policy instruments for distribution policy or competitive reasons are not fully utilised. Sweden has, for example, introduced tax exemp- tion for renewable fuels, as well as a green car re- bate and vehicle tax exemption instead of a sharp rise in the cross-cutting instrument of energy and carbon dioxide tax. Policy instruments that inter- act with carbon dioxide taxes and emissions trading have also been introduced in many cases because they contribute to other societal objectives other than the climate target, for example meeting tar- gets in energy policy.

Among the policy instruments, energy and carbon dioxide taxes have been of key significance in reduc- ing emissions in Sweden since the early 1990s.These taxes have at the same time been supplemented by other instruments such as technology procurement, information, differentiated vehicle taxes and invest- ment grants. Legislation also contributes to emission reductions, principally in the waste sector. In recent years EU-wide policy instruments, principally the Emissions Trading Scheme, have played an increas- ingly significant role in Sweden.

At the same time, the formulation of public plan- ning in Sweden and other policy instruments that have been applied over a period of many yeas have to a large degree set the framework (created oppor- tunities and established obstacles) for development in recent decades. The investments made in earlier decades to expand district heating networks, public transport systems and carbon-free electricity pro- duction are of particular importance. [Table 4.1]

As there are many policy instruments and they have often been introduced to fulfil objectives other than climate targets, it may be difficult to evaluate exact fulfilment of objectives afterwards. As several instruments interact, it is also difficult to distinguish the impact of an individual policy instrument from that of the others. In addition, differentiating the ef- fects of policy instruments from the impacts of other changes in the world at large is often a complicated task. This is particularly clear for development over

Table 4.1 Existing instruments in Swedish policy of significance to climate strategy. EU policy instruments are highlighted.

Cross-sectoral	Energy supply	Industry	Transport	Residential	Agriculture
• Energy and carbon	• Emissions	• Emissions trading	• Infrastructure planning	• Energy and	• Support for
dioxidetaxes	trading	• Energy and carbon	• Energy and carbon dioxide	carbon dioxide	biogas
• Emissions trading	• Energy and	dioxide taxes (out-	taxes	taxes	• Advice
• Environmental Code	carbon dioxide	side EU ETS)	• CO2 requirements for new	• Energy declara-	• Energy and
• Planning and Building	taxes	• F-gas regulation	vehicles	tion	carbon dioxide
Act	• Electricity	• Programme for	• Tax exemption for biofuels/	• Building regula-	taxes
• Climate investment	certificates	energy efficiency in	quota obligation	tions	• Rural develop-
programmes	• Special initia-	industry (PFE)	• CO2-differentiated vehicle tax	• Energy advice	ment pro-
• Information	tives for wind		• Incentives for green cars	• Technology pro-	gramme
• Research and	and solar		• Definition of green car	curement
development	power		• Car benefit taxation	• Energy labelling
Källa: Kontrollstation 2008

4. Policies and measures	37

the past decade. Several instruments of significance to climate strategy have been introduced or tight- ened in Sweden over this period, at the same time as energy prices have been rising sharply.

Another difficulty in evaluating policy instruments in Sweden is that the policy instruments that lead to reduced use of electricity or increased production of carbon-free electricity only influence emissions of carbon dioxide within the borders of Sweden to a limited extent, as electricity trading is done at the Nordic/Northern European level and since 2005 has also been covered by the EU ETS. For this reason we have chosen to report impacts of policy instruments that influence electricity use in energy terms rather than in the form of reduced emissions.

It should also be emphasised that there were al- ready policy instruments in the energy sector before 1990 that steered in the same direction as in the period after 1990 by incentives being given early on for the introduction of bioenergy and for the expan- sion of district heating. It may consequently be dif- ficult to distinguish the additional effect of the in- struments introduced in Sweden after 1990 in the energy supply sector and the residential and service sector from the effects that would have occurred if the policy instruments had not been tightened.

4.2.2 Cross-sectoral instruments

Energy and carbon dioxide taxes

The present-day system of energy taxes is based on a combination of carbon dioxide taxes, energy taxes on fuel, nuclear power tax and consumption tax on electricity. Energy taxes and carbon dioxide taxes are levied on fossil fuels.

Figure 4.1 shows how energy and carbon dioxide tax developed for heating oil in the various sectors between 1990 and 2009.

SEK/m3
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
1990	1992	1994	1996	1998	2000	2002	2004	2006	2008

Households, services,	Combined heat and power	Industry
Households, services,	Combined heat and power	Industry
heating plants

Figure 4.1 Energy and carbon dioxide tax (nominal) on heat- ing oil for different users

Facts Box 4.5 Energy and carbon dioxide taxes

Carbon dioxide tax was introduced in 1991 and has increased from SEK 0.25/kg carbon dioxide to SEK 1.05/kg in 2009. Manufactur- ing industry outside the EU Emissions Trading Scheme, agriculture, forestry and aquaculture pay 21% of the general level of tax for fuel used for heating. In addition there are special rules for further tax relief for energy-intensive industry and for diesel used in land-based industries. With effect from 2004 fuel used in combined heat and power plants is covered by the same general tax relief as manufac- turing industry. According to the 2009 parliamentary climate policy resolution, carbon dioxide tax on fossil fuels for heating in industry outside EU ETS and for agricultural, forestry and water activities is to be raised from 21% to 60% of the general level by 2015 with a first step of 30% by 2011. The special rule on tax relief for energy- intensive industry is also to be removed in stages over the same period (under the rule, companies in manufacturing industry as well as agriculture, forestry and aquaculture where carbon dioxide tax exceeds 0.8% of sales value are given further tax relief so that the excess carbon dioxide tax – over 0.8% – is reduced to 24% of the tax that would otherwise be payable). Carbon dioxide tax is be- ing removed for industry covered by the EU ETS. Starting in 2011, the special repayment of carbon dioxide tax on diesel for machinery in the land-based industries will be lowered until it is SEK 0.90 per litre in 2015 instead of the present-day level of SEK 2.38 per litre.

Tax on energy has existed in Sweden for a long time. Tax on pet- rol and diesel was introduced as long ago as 1924, while tax on heating fuels has existed since the 1950s. The level of energy tax has changed over time and also varies between different fuels. In 2009 energy tax on natural gas was SEK 0.024/kWh, on coal SEK 0.045/kWh and on heating oil SEK 0.08/kWh. Energy tax on petrol, environmental class 1, is SEK 0.341/kWh and energy tax on die- sel, environmental class 1, is SEK 0.134/kWh. However, biofuels for burning and for vehicles are completely exempt from energy tax. Nor are manufacturing industry and fuels for heating production in combined heat and power plants covered by energy tax. Fuels used in production of electricity are exempt from both energy and carbon dioxide tax. Under the 2009 climate policy resolution, energy tax is to be restructured. With effect from 2011 the level of tax is to be set on the basis of the energy content of the fossil fuel at SEK 0.08/kWh on fuels for households, services and district heating. Fossil fuels used for heating in industry, heating production in CHP plants and in land-based industries will also be covered by energy tax. In the EU ETS sector the tax is put on a par with the EU’s minimum level for energy taxes. It is proposed that the energy tax on diesel as a vehicle fuel should be raised in two stages, in 2011 and 2013, by a total of SEK 0.40 per litre to come closer to the energy tax level for petrol.

Petrol and diesel for domestic transport are subject to the general level of carbon dioxide tax. Rises in carbon dioxide tax have, however, to a large extent been offset by a simultaneous lowering of energy tax on vehicle fuels. Tax on vehicle fuels has, however, increased overall since 1990.

Effects of introduced taxes

The energy and carbon dioxide taxes have contribut- ed to sharp reductions in emissions in the residential and service sector and in the district heating sector

38 4. Policies and measures

and have moderated the trend in emissions in the transport sector, see also sections 4.2.3, 4.2.4 and 4.2.6. The move towards lower emissions in district heating production and for the heating of homes was introduced before 1990, in part because biofuels were already exempt from energy tax at that time. The level of carbon dioxide tax (during the 2000s) for both sectors has been substantially above the technical costs of the measures that have principally been implemented, see also section 4.4.

The aggregate tax level in industry has been low- ered since the early 1990s due to concern that a large proportion of Swedish industry is subject to inter- national competition. The EU trading scheme has come to represent the principal means of policy in- strument here instead since 2005.

Developed economic instruments are a key ele- ment in the climate-policy decision taken in 2009. Carbon dioxide tax and energy tax are significant in limiting climate impact in an economically effec- tive way. The level of carbon dioxide tax in future should, in addition to the annual adjustment in ac- cordance with the consumer price index, be adapted to an extent and at a rate which, together with other changes in economic instruments, results in an aggre- gate reduction in greenhouse gas emissions outside EU ETS of 2 million tonnes by 2020.

The EU emissions trading scheme

The EU’s joint emissions trading scheme (ETS) be- gan on 1 January 2005. The scope of EU ETS is described in Facts Box 4.1. The emissions trading scheme sets a cap at EU level for emissions in the sectors covered. The first trading period ran from 2005 to 2007. The scheme is now in the period also covered by international emissions trading under the Kyoto Protocol (2008-2012). The emissions trading scheme is an important element of the EU’s decision to reduce emissions by 2020, and therefore also of Swedish climate efforts for the period up to 2020.

Emissions from Swedish installations under EU ETS were equivalent to around 33 per cent of total green- house emissions in Sweden over the period 2005- 2007. The emissions came 80 per cent from industrial installations and 20 per cent from electricity and dis- trict heating installations.The Swedish breakdown dif- fers substantially from the breakdown for EU ETS as a whole, where emissions from energy supply installa- tions are greater (approx. 60 per cent) than emissions from industrial installations (approx. 40 per cent).

For the first introductory phase and the second period, emission allowances have been for the most

part allocated free of charge according to various rules formulated nationally on the basis of EU-wide criteria. The annual emissions cap for the period 2008-2012 (second trading period) overall was re- duced by around 10 per cent compared with the cap that applied during the first period, 2005-2007. The emissions cap is to be reduced on a straight-line basis from 2013 at 1.74 per cent per year, starting from the level of the cap during the second trading period. This is to result in reductions of 21 per cent in EU ETS up to 2020 in comparison with 2005.The emis- sions cap and the reduction trajectory will need to be revised if the EU commits itself to a more far-reach- ing emission reduction in a new international climate agreement. How the allocation will be lowered in in- dividual Member States depends among other things on the breakdown between emissions from combus- tion installations and from industrial processes in the country’s trading sector and the proportion of indus- try subject to competition. The proportion of emis- sion allowances allocated free will be gradually re- duced over the period 2013-2020.

Impact on carbon dioxide emissions

The effect of EU ETS on global emissions comprises the difference between the level set for the emissions cap and the baseline, i.e. the trend in emissions that would otherwise have taken place.

The emissions effect in an individual country, alongside the price of emission allowances, includ- ing the assessments made of future price changes and other strategic considerations, also depends on national circumstances, for example the existence of supplementary policy instruments and what the costs of measures and the reduction potential are like. The economic climate, weather variations be- tween different years and the trend in energy prices are also of great significance to the trend in emissions in both the short and long terms.

If account is taken of the fact that more combus- tion installations were brought into EU ETS in 2008, actual emissions from Swedish installations in the scheme decreased in 2007 and 2008 in comparison with emissions during the first two years29.

Swedish operators respond in interview-based sur- veys30 that the trading scheme has influenced the companies to reduce their carbon dioxide emis- sions. Measures have principally been taken in instal- lations in the energy supply sector and in the pulp and paper industry. Examples of measures that have been taken are: increased capacity in biofuel instal-

29 Emissions in the trading scheme in 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2008, Swedish Environ- mental Protection Agency.

30 Företagsstrategier för utsläppshandel och klimatåtaganden - en enkätstudie av företa- gens agerande och attityder inom ramen för EU:s handelssystem för utsläppsrätter (Company strategies for emissions trading and climate commitments – a survey- based study of the actions and activities of companies under the EU Emissions Trading Scheme). Swedish Environmental Protection Agency report 5679, 2007.

4. Policies and measures	39

lations, investments in waste-fired boilers (industri- al waste), measures for more efficient combustion, increased use of district heating, conversions of oil- fired boilers to biofuel-fired boilers and general im- plementation in the companies of programmes of measures to reduce energy use. It should be noted that other policy instruments may also have influ- enced this trend.Action programmes to make energy use more efficient are also being implemented as part of the Programme for Energy Efficiency in Energy- Intensive Industry (PFE) (section 4.2.5). The elec- tricity certificate system (section 4.2.3) also provides incentives to increase capacity for the use of biofuel in combined heat and power plants.

It is apparent from the model calculation made of the combined effects of the economic instruments in the energy sector in Sweden, presented in 4.2.3, that the EU emissions trading system together with the electricity certificate system and energy and carbon dioxide taxes are expected to be the most important instruments in limiting emissions from the energy supply sector in the future. The trading scheme is judged to be the most important policy instrument for industry.

The environmental code and planning legislation

The overarching legislation in the area of the envi- ronment is collated in the Environmental Code. The overall aim of the Environmental Code is to promote sustainable development. The environmental quali- ty objectives are to serve as a guide in putting the Code into practice. The Code contains, among other things, general rules on consideration which are to be observed in all activities and measures. Major en- vironmentally hazardous activities are covered by an obligation to obtain a permit. Greenhouse gas emis- sions form part of the permit appraisal procedure. With effect from 2005 it is, however, no longer per- mitted to issue emissions limit values for carbon di- oxide or to limit the use of fossil fuels for installa- tions covered by the EU Emissions Trading Scheme. The Government also considers that the require- ments laid down for measures for energy saving in companies in enforcement and appraisal under the Environmental Code should be better coordinated with the requirements that apply under PFE.

Measures in the area of public planning principal- ly have an impact on emission trends in the longer term and may be of great significance from this point of view. Measures in public planning are principally governed by the Planning and BuildingAct, but many measures, for example major infrastructure projects,

are also covered by the provisions of the Environ- mental Code.The significance of the development of the built environment for energy and transport needs in the longer term has been increasingly highlighted, and there are proposals to develop coordination and climate considerations in the planning of infrastruc- ture, traffic and the built environment, for example by giving the county administrative boards clear- er terms of reference to pursue coordination issues. This matter will be addressed in a forthcoming Gov- ernment bill containing proposals on certain amend- ments to the Planning and Building Act.

Cross-sectoral investment grants

A Delegation for Sustainable Cities was appointed for the period 2009-2010. The Delegation is intend- ed to stimulate the development of attractive urban environments with a reduced climate and environ- mental impact which can serve as models both na- tionally and internationally for sustainable urban de- velopment and applied environmental technology. The Delegation is intended to bring together central government, the business community and local gov- ernment in a national platform for sustainable urban development. The aspiration is to put into effect vi- sions for future cities and sustainable housing solu- tions in individual blocks of buildings, districts and local communities with the aid of new technology and forward-looking planning. The Delegation is to provide support to companies and municipalities for measures that contribute to the creation of attractive and sustainable urban environments with reduced climate impact. Support may relate to new con- struction or refurbishment and may contain meas- ures in the fields of energy, water, waste and trans- port, but also in other sectors. There is special focus on city planning projects that substantially reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The Government has ear- marked a total sum of SEK 340 million in 2009 and 2010 for this purpose.

The sustainable cities initiative replaces the grants to local climate investment programmes (Klimp 2003-2008), which itself was the successor to LIP (local investment programmes for ecological sustain- able development 1998-2002).The preliminary out- come of LIP and Klimp up to 2006 was presented in Sweden’s Fourth National Communication.A fur- ther sum of around SEK 800 million was subsequent- ly earmarked under Klimp over the period from 2007 to 2008. In addition, final reporting of all projects in LIP has been completed. The LIP programme was intended to encourage the role of the municipalities

40 4. Policies and measures

in development towards sustainable development based on local circumstances and priorities. The funds have gone to a number of areas, almost half of which have been climate-related. Of the SEK 6.2 billion originally granted, around 70 per cent (4.3 billion) has been used. Just over half the country’s municipalities have received LIP grants.The LIP pro- grammes are estimated to have led to total reduc- tions in emissions corresponding to around 1 million tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions per year, and it is principally district heating projects that are consid- ered to have contributed. The estimation of effect is highly uncertain as it is not possible to establish that the projects would not have been implemented in some form without grants. Klimp signified a great- er focus on climate measures than LIP. Klimp grants totalled around SEK 1.8 billion, and the combined emissions effect of the projects receiving grants is es- timated at around 1 million tonnes of carbon diox- ide equivalent per year from 2012.Around a third of Klimp funds have been used for biogas investments. Just under 70 of the country’s 290 municipalities have received Klimp grants. Evaluations of Klimp have shown that the programme has bolstered cli- mate efforts at local level in those municipalities that have received grants but has also widened the differ- ences between these municipalities and those that have not received grants31. The LIP measures were implemented and the Klimp grant was introduced at the same time as the green tax shift. Carbon di- oxide taxes have therefore been raised sharply over the period at the same time as energy prices have risen, which has enhanced the cost-effectiveness of the measures implemented. Development makes it hard to distinguish retrospectively how great a pro- portion of the measures taken under LIP and Klimp would not have been implemented at all if the grants had not existed.

Information on climate change

Information is an important part of Swedish climate strategy. Several climate information initiatives have been taken in Sweden since 2002. A more detailed review of work relating to information on climate change in Sweden is presented in Chapter 9.

The purpose of work on climate information is to increase knowledge of the causes and consequenc- es of climate change, disseminate the latest research knowledge, increase understanding of the adjust- ments in society that will be needed in the longer term for sustainable development and identify ways of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions.

31 Swedish Energy Agency/Swedish Environmental Protection Agency, Den svenska klimatstrategins utveckling (Development of Swedish climate strategy), 2008.

The Swedish Environmental Protection Agency has been conducting surveys of the Swedish popula- tion’s knowledge of, and attitudes to, climate change since 2002. These surveys provide a basis for the for- mulation of information on climate change. The re- sults show, for instance, that the public have great knowledge of the climate issue and are prepared to contribute to emission reductions, the proportion having increased since 200232.

Information on possible measures in different sec- tors is disseminated through several channels. Cam- paigns concerned with energy efficiency have been run nationally on several occasions, but the more continuous information is provided at local and re- gional level through the country’s climate and energy advisers and regional energy agencies.

The Swedish Energy Agency makes an annual eval- uation of advisory work. Public knowledge of the ac- tivity is assessed in the evaluation, but not the effects of energy advice on behaviour or the impact on the effectiveness of other policy instruments.

Advice to landowners and users traditionally plays a great role in the land-based industries. Both the Swedish Board of Agriculture and the Swedish Forest Agency have recently been commissioned to also prepare targeted information to pass on knowl- edge on more climate-sound agriculture and forestry.

Research and development

Society’s investments in research and development in the area of technology can be regarded as a policy instrument principally aimed at improving the pros- pects of achieving the large emissions reductions re- quired in the longer term.

Swedish climate-related research encompasses a broad area, from natural science and technology to social science and the humanities. The emphasis is on technical and scientific research and development. In the autumn of 2008 the Swedish Parliament (Riks- dag) took a decision on a new research and innovation initiative which meant a substantial increase in the annual appropriations for research focused on climate and energy. In energy research, the raised appropria- tions were principally targeted at the following areas:

•large-scale renewable electricity production (e.g. wind power, wave power, solar power and elec- tricity from the gasification of biomass) and its in- tegration into the power grid.

32 Allmänheten och klimatförändringen 2008. Allmänhetens kunskap om och attityd till klimatförändringen, med fokus på egna åtgärder, konsumtionsbeteenden och företagens ansvar (The public and climate change 2008. Public knowledge of and attitudes to climate change, focusing on their own measures, consumption behaviour and the responsibility of companies.The public and climate change 2008. Public knowledge of and attitudes to climate change, focusing on their own measures, consumption behaviour and the responsibility of companies). Swedish Environmental Protection Agency Report 5904, November 2008.

4. Policies and measures	41

•electric propulsion systems and hybrid vehicles,

•energy combines, biofuels and renewable materi- als, as well as fundamental energy research, in ar- eas such as new nuclear technology and CCS. A more detailed description of Swedish climate re- search efforts is provided in Chapter 8.

4.2.3Production of electricity and district heating

Emissions from electricity and district heating ac- count for a relatively small proportion (just over 10 per cent) of aggregate greenhouse gas emissions in Sweden. The low emissions from electricity produc- tion are explained by the fact that nuclear power and hydropower account for a dominant share of produc- tion, while the additional production of electricity in recent years has principally come from biomass com- bined heat and power plants and wind power.Aggre- gate emissions from electricity and district heating production were 0.5 million tonnes above the 1990 level in 2007. District heating production has in- creased by just over thirty per cent since 1990 while emissions have diminished. The explanation lies in the fact that the use of biomass and waste fuels has increased sharply in district heating plants while the use of fossil fuels has fallen. According to the latest projection, see Chapter 5, aggregate emissions from the production of electricity and district heating will increase slightly up to 2020 despite the assumption of a significant increase in electricity production.

Policy instruments in the electricity and district heating sector

The trend in fuel supply to electricity and district heat- ing is largely explained by the energy and climate policy instruments that have acted and are acting in the sector. Most combustion installations for electricity and heat- ing production have been included in EU ETS since 2005. In addition, the sector is covered by energy and carbon dioxide taxes, an electricity certificate system, the provisions of the Environmental Code and special support for technological development and the intro- duction onto the market of wind power. In the 1990s it was the energy and carbon dioxide taxes, together with targeted investment grants, that were of greatest significance to development in the sector. In the 2000s, the policy instruments in the sector have come to be in- fluenced increasingly by the EU’s common energy and climate policy, at the same time as new policy instru- ments are being introduced nationally. The policy in- struments interact to a great extent. Continued devel-

opment in the sector is of particularly great significance in enabling Sweden to meet its part of the EU target for increased use of renewable energy by 2020 (Facts Box 4.3). As the investments in energy supply installations often have a very long life, development in the sector is of particular significance to the prospects of achieving very low emissions in the longer term.

The electricity certificate system

The electricity certificate system is a market-based sup- port system for the expansion of electricity production from renewable energy sources and peat which was in- troduced in Sweden in 2003.The currently applicable target is to increase electricity production by 17 TWh from the 2002 level by 2016. According to the 2009 Energy Policy Bill this target is to be raised so that re- newable electricity production increases by 25 TWh by 2020. The Swedish Energy Agency is to analyse how this level of ambition is to be met.The proposal is a key element in the Swedish action plan to attain the country’s renewables target by 2020.

Under this system electricity producers are allocat- ed a certificate for every MWh of renewable elec- tricity produced. The electricity certificates are then sold to electricity users who, by law, are obliged to purchase electricity certificates equivalent to a par- ticular proportion of their use. This proportion is successively raised year by year.

In 2007 electricity users were obliged to purchase electricity certificates corresponding to 15.1 per cent of their electricity use. The production of renewa- ble electricity in the electricity certificate system was 12.7 TWh in 2007, when electricity production from peat is deducted. The electricity certificate system contributed to an increase of 6.2 TWh in renewable electricity production between 2002 and 2007.

The portion of electricity production eligible for cer- tificates has increased since the system started. The increase principally consists of increased production of electricity from biofuels in existing combined heat and power plants, at the same time as an expansion of capacity has taken place in biofuel plants.The sys- tem also led to new plants entering service between 2003 and 2007.Altogether there have been 469 new plants. These plants together produced around 1.6 TWh of electricity in 2007.

Calculation of the aggregate effects of the economic instruments in the electricity and district heating sector

A calculation with the model tool MARKAL-NOR- DIC in 2008 shows that emissions from electricity and district heating production might have been 70 per cent higher, which is equivalent to 15 million

42 4. Policies and measures

tonnes in 2007, if 1990 economic policy instruments had been retained in the sector instead of being fur- ther developed and tightened in the way done up to and including 2007.

The instruments included in the analysis are energy taxes on fuels and electricity, carbon dioxide taxes, emissions trading, the electricity certificate system and targeted support for renewable energy produc- tion in the form of investment support and operating grants. The latter policy instruments were mostly in use before the electricity certificate system was in- troduced. In the counterfactual scenario with 1990 instruments, the use of coal and in combined heat and power plants and some coal-condensing plants increases, which explains the wide difference in emissions compared with the case with present-day instruments. The model also analyses development ex-ante with 1990 instruments and present-day in- struments. According to the result of the model, the EU Emissions Trading Scheme assumes greater sig- nificance for emissions from 2015, so that emissions for this sector are substantially below the level given by development for the case with 1990 policy instru- ments. 2008 model calculation produces a result that differs from the analyses made with the MARKAL NORDIC model presented in the Fourth National Communication. The differences are principally due to higher fossil fuel prices having been used in the new calculation and to the model in the new analysis being based on nuclear power installations having a lifetime of 60 years instead of 40 years as assumed in the previous analysis. The former results in present- day policy instruments being estimated to produce a greater effect than 1990 policy instruments up to 2010 in the new analysis, while the latter signifies a lower effect in 2020 than the result in the Fourth National Communication.

Table 4.2 Estimated aggregate effects on emissions from electricity and district heating production in Sweden of the policy instruments introduced after 1990, compared with a reference case with 1990 policy instruments (Mtonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent per year)

2002	2007	2010	2015	2020
11	15	16	17	16

Further initiatives for wind power and solar power

Alongside the electricity certificate system, wind power is covered by special support for technologi- cal development and market introduction in marine and mountain areas as well as by a general environ- mental bonus. The prospects for further production of wind power have also been improved by the rules

for permit appraisal of wind power being simplified and requirements being laid down for planning to be implemented for wind power establishments fo- cused on a size corresponding to 30 TWh in 2020, of which 10 TWh is offshore – the ‘planning framework for wind power’.

A special grant to energy technology which is not yet commercially competitive has been created for the budget years 2009-2011. It will be possible for the grant to go to photovoltaic cell technology.

4.2.4 Residential and service sector

Greenhouse gas emissions from individual heating of homes and commercial premises are estimated to have decreased from 9.2 million tonnes to 2.7 mil- lion tonnes per year between 1990 and 2007. Pro- jections point to further reductions, so that the use of fossil fuels for heating in this sector can be largely phased out by 2020.

Energy use in the sector makes up just over a third of total use in the country, and the potential for energy savings is judged to be particularly great in this sector.

Policy instruments in the residential and service sector

There are a number of policy instruments that affect energy use and greenhouse gas emissions from homes and commercial premises. Energy and carbon diox- ide taxes are estimated to be the policy instruments that have been most significant in reducing the use of fossil fuels in the sector over the past two decades, as these taxes have produced powerful financial in- centives throughout the period to change from using fossil fuels to other forms of energy. Figure 4.2 illus- trates that the effect of policy instruments has stead- ily increased in this sector since 1990.

SEK/MWh heat
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1990	1995	2002	2007
Oil	Electricity	Natural gas	Biofuel

Figure 4.2 Economic effect of policy instruments on heating fuels for residential and service sector

4. Policies and measures	43

Öre/kWh
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
District heating	Pellets	Oil		Electricity
Capital cost	Operation/maintenance		Price	Tax

Figure 4.3 Estimation of costs (2005-2007) of different heating alternatives in individual houses

The aggregate costs of different heating alterna- tives are affected by the level of energy and carbon dioxide taxes. Figure 4.3 shows how the annual costs of different alternatives have developed in recent years. As the figure shows, heating with oil would have been a competitive alternative without taxes.

Grants, for example for the expansion of and con- nection to district heating, have also stimulated de- velopment. Legislation influences energy use in new and existing buildings and energy consumption in new products. Significant European Community di- rectives in this area are the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive, the Ecodesign Directive and the Energy Labelling Directive. The EC directives are supplemented by national building regulations and targeted efforts to improve energy efficiency, prin- cipally in the form of technology procurements and grants for market introduction, as well as informa- tion at local, regional and national level.

Calculation of the aggregate effects of the economic instru- ments in the residential and commercial premises sector

The previously mentioned analysis with MARKAL- NORDIC also covered the residential and service sector. According to the model result, 1990 policy instruments together with high prices for fossil fu- els already in themselves provide sufficient incen- tives to phase out the use of oil in the sector. The effect of the tightening of instruments introduced af- ter 1990 does not appear in the model result, which does not, however, take account of the fact that pri- vate individuals often require very high profitability for the (additional) investments made for example in replacing heating systems. The tightening of instru- ments introduced after 1990 has sharply increased the profitability of investments in fossil fuel-free heating alternatives and has consequently in prac- tice contributed to the extensive reduction in emis-

sions of nearly 7 million tonnes/year we have seen in the sector since 1990, which is projected to rise to 9 million tonnes/year by 2020. On the other hand, it is difficult to distinguish the effect of present-day instruments from the effect that might nevertheless theoretically have arisen in the sector if 1990 policy instruments had been retained.

Building regulations

Building regulations have been used in Sweden since the 1960s among other things to set minimum re- quirements for energy use in new buildings. The building regulations for new buildings underwent a major change in 2006 and tightening of the require- ments for electrically heated buildings came into ef- fect on 1 February 2009. It is planned that the en- ergy requirements for new buildings will be tight- ened in further stages starting in 2011. A review of the implementing rules so that energy requirements will also have to meet in the modification of existing buildings is in progress. It is important that opportu- nities to improve energy efficiency are also taken in refurbishment.

Energy declarations

The requirement for energy declarations for build- ings is based on EC Directive 2002/91/EC on the Energy Performance of Buildings. Owners of individ- ual houses, multi-dwelling buildings and commercial premises are obliged to declare the energy use of the buildings and certain parameters in the indoor envi- ronment in an energy declaration. The intention is to promote efficient energy use and a good indoor environment in buildings by requiring the property owners themselves to learn more about what meas- ures are cost-effective to implement to improve the energy performance of the buildings. The system of energy declarations has recently been initiated as it did not come fully into force until 1 January 2009.A first follow-up of experience from the introduction of the system will be made in 2009.

Technology procurement

Technology procurement is aimed at promoting the development of energy-efficient products and serv- ices. Fifty-five different technology procurements were initiated and part-financed in the field of en- ergy between 1990 and 2005. The procurements are judged to have increased involvement among both purchasers and manufacturers, and new contact net- works have been created. The procurement has pri- marily covered the area of multi-dwelling buildings and commercial premises. A new feature for 2009

44 4. Policies and measures

is that technology procurement is also to be organ- ised for land-based industries. At least SEK 50 mil- lion is being invested in technology procurement and market introduction in 2009. The five-year energy efficiency programme 2010-2014 includes increased support for technology procurement and market in- troduction in the industrial, residential and service and transport sectors.

A combined estimate by the Energy Efficiency In- quiry (SOU2008:110) was that the efficiency-im- proving effect of previously implemented technol- ogy procurements and market introduction efforts in the residential and service sector may have amount- ed to around 2.3 TWh final energy.

Mandatory energy labelling

Mandatory energy labelling of domestic appliances has existed in the EU since 1995. Sweden has sup- plemented this labelling with enforcement at retail- ers. If half of all Swedish households are assumed to have chosen a fridge/freezer which is one labelling tier more efficient than they would otherwise have chosen, the labelling of white goods over the period 1995-2005 is estimated to have contributed an im- provement in energy efficiency of around 0.3 TWh final energy use33.

Energy labelling has been further developed through the Ecodesign Directive (2005/32/EC).The Ecodesign of Energy-Using Products Act came into force in Sweden in the spring of 2008. Under the Act, energy consumption and other environmen- tal factors become an even more important part of product development when certain minimum re- quirements are laid down.The Directive in principle applies to all energy-using products (except modes of transport) and covers all energy sources. In a first stage, conventional light bulbs will have to be phased out as a result of future requirements for lighting equipment. It is estimated that this may lead to an electricity saving of around 2 TWh in Sweden. Sev- eral product groups will follow, for example circula- tion pumps and television sets.

Investment support for conversion of heating systems and energy efficiency measures

Until the end of 2010 there is also support for con- version from electric heating with radiators in res- idential buildings and for the installation of solar heating. There was also support earlier during the period 2005-2008 for the installation of energy-ef- ficient windows or renewable heating systems in in- dividual houses, support for energy investments in public buildings and support for conversion from

33 Energy Efficiency Inquiry SOU 2008:110.

oil heating in apartment blocks, but these forms of support have come to an end. The support for con- version from oil heating has been deemed to have had a low effect on emissions and low cost-effective- ness, as it is only considered to have led to measures that would have been implemented anyway being brought forward34.

4.2.5Industrial emissions from combustion and processes (including emissions of fluori- nated greenhouse gases)

Industrial combustion emissions in 2007 totalled around 10.7 million tonnes, which is approximately 9 per cent lower than the 1990 level. It is the pulp and paper industry that has principally contributed emissions reductions in recent years.

Industrial process emissions and emissions of fluorinated gases in 2007 totalled 6.5 million tonnes, which is around 13 per cent higher than the 1990 level. Combined process emissions vary from year to year depending on economic climate, transformation of the industrial structure and how the use of fluori- nated gases has developed.

Instruments in the industrial sector

The instruments that principally influence com- bustion-related emissions from industry are the EU Emissions Trading Scheme, energy and carbon diox- ide taxes, the electricity certificate system, the pro- gramme for energy efficiency in energy-intensive industry (PFE) and the rules of the Environmental Code. Industrial process emissions will be almost en- tirely covered by the trading scheme with the expan- sion proposed from 2013. Emissions of fluorinated gases are regulated through the EC Regulation and Directive on emissions of fluorinated greenhouse gases.

Calculation of the aggregate effects of the economic instruments in the industrial sector

The calculation using the model tool MARKAL- NORDIC mentioned above shows that control by policy instruments in the sector would have been somewhat greater if the 1990 instruments had been retained, but that the EU Emissions Trading Scheme may lead to a greater instrument impact in the sec- tor in the longer term. The difference in emissions between the scenario with 1990 instruments and the scenario with present-day instruments is consistently small.

34 Swedish Energy Agency/Swedish Environmental Protection Agency, Den svenska klimatstrategins utveckling (Development of Swedish climate strategy), 2008.

4. Policies and measures	45

Proposals for reduced lowering of carbon dioxide tax for industry outside the EU Emissions Trading Scheme and for the introduction of energy tax on fossil fuels for heating in industry

As mentioned in Facts Box 4.5 on energy and car- bon dioxide taxes, it is proposed that the taxation of fossil fuels used in industry not covered by the EU Emissions Trading Scheme will be raised. The share of energy costs among the total costs of companies outside the scheme is generally low. It is therefore considered that a higher carbon dioxide tax than at present can be charged, without this meaning to any great extent that emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases move to other countries so that global emissions do not decrease. It is also pro- posed that energy taxation will be restructured so that energy tax is charged on fossil fuels according to energy content. It is proposed that fossil fuels used for heating in industry be covered by an energy tax in line with the EU’s minimum tax level for light fuel oil under the Energy Tax Directive.

The proposed tax increases are estimated to lead to combined emission reductions of 0.4 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2015 and 2020 be- yond projection.This estimate covers both use of fu- els for heating in industry outside EU ETS and the same use in agriculture, forestry and aquaculture.

Programme for energy efficiency in energy-intensive industry (PFE)

A policy instrument for energy efficiency in industry is the “programme for energy efficiency in energy- intensive industry” (PFE). By taking part in the five- year programme, companies receive tax relief for the energy tax on electricity they otherwise would have had to pay. In exchange, the company undertakes during the first two years to introduce an energy management system to implement an energy survey to analyse the company’s potential to take measures that improve the efficiency of energy use. The com- panies also undertake during the programme period to implement efficiency-improving measures with a repayment period of less than three years.

At the end of 2008 there were 110 companies taking part in the programme. These companies to- gether account for around a fifth of Sweden’s total electricity use. The participating companies submit- ted their first reports in the autumn of 2006. The report shows that the companies have undertaken to improve the efficiency of their electricity use by a total of 1 TWh per year at a total investment cost of just over SEK 1 billion. The measures often have a very short payback time. The profitability of the measures has been improved by electricity prices

for industry having risen sharply (doubled) over the past five years. It is therefore difficult to distinguish the specific effect of the PFE programme as there are likely to be efficiency measures that would have been implemented anyway if the programme had not been introduced.

The industrial plants included in PFE also have to take account of the life cycle cost in the purchasing of power-intensive equipment and in project plan- ning, modifications and renovations. The total elec- trical efficiency improvement among the PFE com- panies is anticipated to be greater than that reported to date.

Expanded energy advice and contributions to energy surveys in small and medium-sized enterprises

To stimulate increased energy efficiency in small and medium-sized enterprises, the Swedish Government plans to introduce a grant for energy surveys, an “en- ergy survey cheque” from 2010 at the same time as strengthening resources for energy advice to smaller companies. It is to be possible for the energy survey cheque to be given to companies with annual energy consumption exceeding 0.5 GWh/year.

Regulation and Directive on certain fluorinated greenhouse gases

Emissions of fluorinated greenhouse gases (F-gases) totalled around 1.3 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2007. It is estimated that these emis- sions altogether will decrease to around 0.4 mil- lion tonnes/year in 2020, principally as a result of the EU-wide regulation of certain fluorinated green- house gases and measures in aluminium production.

In 2006 the EU decided on a Regulation (No 842/2006) on Certain Fluorinated Greenhouse Gases. The Regulation came into effect on 4 July 2006. However, most of the provisions did not start to apply until 4 July 2007. During the same period decisions were also taken on a directive that regu- lates the use of HFCs in air-conditioning units in cars, Directive 2006/40/EC.

Implementation of the EU’s F-gas legislation in Sweden will lead to decreases in annual emissions of around 0.2 milliion tonnes of carbon dioxide equiva- lent/year by 2010 and 0.7 milliion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent/year by 2020 compared with if the legislation had not been introduced.

A government inquiry has proposed that an envi- ronmental tax on HFCs be introduced in Sweden to further lower emissions of F-gases.

46 4. Policies and measures

Facts Box 4.6.

Programme for a transport sector independent of fossil fuels in 2030.

•Energy and CO2 taxation that provide incentives for a more cli- mate-efficient transport sector

•Strategy for increased use of vehicle biofuels

•CO2-differentiated vehicle tax

•Successively tightened EU requirements for the carbon dioxide emissions of new cars

•Efficiency labelling of vehicles

•Incentives for eco-driving

•Better speed monitoring

•Applied research for the development of 2nd generation vehicle biofuels and electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids

•Requirements for long-term community and infrastructure plan- ning make a more climate-efficient transport system possible

4.2.6 Transport

Greenhouse gas emissions from the transport sector are equivalent to around 31 per cent of Sweden’s to- tal reported emissions of greenhouse gases and are dominated by the road-traffic sector. Unlike other sectors of society, emissions from the transport sec- tor have continued to increase steadily since 1990, despite increased energy efficiency and increased use of biofuels. This increase in emissions is explained by a continued rise in transport activity on Swedish roads, heavy-duty vehicles in particular continuing to increase in line with economic development. The in- crease in passenger transport activity, on the other hand, has come to a halt in recent years.According to the latest projection (Chapter 5), the transport sec- tor’s emissions will continue to rise until 2020 unless additional measures are implemented.This is a trend which makes it difficult for Sweden to achieve cli- mate targets by 2020 and 2050. The Swedish Gov- ernment has therefore adopted a programme of fur- ther tightening of policy instruments with the objec-

SEK
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1990	1992	1994	1996	1998	2000	2002	2004	2006	2008

Petrol, pump price (SPI)		Petrol tax

Diesel, pump price (SPI)		Diesel tax

Figure 4.4 Selling price and energy and CO2 taxes for diesel and petrol (annual averages). Nominal prices35.

35 Source: Swedish Petroleum Institute http://www.spi.se/.

tive of making the transport sector independent of fossil energy by 2030 (Facts Box 4.6).

The programme is based on the existing instru- ments in the climate policy implemented to date and consists of general economic instruments in the form of energy and carbon dioxide taxes combined with targeted instruments for more efficient vehicles and renewable fuels, as well as infrastructure measures targeted at a more transport-efficient society.

Cross-cutting policy instruments – vehicle fuel taxes

Petrol and diesel are covered by both an energy tax and a carbon dioxide tax. Value-added tax is also charged on the sale value.

Carbon dioxide tax on vehicle fuels was introduced in 1991 and has been raised in several steps since.The rise in and introduction of carbon dioxide tax have, however, been partially offset by a simultaneous re- duction in energy tax. The tax on vehicle fuels over- all has increased, but in 2007 and 2008 rises in total vehicle fuel tax were overshadowed by increasing product prices for petrol and diesel due to increased crude oil prices (see Figure 4.4). The increased prod- uct costs for petrol and diesel have further curbed the growth in transport, encouraged more energy-ef- ficient vehicles and eased the introduction of vehicle biofuels.According to the 2009 climate policy resolu- tions, energy tax on diesel is to be raised in two stages by a total of SEK 0.40/litre. [Fig. 4.4]

Targeted instruments: the renewable vehicle fuel strategy

The strategy for introducing renewable energy into the road transport sector contains a temporary ex- emption from energy and carbon dioxide tax for all vehicle biofuels. CO2 tax and the temporary exemp- tion from energy tax altogether today signify a cost advantage for biofuels over petrol of SEK 5.52/litre and over diesel of SEK 4.34/litre in 2009. The lo- cal climate investment grants (the ‘Klimp’ grants and before that the LIP grants) have also contributed to the production and use of biogas in local vehicle and bus fleets.

To improve the availability of vehicle biofuels, the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag) decided that with effect from 1 January 2006 all larger filling stations must sell at least one renewable fuel. Due to higher costs of installing pumps for gaseous fuels compared for example with ethanol, filling stations that wish to sell biogas have received extra investment support. The number of filling stations that supply a renew-

4. Policies and measures	47

able fuel has increased from 300 to 1300 since the re- quirement was introduced, and it is anticipated that by 2010 around 60 per cent of all filling stations will be covered by the requirement.The extra investment grant to biogas stations to date has been allocated to just over 60 new filling stations. Low admixture of ethanol in petrol has long been possible, while the fuel specifications for diesel were adapted for max. 5 per cent admixture of biodiesel with effect from 2006. Under the EC’s Fuel Quality Directive the fuel specifications will be amended to allow 10 per cent ethanol in petrol and 7 per cent in diesel by 2011.

Long-term initiatives in Swedish biofuels strategy have been research, demonstration and pilot sup- port for the development of new biofuels technol- ogy. Around SEK 120 to 170 million per year has been committed to research and development of bi- ofuels in recent years. In 2009 an appropriation was made for a further SEK 875 million over a three-year period for research and development of vehicle bio- fuels. Over the next few years Sweden is also increas- ing targeted research efforts in vehicle technology by around SEK 450 million a year, focusing on the de- velopment of electric and hybrid vehicle technology in the Swedish vehicle cluster.

Targeted instruments: composition of the vehicle fleet

Sweden also has several policy instruments aimed at influencing the design and choice of passenger cars.

To promote environmentally friendly cars, a green car rebate of SEK 10 000 has been granted on the new purchase of an eco-classified car over the period 2007-2009. Green-car classification covers firstly a category of vehicles that use E85 or biogas and sec- ondly vehicles that are very energy-efficient and do not emit more than 120 g CO2/km, which is equiva- lent to 0.5 l petrol per 10 km or 0.45 l diesel per 10 km. Petrol consumption of 0.92 l per 10 km applies to E85 vehicles, while the limit for biogas is 0.97 Nm3per 10 km. The green car rebate has been abol- ished with effect from 1 July 2009 and replaced by an exemption from vehicle tax for the first five years for new green cars.

Since 2006, Sweden has also differentiated the annual vehicle tax with respect to the vehicle’s CO2 emissions per km. The CO2-related vehicle tax is SEK 15 per g CO2/km beyond the first 100 g CO2/ km that new vehicles emit. This tax is due to be raised to SEK 20 per year per g CO2/km beyond 120 grams per kilometre by 2011. Light commercial ve- hicles and light vans will also be brought into the system of CO2-differentiated vehicle tax from 2011.

Around half of all cars sold in Sweden are bought by legal entities. Many of these are what are known as company cars which are used privately, where the benefit of using the vehicle is taxed. The benefit value on which the tax private individuals have to pay tax for the car benefit has been lowered for elec- tric and hybrid cars and cars capable of running on biofuels in order to increase the incentives to choose these cars.

A number of local benefits are also provided on the purchase of an eco-classified car, such as exemption from congestion tax in Stockholm and free parking in Stockholm, Gothenburg and Malmö. The value of the local benefits may amount to large sums, as free parking in Stockholm, for example, is worth at least SEK 7 200 per year.

In addition to the Swedish policy instruments, car manufacturers who sell cars in the EU have also adapted to the 1995 voluntary agreement between the European Commission and car manufacturers to achieve average CO2 emissions in new car sales of 140 CO2/km by 2008/2009 and 120 g CO2/km by 2012. The voluntary agreement and the target for 2012 were replaced in the EU’s climate package by a directive containing a requirement for new car sales with an EU average of 130 g CO2/km by 2015. The average for new car sales in Sweden was 174 g CO2/ km in 2008, and the average for the whole vehicle fleet was 200 g CO2/km. With spontaneous techni- cal development only (business as usual), the Swed- ish Road Administration estimates that the average for the vehicle fleet in Sweden would fall by 1 per cent per year to 169 g CO2/km in 2020. With the EU requirement for 2015, the Swedish Road Ad- ministration estimates that the average will instead fall to 159 g CO2/km.

ktonnes CO2/year
25 000
20 000
15 000
10 000
5 000
0
1990	1995	2000	2005	2010	2015	2020
Emissions with 1990 tax level (nominal)				Actual emissions and projection

Figure 4.5 Historical emissions of carbon dioxide from the road transport sector and estimated emissions without intro- duced vehicle fuel taxes since 199036.

36 Calculation with sliding elasticities from 0.3 to 0.7 for passenger traffic and from 0.1 to 0.2 for commercial traffic.

48 4. Policies and measures

TWh
5
4,5
4
3,5
3
2,5
2
1,5
1
0,5
0
2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008

Biogas	Biodiesel low-blend	Ethanol low-blend
Biodiesel other	E85
Biodiesel other	E85

Figure 4.6 Energy supply for vehicles37.

L/100km
8,5
8
7,5
7
6,5
6
5,5
5
2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007

Figure 4.7 Average fuel consumption of new cars in Sweden

Effects of all policy instruments

Emissions from the transport sector in Sweden have continued to increase despite new policy instru- ments having been introduced and the existing pol- icy instruments having been tightened in the sector. Without this development, the increase would prob- ably have been significantly greater as transport vol- umes increased by more than emissions over the pe- riod. Figure 4.5 shows the actual emissions and an estimate of what the trend in emissions would have been like without the tax increases implemented since 1990. The decision to raise the taxes in line with inflation, taken in 1994, is also counted among such tax increases.The combined effect on emissions of the increases in tax on diesel and petrol since 1990 is estimated to be 1.9 milliion tonnes CO2/year in 2010 and 2.4 milliion tonnes CO2/year lower emis- sions in 2020 than if the 1990 nominal tax level had been retained. The calculation does not include the tax increases which it is now proposed will be imple- mented in two stages for diesel. These increases are estimated to reduce emissions by a further 0.1 milli- ion tonnes/year for 2015 and by 0.2 milliion tonnes/ year for 2020.

37 Swedish Energy Agency ER2008:01.

The targeted policy instruments had a great impact over the period in particular on the introduction of biofuels and on the energy efficiency of the car fleet. Figure 4.6 shows how ethanol, biodiesel and biogas have increased since the biofuels strategy was intro- duced. Biofuels in 2008 altogether replaced around 4.3 TWh of petrol and diesel equivalent to 1.1 milli- ion tonnes of CO2 emissions. Use is expected to con- tinue to increase, and in principal alternative pro- jection (see Chapter 5) petrol and diesel equivalent to 1.8 milliion tonnes are replaced in 2010, and 3 milliion tonnes in 2020 on the assumption that the present-day tax exemption is extended beyond 2013.

The energy efficiency of the Swedish passenger car fleet has improved from a relatively low level in recent years. The fuel consumption of new cars has fallen in the past 3-4 years (Figure 4.7). Part of the explanation is that the proportion of diesel-powered cars, which are more energy-efficient than petrol ve- hicles, has risen sharply. [Fig. 4.7]

It is difficult to weigh the many different factors that have steered towards improved fuel efficiency, but a rise in crude oil prices and increased awareness of the problem of climate change in society have contributed.An evaluation suggests that the targeted policy instruments in the direction of greater energy efficiency are the CO2-differentiated vehicle tax and the rising fuel taxes of significance.The “ACEA com- mitment” (140 g CO2/km) has also contributed38.

Other vehicle-specific instruments such as the green car rebate, the change in benefit value for envi- ronmentally classified company cars and local instru- ments such as subsidised parking have had very little effect in guiding towards energy efficiency and have instead encouraged flexible-fuel vehicles.

Consideration of climate in long-term infrastructure planning

The long-term planning for the development of new infrastructure has an impact on the prospects of so- ciety fulfilling its objectives for accessibility in an efficient and environmentally friendly way. Swed- ish infrastructure planning is based on all invest- ments having to be economically viable and exter- nal factors being internalised in the cost estimate, including greenhouse gas emissions. Infrastructure planning is coordinated between the various trans- port agencies to utilise opportunities for intermodal measures and coordination gains. A transport mode- transcending approach is of key importance in the planning of measures to handle the combined envi- ronmental effects of the transport system. This ap-

38 Vilka styrmedel har ökat personbilarnas energieffektivitet i Sverige? (What policy instruments have improved the energy efficiency of cars?), Sprei F, 2009.

4. Policies and measures	49

proach is to be strengthened, and from 2009 infra- structure planning has been brought under a new government agency.

4.2.7 Waste

Methane emissions from landfills are estimated to have decreased by around 1.2 million tonnes of car- bon dioxide equivalent between 1990 and 2007. This is equivalent to a decrease of just over 40 per cent. Methane emissions have steadily declined since the start of the 1990s, firstly as a result of expansion of the collection and disposal of methane gas from landfills and secondly as a result of a decrease in the quantity of organic material sent to landfill. At the same time there has been a substantial increase in the recovery of materials and energy recovery through waste incin- eration. It is anticipated that emissions from landfills will continue to decline sharply over the next ten-year period, see Chapter 5. The introduction of produc- er responsibility for a number of different groups of articles, for example packaging, waste paper, station- ery and tyres, has contributed to a rise in recycling. The requirement for municipal waste planning, which was introduced in 1991, has probably also contribut- ed to this trend. A tax on waste sent to landfill was introduced in 2000, and a ban on the landfilling of separated combustible (2002) and organic material (2005) has subsequently been introduced. The bans have been implemented gradually as exemptions have been granted when treatment capacity for the recov- ery of materials and for waste incineration has not yet been expanded sufficiently quickly. The bans have led to an extensive change in Swedish waste manage- ment in a short period of time. Landfilling of house- hold waste only accounted for 4 per cent of the total quantity of household waste in 2007. The remaining part of household waste in 2007 went for incinera- tion with energy recovery (46 per cent) or material recovery including biological treatment (49 per cent). A large proportion of organic industrial waste went for incineration with energy recovery.

Aggregate effect of the instruments in the field of waste

Sweden’s Third National Communication (2001) presented the result of an analysis of the combined effect of those policy instruments that have an im- pact on discharges of methane from landfills. The assessment included instruments introduced during the 1990s and instruments which at that time were planned to be introduced during the early 2000s and have since been introduced.The analysis showed that

emissions in the scenario with policy instruments de- cided upon at present would end up around 1.4 mil- lion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent lower than emissions in the scenario with 1990 policy instru- ments in 2010. The difference was estimated to be 1.9 tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2020.The result is still deemed to be a reasonable estimate.

While emissions from landfills have decreased, the incineration of waste in the district heating sector in- creased by around 6 TWh by 2007 in comparison with 1990 levels.The incineration of household waste leads to certain greenhouse gas emissions because it partly contains material of fossil origin, principally plastic.

However, the incineration of waste leads to further emission reductions, in addition to the reduced dis- charges of methane at the landfills, if it is assumed to replace electric and district heating that otherwise would have been produced with fuels with a higher content of fossil carbon, e.g. coal and oil.

The effect of the increased incineration of waste in Sweden since 1990 is included in the estimation of the combined effects of the economic instruments in the energy supply sector in Sweden presented in section 4.2.3.

4.2.8 Agriculture and forestry

Agricultural production causes greenhouse gas emis- sions via land use, livestock (in particular ruminants such as cattle and sheep) and manure management, as well as through the use of fossil fuels.

Emissions in this sector have decreased and are ex- pected to continue to decrease according to the pro- jection in Chapter 5, principally as a result of de- creased use of mineral fertiliser, manure and a re- duced number of dairy cows.At the same time as the number of cows is expected to decrease in Sweden, however, there is expected to be an increase in the consumption and importing of beef. Carbon diox- ide flows for land use, land-use change and forest- ry (LULUCF) represent both sources and sinks for carbon dioxide. LULUCF normally represents a net sink for carbon dioxide in Sweden.

Emissions of methane and nitrous oxide from agricul- ture in 2007 represented around 13 per cent of total Swedish greenhouse gas emissions. These emissions have decreased by around 10 per cent since 1990, principally because the number of dairy cows has de- clined together with the use of mineral fertiliser and manure. Emissions of methane and nitrous oxide ac- count for a significant share, around 20 per cent, of the Swedish greenhouse gas emissions not covered by the EU Emissions Trading Scheme.

50 4. Policies and measures

The “land use, land-use change and forestry”

(LULUCF) sector was a net sink for carbon diox- ide over the period 1990-2007. The sink ranged be- tween 21 and 36 million tonnes of carbon dioxide per year over this period and has decreased in recent years. The decreasing sink is probably due to forest felling having increased and to a large number of trees being felled by the storm “Gudrun” in 2005. The size and variation of, and the trend in, the sink in the LULUCF sector is principally due to chang- es in the carbon stock in the forests. Changes in the carbon stock in biomass have the greatest impact, but emissions of carbon dioxide from soil carbon are also significant.

The discharge of carbon dioxide from agricultural land, principally from organogenic soils, also contrib- utes to reducing the total net removal in the LULUCF sector. Emissions from organogenic soils are declining as these soils become covered in vegetation or are used as grazing land or for the growing of forage crops. The net discharge of carbon dioxide from arable land in 2007 totalled around 2.7 milliion tonnes per year, which is a decrease in comparison with 1990 when the discharge was estimated at 4.0 milliion tonnes.

Energy use in land-based industries principally con- sists of the use of diesel for agricultural and forestry machinery.This use has increased slightly since 1990 despite growth in the production volumes of the two sectors. The use of heating oil for heating of operat- ing premises and greenhouses, on the other hand, is decreasing. Total emissions from energy use are esti- mated in 2007 to have totalled around 1.6 milliion tonnes, evenly divided between the two sectors.

Policies and measures in the agricultural sector

There are relatively few policy instruments to date that are directly aimed at limiting greenhouse gas emissions in the agricultural sector in Sweden. Interest in reducing the sector’s climate impact has, however, increased, and the Government has taken a number of initiatives in recent years to limit the use of fossil fuels in the sector and to increase knowledge and encourage measures that lead to reduced greenhouse gas emis- sions from manure management and from land use.

The Swedish Board of Agriculture has been tasked with drawing up a combined action programme to reduce nutrient losses and greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture. This remit is due to be reported in 2010. Further restrictions on the spreading of fer- tiliser will be simultaneously introduced in 2010. Under the review of EU agricultural policy, addition- al resources have been earmarked to meet new chal-

lenges such as climate change and the production of renewable energy.

EU Common Agricultural Policy

The EU Common Agricultural Policy has a signifi- cant bearing on the extent, orientation and profit- ability of agriculture in Sweden. An agreement was reached in 2003 on a reform of the EU Common Agricultural Policy (MTR, Mid-Term Review). The reform in principle means that agricultural aid has now been decoupled from production.

The new rural development programme for the period 2007-2013 covers support for the develop- ment of rural areas, payments for environmental measures and aid to boost competitiveness in agri- culture, forestry, horticulture, reindeer herding and food processing. Each county administrative board has to prepare regional implementation strategies for the rural development programme. These strategies establish priorities for instance in investment and project aid in the programme.

The environmental payments have been designed to attain environmental objectives such as A Varied Agricultural Landscape. Zero Eutrophication, Thriving Wetlands, A Non-Toxic Environment and Sustainable Forests. Most of the measures and forms of payment introduced, in addition to a positive effect on inputs of nutrients to water, have a positive impact princi- pally in reducing nitrous oxide emissions.

In 2008 the Swedish Government decided to in- troduce investment aid for agricultural biogas pro- duction under the rural development programme 2007-2013, totalling SEK 200 million for the period 2009–2013. Investment aid is also provided for the growing of perennial energy crops that contribute to reduced greenhouse gas emissions in other sectors.

Aid for energy switching/improved efficiency of energy use in greenhouses and agricultural buildings may also be relevant for grants under the rural devel- opment programme.

The Agriculture and Fisheries Council in Decem- ber 2008 reached a political agreement under a review of the 2003 reform of the EU’s Common Ag- ricultural Policy, also known as the Health Check. The review meant among other things that funds from direct aid were transferred to the budget for rural development in order to meet new challeng- es in the areas of climate change, renewable energy, water management, protection of biodiversity and competitiveness in the dairy sector. A proposal for amendments and additions to measures and forms of payment in the Swedish rural development pro- gramme for 2007-2013 has now been developed.

4. Policies and measures	51

Some of the measures proposed are wide-ranging information and advice to strengthen knowledge among farmers and foresters of suitable measures to mitigate the climate impact of their operations and encourage production of renewable energy and sustainable removal of biomass for energy purposes. Additional initiatives include aid for investments in renewable energy and investments aimed at reduc- ing the climate impact of agriculture and other rural businesses and expansion of agri-environmental pay- ments to limit inputs of nutrients to water.

Changes in energy and carbon dioxide taxation for fuels used in the land-based industries

It is proposed that carbon dioxide tax on fuels con- sumed for heating in industry outside the trading scheme, agricultural, forestry and aquaculture activi- ties should be raised in accordance with the Swedish Parliament’s latest 2009 climate change resolution, see sections 4.2 and 4.5 above.

It is additionally proposed that the present-day re- funding of carbon dioxide tax for diesel in agricul- tural and forestry machinery be reduced in several steps. The first step in reduction is due to come into effect in 2011.

As well as the generally lowered tax level, com- panies in the present-day situation can also obtain further relief of carbon dioxide tax through what is known as the 0.8 per cent rule. This tax relief prin- cipally comes into effect for companies in the green- house industry. In the 2009 Climate Bill the Govern- ment gives notice that this rule will be completely abolished in 2015.

Policy instruments and measures in forestry

Measures in forestry which may contribute to re- duced climate impact are:

•Promoting a long-term increase in growth of bio- mass in the forests in order to bring about sus- tainable harvesting of renewable raw material and maintain or increase the forest carbon stock.

•Avoiding the use of forestry methods that increase greenhouse gas emissions and otherwise adapting forestry so that greenhouse gas emissions decrease.

•Replacing fossil fuels with biofuel

•Replacing energy-intensive materials with forest raw material

•Increasing the quantity of carbon stored in wood products

It is principally measures of the first two types men- tioned that affect the capture of carbon in forest bio-

52 4. Policies and measures

mass and soil, while the last three measures can con- tribute to lowering emissions in other sectors. Man- agement methods that have an impact on the carbon stock of the forests include length of rotation period, thinning, choice of tree species and fertiliser applica- tion. Longer rotation periods generally increase the carbon stock in the tree biomass,while the potential to replace fuels with biofuels from the forests decreases. Intensive fertiliser application in forests may increase growth in so doing increase the potential to replace fossil fuels with forest fuels, while also increasing car- bon sequestration in the tree biomass39. On the other hand, intensive fertiliser application may come into conflict with other environmental objectives such as biodiversity and reduced nutrient leaching40.

Politics, legislation and certification systems

Two overarching objectives have been formulated in Swedish forest policy, a production objective and an environmental objective.These objectives have equal status and mean that the forests must be managed so that they sustainably produce a good return at the same time as biodiversity is preserved and cultural heritage assets and social assets are safeguarded. The Government Bill “A Forest Policy in Line with the Times” (Government Bill 2007/2008:108) stresses the role of the forests for climate and the need for increased growth in the forests. The Swedish Gov- ernment is therefore now putting extra effort into production-oriented advice.

The methods employed in forestry are chiefly gov- erned in Swedish law by provisions in the Forestry Act and the Environmental Code. There are no spe- cial rules at present geared towards promoting in- creased sequestration of carbon in Sweden. On the other hand, application of current provisions directly affects the development of carbon storage in various ways. These include in particular:

•Provisions on forest stewardship etc. in the For- estry Act. Forest stewardship with measures that have been well adapted to the growing site for a good environment creates the necessary condi- tions for robust and vigorous forests with a high rate of growth, which is favourable to carbon stor- age in forest biomass.

•Provisions on land drainage in the Environmental Code. Applications for drainage permits are man- datory and are appraised by the county admin- istrative board. Ditching of peat bogs may entail increased emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, while increased forest produc- tion on this land may increase carbon removal in tree biomass. The Government has asked the

39 Högberg P, Nature 447, 781-782, 2007.

40 Larsson S, Lundmark T, Ståhl G; Möjligheter till intensivodling av skog (Options for intensive cultivation of forests, SLU (Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences), Final report on Government remit JO2008/1885, 2009.

Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences to in- vestigate how the filling-in of ditches affects flows of greenhouse gases.

•Provisions on nature reserves and habitat protec- tion in the Environmental Code and nature con- servation agreements. These create long-term for- mal protection not just for biological diversity but also for the carbon stock calculated as forest bio- mass. The Swedish forest, which in comparison to the boreal natural forests has a low average age, ad- ditionally has high carbon storage capacity, even a long time after set-aside through reserves, habitat protection and nature conservation agreements has taken place. The target in Sweden is for another 400 000 hectares of forest to be protected by 2010 in comparison with the 1998 level of approximate- ly 850 000 hectares of productive forest land. As this is exempt from felling, its ability to store car- bon in biomass and soil in the long term is greater than that of production forest. Alongside the leg- islation, the target for voluntary set-aside (an in- crease by 2010 of 500 000 hectares in comparison with 1998) in the FSC and PEFC forest certifica- tion schemes is favourable to carbon storage.

The Government emphasises that it is important now to analyse the conditions that need to be met for policy instruments and regulations that may be considered for forestry to contribute further to cost- effective fulfilment of the objectives of Swedish cli- mate policy. It is proposed that the analysis should cover studies of possible incentives to increase the capture of carbon in carbon sinks where appropri- ate and minimise greenhouse gas emissions from the soil.The potential measures have to be such as not to conflict with the production objective and the envi- ronmental objective for Swedish forestry.

Implementation of articles 3.3 and 3.4 of the Kyoto Protocol

Beyond the mandatory accounting of emissions and re- movals of greenhouse gases under Article 3.3, Sweden has decided to utilise the forestry part in Article 3.4 to calculate emissions and removals of greenhouse gases from land use (LULUCF). Sweden follows the crite- ria that apply as a definition of forest land according to the FAO definition and the IPCC’s good practice guidelines. The methodology and database for calcu- lating changes in carbon stocks have been developed. This has been previously reported by Sweden41.

Under the Kyoto Protocol, national legal or adminis- trative arrangements to ensure that implementation of

41 Sweden’s initial report under the Kyoto Protocol, calculation of assigned amount, Dec 2006.

Articles 3.3 and 3.4 also contributes to the preservation of biodiversity and conservation of natural resources have to be reported in the national communication. Sweden’s current forest policy puts great emphasis on conservation of forests as a natural resource and for the preservation of biodiversity. Under the Forestry Act, the forests have to be managed and removal of forest has to take place so that it contributes to sustainable forestry, which means that felling at most can amount to the annual growth. The rules of environmental leg- islation on nature reserves and habitat protection pro- vide long-term formal protection for biologically valu- able forest areas, and under the Forestry Act the forests have to be managed with measures that are adapted to requirements for a good environment. No need has been found for supplementary legislation to preserve biodiversity and conserve natural resources as a conse- quence of implementation of Articles 3.3 and 3.4. In the period since 1990 Sweden has annually reported a net sink from land use (LULUCF) which has substan- tially surpassed the maximum net sink of 2.13 milliion tonnes that Sweden is allowed to credit itself.The total timber stock of forest land has increased by 0.5 billion m3 since 1990 without any special carbon capture pro- moting measures having been introduced.

4.2.9Transport by shipping and aviation in- cluding international bunkering in Sweden

Emissions from domestic shipping and aviation are declining in Sweden and only make up 2 and 3 per cent of aggregate emissions from domestic transport. Shipping is an energy-efficient mode of transport, and an opportunity is therefore being given for the extent of maritime transport to increase with increas- ing intermodal measures to support the development of an economically efficient and long-term sustain- able transport system. Domestic aviation increasing- ly competes with high-speed trains in Sweden and is therefore decreasing. Both flights within the EU and flights to and from the EU will be covered by the EU Emissions Trading Scheme from 2012.

Emissions from the bunkering in Sweden of fuels for international shipping and aviation, on the other hand, are larger and totalled around 9.8 milliion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2007. Emis- sions have increased by as much as 170 per cent com- pared with 1990, which is significantly more than the EU average. Fuels for maritime transport are increas- ing most. Emissions from international transport are not included in the Swedish national commitments under the Kyoto Protocol, as it does not cover these forms of transport.According to the provisions of the

4. Policies and measures	53

Kyoto Protocol, on the other hand, each party has to present an account of work undertaken within the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) and the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) to contribute to and/or implement decisions in these organisations that limit greenhouse gas emissions.

Sweden and the EU have pressed for measures to be taken to limit aviation emissions within the frame- work of ICAO. The objective is for these emissions to be included in an international climate regime after 2012. A suitable scheme is for an agreement in UNFCCC to set limits on a sector commitment for aviation and for ICAO to assume a principal role in the implementation of this commitment. If such an agreement is not reached and if ICAO is unable to agree on measures, the EU should proceed alone. Sweden is also pressing for other emissions from avi- ation with a climate impact to be limited, alongside carbon dioxide. Emissions of nitrogen oxides should also be limited as a first step.

Sweden has assisted in work in the IMO to devel- op a design index for newly built ships. This index is intended to be usable as a basis for economic instru- ments. Sweden has also assisted in efforts to develop operating indices for existing ships. Sweden accords high priority to the work of the IMO on limiting emissions of nitrogen oxides and sulphur and con- siders these measures also to be favourable from the point of view of climate change. Sweden is continuing to work within IMO for a decision in principle to be taken and for specific measures that limit emissions to be presented in Copenhagen. Sweden considers that it would also be appropriate for international ship- ping, as well as for aviation, for the sector to be subject to international regulation through a special commit- ment and for IMO to be given a principle role in im- plementation. If this is not done, consideration should be given to whether emissions from shipping should also be included in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme.

4.2.10Efforts to avoid adverse effects of intro- duced policy instruments and measures in the country’s climate strategy

According to the provisions of Article 2 of the Kyo- to Protocol, each party with quantified commitments under the Protocol is to introduce policies and meas- ures to achieve the emission reductions to which it has made a commitment. The measures implement- ed are to be compatible with overarching objectives of sustainable development. Measures which would mean that all greenhouse gases regulated by the Pro- tocol can decrease and cover all sectors of society are

emphasised. The parties to the Kyoto Protocol are to aim to introduce policies and measures so that adverse effects are minimised. Such effects include adverse effects of a changed climate, effects on international trade and social, environmental and economic effects on other parties, particularly on developing countries.

In connection with the implementation of policies and measures, an impact assessment is carried out, including an environmental impact assessment as a basis for decision-making. Such an analysis as far pos- sible also includes assessing the risk of adverse effects in other countries.

Knowledge development has to contribute to sus- tainable global development.There are therefore also several examples of interdisciplinary research efforts focused on improving knowledge of effects global- ly (socially, economically and ecologically) of large- scale introduction of measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Sweden’s focus on increased use of bioenergy, both through increased domestic produc- tion but also through increased imports in particular from developing countries, has meant that this area has been specially prioritised in systems-science re- search in the country.

Results from research have also already influ- enced, and will in future influence, the development of policy. The special sustainability criteria devised for vehicle biofuels under the EU Renewables Direc- tive is one such example.

Both positive and negative effects must be tak- en into account. Sweden contributes to a number of measures being implemented that may have posi- tive effects on the prospects of developing countries adapting to climate change and implementing their own measures to reduce their greenhouse gas emis- sions. A description is given in Chapter 7 of such ef- forts in the areas of technology transfer, knowledge building and support for adaptation measures.

Finally Sweden wishes to emphasise that its cli- mate strategy with its broad focus on many different types of measures covering the majority of sectors of society (both in and outside the country) and all the greenhouse gases governed by the Kyoto Protocol has a formulation which fundamentally limits (mini- mises) the risk of adverse effects.

4.3Work on project-based flexible mechanisms under the Kyoto Protocol

Sweden is involved in work on the project-based mechanisms under the Kyoto Protocol, CDM and JI. The task of the Swedish CDM and JI programme is

54 4. Policies and measures

to contribute to developing CDM and JI as effective climate policy instruments, contribute to cost-effec- tive reductions in greenhouse gases and contribute to sustainable development in the host countries. The programme has been focused firstly on assistance with individual projects and secondly on participa- tion in multilateral CDM and JI funds. The individ- ual projects are in the areas of renewable energy and energy efficiency. Funds have been chosen on the ba- sis of their focus on project types, an endeavour to ensure geographical spread of projects and the pos- sibility of exerting influence on the work of the fund.

The Swedish Parliament has granted appropri- ations for international climate initiatives in CDM and JI totalling around SEK 1200 million for the pe- riod up to 2011.

Sweden at present has signed agreements with 24 individual CDM projects and 2 JI projects:

•3 biofuel-based combined heat and power projects in Brazil

•1 biofuel-based power station in Tamil Nadu, India

•1 energy efficiency project in the cement industry in China

•15 wind energy projects in China

•3 biogas projects in China

•1 small-scale hydropower plant in Malaysia

•1 energy efficiency project through installation of turbines for electricity production in a district heating plant in Romania (conversion to com- bined heat and power)

•1 wind energy project in Estonia

Sweden is taking part in five multinational funds.

1)Testing Ground Facility (TGF) – established in the framework of regional energy cooperation in the Baltic Sea region, Baltic Sea Region Energy Cooperation (BASREC). The purpose of TGF is to finance joint JI projects in the Baltic Sea region. Sweden’s share of the fund is nearly EUR 3.5 mil- lion out of the total of EUR 35 million. As well as the Baltic Sea countries, private companies are covered by the fund.

2)Prototype Carbon Fund (PCF) – this fund was launched by the World Bank in 1999 and has con- tributed to the development of climate projects under CDM and JI and to the regulations for these. The Fund’s total capital is USD 180 mil- lion, and Sweden has contributed USD 10 million.

3)Asia Pacific Carbon Fund (APCF) – the CDM fund of the Asian Development Bank, focusing on developing countries in Asia and the Pacific Ocean area, including ‘least developed countries’ which find it difficult to launch CDM projects because

of various types of barriers. With regard to project types, the Fund is focused on renewable energy production, energy efficiency and collection of methane gas. Emission reduction units are prin- cipally acquired from the CDM projects through advance payments, which makes it possible for fi- nancially weaker CDM projects also to be imple- mented. Sweden has contributed along with six other European countries, with a total of USD 152 million. Sweden’s share is USD 15 million.

4)Future Carbon Fund (FCF) – the newly launched fund of the Asian Development Bank aimed at set- ting up projects after the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol in order to contribute to the market continuing to develop despite the uncer- tainties being caused at present by the lack of in- ternational regulations for the period after 2012. Like the APCF fund, FCF is focused on projects in renewable energy production, energy efficien- cy and collection of methane gas, and applies ad- vance payment in acquisitions of emission reduc- tion units. Sweden’s contribution to the Fund to- tals USD 20 million. In addition to Sweden two other European countries are taking part in the fund, which is still open to additional participants.

5)Multilateral Carbon Credit Fund (MCCF) – ad- ministered by the European Development Bank and the European Investment Bank. The Fund is focused on CDM and JI projects in energy effi- ciency, transition to renewable fuels and renew- able energy in Central Asia and Eastern Europe. The participants in the Fund are both national governments and private companies. The Fund’s total capital is EUR 165 million, and Sweden has contributed EUR 2 million.

The total funding granted by the Swedish Parliament for the period 2003-2011 is expected to generate 11- 14 million emission reduction units for Sweden.

4.4Cost-effectiveness of policies and measures in Swedish climate strategy

4.4.1 Cost-effectiveness of instruments

Sweden’s Fourth National Communication on Cli- mate Change (Chapter 4.4) contained a theoretical examination of the concept of cost-effectiveness and policy instruments. It was emphasised that the pri- mary aspect is to establish what objective the instru- ment is intended to contribute towards and to relate the instrument’s emission reduction to the economic costs generated by the instrument.

4. Policies and measures	55

Overarching conclusions were that cross-cutting in- struments such as taxes and emissions trading which impose the same marginal cost of emissions on all actors have good prospects of attaining high cost- effectiveness. The more the marginal costs vary for measures to reduce emissions and the more sectors of society and countries are covered by the instrument, the greater the efficiency gains that can be expected compared with other types of instruments. In prac- tice there is, however, a risk of cross-cutting economic instruments, because of a conflict with other societal objectives, not always being designed in a theoretically desirable way, which may reduce their effectiveness. This may apply to conflicts for example with energy policy objectives, business policy objectives (competi- tiveness of industry) and regional policy objectives.

This may justify the cross-cutting instruments being supplemented by targeted instruments to eliminate market obstacles, for example instruments to contribute to technological development and market introduction or to provide a knowledge-rais- ing effect for potential measures. In addition, climate policy instruments often interact with instruments introduced in other policy areas to attain other soci- etal objectives that also contribute to reduced green- house gas emissions. The synergistic effects of these instruments may in some cases lead to the climate objectives being attained with greater cost-effec- tiveness. This may apply for example in the areas of energy, agriculture and waste.

Globally very large reductions in emissions are required if it is to be possible to achieve the ‘two- degree target’. Sweden considers a responsible and cost-effective climate policy to mean that interna- tional emission reductions are supplemented by ini- tiatives that support emission reduction measures in developing countries, among other ways through flexible mechanisms. Investments in developing countries with low costs per kg emission reduction have the effect that global objectives can be attained at a lower total cost. Countries that have not in- troduced instruments for efficient use of energy, to move away from fossil fuels and from emissions of other greenhouse gases, can often implement emis- sion reduction measures at lower cost than countries that have set a high price for greenhouse gas emis- sions. At the same time, these investments contrib- ute to making developing countries better able to develop an energy system based on efficient and re- newable energy supply and not locked into high fos- sil-dependent energy use.

Sweden has therefore chosen a climate policy that balances efforts to reduce emissions in the country

with efforts in other countries under the flexible mechanisms of the Kyoto Protocol.

4.4.2Estimated costs of measures implemented as a consequence of Swedish climate- policy instruments

Several of the instruments that contribute to re- duced greenhouse gas emissions are also aimed at at- taining other societal objectives. When instruments additionally interact in a sector or area of use, it is a complex task to distinguish individual effects of the instruments.There is uncertainty over differentiating effects of the instrument from other external chang- es having effects on emissions, for example energy prices and spontaneous technological development. There is also uncertainty on transaction costs that arise among the actors and estimation of the effect of the instruments on the national macroeconomy.

A rough indication of the cost-effectiveness of the complete combined climate strategy can neverthe- less be given by effects and costs being estimated for the technical measures implemented as a result of the instruments or packages of instruments in- troduced. Figure 4.8 presents the result of a calcu- lation of the costs of a selection of conversion and new-investment measures in electricity and heat- ing supply implemented over the period 1990-2007 in Sweden. An assessment has been made for each measure of the annual aggregate emission reduction it has led to over the period. The height of the bar for the measure concerned shows the calculated cost of the measure on the Y-axis, while the width of the bar shows the estimated annual emission reduction from the measure on the X-axis. The costs of the measures have been calculated without policy in- struments such as taxes and grants and with 4 per cent cost of capital, which reflects a macroeconomic perspective and not the costing for an investor. The costs of measures in the figure thus do not coincide with the cost to the households or companies that have implemented the measures.

The result largely depends on what fuel costs and therefore what differences in price between differ- ent fuels have been assumed to apply during the period. The fuel costs in the calculations are close to the 1990-2007 average. The difference in fuel prices over the period (the relative prices) varied most be- tween biofuels and oil and less between coal and bi- ofuels. As a result, the costs of measures in which coal is replaced varied quite little over the period, while equivalent costs of measures where oil is re- placed fell sharply in line with rising oil prices, even

56 4. Policies and measures

SEK/kg CO2

2,5

1,5

0,5

New waste-fired CHP

Oil to district heating, multi-dwelling buildings

Electricity to heat pump, individual houses

Hot-water boiler from coal to woodchips

Oil to district heating, individual houses

Oil to district heating, comm. premises

Electric boiler to bio-hot water boiler

Wind power on-shore 5 MW

New natural gas CHP 40 MW

CHP conv. coal to bio

New bio CHP 80 MW

New bio CHP 30 MW

New bio CHP, 10 MW

0
0
0	2000	4000	6000	8000	10000	12000	14000	16000		18000			20000 Figure 4.8 Estimated cost of
-0,5														measure and annual emission
-0,5						ktonnes in CO2 equiv./year
						ktonnes in CO2 equiv./year
-1									Oil to biofuel, individual houses		Oil to heat pump, individual houses	Electricity to heat pump, comm. premises		reduction for different typical
-1														reduction for different typical
														measures in electricity and
-1,5		The estimations relate to the cost of technical measures over the												measures in electricity and
-1,5		period 1990-2007 with a cost of capital of 4% and with coal												heating supply implemented
		period 1990-2007 with a cost of capital of 4% and with coal												heating supply implemented
-2		condensing as marginal electricity.												in Sweden 1990-2007
-2		condensing as marginal electricity.												in Sweden 1990-2007
		The results are particularly sensitive to fuel costs and assumed
		marginal electricity.

to negative values (profitable measures for society), as biofuel prices did not increase to the same extent. The alternative investment for measures in electric- ity production has been assumed to be coal condens- ing in Sweden (see Section 4.2.3).

The diagram shows estimated historical costs of measures and does not represent an estimation of future costs of measures.

There are sources of error and limitations in the method and the data. The effects of fuel conversions may be overestimated as they do not take account of the fact that energy-efficiency measures have also been taken, reducing total energy use. At the same time there are additional conversion measures which it has not been possible to calculate owing to lim- itations in the statistics. An average energy price has been adopted in the calculations for the whole period, but the measures may very well not have been implemented until the electricity and fossil fuel prices were higher than the average or until the price ratio between fossil and renewable fuels was most fa- vourable. A large proportion of the conversion from oil in the residential sector, for example, took place during the 2000s when oil prices were high.

It is worth noting that the costs of the measures in most cases are substantially lower than the level that has applied for carbon dioxide tax during the 2000s in Sweden. Carbon dioxide tax has thus been at such a level that it has been able comfortably to overcome:

•households and companies demanding a greater return on their investments (than central govern- ment),

•transaction costs,

•other market obstacles.

The cost of combined heat and power from waste becomes particularly low in the calculation because the operation of a waste incinerator generates rev- enue as a special treatment charge can be levied at the installations.

4.5Instruments taken out of use

In comparison with the account given in the Fourth National Communication only one instrument has been taken out of use and replaced by another in- strument. A small number of instruments have been introduced and concluded between the fourth and fifth national communications. These are mentioned in Chapter 4.

Table 4.3 Instruments taken out of use since the Fourth

National Communication

Instruments	Primarily replaced by
Local climate investment grants	Delegation for Sustainable
(Klimp)	Cities

4. Policies and measures	57

4.6Summary table of instruments

Estimated reduction in million tonnes

Greenhouse

Administering

CO2e per year compared with 1990

Name of measure/

gas primarily

Type of

Status of

government agency

(N.E. = not estimated)

instrument

Primary purpose

concerned

instrument

2005

2010

2015

2020

Cross-sectoral instruments

Local investment

Change-over to eco-

All

Economic

Concluded

Swedish Environ-

Up to 1

programme (LIP)

logical sustainability

(1998-

mental Protection

at local level

2008)

Agency

Climate investment

Subsidies for

All

Economic

Concluded

Swedish Environ-

Up to

Up to 1

programme (KLIMP)

projects that reduce

(2003-

mental Protection

0.5

0.8

climate impact

2008)

Agency

Delegation for Sustain-

Change-over to eco-

All

Economic

Ongoing

National Board of

N.E.

able Cities

logical sustainability

(2009-

Housing, Building

at local level

and Planning

Environmental Code

Ecologically sustain-

All

Legislation

Ongoing

Swedish Environ-

N.E.

able development

(1999-

mental Protection

Agency

Climate information

Increased knowl-

All

Information

Concluded

Swedish Environ-

N.E.

campaign

edge of problem of

(2002-

mental Protection

climate change

2003)

Agency

Research and

Development of

All

Economic

Ongoing

Swedish Energy

N.E.

development

technology with very

1990-

Agency (princi-

low climate impact

pally)

Production of electricity and district heating

Energy tax

Improve efficiency

Carbon

Economic

Ongoing

Swedish Tax

of energy use

dioxide

(57-

Agency

Carbon dioxide tax

Reduce use of fos-

Carbon

Economic

Ongoing

Swedish Tax

sil fuels

dioxide

(91-

Agency

The electricity

Increase supply

Carbon

Economic

Ongoing

Swedish Energy

certificatesystem

of electricity from

dioxide

(2003-

Agency and

renewable forms of

SvenskaKraftnät

energy

EUEmissions Trading

Reduce use of

Carbon

Economic

Ongoing

Swedish EPA and

Scheme

fossil fuels in the

dioxide

(2005-

Swedish Energy

trading sector

Agency

}

Residential and service sector

Energy and carbon

Reduce use of fos-

Carbon

Economic

Ongoing

Swedish Tax

dioxide taxes

sil fuels

dioxide

Agency

to 7

to 8

to 9

Building regulations

More efficient

Carbon

Legisla-

Ongoing

National Board of

N.E.

- standards for energy

energy use

dioxide

tion

Housing, Building

efficiency

and Planning

Energy declarations

More efficient

Carbon

Informa-

Ongoing

National Board of

N.E.

energy use

dioxide

tion on

(2009-

Housing, Building

legislation

and Planning

Technology

More efficient

Carbon

Economic

Ongoing

Swedish Energy

N.E.

procurement

energy use and

dioxide

Agency

increased use of

renewable energy

Mandatory energy

More efficient

Carbon

Informa-

Ongoing

Swedish Energy

N.E.

labelling

energy use

dioxide

tion

Agency

Investment aid for re-

More efficient

Carbon

Economic

Com-

National Board of

N.E.

placement of heating

energy use and

dioxide

pleted

Housing, Building

systems and energy

increased use of

and Planning

efficiency measures

renewable energy

County adminis-

trative boards

Industrial emissions from combustion and processes (including emissions of fluorinated greenhouse gases)

Energy tax

Economic

Carbon

Economic

Ongoing

Swedish Tax

dioxide

(57-

Agency

Carbon dioxide tax

Reduce use of

Carbon

Economic

Ongoing

Swedish Tax

fossilfuels

dioxide

(91-

Agency

The electricity certifi-

Increase supply

Carbon

Economic

Ongoing

Swedish Energy

cate system

of electricity from

dioxide

(2003-

Agency and

renewable forms of

SvenskaKraftnät

energy

EU Emissions Trading

Reduce use of

Carbon

Economic

Ongoing

Swedish EPA and

fossil fuels in the

dioxide

(2005-

Swedish Energy

Scheme

trading sector

Agency

}

58 4. Policies and measures

						Estimated reduction in million tonnes
		Greenhouse			Administering	CO2e per year compared with 1990
Name of measure/		gas primarily	Type of	Status of	government agency	(N.E. = not estimated)
instrument	Primary purpose	concerned	instrument	instrument	2005	2005	2010	2015	2020
Proposals for reduced	Reduce use of fos-	Carbon	Economic	Planned	Swedish Tax	-	-	0.4	0.4
lowering of carbon	sil fuels	dioxide		(with	Agency
dioxide tax for indus-				start
try outside the EU				2011-
Emissions Trading				2015)
Scheme and for the
introduction of energy
tax on fossil fuels for
heating in industry
Programme for energy	Reduce electric-	Carbon	Voluntary/	Ongoing	Swedish Energy	E.B.	E.B.	E.B.	E.B.
efficiency improve-	ity use	dioxide	negotiated	(2005-	Agency
ment			agreement
F-gas regulation		HFCs	Legisla-	Ongoing		0	0.2	0.5	0.7
including mobile air			tion
conditioners directive
			Transport
Vehicle-fuel taxes	Internalise the	Carbon	Economic	Ongoing	Swedish Tax	1.7	1.9	2.3	2.4
	external effects of	dioxide			Agency
	road transport in-
	cluding greenhouse
	gas emissions
Proposal for raised	Internalise the	Carbon	Economic	Planned	Swedish Tax	-	-	0.1	0.2
energy tax on diesel	external effects of	dioxide		2011	Agency
	road transport in-			and
	cluding greenhouse			2013
	gas emissions
Targeted instruments	Increase use of	Carbon	Economic		Swedish Tax	0.6	1.8	2.6	3
for introduction of	renewable vehicle	dioxide			Agency (mainly)
renewable vehicle	fuels
fuels
			Area of waste
Rules on municipal	Increase recycling of	Methane	Legislation	Ongoing	Swedish Environ-	0.8	1.4	1.7	1.9
waste planning, rules	waste and reduce to-	gas	and fiscal		mental Protection
on producer responsi-	tal waste quantities		instruments		Agency
bility for certain goods,
tax on landfilling of
waste (2000), prohibi-
tion of landfilling of
non-separated combus-
tible waste (2002) and
prohibition of landfilling
organic waste (2005)
			Agriculture
Targeted environmental	Reduced Climate	Nitrous	Economic	Ongoing	Swedish Board of	N.E.	N.E.	N.E.	N.E.
grants under rural de-	Impact, A Varied Ag-	oxide and			Agriculture
velopment programme	ricultural Landscape	methane
	and Zero Eutrophi-
	cation
		Land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF)
Provisions on forest	Attaining environ-	Carbon	Legisla-	Ongoing	National Board of	N.E.	N.E.	N.E.	N.E.
stewardship etc. in	mental objectives	dioxide	tion		Forestry
the Forestry Act.	and production
	targets for forests
Provisions on drain-	Biodiversity	Carbon	Legisla-	Ongoing	County adminis-	N.E.	N.E.	N.E.	N.E.
age in the Environ-		dioxide	tion		trative boards
mental Code.		and
		methane
Provisions on nature	Biodiversity	Carbon	Legisla-	Ongoing	Swedish EPA and	N.E.	N.E.	N.E.	N.E.
reserves and habitat		dioxide	tion		county adminis-
protection in the En-					trative boards
vironmental Code and
nature conservation
agreements
Voluntary set-asides,	Environmentally	Carbon	Voluntary/	Ongoing		N.E.	N.E.	N.E.	N.E.
partly through volun-	sound forestry	dioxide	negotiated
tary forest certifica-			agreement
tion systems (FSC
and PEFC)

4. Policies and measures	59

5Projections and aggregate effects of policies and measures

5.1Aggregate projections

A new projection of emissions and removals of green- house gases has been produced for this national com- munication and for the reporting to the EU in accord- ance with the requirements laid down in the EU deci- sion on the monitoring of greenhouse gases42.The main projection is based on the policy instruments adopted by the EU and the Swedish Parliament up to June 2008 and the economic future assessment applicable at that time.It means that the main projection does not include the EU climate- and energy package, nor the Swedish 2009 climate policy resolutions. The projection is the result of a number of assumptions, all of which are sub- ject to uncertainty and can be primarily regarded as an impact assessment of the assumptions made.The result should be interpreted with this in mind.

The method of calculating the projection is princi- pally structured to make a projection in the medium or long terms, which means that the projection for 2010 does not take account of more short-term variations.A partial sensitivity calculation for 2010 based on short-

Million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
1990 1991 1992	1993 1994 1995	1996 1997	1998 1999	2000 2001	2002 2003	2004 2005 2006 2007	2010	2015	2020
	Kyoto target				Total emissions			LULUCF

Figure 5.1 Historical and projected greenhouse gas emis- sions and Sweden’s Kyoto targets.

42 EU Decision No 280/2004/EC concerning a mechanism for monitoring Community greenhouse gas emissions and for implementing the Kyoto Protocol.

term variations 2008-2009 is therefore also presented. In addition to the projection, two sensitivity al- ternatives have been calculated for the energy and transport sectors and one for the agricultural sector and fluorinated greenhouse gas emissions in the in- dustrial processes sector. A projection with “addi- tional measures”, that includes EU-wide and nation- al policy instruments decided by June 2009, is also

presented in ch. 5.4.

Total greenhouse gas emissions in Sweden, calcu- lated as carbon dioxide equivalent, were around 65.4 million tonnes in 2007, excluding greenhouse gas emissions and removals from the land use, land-use change and forestry sector (LULUCF).The projection result suggests that total greenhouse gas emissions (excluding LULUCF) will be in line with the emis- sion levels of recent years up to 2010. The projection does not take account of the effects of the financial now in progress (September 2009) and the sharp eco- nomic downturn. Emissions are estimated to decrease further after 2010, and total greenhouse gas emissions in 2020 in the main projection are estimated to be around 12 per cent lower than in 1990. [Fig. 5.1]

The land use, land-use change and forestry sector (LULUCF) contributed over the period 1990-2007 to a net sink for Sweden and is expected also to do so by 2020. [Fig. 5.1, Table 5.1]

Approximately 80 per cent of emissions were carbon dioxide emissions in 2007, while methane emissions account for 8 per cent, nitrous oxide emis- sions for 11 per cent and fluorinated greenhouse gases for just under 2 per cent. Emissions of all gases decrease between 2007 and 2020, but the share of carbon dioxide emissions is expected to increase slightly to around 83 per cent in 2020. [Table 5.2]

With estimated GDP growth of 2.3 per cent as an annual average and a projected population growth of just over 0.5 per cent/year, the emissions projection

60 5. Projections and aggregate effects of policies and measures

Table 5.1 Historical and projected emissions and removals of greenhouse gases by sector (millions of tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent)

	1990	2005	2007	2010	2015	2020	1990-2010	1990-2015	1990-2020
Energy excluding transport	34.7	28.6	27.4	27.7	27.5	27.4	-20%	-21%	-21%
Transport	18.6	20.9	20.8	21.2	21.5	21.5	14%	16%	16%
Industrial processes	5.8	6.6	6.5	6.2	6.2	6.2	7%	7%	7%
Solvents	0.33	0.3	0.29	0.29	0.29	0.28	-12%	-14%	-15%
Agriculture	9.4	8.6	8.4	8.1	7.6	7.0	-14%	-20%	-25%
Waste	3.1	2.2	1.9	1.5	1.0	0.8	-52%	-67%	-76%

Total emissions (excl. LULUCF)	71.9	67.2	65.4	65.0	64.1	63.1	-10%	-11%	-12%
LULUCF	-32.1	-29.1	-20.5	-20.0	-20.2	-19.1	-38%	-37%	-40%
Total emissions (incl. LULUCF)	39.9	38.1	44.9	45.0	43.9	44.0	13%	10%	10%

Table 5.2 Historical and projected emissions of greenhouse gas emissions by gas (millions of tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent)

	1990	2005	2007	2010	2015	2020	1990-2010	1990-2015	1990-2020
Carbon dioxide	56.3	53.0	51.6	52.3	52.6	52.6	-7%	-7%	-6%
Methane	6.7	5.6	5.4	4.8	4.1	3.6	-29%	-38%	-46%
Nitrous oxide	8.5	7.4	7.2	7.0	6.7	6.4	-18%	-21%	-25%
Fluorinated greenhouse gases	0.5	1.2	1.3	0.9	0.7	0.4	84%	34%	-13%
Total emissions (excl. LULUCF)	71.9	67.2	65.4	65.0	64.1	63.1	-10%	-11%	-12%

Table 5.3 Projected greenhouse gas emissions per capita and GDP (real GDP at 2000 prices).

		1990	2005	2007	2010	2015	2020
CO2	eq. (tonnes) per capita	8.4	7.4	7.1	6.9	6.7	6.4
CO2eq (kg) GDP (SEK)		0.039	0.026	0.024	0.022	0.020	0.017
CO2eq (kg)/GDP (USD PPP)		0.36	0.24	0.22	0.20	0.18	0.16
CO2	eq. tonnes)/capita (incl. LULUCF)	4.6	4.2	4.9	4.8	4.6	4.5
CO2	eq. (kg)/GDP (SEK) (incl. LULUCF)	0.022	0.015	0.016	0.015	0.014	0.012
CO2eq (kg)/GDP (USD PPP) (incl. LULUCF)		0.20	0.14	0.15	0.14	0.13	0.11

indicates that emissions per capita would decrease to 6.4 tonnes of CO2 equivalent in 2020 [Table 5.3].

The projected trend in emissions differs between dif- ferent sectors of society.Total emissions from the energy sector are estimated to remain at roughly the same level over the period 2007 to 2020, while emissions from the transport sector are estimated to increase somewhat. Emissions by the agriculture sector have decreased to date and are estimated in the main alternative to con-

Million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent

25
20
15
10
5
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007	2010	2015	2020

Transport		Industrial processes

Energy supply		Residential and service

Industrial combustion		Waste

Agriculture		Solvents

Figure 5.2 Historical and projected greenhouse gas emis- sions from different sectors.

tinue to decrease to around 25 per cent below the 1990 level in 2020. Emissions from the waste sector are ex- pected to be halved by 2010 in comparison with 1990 and then to continue to decrease.Emissions from indus- trial processes including fluorinated greenhouse gases, on the other hand, are estimated to decrease somewhat from the 2007 level by 2020. [Table 5.1, Fig. 5.2]

Sensitivity calculations have been performed in some sectors, see section 5.3. As an aggregate for all the sectors, the result of the sensitivity calculations shows that total emissions are estimated to decrease by -11 per cent to -16 per cent by 2020 in compari- son with 1990. In addition to this there are the gen- eral uncertainties applicable to all projection assump- tions, for example on economic development, fuel prices, emission allowance prices, technical develop- ment etc., which are of great significance to the result.

5.2Projections by sector

5.2.1 Energy excluding transport

Greenhouse gas emissions from the energy sector43 excluding transport varied over the period 1990- 2007, but the trend points towards decreasing emis- sions. Total emissions from the energy sector are es-

43Emissions by the energy sector include emissions from the production of electricity and district heating, refineries, production of solid fuels, industrial combustion, fugitive emissions, other and residential and service including combustion in agriculture, forestry and fisheries.

5. Projections and aggregate effects of policies and measures	61

timated to be at roughly the same level in 2007 and 2020 and are a result of emissions from the produc- tion of electricity and district heating and refineries being estimated to increase while emissions from the residential and service sector and industrial combus- tion are expected to decrease. [Table 5.4]

Energy industries (electricity and district heating production, refineries, manufacture of solid fuels)

Greenhouse gas emissions from production of electric- ity and district heating are estimated to increase some- what from 2007 to 2020. The emissions increase as a result of increased production of electricity in par- ticular, but also of district heating. On the other hand, emissions decrease to a far lesser extent than produc- tion, due to partially changed composition of fuel used. Increased use of natural gas, fuels from the iron and steel industry and to some extent waste contrib- ute to increased emissions, but the increase is mitigat- ed by increased use of biofuel and wind power, as well

as reduced use of oil, coal and peat. Biofuel is used in particular in combined heat and power plants, which is favoured by both the electricity certificate system and the EU Emissions Trading Scheme. Electricity pro- duction is expected to increase more than the use of electricity between 2007 and 2020, which signifies a projected net export of 23 TWh in 2020. [Table 5.5]

Emissions from refineries are estimated to increase substantially between 2007 and 2020. The increase is due to increased production and increased emis- sions in production as a result of stricter product re- quirements. [Table 5.6]

Greenhouse gas emissions from the manufacture of solid fuels are estimated to remain at the same level as in the past few years by 2020, around 0.3 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent.

Residential and service sector

Emissions from the residential and service sector in- cluding energy use in agriculture, forestry and fish-

Table 5.4 Historical and projected greenhouse gas emissions from the energy sector (millions of tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent)

	1990	2005	2007	2010	2015	2020	1990-2010	1990-2015	1990-2020
Carbon dioxide	33.2	27.1	25.8	26.1	25.9	25.7	-21%	-22%	-23%
Methane	0.3	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.5	35%	42%	42%
Nitrous oxide	1.2	1.2	1.2	1.2	1.2	1.2	2%	5%	2%
Total emissions	34.7	28.6	27.4	27.7	27.5	27.4	-20%	-21%	-21%

Table 5.5 Historical and projected greenhouse gas emissions and underlying energy use in electricity and district heating production (millions of tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent)

							1990-	1990-
	1990	2005	2007	2010	2015	2020	2010	2015	1990-2020
Carbon dioxide	7.7	8.4	8.0	8.2	8.3	8.5	6%	8%	10%
Methane	0.02	0.07	0.07	0.09	0.09	0.09	312%	321%	330%
Nitrous oxide	0.3	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.5	0.4	41%	55%	42%

Total emissions	8.0	8.8	8.5	8.7	8.9	9.0	8%	11%	12%
Electricity production (TWh)	142	155	145	159		172	12%		21%
District heating production (TWh)	41	53	54	56		58	37%		41%

Table 5.6 Historical and projected greenhouse gas emissions from the energy sector (millions of tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent)

	1990	2005	2007	2010	2015	2020	1990-2010 1990-2015 1990-2020
Carbon dioxide	1.8	2.2	1.9	2.3	2.6	2.8	30%	47%	59%
Methane	0.001	0.001	0.001	0.001	0.001	0.001	54%	79%	54%
Nitrous oxide	0.02	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.04	25%	51%	75%
Total emissions	1.8	2.3	1.9	2.3	2.6	2.9	30%	47%	59%

Table 5.7 Historical and projected greenhouse gas emissions and underlying energy use in the residential and service sector and for combustion in agriculture. forestry and fisheries (millions of tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent)

	1990	2005	2007	2010	2015	2020	1990-2010	1990-2015	1990-2020
Carbon dioxide	10.3	4.7	3.9	3.5	3.0	2.7	-66%	-71%	-74%
Methane	0.24	0.26	0.3	0.29	0.3	0.3	18%	25%	24%
Nitrous oxide	0.28	0.24	0.25	0.24	0.23	0.23	-12%	-18%	-18%
Total emissions	10.8	5.2	4.5	4.1	3.5	3.2	-62%	-67%	-70%

62 5. Projections and aggregate effects of policies and measures

eries decreased over the period 1990-2007 and are expected to continue to decrease up to 2020. The decrease is principally due to oil for heating and hot water in the residential and service sector being re- placed by heat pumps, biofuel and district heating.

Emissions from energy use in agriculture are es- timated to decrease between 2007 and 2020 as a result of reduced use of diesel for machinery and reduced use of oil for greenhouses and other agri- cultural buildings. Emissions from forestry machin- ery are estimated to increase somewhat by 2020 as a result of increased felling. [Table 5.7]

Industrial combustion

Emissions from industrial combustion in 2007 were lower than in 1990, but they have varied over the years, principally due to economic fluctuations. A small number of energy-intensive industries account for a large proportion of emissions in the sector. The pulp and paper industry, the chemical industry and the iron and steel industry together account for al- most half the sector’s emissions.

Total energy use in industry is estimated to increase between 2007 and 2020 as a consequence of an as- sumed increase in production. On the other hand, emis- sions from industrial combustion are estimated to de- crease in particular because emissions from the pulp and paper industry are expected to decrease as a result of a switch from fossil fuels to increased use of biofuel.Emis-

sions from the engineering, mineral and food industries also decrease somewhat. On the other hand, emissions from the chemical, metal, mining and iron and steel in- dustries are estimated to increase somewhat. [Table 5.8]

Other and fugitive emissions

Emissions from“Other”(principally military emissions) decreased between 1990 and 2007. Over the period 2007 to 2020 emissions are estimated to remain at roughly the same level as in the past few years, around 0.2 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent. Fu- gitive emissions are estimated to increase somewhat from 1.3 million tonnes in 2007 to 1.4 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2020. [Table 5.9-10]

5.2.2 Industrial processes

Total emissions from industrial processes were high- er in 2007 than in 1990, but they varied somewhat, principally due to variation in production volumes and economic fluctuations. Carbon dioxide emissions are estimated to increase up to 2020, principally due to an assumed increase in production in the mineral industry and the iron and steel industry. Some of the increase in emissions from the iron and steel industry is also reported in industrial combustion and electric- ity and district heating production sectors.

Emissions of fluorinated greenhouse gases increased over the period 1990-2007 but are expected to de-

Table 5.8 Historical and projected greenhouse gas emissions from industrial combustion (millions of tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent)

	1990	2005	2007	2010	2015	2020	1990-2010	1990-2015	1990-2020
Carbon dioxide	11.2	10.3	10.1	10.2	10.0	9.8	-9%	-10%	-12%
Methane	0.05	0.04	0.05	0.04	0.05	0.05	-3%	4%	9%
Nitrous oxide	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.5	-10%	-10%	-11%

Total emissions	11.7	10.8	10.7	10.7	10.5	10.3	-9%	-10%	-12%
Energy use (TWh)	140	155	157	158		161	13%		15%

Table 5.9 Historical and projected greenhouse gas emissions from Other (millions of tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent)

	1990	2005	2007	2010	2015	2020	1990-2010 1990-2015		1990-2020
Carbon dioxide	0.8	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.2	0.2	-74%	-74%	-74%
Methane	0.001	0.0001	0.0001	0.0001	0.0001	0.0001	-86%	-86%	-86%
Nitrous oxide	0.03	0.005	0.005	0.005	0.005	0.005	-83%	-83%	-83%
Total	0.9	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.2	0.2	-74%	-74%	-74%

Table 5.10 Historical and projected greenhouse gas emissions from fugitive sources (millions of tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent)

	1990	2005	2007	2010	2015	2020	1990-2010 1990-2015 1990-2020
Carbon dioxide	1.1	0.9	1.2	1.4	1.4	1.4	24%	24%	24%
Methane	0.005	0.005	0.005	0.006	0.006	0.006	16%	16%	16%
Nitrous oxide	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	6%	6%	6%
Total	1.1	0.9	1.3	1.4	1.4	1.4	-23%	-23%	-23%

5. Projections and aggregate effects of policies and measures	63

crease between 2007 and 2020. The decrease up to 2020 is principally due to bans on use that are suc- cessively coming into effect for several areas of use of fluorinated greenhouse gases as a result of new rules in the EU. [Table 5.11]

5.2.3 Solvent and other product use

Greenhouse gas emissions from solvent and other product use decreased somewhat between 1990 and 2007. It is estimated that up to 2020 emissions will remain at roughly the same level as in the past few years, around 0.3 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent. [Table 5.12]

5.2.4 Transport

Greenhouse gas emissions from domestic transport increased over the period 1990-2007 and are ex- pected to continue to increase up to 2010 and then stabilise somewhat until 2020. [Table 5.13]

Road traffic accounts for the greater part of the emissions, and the total increase in emissions be- tween 2007 and 2020 is principally due to the rate of growth in transport-intensive industries with in- creasing heavy-goods transport and consequently increasing use of diesel. An increased proportion of light-duty trucks and passenger cars with diesel en- gines is also leading to an increase in diesel use.

The increase in emissions is mitigated by the fact that the use of petrol is expected to decrease up to 2020 and that the use of alternative fuels is expected to increase, in particular ethanol, FAME and biogas. In addition, energy efficiency is expected to increase in 2020, and aggregate emissions are expected to sta- bilise between 2015 and 2020.

Emissions from domestic aviation have decreased in recent years as a greater proportion of passenger traffic for shorter trips is being transferred to rail. This trend is expected to continue and emissions to decrease up to 2020. Emissions from domestic ship- ping are estimated to increase somewhat up to 2020.

Table 5.11 Historical and projected emissions from industrial processes (millions of tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent)

	1990	2005	2007	2010	2015	2020	1990-2010 1990-2015 1990-2020
Carbon dioxide	4.4	4.9	4.9	5.0	5.1	5.3	13%	17%	21%
Methane	0.006	0.007	0.007	0.007	0.008	0.008	26%	35%	44%
Nitrous oxide	0.9	0.5	0.3	0.4	0.4	0.4	-61%	-57%	-54%
Fluorinated greenhouse gases	0.5	1.2	1.3	0.9	0.6	0.4	84%	34%	-13%
Total emissions	5.8	6.6	6.5	6.2	6.2	6.2	7%	7%	7%

Table 5.12 Historical and projected emissions from solvent and other product use broken down by gas (million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent)

	1990	2005	2007	2010	2015	2020	1990-2010	1990-2015	1990-2020
Carbon dioxide	0.2	0.17	0.16	0.16	0.16	0.15	-34%	-36%	-38%
Nitrous oxide	0.09	0.14	0.13	0.13	0.13	0.13	46%	46%	46%
Total emissions	0.33	0.30	0.29	0.29	0.29	0.28	-12%	-14%	-15%

Table 5.13 Historical and projected greenhouse gas emissions from the transport sector (millions of tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent)

	1990	2005	2007	2010	2015	2020	1990-2010	1990-2015	1990-2020
Carbon dioxide	18.3	20.7	20.6	21.0	21.3	21.3	15%	16%	16%
Methane	0.1	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02	-76%	-80%	-84%
Nitrous oxide	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.1	3%	-2%	-5%

Total emissions	18.6	20.9	20.8	21.2	21.5	21.5	14%	16%	16%
Petrol (TWh)	47.7	44	41.8	40.8	37.9	34.5	-14%	-21%	-28%
Diesel (TWh)	16.5	30	32.4	34.3	38.5	41.6	108%	133%	152%

Table 5.14 Historical and projected greenhouse gas emissions from different modes of transport (millions of tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent)

	1990	2005	2007	2010	2015	2020	1990-2010	1990-2015	1990-2020
Road traffic	17.1	19.5	19.5	19.8	20.1	20.1	16%	18%	18%
Aviation	0.7	0.7	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.5	-18%	-20%	-22%
Shipping	0.6	0.6	0.5	0.6	0.6	0.6	2%	4%	7%
Rail traffic	0.1	0.07	0.08	0.07	0.06	0.06	-42%	-47%	-53%
Other*	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	7%	7%	7%

* Also includes machinery not used in industry. agriculture and forestry or households.

64 5. Projections and aggregate effects of policies and measures

Rail travel is expected to increase up to 2020, but emissions are not expected to increase as most rail services are electric. [Table 5.14]

5.2.5 Waste

Methane emissions from landfills have decreased since 1990 as a result of bans on landfilling, munici- pal waste plans and waste tax having contributed to smaller quantities of waste being sent to landfill. A further reduction has taken place through the collec- tion of methane gas. It is expected that emissions will continue to decrease up to 2020 as a result of a con- tinued decrease in quantities of waste sent to landfill and methane collection.

Carbon dioxide emissions from the incineration of hazardous waste and nitrous oxide from waste man- agement are low and are expected to remain at the same level as in 2005 up to 2020. [Table 5.15]

5.2.6 Agriculture

Emissions from the agricultural sector have decreased since 1990, and it is estimated that emissions will con- tinue to decline up to 2020. Nitrous oxide accounts for a somewhat greater percentage decrease than methane but also for a greater share of emissions.

The decrease is largely due to a reduced number of cattle, contributing to lower release of methane from the animals’ metabolism and reduced emis- sions of methane and nitrous oxide from manure. It is also expected that nitrous oxide emissions will de- crease as a result of reduced cereal acreage, reduced

use of mineral fertiliser, reduced nitrogen leaching and a change-over to slurry management.

A reduced number of dairy cows and a continued de- crease in the acreage of cereal cultivation by 2020 are principally a result of increased productivity, the trend in agricultural prices and continued adaptation to the latest reform of EU agricultural policy from 2005 with decoupling of aid from production. [Table 5.16-17]

5.2.7Land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF)

The land use, land-use change and forestry sector (LULUCF) contributed to an annual net sink in Sweden over the period 1990-2007. The sink var- ied over the period, but the trend points towards a somewhat decreasing sink from this sector.

The net removal from LULUCF is principally due to the removal of carbon dioxide in living biomass in forest, which in turn is affected chiefly by felling and growth. A projection has been calculated which is based on a scenario where the level of felling is equiv- alent to the sustainably fellable growth in production forest. Growth is assumed to increase by a further 2 per cent per year up to 2020 as a consequence of as- sumed climate change. The assumed increase in fell- ing which results in reduced removals of carbon in the forest biomass is counteracted by the expected increase in forest growth, resulting in a net sink by 2020 estimated to be at around the present-day level.

The size of the sink for the projection years is in- fluenced by what the level of felling is assumed. Fell- ing increased between 1990 and 2007 but on average

Table 5.15 Historical and projected emissions from the waste sector (millions of tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent)

	1990	2005	2007	2010	2015	2020	1990-2010 1990-2015 1990-2020
Carbon dioxide	0.04	0.09	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	27%	27%	27%
Methane	2.9	1.9	1.7	1.2	0.8	0.5	-57%	-72%	-82%
Nitrous oxide	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	-29%	-29%	-29%
Total emissions	3.1	2.2	1.9	1.5	1.0	0.8	-52%	-67%	-76%

Table 5.16 Historical and projected emissions from the agricultural sector (millions of tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent)

	1990	2005	2007	2010	2015	2020	1990-2010	1990-2015	1990-2020
Methane	3.4	3.3	3.2	3.1	2.8	2.6	-10%	-16%	-23%
Nitrous oxide	6.0	5.3	5.2	5.0	4.7	4.4	-16%	-21%	-27%
Total emissions	9.4	8.6	8.4	8.1	7.6	7.0	-14%	-20%	-25%

Table 5.17 Historical and projected emissions from the agricultural sector, broken down into enteric fermentation, manure management and agricultural soils (millions of tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent)

	1990	2005	2007	2010	2015	2020	1990-2020
Enteric fermentation	3.1	2.8	2.7	2.6	2.4	2.2	-28%
Manure management	1.1	1.0	1.0	0.9	0.9	0.8	-24%
Agricultural soils	5.2	4.8	4.7	4.6	4.3	4.0	-24%
Total emissions	9.4	8.6	8.4	8.1	7.6	7.0	-25%

5. Projections and aggregate effects of policies and measures	65

for the period was below the maximum sustainable level assumed for the projection period. The whole of the available growth has not been utilised during the period concerned, principally as a result of more intensive forestry. [Table 5.18]

5.2.8 International transport

Total emissions from international transport in- creased between 1990 and 2007 and are expected to continue to increase up to 2020, although not at the same rate as previously. The increase in emis- sions up to 2020 is principally due to increased emis- sions from internationally shipping resulting from in- creased exporting of goods.

Greenhouse gas emissions from international avia- tion are also estimated to increase up to 2020. This increase is explained by the fact that private con- sumption is expected to increase, bringing increased travel. [Table 5.19]

5.3Sensitivity analysis

Sensitivity analyses have been conducted for the en- ergy sector, the agricultural sector and fluorinated greenhouses gases in the industrial processes sector. The analyses have combined in an alternative with “lower emissions” and one with “higher emissions”.

The alternative with “lower emissions” includes:

•the energy sector’s alternative with higher fossil fuel prices

•lower emissions of fluorinated greenhouse gases

The alternative with “higher emissions” includes:

•the energy sector’s alternative with higher GDP

•the agricultural sector’s alternative with higher production

•higher emissions of fluorinated greenhouse gases

The result shows that in the alternative with low- er emissions there is a further decrease in emissions compared with the main alternative, to 16 per cent between 1990 and 2020. In the alternative with higher emissions the decrease is reduced to 11 per cent between 1990 and 2020. [Table 5.20]

5.3.1 Energy (including transport)

Two sensitivity alternatives have been developed for the energy sector including transport, one with high- er fossil fuel prices and one with higher GDP.

The prices for fossil fuels in the alternative with higher fossil fuel prices are around 30 per cent higher than in the main alternative. The higher fossil fuel prices are assumed to have implications for the Swed- ish economy, in the form of lower growth. In addition, electricity and district heating prices and the price of emission allowances are assumed to become higher. The assumptions are otherwise identical to those that apply to the main alternative (see Annex 5).

The alternative with higher economic growth as- sumes higher growth in GDP and therefore also higher growth in industry and increased transport mileage in the transport sector.

The result shows that the alternative with higher

Table 5.18 Historical and projected emissions and removals from LULUCF (millions of tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent)

	1990	2005	2007	2010	2015	2020	1990-2010	1990-2015	1990-2020
Forest land44	-35.4	-31.3	-22.8	-23,0	-23,2	-22,1	-35%	-34%	-38%
Cropland	4.1	2.8	2.8	3.5	3.5	3.5	-14%	-14%	-14%
Grassland	-0.6	-0.5	-0.4	-0.5	-0.5	-0.5	-30%	-30%	-30%
Wetlands	0.04	0.06	0.06	0.06	0.06	0.06	56%	56%	56%
Settlements	-0.1	-0.1	-0.1	-0.1	-0.1	-0.1	16%	16%	16%
Total emissions	-32.1	-29.1	-20.5	-20,0	-20,2	-19,1	-38 %	-37 %	-40 %

Table 5.19 Historical and projected emissions from international transport (millions of tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent)

	1990	2005	2007	2010	2015	2020	1990-2010	1990-2015	1990-2020
Shipping	2.3	6.7	7.5	7.8	8.2	8.5	246%	260%	275%
Aviation	1.4	2.0	2.2	2.3	2.6	2.8	71%	92%	107%
Total emissions	3.6	8.7	9.8	10.2	10.8	11.3	181%	197%	212%

Table 5.20 Historical and projected greenhouse gas emissions for different sensitivity alternatives excluding LULUCF (millions of tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent)

	1990	2005	2007	2010	2015	2020	1990-2010	1990-2020
Main alternative	71.9	67.2	65.4	65.0	64.1	63.1	-10%	-12%
Alternative with lower emissions	71.9	67.2	65.4	64.6	62.4	60.1	-10%	-16%
Alternative with higher emissions	71.9	67.2	65.4	66.3	65.3	64.3	-8%	-11%

44 Note that the projected values for forest land differ from the projection supplied under the EU monitoring mechanism in March 2009. The difference is due to the methodology used at that time not taking sufficient account of the variations in the ratio between the volumes, ages and carbon contents of the trees.

66 5. Projections and aggregate effects of policies and measures

fossil fuel prices, as expected, provides lower emis- sions up to 2020 while emissions are higher with higher GDP. With approximately 30 per cent higher fossil fuel prices, emissions are estimated to decrease further to 46 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equiv- alent by 2020, which is around 14 per cent lower than 1990 emissions. The higher fossil fuel prices in- crease the incentives to replace fossil fuels and im- prove energy efficiency. The rate of investment to phase out fossil fuels in industry is therefore ex- pected to increase, as are investments in energy ef- ficiency. In the residential and commercial premises etc. sector, all fuels are expected to decrease except for biofuel and district heating. Conversion of heat- ing oil to other methods of heating in the residential and service sector and agriculture is speeding up. A higher oil price in the transport sector is expected to mitigate the increase in passenger transport, and the rate of efficiency improvement for freight transport is increasing as a result of both improved technol- ogy and more efficient logistics.The higher fossil fuel prices lead to higher electricity prices, which favours wind power in this scenario.

In the alternative with higher GDP emissions are estimated to be 49.4 million tonnes of carbon diox- ide equivalent in 2020 or around 7 per cent higher than in 1990. Stronger economic growth means higher production in industry, which in turn results in higher energy use and higher emissions. Higher GDP also leads to higher imports and exports and in addition to private individuals having more money to travel around with. This will lead to greater demand for transport, both passenger and freight. [Table 5.21]

5.3.2 Fluorinated greenhouse gases

Fluorinated greenhouse gas emissions were estimated in the main alternative at 0.4 million tonnes in 2020 and are dominated by HFCs. A sensitivity analysis in- dicates that emissions of fluorinated greenhouse gases in 2020 may be in a range between 0.3 and 0.6 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent. The uncertainty in the analysis depends in part on the extent of leakage of refrigerants in the future. Even a modest change in the leakage factor used for stationary and mobile instal- lations results in relatively large changes. [Table 5.22]

5.3.3 Agriculture

One factor of uncertainty in the agricultural projec- tion is the assumption on productivity. A sensitivity alternative has been estimated with higher productiv- ity. The alternative is based on the growth in produc- tivity required to retain production as it was in 2007. The result shows that emissions do not decrease to the same extent as in the main alternative as production is higher due to increased profitability. [Table 5.23]

5.3.4 Partial sensitivity calculation for 2010

A sharp economic downturn began in the autumn of 2008, and a partial sensitivity calculation has been made of how the economic downturn may affect the emis- sion results in the long-term projection for 2010. Based on a long-term projection of the supply and use of en- ergy, sensitivity calculations of greenhouse gas emissions for 2010 have been performed for electricity and dis- trict heating production, industrial combustion, domes- tic transport and the residential and service sector.

Table 5.21 Historical and projected greenhouse gas emissions in the energy sector (incl. transport) in the main alternative and in the sensitivity alternatives (millions of tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent)

		1990	2005	2010	2015	2020	1990-2010	1990-2015	1990-2020
Main alternative		53.3	49.6	48.9	49.1	48.9	-8%	-8%	-8%
1.	Higher fossil fuel prices	53.3	49.6	48.7	47.4	46.0	-9%	-11%	-14%
2.	Higher GDP	53.3	49.6	49.9	49.9	49.4	-6%	-6%	-7%

Table 5.22 Historical and projected fluorinated greenhouse gas emissions in the main alternative and in the sensitivity alternatives(millions of tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent)

	1990	2005	2007	2010	2015	2020	1990-2010	1990-2015	1990-2020
Main alternative	0.5	1.2	1.3	0.9	0.7	0.4	84%	34%	-13%
Lower emissions	0.5	1.2	1.3	0.8	0.6	0.3	60%	20%	-40%
Higher emissions	0.5	1.2	1.3	1.1	0.9	0.6	120%	80%	20%

Table 5.23 Historical and projected emissions from the agricultural sector in the main alternative and in the sensitivity alternative (millions of tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent)

	1990	2005	2007	2010	2015	2020	1990-2010	1990-2015	1990-2020
Main alternative	9.4	8.6	8.4	8.1	7.6	7.0	-14%	-20%	-25%
Higher productivity	9.4	8.6	8.4	8.3	7.9	7.5	-12%	-16%	-20%

5. Projections and aggregate effects of policies and measures	67

The short-term projection also includes updated assessments of assumptions other than the economic trend to 2010 based on the latest statistics.

The calculations indicate that greenhouse gas emis- sions may be around 4 million tonnes lower in 2010 from these sectors compared with the main projec- tion we have presented. Emissions from industry and transport decrease in particular. The decline in pro- duction in industry leads to reduced energy use. Re- duced production in the iron and steel industry leads to fewer residual gases and lower emissions from elec- tricity and heating production.The recession also leads to lower demand for freight transport and therefore lower diesel consumption. Petrol consumption also decreases as a result of lower household consumption. No calculations have been made of how the economic downturn might affect the projection to 2020.

5.4Projection with additional measures

The climate policy decision adopted by the Swedish Parliament in July 2009 contained a strategy of policy instruments to ensure that the new national climate objective to reduce the emissions with 40 per cent by 2020 compared with 1990 for emissions outside the EU emissions trading scheme is attained. The princi- pal measures are increased taxes on carbon dioxide and energy. In the first stage this is done through:

•requirements for the carbon dioxide emissions of new cars which must not exceed 130 g/km up to the end of 2015 and must then fall to 95 g/km by 2020. It is estimated that this will reduce emis- sions by 1260 ktonnes.

•Aviation is included in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme with effect from 2012, which is estimated to result in a decrease in emissions of 65 tonnes for domestic aviation.

•Permitted low admixture of ethanol in petrol is raised over the projection period from 5 per cent to 10 per cent, resulting in an estimated decrease in emissions of 265 ktonnes.

These measures mean that emission decrease in the transport sector up to 2020, and total emissions are estimated to decline by 14 per cent by 2020 in com- parison with 1990.

The climate policy decision adopted by the Swed- ish Parliament in July 2009 contained a strategy of policy instruments to ensure that the national cli- mate objective is attained by 2020. The principal measures are increased taxes on carbon dioxide and energy. In the first stage this is done through:

•the sectors outside the trading scheme at present paying reduced carbon dioxide tax having to pay higher rates of tax,

•a shift in energy tax to heating fuels,which means that industry outside the EU ETS, district heating and agri- culture have to pay energy tax at SEK 0.025 per kWh,

•raised energy tax on diesel as a vehicle fuel,

•increased carbon dioxide differentiation of vehicle tax and extending carbon dioxide-differentiated vehicle tax to all light vehicles.

Examples of other measures of the strategy are environ- mental tax on F-gases, which a government inquiry in July 2009 proposed should be introduced on HFCs,and increased support for biogas production and dissemina- tion of new energy technology.Adjusted carbon dioxide and energy tax in industry outside the EU ETS and on heating fuels in land-based industries, raising of tax on diesel for vehicles by a total of SEK 0.40 in two stages (in 2011 and 2013) and changed vehicle taxation are overall estimated to give a reduction of 0.6 Mtonnes by 2020. Implementation of tax on HFC and support for energy technology dissemination and biogas production is in the climate bill estimated to reduce emissions by 0.5 Mtonnes by the year 2020. In addition, the carbon dioxide tax together with other economic policy instru- ments will in the future be adjusted to the extent and speed necessary to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases outside the EU ETS for the 2020 target to be reached. [Table 5.24]

5.5Comparison with the Fourth National Communication

The projection in the Fourth National Communica- tion (NC4) showed a decrease in total greenhouse gas emissions of 1 per cent between 1990 and 2010 and an increase of 6 per cent between 1990 and 2020.The projection presented here in the Fifth National Com- munication (NC5) uses different assumptions and es-

Table 5.24 Historical and projected greenhouse gas emissions in the main alternative and with additional EU instruments and additional national instruments in 2009 climate policy resolutions (millions of tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent)

	1990	2005	2007	2010	2015	2020	1990-2010	1990-2015	1990-2020
Main alternative	71.9	67.2	65.4	65.0	64.1	63.1	-10%	-11%	-12%
With additional EU measures	71.9	67.2	65.4	64.0	62.8	61.5	-11%	-13%	-14%
With additional measures in	71.9	67.2	65.4	64.0	62.0	60.4	-11%	-14%	-16%
2009 climate strategy*

* These additional measures are not included in reporting to the EU (March 2009).

68 5. Projections and aggregate effects of policies and measures

Table 5.25 Some assumptions for projections in the Fourth National Communication (NC4) and the Fifth National

Communication(NC5), see Annex 5

		NC4		NC5
	2000-2010	2010-2020	2005-2010	2010-2020
GDP (annual% change)	1.76	1.82	2.6	2.1
	2010	2020	2010	2020
Crude oil. USD/barrel	21	25	90	90
Coal (USD/tonne)	39	41	96	96
Natural gas USD/Mbtu	2.8	3.3	9.2	9.2
Emissions trading (EUR/tonnes CO2)	10	10	30	30
Electricity certificates (new renewable electricity)	10 TWh in 2010		17 TWh in 2016
Nuclear power (economic life)	40 years		60 years

timates based on trends over the past few years. The new projection shows a decrease in total greenhouse gas emissions of almost 10 per cent between 1990 and 2010 and a decrease of around 12 per cent between 1990 and 2020.

The projection for the energy sector excluding trans- port shows a greater reduction in emissions by both 2010 and 2020 in comparison with the projection in NC4. The difference is principally due to different assumptions, for example on fossil fuel prices, nucle- ar fuel and electricity certificates. [Fig. 5.3]

The new projection shows a smaller increase in emis- sions by both 2010 and 2020 for the transport sector. The difference is due in part to assumptions of higher fossil fuel prices and greater use of transport biofuels. [Table 5.25]

The projection for emissions from industrial process- es shows a smaller increase in emissions by 2020 than is presented in NC4. This is principally due to emis- sions of fluorinated greenhouse gases being estimated to be lower as EU legislation gradually introduces bans on the use of certain fluorinated greenhouse gases.

The projection for agricultural emissions shows a

Change in %

40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
100
Energy	Transport	Industrial	Agriculture	Waste	Total
		processes
	1990-2010 NC4		1990-2020 NC4
	1990-2010 NC5		1990-2020 NC5

Figure 5.3 Percentage trend in emissions between 1990 and

2010 and 2020 according to the projections in NC4 and NC5, total and by sector.

greater reduction in emissions by 2020. The differ- ence is due to a new projection by 2020 having been produced which points to further decreases in emis- sions by 2020. Only an extrapolation from 2010 to 2020 was reported in NC4.

The projection for the waste sector shows a some- what smaller decrease in emissions by 2010.The dif- ferences are partly due to the complete time series of emissions having been revised as part of data quality improvement.

Emissions from solvent and other product use do not decrease as much in the projection as they did in NC4. The difference is partly due to new assump- tions having been made, while the projection in NC4 was based on trend extrapolation.

The projection for the land use, land-use change and forestry sector points to a larger net sink than NC4. This is due firstly to the time series from 1990 to 2007 having been updated and secondly to a new projection with new assumptions having been made.

5.6Assessment of total effects of policies and measures

This section describes the aggregate effects of the in- struments introduced since 1990, which are report- ed and quantified in Chapter 4, and the effect of ad- ditional EU-wide instruments and additional nation- al instruments according to the 2009 climate policy decisions reported in Chapter 5.4.

Table 5.26 presents the total effects of implement- ed instruments which have been calculated. For the supply of electricity in Sweden the effect is calcu- lated as replacement of coal with renewable energy. For local investment programmes (LIP and Klimp) and policy instruments in the residential and service sector we have judged that the mitigating measures that have been implemented have also been affected by other policy instruments and the rises in fossil fuel prices that have occurred since 2000. For local invest-

5. Projections and aggregate effects of policies and measures	69

Table 5.26 Estimated effects of implemented instruments broken down by sector (millions of tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent) (summary of presentation in Chapter 4.2)

Sector /Year	2010	2020
Cross-sectoral (local investment	Up to 1.8	Up to 2
programmesLIP/Klimp)
Electricity and district heating	16	16
Residential and service	Up to 8	Up to 9
Industry	0.2	0.7
Transport	3.7	5.4
Waste	1.4	1.9
Total	Up to 31	Up to 35

ment programmes (LIP and Klimp) and policy instru- ments in the residential and service sector our assess- ment is that the emission-limiting measures that have been implemented have also been affected by other instruments and by the rises in fossil fuel prices that have occurred since 2000. Introduced instruments may possibly have merely brought some of these measures forward and, if this is the case it means that the total effect is overestimated. These policy instru- ments are therefore stated as ”up to” a maximum es- timated emissions effect. The higher effect for meas- ures in some sectors in 2020 than in 2010 can be ex- plained by some of the approved Klimp projects not having been implemented until 2010 and the effects of some measures running over a longer period and therefore possibly being greater at a later stage when better knowledge has been obtained on the measure itself (a ’learning-by-doing’ effect).

In addition to the effects of policy instruments in Table 5.26, a number of electricity efficiency im- provements have been presented in Chapter 4 for which no emission effects have been calculated. These efficiency improvements total 5-6 TWh.

Figure 5.4 shows the estimated effects of imple- mented policies and measures since 1990 from Table 5.26 and the effects of the additional planned

Million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1990	1995	2000	2005	2010	2015	2020

Emissions without measures

Historical emissions and projected emissions with measures

Projected emissions with additional measures

Figure 5.4 Estimated emissions without implemented meas- ures, with additional measures compared with historical emissions and projected emissions with existing measures

policies and measures presented in Chapter 5.4, in comparison with historical emissions and projected future emissions in Sweden until 2020.

5.7Target fulfilment in relation to Sweden’s commitment under the Kyoto Protocol

According to Sweden’s commitment under the Kyoto Protocol and EU burden sharing, Sweden’s greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF must not exceed 104 per cent of the allocated amount for the base year. The base year is 1990 for all emissions except fluorinated greenhouse gases, for which it is 1995. Emissions in the base year, when the allocated amount was established, were 72.2 milliion tonnes. This means that Sweden’s greenhouse gas emissions may total a maximum of 75 million tonnes year, as an average for 2008-12. The re- sult of the projection points towards Sweden being able to post greenhouse gas emissions in 2010 under the rules of the Kyoto Protocol averaging around 62.9 mil- lion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in accordance with the main alternative, which indicates that Sweden will comfortably fulfil its commitment. [Table 5.27]

LULUCFcontributedtoanannualnetsinkinSweden over the period 1990-2007. The sink varied between 21 and 36 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent over the period, but the trend points to a somewhat decreasing sink. However, only part of this carbon sink can be accounted for in relation to the Kyoto commit- ment. It is mandatory to account in accordance with Article 3.3 of the Kyoto Protocol, while countries can choose activities under Article 3.4. Sweden has chosen to account the part ofArticle 3.4 that relates to forestry.

Article 3.3 of the Kyoto Protocol is calculated to give a net emission for Sweden for the commitment period, as emissions from deforestation are greater than re- movals in afforestation and reforestation. An estimate

Table 5.27 Historical and projected greenhouse gas emissions relative to the Kyoto base year and Kyoto target for Sweden (millions of tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent)

Kyoto base year	72.2 Mtonnes
Kyoto target (Kyoto base year - 2008/2012)	4 %
Kyoto target 2008-2012 per year	75.0 Mtonnes
2007 emissions	65.4 Mtonnes
2010 projection	65 Mton
Kyoto base year – 2010 projection	-10 %
Carbon sink in accordance with Articles 3.3 and 3.4	2.13 Mtonnes
2010 projection including Articles 3.3 and 3.4	62.9 Mtonnes
Kyoto base year - 2010 projection including	-12.9 %
Articles3.3 and 3.4
EU ETS allocation 2008-2012 per year	22.3 Mtonnes
EU ETS projection 2010	21.8 Mtonnes

70 5. Projections and aggregate effects of policies and measures

shows that emissions would be 0.6 million tonnes per year, but this calculation is highly uncertain. Sweden is expected overall to have a net sink for Article 3.4 from LULUCF which is larger than the net emissions for Article 3.3.This means that Sweden can neutralise the emissions for Article 3.3 and then credit itself with a carbon sink of a maximum of 2.13 million tonnes.

Sweden has made the necessary preparations to enable it to use project-based mechanisms, JI and CDM (see Chapter 4.3), but even without these Sweden is estimated to comfortably meet its com- mitment for the period 2008-2012.

5.8Target fulfilment in relation to Swedish and EU climate targets

Under the EU climate and energy package, emissions from the installations included in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) have to decrease by 21 per cent between 2005 and 2020 for the whole of the EU. Emissions from Swedish installations included in EU ETS were 19.4 million tonnes of carbon diox- ide in 2005. If estimated emissions from the installa- tions added during the second trading period 2008- 2012 and emissions from domestic aviation are add- ed, emissions of 21.8 million tonnes are calculated for 2005. A price of emission allowances of EUR 30 per tonne for the period 2007-2020 has been assumed in the projection. This price affects the sectors included in EU ETS in the models that have been used, to- gether with other prices and instruments. It estimat- ed in the projection that emissions will be 21.8 mil- lion tonnes in 2010 and 22.2 million tonnes in 2020 for the installations included in EU ETS. [Table 5.28]

The allocation in Sweden for the period 2008-2012 is 22.3 million tonnes per year to date. Another 0.2 million tonnes can be allocated for new entrants. The allocation for Sweden until 2020 has not yet been de- cided.As emission reductions as a result of the trading scheme can be implemented in Sweden or in other Member States, it is not possible to calculate the effect of the trading scheme on Swedish emissions. Target fulfilment can therefore only be assessed at EU level.

Under the EU Directive on the Promotion of Energy from Renewable Sources, the proportion of renewable energy is to increase to 49 per cent in 2020 in Sweden. The calculations in the main alternative of the projection show that renewable energy use is around 48-49 per cent in 2020, while it is 51-52 per cent in the alternative with higher fossil fuel prices.

Sweden’s commitment for the non-trading sectors according to the EU climate and energy package is that emissions have to decrease by 17 per cent between

Table 5.28 Historical and projected emissions from EU ETS and emissions from sectors not included in EU ETS in Sweden

	1990	2005	2010	2020
	(Mt CO2-eq.)	(Mt CO2-eq.)	(Mt CO2-eq.)	(Mt CO2-eq.)
Emissions from EU ETS		21.8	21.8	22.2
Emissions from non-	50.8*	45.4	43.2	40.9
EU ETS sectors
Total emissions	71.9	67.2	65	63.1

* 1990 emissions for non-EU ETS sectors have been calculated by assuming the same share of total emissions as in 2005. Note that this only provides a rough estimate of emissions from non-EU ETS sectors in 1990.

2005 and 2020. The Swedish target according to the climate policy resolutions of the Swedish Parliament in June 2009 is that emissions have to decrease by 40 per cent or around 20 million tonnes between 1990 and 2020. This is equivalent to around 32 per cent be- tween 2005 and 2020. Emissions from the non-EU ETS sectors totalled 45.4 million tonnes of carbon di- oxide equivalent in 2005. In the main projection with existing measures, emissions are estimated to be 40.9 million tonnes in 2020.This means a decrease in emis- sions of nearly 10 million tonnes compared with 1990. The projection with additional measures include EU- wide measures which are estimated to reduce emis- sions by 1.6 million tonnes. It is planned that climate investments in other countries will be made to reduce emissions by 6.7 million tonnes, which is equivalent to a third of the emission reductions between 1990 and 2020. To attain the target to reduce emissions by 20 million tonnes by 2020, additional national measures will be implemented and the 2009 climate policy res- olutions include a strategy with developed economic instruments which covers about 2 million tonnes of additional reductions in emissions. To date (December 2009), decisions have been taken that are estimated to produce reductions in emissions of more than 1 mil- lion tonnes. This is estimated to contribute to reduc- tions in emissions from activities outside the EU ETS by 25% by the year 2020 compared to 1990. Is the entire announced strategy with developed economic instruments included a decrease of 27% is achieved. [Table 5.29]

Table 5.29 Target fulfilment in relation to EU target and national targets

	2005-	1990-
	2020	2020	1990-2020
EU target EU ETS for EU	-21%
EU target non-EU ETS sectors for Sweden	-17%
National target non-EU ETS sectors		-40%	20 Mtonnes
Emission reduction 1990-2007			6.7	Mtonnes
Projection for emission reduction			3.2	Mtonnes
2007-2020 (existing measures)
Further planned measures in EU			1.6	Mtonnes
Further measures nationally to 2020			2	Mtonnes
of which decided by december 2009			1.1	Mtonnes
Climate investments in other countries			6.7	Mtonnes

5. Projections and aggregate effects of policies and measures	71

6Vulnerability assessment, climate change impacts and adaptations

6.1Introduction

Climate change and its consequences affect large parts of Swedish society. Efforts to adapt society to a changed climate have been strengthened in Swe- den in recent years. A number of climate policy de- cisions have been taken that have contributed to an increased focus on the issue of climate adaptation.

There is no authority at national level in Sweden with overarching responsibility for the issue of climate adaptation, but many government agencies have a designated role in climate adaptation work. The work on climate change adaptation will be integrated into the agencies’ sector responsibility, and a national fol- low-up of how adaptation efforts are progressing will be made for the next climate policy review. Respon- sibility for operational work on adaptation is borne at local level, i.e. by the municipalities. The county ad- ministrative boards, which have regional public serv- ice responsibility, now have a key role in supporting and coordinating implementation of adaptation meas- ures by the municipalities and other actors.

The work to date has been principally concerned with knowledge building on the vulnerability and adaptation needs of society as a consequence of cli- mate change. In 2005 a Commission on Climate and Vulnerability, in which researchers and govern- ment agencies actively participated, was appointed45 to clarify the vulnerability of Swedish society. The Commission evaluated climate effects and adapta- tion needs for the sectors of society.

6.2The Swedish climate in a state of change

In order to be able to make more realistic and ex- tensive vulnerability analyses of climate change, a

45 SOU 2007:60, Sweden Facing Climate Change – Threats and Opportunities, Final Report of the Swedish Commission on Climate and Vulnerability.

number of new studies on regional climate changes have been undertaken at the Rossby Centre of the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute in recent years, using the regional climate model RCA.

There is more extensive material today than was reported in NC4. Data from six different climate models have been used in the regional climate sce- narios. A larger regional climate scenario ensemble makes it easier to evaluate both uncertainties and robust features in regional climate scenarios. Stud- ies have also covered a more developed view of the internal variability of the climate system, which may conceal or reinforce the climate change signals. The role of internal variability in the context of climate adaptation is particularly important in the short- term perspective, a few decades ahead.

6.2.1 Temperature and precipitation

The new regional climate scenario ensemble is based on a new version of the Swedish regional climate model46 principally under emission scenario A1B. Simulations with several global climate models have been used as marginal data.As local and regional var- iations in the climate may be quite large, the regional climate scenario ensemble also contains calculations based on different simulations with a single emission scenario and global model.A list of these regional cli- mate modellings is contained in Table 6.1. The table also contains previous simulations reported in NC4.

The results for the most part confirm the previ- ous regional scenario material which in particular talks of significant warming and changes in precip- itation. The expanded material also illustrates how the choice of global model particularly influences the magnitude of the changes. The role of natural

46 Kjellström, E., Bärring, L., Gollvik, S., Hansson, U., Jones, C., Samuelsson, P., Rum- mukainen, M., Ullerstig, A., Willén U. and Wyser, K., 2005. A 140-year simulation of European climate with the new version of the Rossby Centre regional atmospheric climate model (RCA3). Reports Meteorology and Climatology, 108, SMHI, SE-60176 Norrköping, Sweden, 54 pp.

72 6. Vulnerability assessment, climate change impacts and adaptations

°C

5,5

4,5

3,5

2,5

1,5

0,5

Figure 6.1 Estimated changes in wintertime temperature (°C) (December, January and February) from

1961-90 till 2100 (from left to right: 1981-2010, 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100). The different cases from top to bottom are: RCA3/ECHAM4-A2, RCA3/ECHAM5-A1B, RCA3/ECHAM4- B2. The differences during the first periods are principally due to the different progressions of simu- lated variability. The significance of emission scenario becomes apparent in the longer term47.

Table 6.1 Global climate models and emission scenarios used to develop marginal data for regional climate scenarios and the resolution in the regional climate model simulation (“horizontal resolution”) with RCA.

AOGCM		Emissions	Horizontal
(institute, country)		scenario	resolution (km)
Arpège (CNRM, France)		A1B	50
BCM (NERSC, Norway)			50
BCM (NERSC, Norway)		A1B	25
		A1B

ECHAM4		CTL	50
ECHAM4		A2	50
(MPI-Met, Germany)		A2	50
(MPI-Met, Germany)		B2	50
		B2	50
		A2	50
CCSM3 (NCAR, USA)		A1B	50
		B2	50
			50
		A1B	50
ECHAM5			50
ECHAM5			50
(MPI-Met, Germany)			50
(MPI-Met, Germany)		A1B	25
		A1B	25
		B1	50
	ref		50
HadCM3	low	A1B	50
HadCM3	low		50
(Hadley Centre, UK)	high		50
	low		25
HadAM3H/HadCM3		CTL	50
HadAM3H/HadCM3		A2	50
(Hadley Centre, UK)		A2	50
(Hadley Centre, UK)		B2	50
		B2	50

47 Persson, G., Bärring, L., Kjellström, E., Strandberg, G. and Rummukainen, M., 2007. Climate indices for vulnerability assessments. Reports Meteorology and Clima- tology, 111, SMHI, SE64 Norrköping, Sweden.

variability is significant in the shorter-term perspec- tive (see Figure 6.1, where one simulation shows a far weaker initial increase in temperature than the other two). In a longer-term perspective the choice of emission scenario has a dominant impact on the magnitude of climate change.

Equivalent changes for seasonal precipitation are shown in Figure 6.2. A clear difference between an increase in Northern Europe and a decrease in Southern Europe is visible. In addition it can be seen how the dividing line between increase and decrease moves in a north-south direction during the year. All three scenarios point to reduced summer precipita- tion in Southern Sweden but otherwise increased precipitation throughout the country48. Precipita- tion increases most during the winter. In one scenar- io the increase is more than 50 per cent in large parts of the country.

As both the choice of emission scenario and the choice of climate model play a role in the magnitude of imaginable changes, regional calculations have been set in a broader perspective using a regional analysis of the global model ensemble in IPCC (2007

– AR4/WGO, Chapter 10). The results are shown

48 Among the global climate scenarios presented in IPCC 2007 there are also cases where summer precipitation does not decrease in Southern Sweden.

6. Vulnerability assessment, climate change impacts and adaptations	73

0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 -60

Figure 6.2 Estimated changes in seasonal precipitation from 1961-90 to 2100 (from left to right):

DJF, MAM, JJA and SON). The different cases from top to bottom are: RCA3/ECHAM4-A2, RCA3/

ECHAM5-A1B, RCA3/ECHAM4-B2.

Winter (December-February)		Summer (June-August)

Figure 6.3 Estimated changes in temperature and precipitation in the winter and in the summer (2071-2100 vs 1961-1990) for Southern Sweden. This includes all the regional climate scenarios described in NC4, but also several new ones (see Table 6.1). Asterisks (*) describe results from 23 global models with different emission scenarios. Three scenarios have been devel- oped using “pattern scaling” (+). The colours correspond to the emission scenario concerned. On the far left of each diagram observation data are shown for the 20th century for partially overlapping 30-year periods49.

49 Lind, P., and Kjellström, E., 2008. Temperature and precipitation changes in Sweden; a wide range of model-based projections for the 21st century. Reports Meteorology and Climatology, 113, SMHI, SE-60176 Norrköping, Sweden.

74 6. Vulnerability assessment, climate change impacts and adaptations

Figure 6.4 Presentation of data from observations of historical trend in the climate and how it may develop during the 21st century. Data present the deviation from the mean value for 1961-1990. Scenario results are stated as running averages. The grey area represents simulated variations. Stockholm County is shown as an example, with winter temperature in the top diagram and winter precipitation in the bottom diagram50.

in Figure 6.3. The mean value of all the scenarios gives a rise in temperature in winter-time in North- ern Sweden of 5.7 degrees and an increase in precip- itation of 25 per cent. In Southern Sweden there is a rise in temperature of 4.4 degrees and an increase in precipitation of 21 per cent. In the summer there is a rise in temperature in the north of 2.9 degrees and an increase in precipitation of 11 per cent, and in Southern Sweden of 2.8 degrees and 3 per cent.

6.2.2Measured changes in temperature and precipitation

Noted changes in temperature and precipitation in recent years in Sweden tie in well with the observed global warming and are in line with estimated chang- es due to anthropogenic climate impact. The win- ters in particular have become milder in all Swedish counties. Changes are also seen during other seasons and on a whole-year basis. An illustrative analysis of how the climate may develop in all Swedish coun- ties in the 21st century and how it has developed up to 2008 has been made using some scenarios and ob- servations.An example of this is shown in Figure 6.4.

Figure 6.5 shows observations of mean run-off and mean temperature in Sweden from 1901 to 2005

50 www.smhi.se.

and compared with a regional climate scenario. The observed trend points in the same direction as the regional climate scenario. Other climate scenarios also show similar qualitative agreement with obser-

Figure 6.5 Temperature and run-off for the whole of Sweden, for individual years and 15-year periods according to obser- vations 1901-2005, and a regional scenario for 1961-2100 based on RCA3-ECHAM/B251.

51 Hellström, S. & Lindström, G. (2008) Regional analys av klimat, vattentillgång och höga flöden (Regional analysis of climate, water supply and high flow rates). SMHI Report Hydrology No 110.

6. Vulnerability assessment, climate change impacts and adaptations	75

vations, but there are differences, particularly with regard to the magnitude of changes in run-off.

For precipitation there is some difference between estimated climate scenarios and the measurements of the past few years. In larger ensembles of climate modellings there are trends towards a decrease in summer precipitation in Southern Sweden (Figure 6.3), but this is not entirely clear. No such decrease has been observed. A possible explanation is that in- sofar as the estimated regional decreases are relative- ly small they may be overshadowed for short periods of time by natural variations.

Changes in Sweden’s water resources vary in dif- ferent climate models. A consistent result is, howev- er, that the greatest increases in water supply occur in Northern Sweden, in the western part of Central Sweden and the western part of Southern Sweden. The circumstances are more varied in other parts of the country. In the south-east, increasing evaporation contributes to the possibility of a decline in water supply. Overall the water supply increases on aver- age by 5-25 per cent for the whole country, but de- creases occur locally52.

some increase in the North Sea area and increased wind speeds over those parts of the Baltic Sea that remain ice-free in a future warmer climate (Bay of Finland, Bothnian Sea and Bay of Bothnia).

6.2.4 Variability and extremes

Simulated changes in extremes, for example changes in maximum and minimum temperature, are often more marked than corresponding changes in mean values. This is illustrated for minimum temperature in Figure 6.6. The very large changes of more than 10°C in large parts of Sweden can be compared with the corresponding change in mean winter tempera- ture of around 5°C in Figure 6.1.

The calculated change in extreme rains and down- pours in a future climate shows a relatively fragment- ed picture with wide differences between different climate scenarios. There is, however, more to suggest an increase than a decrease in the risks in a future cli- mate.This signifies an increase in the risks of flooding linked to stormwater systems and other direct run-off of rainwater in almost all parts of the country.

6.2.3 Wind

Future changes in wind conditions are highly un- certain as global models show great differences in change in large-scale circulation over the North At- lantic/Europe. A feature common to most scenarios is a decrease in wind speed in the Mediterranean and

6.3Climate impacts and vulnerability assessment

Few activities will remain unaffected in a changed climate in Sweden with rising temperature and changed patterns of precipitation. The risk of flood-

Figure 6.6 Level of 50-year extreme minimum temperature based on data from three ECHAM5-driven A1B simulations in Table 6.1. The left-hand side of the figure shows the levels in a control period (1970-1990) and the right-hand side points to a simulated change for the period 2070-2090 compared with the control period53.

52 Bergström, Sten, Sara-Sofia Hellström, Johan Andréasson, 2006, Nivåer och flöden i Vänerns och Mälarens vattensystem (Levels and flows in the water systems of Lakes Vänern and Mälaren, SMHI Reports Hydrology, No. 20.

53 Venäläinen, A., Saku, S., Jylhä, K., Nikulin, G., Kjellström, E. and Bärring, L., 2009. Climate extremes and safety of nuclear power plants: Extreme temperatures and ent- halpy in Finland and Sweden in a changing climate. Nordisk Kärnsäkerhet NKS-194. pp 33. ISBN 978-87-7893-261-7.

76 6. Vulnerability assessment, climate change impacts and adaptations

ing, landslides and erosion is expected to increase in many parts of the country, and it is important that measures are taken now, for buildings, roads, rail- ways, electricity and telecommunications networks and water and sewage systems.Account must also be taken of climate change in physical planning so that no further risks are built into society.

The following sections describe the consequences of a changed climate for different sectors of society. For a more detailed account, see the report of the Climate and Vulnerability Commission54.

6.3.1 Infrastructure

The technical infrastructure consisting of roads, rail- ways, buildings and water and wastewater systems is affected by the climate. As infrastructure often con- sists of systems and installations that may exist for a long time, it is crucial to plan for climate change when infrastructure investments are due to be made.

Communications

Climate change may have significant consequences for road networks. These are often constructed close to water, and the expected increase in precipitation and increased flow rates will bring with it flooding, the washing-away of roads and road verges and dam- aged bridges. High flow rates pose increased risks of landslides, which in turn increase the risk of damage to roads. The road networks are also affected by in- creased temperature and reduced depth of ground frost. A reduced depth of ground frost means re- duced deformations in road superstructure and road surface. Increased maintenance may be required where road construction is based on ground frost. A higher temperature and higher groundwater lev- els may, however, result in increased rutting. Overall, measures are shifted from being related to ground frost to being related to heat and water load.

The consequences will also be significant for rail- ways. Increased and more intensive precipitation means flooding and washing-away of bank structures, with the risk of accompanying landslides and land- slips. The expected rise in temperature during the summer brings an increased risk of sun kinks. Strong- er winds, particularly in Southern Sweden, may bring an increased risk of storm felling of forest and of damage to the power supply for the railway network.

Climate change will probably not affect shipping and aviation to any great extent. A higher water level may have an adverse impact on port activity, particularly in the southernmost parts of the coun-

54 SOU 2007:60, http://www.sweden.gov.se/sb/d/8704/a/89334.

try. A reduced occurrence of sea ice, on the other hand, means that winter shipping in Swedish ports is made easier, particularly along the coast of North- ern Sweden.

Telecommunications with overhead power lines and masts will be affected by a changed climate. In particular there will be an increased risk of storm felling due to reduced occurrence of ground frost and increased extreme wind speeds.

Settlements

Settlements have often been located in areas next to lakes and watercourses, but also close to the coast. Waterside development, which today is already ex- posed to the danger of flooding, is particularly ex- posed to impacts of climate change. Flooding is ex- pected to occur more often or far more often in the western and south-western parts of the country in particular.

A warmer and damper climate increases the risk of damp and mould on buildings. Historic build- ings may be particularly vulnerable, as they are often older and located in areas close to the coast.

Drinking water supply and wastewater management

A changed climate will affect the drinking water supply, although Sweden will continue to have good water resources. Water resources are expected to in- crease in many places, except in the south-eastern parts of the country, where there is a risk instead of water shortages. In those parts of the country where precipitation is expected to increase this may lead to floods that may have consequences for the wa- ter supply. In conjunction with floods upstream of water sources pollution may be carried to lakes and watercourses, including the risk of spread of water- borne infection and viruses. The increased risk of floods, landslides and landslips may also mean that pollution from contaminated soil and old landfills can be dispersed.The quality of the raw water in wa- ter sources will be adversely affected with increased temperature, as a rise in temperature results in in- creased leaching of nutrients and humus, leading to brown-coloured water and increased eutrophication. The piped distribution of water may be damaged by downpours causing landslides.A rise in sea level may increase the risk of saltwater penetration into wells close to the coast in Southern Sweden.

Increased frequency of extreme rainfall increases the risk of sewage pipes being overloaded. There is an increased risk of back-flowing water and flooding

6. Vulnerability assessment, climate change impacts and adaptations	77

of basements. Overloaded sewage pipes may lead to frequent and extensive overflowing of sewage, and therefore increased risks to health.

Supply and use of energy

The expected climate change will affect both the need for energy and prospects of producing energy. A climate with milder winters means that the need for heating in the residential and service sector will decease sharply.The peak load on electricity produc- tion and electricity networks will thus decrease. On the other hand, a greater need for cooling will arise when summer temperatures increase. The need for energy overall decreases, which signifies cost savings.

Hydropower production is favoured by an increase in water inflow and the fact that a more balanced annual rhythm of water flow is expected. Wind power production may also increase as the energy content of wind is expected to increase in the long term in the Baltic Sea region. Excessively windy conditions and icing may, however, cause problems for wind power production. Bioenergy production is also expected to increase in a milder climate and with a longer growing season.

Changed climatic conditions may also have conse- quences for security of supply in the energy sector. Heavy rains may cause dam bursts in the hydropow- er industry, which may have extensive consequences for society.

6.3.2 Land-based industries and tourism

Climate change is expected to increase production in the forests as a result of a longer growing season and the carbon dioxide level in the atmosphere in- creasing, which contributes to increased growth.The quality of the wood raw material may, however, be adversely affected by faster growth. Other potential- ly adverse effects are that when the growing season is extended growth will begin earlier in the spring, which may lead to a greater risk of frost damage. A change in wind conditions and the fact that the ground thaws more often may result in large num- bers of trees being brought down by storms. Insect and fungal attack may also become more common with a warmer and wetter climate.

Climate change may have both positive and neg- ative effects on agriculture. Agriculture in Sweden is favoured by a warmer climate and a higher level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. The conditions for cultivation are generally better as growing peri- ods are extended and it becomes possible to harvest

more crops during the same period. It will also be possible to cultivate new crops. But a warmer and damper climate is also favourable to the growth of pests, plant diseases and insects. The weed flora may increase, leading to an increased need for pesticides. As soil moisture is expected to decrease in Southern Sweden, periods of drought stress for certain groups may become more common. Water resources may vary across the country due to increased precipita- tion in some areas and more drought in others. This will lead to differing conditions for agricultural pro- duction. There may be a great need for irrigation in some areas, while in others increased precipitation may make it difficult to grow crops.

A warm climate may mean great changes for fish- eries. Water temperature is of crucial significance to the living conditions of fish. There are both cold- water species and warm-water species in Sweden. Warming in the Baltic Sea combined with a decrease in salt level might mean that fish species important to the fishing industry such as Baltic herring, cod and salmon are eliminated. How extensive the changes become depends on how great the decrease in salin- ity becomes. In freshwater, cold-water species will be replaced by warm-water species. The consequences for fisheries on the west coast, on the other hand, are not so clear.

The length of the vegetation period and plant production during the summer will increase for rein- deer herding. Higher temperatures and precipitation may exacerbate insect harassment for the reindeer. Winter conditions will become more unstable, with icing and recurrent periods of thawing. Formation of ice under snow makes it difficult for reindeer to find food and support feeding has to be carried out. The reduced areas of bare mountain may lead to great- er conflicts of interest between reindeer herding and other business and public interests. If conditions for the reindeer herding industry deteriorate, Sami cul- ture will also be under threat.

Conditions for summer tourisms will improve in a changed climate with warmer summers. Bathing tourism and outdoor leisure close to seas and lakes will benefit in particular. Climate change may lead to reduced tourist flows to the Mediterranean areas and increased flows to Scandinavia during the warmest months of the year. An important issue for the trend in summer tourism will be water quality and algal bloom in the lakes and seas of Scandinavia. For winter tourism, the season for many ski resorts in Sweden will be shortened. Cross-country skiing and snowmo- biling will be affected in particular as it is not possible to produce artificial snow for these activities.

78 6. Vulnerability assessment, climate change impacts and adaptations

Figure 6.7 The salinity of the surface water of the Baltic Sea (psu). Left: present- day conditions. Right: one of the regional scenarios showing a large decrease up to 2071–2100 (RCAO-ECHAM4/A2)55.

6.3.3 The natural environment and biodiversity

Climate change is expected to lead to changes in bi- odiversity and ecosystems and consequently in the ability of ecosystems to supply goods and services. Climate change will affect biodiversity both direct- ly through changed temperature and precipitation and indirectly through changed land use. Ecosystems with rich biodiversity have a greater ability to with- stand disturbance, i.e. they are more resilient. This means that ecosystems with preserved biodiversity in themselves cope better with the disruption that arises as a result of a change in climate.

When the climate becomes warmer, climatic zones and vegetation zones move northwards.There are ef- fects on the reproduction of plants and animals, the distribution and size of populations and the occur- rence of pest organisms. Uncommon species may dis- appear while new species may become established. The mountain areas are particularly sensitive to cli- mate change. The areas of bare mountain in Sweden are expected to decrease substantially when the tree line rises. The tree line rose around 100-150 m in the Swedish mountains in the 20th century. Downy birch forests will shrink as the snow cover becomes thinner and less permanent. On the other hand, tree species such as pine and spruce will become more dominant along the mountain slopes.

The temperature in the Baltic Sea will rise. The extent of ice will decrease dramatically, and at the end of this century it is anticipated that ice will only be present in the inner part of the Bay of Bothnia.An

55 Meier, H.E.M., E. Kjellström, and L.P. Graham, 2006: Estimating uncertainties of projected Baltic Sea salinity in the late 21st century. Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol. 33, No. 15.

increase in global sea level will mean that the level of the Baltic Sea rises. Salinity in the Baltic Sea is expected to change as a result of changed wind con- ditions and the supply of freshwater from increased precipitation and inflow from watercourses. It is still uncertain at present how great the changes in salt level will be as there are great uncertainties in the wind and precipitation scenarios. Model calculations in mean salinity in the whole of the Baltic Sea (see Figure 6.7) range between a non-statistically signifi- cant change and a decrease of around 50 per cent. Changed conditions in the Baltic Sea will mean great changes for biodiversity.

6.3.4 Human health

A changed climate with extremely high tempera- tures during the summer months may have direct consequences for particularly vulnerable groups. Elderly persons and individuals with cardiovascular and lung diseases may be particularly affected when severe heat waves occur.

When it becomes warmer, the growing season will be extended, affecting the length and intensity of the pollen season and bringing about a possible change in the spread of pollen-producing species. This will probably lead to increased pollen allergies. A milder winter climate, on the other hand, will reduce the number of cold-related health problems.

Higher temperatures in the summer may also in- crease the risk of infections spread with food and

6. Vulnerability assessment, climate change impacts and adaptations	79

water. The risk of flooding may also have direct con- sequences for human health as drinking water quick- ly becomes polluted when sewage overflows or when water from polluted land reaches water sources.

A change in ecosystems and the geographic ranges of species may mean that new diseases enter the country, particularly vector-borne diseases.An exam- ple of this is the expanded geographic range of ticks, which today covers almost the whole of Sweden and their spreading of the diseases borrelia and TBE.

6.4National adaptation measures

Work on climate adaptation has been intensified in various ways in Sweden since 2005.At national level, government agencies with special sector responsibil- ity have launched inquiries to build up knowledge of risks linked to climate change in their particular areas.

In the area of legislation, the Planning and Build- ing Act was amended in 2008 so that buildings may only be erected at suitable places and account has to be taken of the risk of accidents, flooding and ero- sion in municipal comprehensive plans and detailed development plans. Guidance has been prepared on how clearer and stronger consideration should be given to these risks, and methods have been devel- oped for adapting planning and construction to pre- vent, avoid and minimise the adverse effects of cli- mate change.

In the area of energy, the vulnerability of the energy sector to extreme weather events has been analysed, for instance how the safety of hydropower dams and tailings dams and the risk of flooding are affected by climate change. Work to replace over- head power lines with buried cables for electricity distribution has been intensified since the storms of 2005 and 2007.

The risks to the road and rail networks of land- slides, washing-away and flooding have been analysed and remedial action has been taken where necessary. An extensive tree-securing project is also underway for the railway network, where trees are felled to en- hance safety in the event of strong winds.

Knowledge on the consequences of climate change and options for action is passed on to forest owners and farmers (see Chapter 9.5).

Cooperation has been in progress since 2005 be- tween the National Board of Housing, Building and Planning, the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency, the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency, the Swedish Geotechnical Institute and the Swed- ish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute to

facilitate work on climate adaptation for munici- palities, county administrative boards and other af- fected actors in the area of climate adaptation. The Swedish Mapping, Cadastral and Land Registration Authority (Lantmäteriet) and the Swedish Energy Agency have also joined this cooperation. This net- work of agencies has set up a web portal on adap- tation to a changed climate in order to disseminate information to those actors who work to adapt soci- ety to a changed climate, and has been in discussion with other sector agencies and county administrative boards.

At regional level the county administrative boards, assisted by national agencies, are responsible for pass- ing on data needed locally to plan and implement measures to make society more robust to climate change. Many county administrative boards have chosen to cooperate in various networks, as expect- ed climate effects are often transboundary or other- wise common to different actors. In Central Sweden seven county administrative boards have issued joint recommendations on how to take account of the risk of flooding in municipal physical planning. The county administrative boards in Southern Sweden have jointly studied how a rising sea level affects the coastal environment, and the knowledge base pro- vides support to physical planning along the coast, taking account of climate change.

Future climate change may mean flooding around Sweden’s largest lake, Vänern, and along the River Göta Älv. The county administrative board in Västra Götaland agreed with Vattenfall on a change in wa- ter-discharging strategy to prevent the risk of flood- ing around Lake Vänern and of landslides along the River Göta Älv. Using a forecasting model, discharg- ing of water is to be dictated by the current water level and the estimated inflow.

Expected climate change may mean that large areas around Lake Mälaren and parts of Stockholm city centre will be flooded. The need to be able to regulate water flow will increase, and planning work is currently under way to increase the release capac- ity from Lake Mälaren in conjunction with the re- construction of Slussen in Stockholm.

Responsibility for practical climate adaptation work is generally held by the municipalities. It is the municipalities that are responsible for physical plan- ning, contingency planning and emergency services. The municipalities are also the authorities respon- sible for technical supplies. Many municipalities in Sweden are working on measures to reduce their ex- posure in the prevailing climatic conditions and to respond to future climate change.

80 6. Vulnerability assessment, climate change impacts and adaptations

Practical adaptation measures to date have been principally commenced among municipalities re- cently affected by extreme weather events. This work has been principally concerned with measures in physical planning and construction. Many munic- ipalities are conducting a climate and vulnerability analysis in their work on new comprehensive plans. Essential facilities and services, transport infrastruc- ture, technical supply systems, environmentally haz- ardous activity and contaminated sites that may be in the risk zone for flooding, landslides, landslips and erosion are being identified. Proposals in principle for measures are being drawn up for areas at risk. Many municipalities have raised the minimum level for construction, carried out bunding measures and invested in pumping systems against flooding. Some municipalities have started working on measures in water and wastewater systems to avoid being affect- ed by the effects of intensive rainfall.

6.4.1 Planned measures

The continued work on climate adaptation has been intensified in the Budget Bill in the autumn of 2008 and in the 2009 Climate and Energy Bill. A sum of SEK 400 million has been earmarked for climate ad- aptation measures for the period 2009-2011, and additional resources are proposed for 2012. Among other things:

•A new national altitude model to improve the knowledge base for the assessment of risks and for the planning of measures to minimise the risks of landslides is being developed.

•The state of knowledge and the basis for decision- making are being improved for example with re- gard to flooding of the three major lakes and land- slide risks along the River Göta Älv at increased water flow rates.

•The need to further adapt physical planning to increased risks of landslides and flooding is being managed in conjunction with the ongoing review of the Planning and Building Act.

•The Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences is to improve its knowledge of the management of climate change in forestry. The Swedish For- est Agency is to pass on knowledge to the forest owners on climate change and possible adaptation measures. The Swedish Board of Agriculture is to compile an update of current knowledge to pre- vent and manage increasing problems with weeds, plant diseases and pests.

6.5International work

Sweden is not currently taking part in any direct in- ternational cooperation on the development of joint adaptation strategies. However, the Swedish Mete- orological and Hydrological Institute is taking part in several international projects aimed in particu- lar at developing a basis for vulnerability analyses that can serve as a basis for adaptation strategies. But work on the EU White Paper on adaptation will be stepped up:

•ENSEMBLES, which is a large EU project that prepares global and regional climate scenarios and develops scenario analysis in probabilistic terms. Allied to this, impact studies are undertaken on agriculture, health, food safety, energy, water sources and risk management. Final reporting on ENSEMBLES is due in 2009.

•CES is an ongoing Nordic project on impact stud- ies on renewable forms of energy and energy sys- tems (biofuels, hydropower, wind power, solar power). CES contains a climate scenario section.

•CIRCLE is an EU/FP6 ERA-Net on climate ef- fects and climate adaptation, with the aim among other things of reviewing the prospects of joint methods for adaptation strategies.

•SAWA and CPA are EU Interreg projects, the Swedish parts of which are analysing the risks of landslides in the valley of the Göta Älv.

•CLARIS-LPB is an EU FP7 project that studies hydrological effects of climate change in the La Plata Basin, South America.

•Geoland2 is an FP7 project attached to GMES principally aimed at creating satellite-based prod- ucts, but one area of which is concerned with hy- drological applications which among other things contain pan-European modelling of the water sources in a changed climate.

•GENESIS is another FP7 project that studies cli- mate effects on European hydrology, principally aquifers.

•ECOSUPPORT is a BONUS project concerned with biogeochemical effects of a changed climate in the drainage basin of the Baltic Sea (both land and sea) and options for implementing the Baltic Sea Action Plan in the future.

•The BONUS project AMBER, which is concerned with implementation of ecosystem methods in other Baltic Sea projects, the BalticWay project on significant reductions in environmental risks posed by the marine industry and INFLOW on changes in saltwater inflow into the Baltic Sea.

6. Vulnerability assessment, climate change impacts and adaptations	81

7Financial resources and transfer of technology

7.1Introduction

Tackling climate change in developing countries is, from a Swedish perspective, closely linked with pov- erty reduction and attaining development goals such as the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). A large proportion of development projects are in danger owing to climate change, and several devel- opment goals will not be attained unless measures are taken and further funding is injected. The objec- tive of Swedish environmental development coop- eration is to contribute to environmentally sustain- able development, in order to enable poor people to improve own their living conditions. Women, men, girls and boys living in poverty have to be given an opportunity to adapt to the adverse impacts of cli- mate change and also in the long term be able to take action to limit greenhouse emissions in accordance with their national objectives on sustainable devel- opment. This support is guided by principles such as ownership, harmonisation and alignment to the country’s systems and processes. On this basis, Swe- den is working towards integrating climate change considerations into a broader spectrum of poverty reduction, for instance in sectors such as water and sanitation, agriculture and forestry, food security, en- ergy, infrastructure, health and education.

Under Sweden’s Policy on Global Development (PGU), reduced environmental and climate change impact is a key element in the country’s develop- ment cooperation. Development cooperation is, however, just one of the instruments needed to work proactively on climate change issues in developing countries. Initiatives by other Swedish public insti- tutions, non-governmental organisations, the private sector and other actors in Swedish society are also of great significance. A number of different instru- ments and forms of cooperation are used to chan-

nel development cooperation. The funds channelled through development cooperation only represent a small proportion of the total sum of climate change- related finance required in developing countries. Re- sources therefore need to be mobilised from other sources, both private and public. Cooperation with other Swedish and international actors in this con- text is judged to be of great value and provides better leverage of the resources invested and ensures that the comparative advantages of the different institu- tions are benefited from.

7.2Objective and funding

Sweden works broadly on the climate change issue in developing countries. In line with the Swedish policy on Swedish global development, a large number of actors such as ministries, government agencies, state- owned companies, non-governmental organisations, universities and the private sector in Sweden assist in climate change-related cooperative actions and ac- tivities with regard to financial support such as tech- nology development, research and various forms of capacity development in developing countries.There are a number of different forms of cooperation, pol- icy instruments and forms of support, and finance is provided from both public and private sources.

7.2.1 Governing policies and priorities

Policy on global development

The current policy on global development (PGU) was adopted in 2003 and specifies that all policy ar- eas are to contribute jointly to a fair and sustainable global development. The overarching objective of development cooperation remains to enable people living in poverty to improve their living conditions.

82 7. Financial resources and transfer of technology

PGU represents the framework in which Swedish de- velopment policy is to be pursued and includes other policy areas and actors in society in order to clarify that Sweden speaks with one voice and strives to at- tain the same development goals. To put PGU into practice, work for the period 2007-2010 is presented as six global challenges, of which climate change and environmental impact is one. The Swedish Govern- ment has identified those challenges as being of key importance in attaining the objective of the policy and where Sweden is deemed to be in a position to make an effective contribution.

The thematic priority environment and climate change

With the aim of moving away from the clear trend to prioritise a large number of policy areas in de- velopment cooperation, the Swedish Government has decided to focus on three thematic priorities during the 2007-2010 parliamentary term: equal- ity, democracy and human rights, and environ- ment and climate change. With regard to the lat- ter it is stipulated that work on environment and climate change has to be intensified and permeate the whole of development cooperation and that ef- forts in relation to environment and climate change are to be concentrated on four areas closely linked to climate change: climate change adaptation, ener- gy, environment and safety, and water. This priority with its strong emphasis on environment and cli- mate change provides increased weight and politi- cal guidance so that development cooperation can be focused on these issues. A close look at the coop- eration strategies drawn up in 2008 also shows that the issues of environment and climate change have had a greater impact on Swedish priorities in part- ner countries. Most cooperation strategies indicate the thematic priorities of environment and climate change as overarching goals, a priority area of coop- eration or as a dialogue issue.

The Paris Declaration and the Accra Agenda on aid effectiveness

The principles contained in the Paris Declaration from 2005 and the Accra Agenda from 2007 are of key significance to Swedish development coop- eration. These principles are relevant regardless of whether or not development cooperation (ODA) is concerned and should also guide initiatives relating to climate change. National ownership should also guide climate change-related initiatives, as are exter- nal actors (including donors) should ensure improved

coordination and alignment to national systems and processes of developing countries and ensure better reporting of results and mutual accountability.

The Commission on Climate Change and Development

Against the backdrop of a strong wish to integrate consideration of climate change in development co- operation and to link together climate change and development issues, the Swedish Government in 2007 took the initiative to establish an international Commission on Climate Change and Development with the aim of preparing recommendations for ways in which adaptation and risk could be integrated into development cooperation. The final report was is- sued in May 2009 and underlines the need to pre- vent vulnerability, manage risks, strengthen the local level where a large part of the adaptation will take place and improve the functioning of ecosystems, emphasising at the same time that successful devel- opment in future will depend on how well climate change risks and other risks are managed. Moreover, the Commission advocates that USD 1-2 billion ur- gently be committed to climate change adaptation while waiting for a new financial architecture result- ing from an agreement in Copenhagen in December 2009 to be put in place. The Commission’s report is expected to play a major role in shaping Swedish de- velopment cooperation.

7.2.2 Forms of cooperation and instruments

Swedish development cooperation has received 1 per cent of Gross Domestic Income (GDI) since 2006, and Swedish ODA to developing countries is thus at a level that surpasses the agreed 0.7 per cent target, which only a few other OECD countries have fulfilled. The Swedish climate change-related initia- tives therefore ought not to have occurred at the ex- pense of other development goals. From the Swed- ish point of view there is no reason to distinguish between climate change financing and development financing, as consideration of the environment and climate change so clearly is essential to sustainable development. On the other hand, it is clear that in- creased sums over and beyond present-day levels of assistance will be required to fund adaptation and mitigation in developing countries.

Sweden considers it very important to ensure that environmental and climate change aspects, includ- ing disaster risk reduction, are integrated into de- velopment cooperation. Environmental and climate change analyses, environmental impact assessment

7. Financial resources and transfer of technology	83

(EIA) and strategic environmental assessment (SEA) are existing tools already used in Swedish develop- ment cooperation to ensure integration and maxim- ise outcome with regard to adaptation and mitiga- tion. It is important to take a broad approach to the climate change issue, and Sweden therefore engages both in integration and specially targeted initiatives that complement one another.

Half of Swedish development cooperation is chan- nelled as bilateral aid through the Swedish Inter- national Development Cooperation Agency (Sida), to developing countries and countries with econo- mies in transition. In the area of climate change, Sida works on capacity building, technology cooperation and research cooperation related to adaptation and mitigation in developing countries, and in doing so collaborates with non-governmental organisations, Swedish authorities, the private sector and research institutes. Section 7.4 provides an overall picture of bilateral cooperation, while the examples (I-IV) relate to different forms of cooperation. In 2007 Sweden decided to reduce the number of countries involved in development cooperation with the aim of improving efficiency and quality. The number of countries has been reduced from 67 to 33, and the countries have been divided into five categories dis- tinguishing between the forms of cooperation used. The range is wide and extends from countries with traditional long-term development cooperation to countries where there is greater focus on new coop- eration partners and creating platforms for collabo- ration as traditional development cooperation is no longer needed. There is also to be a clearer focus on results in all development cooperation.

The other half of development cooperation is made up of multilateral aid, which is channelled through the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Sida and the Minis- try of the Environment, including regular and volun- tary funding of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol. Dialogue and advocacy are important in relation to multilat- eral aid, and Sweden attaches great importance to other forums, in addition to UNFCCC, where the climate change issue of is great relevance, such as UNDP, UNEP, the World Bank, FAO, ISDR etc. (see section 7.3).

I) Specially targeted initiatives

The Government took a decision in 2006 on a special climate change initiative for 2007 totalling SEK 100 million with the intention of strengthening Swedish partner countries’ knowledge of and capacity to deal

with the effects of climate change.The initiative’s re- sources have been shared equally between the areas of climate change adaptation and risk management, sustainable energy and environmental technology and are channelled bilaterally, regionally and globally (see examples in 7.4.1 and 7.6). Efforts have been made to strengthen institutional capacity at national level as well as targeted efforts in the forest and wa- ter areas. In addition, emphasis has been put on re- forming the energy sector, sustainable urban devel- opment and energy efficiency and the development of sustainable energy systems. These initiatives were also chosen to utilise expertise and resources among Swedish actors and in the private sector.

In international development cooperation the Government has given notice of a special climate change initiative totalling around SEK 4 billion over the period 2009-2012. The primary goal is to con- tribute effectively to long-term efforts for adaptation to climate change in the poorest countries, but also to contribute to measures in developing countries to limit greenhouse gas levels, for instance through greater energy efficiency, increased access to better technology and alternative energy sources and refor- estation projects. Grants are primarily to be made through existing multilateral initiatives but also in bilateral cooperation, focusing on Africa.

In addition, the Swedish Government decided in 2009 on a new unrestricted system of loans and guarantees solely for investments in social develop- ment and environment/climate in developing coun- tries. The system’s budget is SEK 250 million annu- ally over a 3-year period. The system originates from the fact the large investment needs in infrastructure, environment and climate change in Sweden’s part- ner countries cannot be managed solely with devel- opment cooperation or through market actors. Loans and guarantees mobilise domestic capital, strengthen local financial markets and make it easier for partner countries to attract private investments.

II) Support through non-governmental organisations

Cooperation with civil society in the area of climate change, both in Sweden and in developing countries, is significant to Sweden as these actors focus closely on the local level in developing countries and work with important local partners. Government financial support from Sida is allocated to, among others, the Swedish Society for Nature Conservation, the World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF), the Swedish Coop- erative Centre and Diakonia (see example in section 7.4). WWF works actively to strengthen cooperation

84 7. Financial resources and transfer of technology

between donors and the commercial sector, princi- pally with regard to technology transfer, and also as- sists developing countries in preparing national ad- aptation plans.

III) Support through swedish authorities to institutions in developing countries

Strengthening capacity among authorities in part- ner countries is an important role for development cooperation, and as well as long-term cooperation with environmental authorities in countries such as Vietnam, Laos, Kenya and Burkina Faso, Sida chan- nels money to and cooperates with several Swed- ish authorities and universities to enable them to run programmes and project activities in developing countries focused on their particular areas of exper- tise (see sections 7.5 and 7.6). The Swedish Envi- ronmental Protection Agency assists several coun- tries with economies in transition, for example, in establishing environmental legislation and new en- vironmental institutions. It works together with the country’s environmental authority and international organisations such as UNEP. The present-day pro- gramme includes several countries in Eastern Eu- rope and China.

IV) Cooperation with the private sector

The dominant global capital flows are private, and to be able to manage climate change it is of the ut- most importance to link these flows to efforts both to tackle climate change and to adapt to its negative effects. Sida’s new systems for environmental loans and guarantees is one component of this work. The development of national and international regula- tions is a fundamental aspect. An increased focus on both adaptation and mitigation measures addition- ally signifies increased demand for new products and services. Cooperation between different policy areas

– business, environment, research, trade and devel-

opment cooperation – is important here in order to bring about greater involvement among Swedish in- novators and companies.

In addition, Sida and other government actors play an important catalytic role by creating meet- ing places for an exchange of experience and infor- mation, for the development of skills and expertise and also with the aim of preparing for further in- vestments by providing catalytic contributions. The Swedish Trade Council, Swedfund and the Swedish Agency for Economic and Regional Growth assist with support in this context, which is described in more detail in section 7.5.

7.3Multilateral contributions

Nearly half of Swedish development cooperation is allocated to international multilateral development bodies, and a new multilateral strategy was prepared in 2007 to ensure higher quality. The strategy con- tains guidelines aimed at more strategic actions, bet- ter result orientation and advanced accounting and evaluation functions, as well as a clearer sharing of roles between the actors in the Swedish system. Rel- evance and effectiveness are the principal criteria in prioritising different multilateral channels.

Sweden provides assistance to the financial mecha- nism of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, the Global Environment Facility (GEF), ac- cording to an agreed scale, and most of this is used for climate change purposes.Table 7.1 clarifies Swed- ish payments to the GEF Trust Fund for the period 2004-2008. For the fourth replenishment, on which negotiations were completed in 2006, Sweden under- took, in addition to the share decided upon, to make a voluntary contribution of SEK 356 million, and the total budget was SEK 838 million, which will be paid out over a 10-year period up to 2016 (see Table 7.2). Over the period 2004-2008 Sweden also contributed voluntary assistance to two climate change funds cre- ated under the Marrakesh Accords: a total of SEK 40

Table 7.1 Payments into GEF in 2005-2008 (SEK millions)

Swedish contributions	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008
GEF Trust Fund	132	138	165	251	261
SCCF – Special Climate Change Fund			10*	15	15
- of which adaptation SEK 37 million
- of which technology transfer SEK 3 million
LDCF – Least Developed Countries Fund				7

* Combined contribution for the period 2004-2006

Table 7.2 Payments into fourth replenishment of GEF (SEK millions)

Replenishment	Swedish total payment	Swedish voluntary contribution	Pay-out period
GEF-4	838 (76.2 SDR*)	356 (32.4 SDR)	Up to 2016

* Special Drawing Right: the exchange rate on 31 January 2006 has been used for calculation.

7. Financial resources and transfer of technology	85

million to the Special Climate Change Fund (SCCF) and SEK 7 million to the Least Developed Countries Fund (LDCF). Sweden has not contributed to the Adaptation Fund under the Kyoto Protocol, which is not yet operational, but is following its development of the Fund with great interest.

Sweden provides assistance to the core budget of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change according to the agreed UN scale with an additional charge for the Kyoto Protocol, but also to the fund for participation and the fund for supplementary ac- tivities, contributions to which are voluntary (see Table 7.3). Sweden’s voluntary support of UNFCCC increased substantially between 2004 and 2008, reflecting the weight the country attaches to the work of the Convention and also the fact that the increased intensity of work and meetings in recent years demand more financial resources in particular to ensure participation from developing countries. Sweden also provides assistance to the CDM Execu- tive Board, and in 2006 contributed USD 140 000 to the Board’s administrative expenses.

In the context of the work of UNFCCC, Sweden has also supported weADAPT, an initiative devised by the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) as an ‘action pledge’ under the Nairobi Work Programme. This is a web-based platform that brings together a broad range of organisations with experience of ad- aptation in theory and practice. The platform’s tools and methods are aimed at supporting the sharing of knowledge of others for example on climate models, projections and instruments and also to pass on per- sonal experience.

In addition to assistance to UNFCCC, GEF and its climate change funds, Sweden considers it impor- tant also to operate through assistance to a number of other multilateral specialised bodies and interna- tional and regional organisations, banks and institutes in order to influence their climate change work in various sectors, see also Table 7.3. Under several UN bodies,programmes and development banks,Sweden conducts a proactive policy dialogue, and advocacy takes place for instance with regard to climate re- search, tools, methods and policies for adaptation and mitigation etc. Sweden additionally attaches great importance to cooperation with international research bodies such as the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR), the Centre for International Forestry Research (CIFOR) and the World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF) and has also cooperated over a long period with the Asian In- stitute of Technology (AIT) in the area of technology and capacity building.

Renewable Energy Technologies (RETs) is a regional research pro- gramme focused on renewable energy technology which is assisted by Sida and coordinated by the Asian Institute of Technology (AIT). The third phase of the programme, 2002-2004, was aimed at con- solidating and disseminating the experience gained to date. RET packages for different areas have been developed and demonstrat- ed on a commercial basis. Three renewable technologies have been selected: solar energy and biomass drying, biomass briquettes and briquette-fired cookers.

In addition, institutions such as the International Union for the Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources (IUCN), the International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED) and SEI un- dertake valuable work in the area of climate change with financial support from Sweden.

In 2008 SENSA (Swedish Environmental Secretariat for Asia) togeth- er with UNEP and SEI established a regional knowledge platform in Asia for climate change adaptation. The principal purpose, in line with the Nairobi Work Programme and the Bali Action Plan, is to focus on both adaptation planning and experience and adaptation methods and tools. Various actors from governments and authorities to the pri- vate sector in the region are to benefit from the platform with a view to interacting, strengthening their capacity and strengthening knowl- edge of climate adaptation and how it is integrated at national level.

As in the multilateral dialogue and cooperation with other donors, harmonisation is significant. Harmoni- sation is one of the principal aims of the Europe- an Commission’s Global Climate Change Alliance (GCCA). Sweden supports the initiative aimed at creating a platform for dialogue and exchange be- tween the EU and the least developed countries and small island states (SIDS). The overarching objec- tive is to assist the countries most at risk in increas- ing their capacity to adapt to the negative effects of climate change, while at the same time fulfilling the MDGs. Assistance is to be provided principal- ly through budget support from a donor pool. Swe- den contributed a one-off sum of SEK 50 million in 2008.The selected pilot countries are Cambodia, the Maldives, Vanuatu and Tanzania.

7.4Bilateral and regional contribution

With regard to bilateral cooperation, the Swedish contribution is based on developing countries’ own strategies for poverty reduction, both in the area of climate change and other areas. Common coopera- tion strategies between Sida and the partner coun- try are being devised to provide guidance for contin- ued cooperation. The climate change issue has had a great impact in recent years thanks to the themat-

86 7. Financial resources and transfer of technology

Table 7.3 Payments to multilateral institutions and other relevant organisations and institution, 2004-2008 (USD million)

(The SEK/USD exchange rate at 11 December each year has been used for conversion)

Multilateral institutions and programmes	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008
1. World Bank group (incl. IBRD, IDA, IFC, MIGA)	206.8	121.6	247.4	241.4	332.3
2a. African Development Bank	-	-	-	2.8	3.2
2b. African Development Fund	62.6	48.5	54.7	67.7	68.5
3a. Asian Development Bank	9.2	24.8	14.7	9.4	18
3b. Asian Development Fund	14.8	21.5	23.8	22.8	10.3
4. European Bank for Reconstruction and Development	0.9	0.7	10.1	8.4	8.2
5a. Development cooperation in the EU budget	141.1	100.6	165.9	155.5	123.7
Global Climate Change Alliance					6.2
5b. European Development Fund	99.3	81.6	97.2	110.7	101.5
6. Inter-American Development Bank	2.1	1.4	5.1	-	1.5
7. United Nations Development Programme	171.2	104.1	138	130.9	208.1
8. United Nations Environmental Programme	9.6	13.1	9.4	22	15.5
9. United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction	6.5	0	7.5	8.1	14.5
10. UNFCCC
- Core support	0.11(Conv)	0.16(Conv)	0.15(Conv)	0.15(Conv)	0.18(Conv)
		0.07(KP)	0.1 (KP)	0.12(KP)	0.13(KP)
- Supplementary Fund	0.036	0.043	0.66	0.20	0.31
- Trust Fund for Participation	0.14	0.42	0.20	0.31	0.31
- CDM Executive Board			0.14
11. Examples of assistance to other international, regional organisations
and institutions
- Centre for International Forestry Research	2.7	2.9	4.6	6.3	4.8
- Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research	9.0	8.0	7.8	10.4	4.4
- Asian Institute of Technology	23	15.9	30.7	31.7	14.9
- World Maritime University	25	22.6	23.4	20.9	11.1
- World Agroforestry Centre	28.4	25.6	25.7	4.3	5.8
- Mekong River Commission	9.5	13.9	11.6	14.9	13.1
- West Africa Rice Development Association	0	3.3	3.3	3.3	1.6
- International Union for the Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources	37.6	42.1	57.8	42	45.9
- International Institute for Environment and Development	7	9	12.9	19.2	18.9

Table 7.4 Bilateral and regional support 2004-2008 (SEK million)

			Mitigation					Adaptation			Other	Total
										Other
	Energy	Transport	Forestry	Agriculture	Waste	Industry	Water	Forestry	Agriculture	adapt.
2004	160	0.09	71	43	103	0.3	146	89	202	112	74	998
2005	153	59	86	92	321	23	252	108	344	429	232	2100
2006	286	45	137	102	127	26	351	135	292	392	224	2116
2007	233	49	90	77	124	22	313	118	342	239	170	1777
2008	427	84	83	121	147	27	400	97	322	327	147	2182
Total	1259	238	467	435	822	97	1462	547	1502	1497	848	9170
	Total emission reduction: approx. 3300						Total adaptation: approx. 5000				Tot: approx. 850

ic priority of environment and climate change that emphasises that these issues have to be considered and permeate cooperation, but also a growing need from partner countries. Bilateral climate change sup- port comprises bilateral, regional and global initia- tives56 in adaptation and mitigation, technology co- operation and capacity building, including research cooperation, institutional strengthening and train- ing efforts. In the spirit of the Paris Declaration, de- velopment cooperation has increasingly to focus on budget support and sector programme support, re- ducing Sweden’s opportunity to influence in detail

56 Global initiatives are bilateral and regional assistance channelled through multilate- ral and other institutions.

how the funds are used and instead putting greater demands on dialogue with the partner country.

Table 7.4 shows Swedish bilateral and regional as- sistance which has been classified as climate change related for the period 2004-2008. The emphasis in the support for adaptation is on interventions in water and agriculture and other sectors containing for example disaster risk management, health con- tributions, education and research. Contributions to energy and waste management dominate in mitiga- tion. The group of “other” contains initiatives that have promoted implementation of UNFCCC but

7. Financial resources and transfer of technology	87

are not directly linked to adaptation or emission lim- itation, e.g. institutional strengthening and capacity building, legislation, support for organisations and support for negotiators from developing countries. The greatest share of support has gone to adaptation measures, around SEK 5 billion, while emission re- duction-related initiatives have received around SEK 3.3 billion and other initiatives around SEK 850 mil- lion. This division reflects the significance Sweden, together with many partner countries, attaches to adaptation measures.The contributions also produce important synergies in the agriculture and forestry sectors between adaptation and mitigation measures.

Annex 6 shows how the financial support is broken down by country, region, sector and year for the period 2004-2008. The individual countries to have received the largest shares of climate change-related aid are Tanzania, Mozambique and Vietnam, which represent countries where Sweden has engaged in de- velopment cooperation for many years. From a Swed- ish perspective it is important that capacity building and technology transfer are integrated in bilateral and regional projects and programmes at sector level, for both emission reduction and adaptation. Because of its interdisciplinary nature, the financial support for these operations is not differentiated in Swedish de- velopment cooperation. On the other hand, specific examples are presented in sections 7.5 and 7.6.

Adaptation in the agricultural sector for AIDS victims in Zimbabwe

The Swedish Co-operative Centre undertakes operations aimed at households affected by AIDS in Zimbabwe, focused on adaptation in agriculture. The project has been implemented since 2003 at village level with families where one or more members have AIDS, where parents have died and where children are heads of house- hold. Training and advice are given on the cultivation of crops such as sweet potato, cassava and beans, which are less labour-intensive and require less water. The nutritional value is also high, which is important in delaying the progression from HIV to AIDS. The project also runs study circles which are led by the women in the villages to spread knowledge of sustainable development, climate change and adaptation strategies. The support for each district is phased out after 2-3 years when the villages are able to work at full scale without external support.

Bilateral and regional climate change work is under- taken at various levels of society and relates to many strategically important sectors in development coop- eration such as water, agriculture, forestry, infrastruc- ture and energy and is integrated with other support. Two examples of adaptation described below are re- lated to water resource management and improved climate information, data and projections.

The programme ZACPRO 6.2 on Integrated water resource manage- ment strategy for the River Zambezi area is aimed at improving in- tegration of water source management in the River Zambezi area, promoting social and economic development and protecting against floods, drought, pollution of water resources and environmen- tal degradation. To facilitate joint work to bring about long-term sustainable utilisation of water resources, the project is seeking to establish a framework for regular exchange of information and cooperation between the countries bordering the river basin. The programme has developed a joint integrated water resource man- agement strategy for the countries bordering the river area which enables the water resources in the area to be quickly evaluated.

SMHI is cooperating with the Botswana Department of Meteoro- logical Services (DMS) in the establishment of a weather service in Botswana to strengthen capacity in weather-related disaster management and climate change adaptation. The first phase in the project out of two planned was run between 2006 and 2008, The phase was initiated with a detailed inventory of present-day activity to identify the most relevant areas for development. DMS person- nel have been trained in meteorological observation stations, data collection, remote sensing, meteorological projection methods etc. The quality of Botswana’s weather service has improved through a combination of capacity development among personnel and techni- cal improvements. Sida has supported the project with SEK 3.2 million.

Sweden’s work on climate change in developing countries also includes contributing to decreased greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere. Sida is therefore working with its partner countries to ena- ble them to invest in technology and know-how that is both environmentally and economically sustaina- ble. Regulatory instruments that encourage more ef- ficient use of energy and renewable energy sources are supported. Access to sustainable and modern en- ergy is crucial from a development perspective. See examples of technology cooperation in the area of energy in section 7.5.

Since 2007 the Swedish Energy Agency has working with support from Sida on a capacity building project for CDM (Clean Develop- ment Mechanism) in Tanzania, Kenya and Uganda. The number of CDM projects in Africa to date has been very low, and a problem in many African countries is the shortage of economic and insti- tutional infrastructure for managing CDM projects. The project is therefore aimed at building the necessary capacity among authori- ties, energy companies, banks and industrial companies concerned that is required to be able to receive and implement CDM projects. The intention is for capacity to be developed through ‘learning-by- doing’. To date the Swedish Energy Agency has clarified the needs for capacity development and what experience of CDM exists in the countries, and will build on these in its continued work.

88 7. Financial resources and transfer of technology

7.4.1Initiatives specially focused on the least developed countries

Swedish development cooperation has long empha- sised support to least developed countries and vul- nerable countries with a low GDP per capita. Poor people are to a greater extent dependent on natural resources and agriculture for their survival, and their livelihoods are therefore directly affected by how the climate changes. A changed climate also changes access to clean water, which is already in short sup- ply in many poor countries, and this can lead to con- flicts. Sweden considers that the principal focus in these countries should be on adaptation to the nega- tive effects of climate change and consequently on reducing poor people’s vulnerability and improving their prospects of adapting to climate change that has already happened and is continuing to happen. From the Swedish point of view this is manifested in finding new methods to assist people in adapt- ing to new living conditions, for example through a greater focus on food safety, energy supply and water resource management. In addition, Sweden contrib- utes humanitarian assistance to those affected by ex- treme weather conditions.

Climate change adaptation and conflicts in Kenya

NCCK (National Council of Churches of Kenya) has been one of Diakonia’s partner organisations since 2002. Diakonia and NCCK cooperate principally to reach peaceful resolutions of the conflicts between ethnic groups that arise in the Turkana area of Northern Kenya due to scarce natural resources. The drought, worsened by climate change, threatens to intensify the conflict. NCCK is work- ing to bring young warriors from the parties to the conflict together for talks. NCCK has also developed a system that helps people to recognise when the risk of drought increases so that the population of the area has an opportunity to prepare for an imminent period of drought.

It is often difficult to distinguish pure adaptation interventions from development interventions Ad- aptation to a large degree overlaps what is defined as sustainable development. Sustainable develop- ment provides gains in terms of building resilience and reducing vulnerability, two factors that are cru- cial to the capacity of individuals and societies to adapt. Sweden emphasises that it is crucial to en- sure that the effects of climate change are integrat- ed into the analysis of any risks for the contribution. There is a otherwise a risk of “maladaptation”, which means that people’s vulnerability increases as a con- sequence of the contribution.

Adaptation in some cases requires cooperation across sector boundaries and often regionally across

national boundaries,particularly in relation to admin- istration of shared resources such as in the ICIMOD programme, which Sweden supports.

International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development

Global warming poses a serious threat to the Himalayan region. The melting of glaciers will affect the water suppliers of 1.3 billion people, and ecosystems in the area are under threat. Sida there- fore supports the work of the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development aimed at developing adaptation strategies and improving resilience in the region. The five modules of the pro- gramme include developing a satellite-based system for monitoring change in the region’s icecap, vulnerability and analysis of adapta- tion in communities close to dams at high risk of bursting, mapping of present-day water management, development of more efficient energy use and increased regional collaboration on these issues.

Sweden is also working to enhance the understand- ing of how climate change affects the development prospects of countries. In addition to regional and bi- lateral operations, Sida therefore supports the pan- African programme Climate Information for Devel- opment in Africa (ClimDev-Africa), which aims to integrate management of climate change into deci- sion-making process by producing climate data and projections.The programme is a joint effort between the African Union Commission (AUC), the Afri- can Development Bank (AfDB) and the Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA) in Addis Abeba in Ethiopia. In the short term, the programme aims at helping African countries to become better able to cope with climate variability that already exists and in the long term at reducing the risks and improving resilience to the effects of climate change.The initia- tive is driven by a number of African countries that have joined forces to jointly raise awareness, increase the availability of data, communicate climate change information, improve the quality of planning proc- esses and develop support for risk management.

The Kenya Water and Sanitation Programme (KWSP) is aimed at sup- porting the implementation of reforms in the Kenyan water sector, improving the management of water resources and making invest- ments in water supply and sanitation for poor people in rural areas. KWSP comprises a budget of €50 million over five years (2005- 2009) and is funded by Sweden, together with Denmark and Ken- ya. The programme includes the sub-component Flood and Drought Mitigation, which is aimed at supporting the Water Resource Users’ Association on water resource management issues to enable them to adapt to floods and drought and to ensure equitable access to water. A development cycle containing four categories has been designed in this work: reduced risk of conflict, regulation for eq- uitable control and distribution of water resources, preservation of water reserves and resources, and improved efficiency in the use and management of water resources.

7. Financial resources and transfer of technology	89

7.5Technology development

and diffusion

Swedish environmental technology exports totalled SEK 33 billion in 2007. The largest individual sec- tor is waste management and recycling, but many of the current environmental technology solutions such as district heating, biogas, underground waste transport, geothermal heating and geothermal cool- ing have existed on a large scale in Sweden for many years.The Swedish Trade Council is working to facil- itate exports by Swedish companies, in areas such as environmental technology and waste management, recycling, bioenergy, solar energy, wind power and energy efficiency. Bilateral technological cooperation with China focused on sustainable urban develop- ment has been in progress since April 2008. Sino- Swedish Environmental Technology Cooperation involves three Swedish ministries and their Chinese counterparts in the region concerned.An example of a specific project is the development of biofuel and distribution for the city of Wuhan.

SymbioCity is a new export concept driven by the Swedish Trade Council that supports holistic and sustainable urban development. The initiative involves the private sector and is aimed at highlight- ing the synergies that exist between different supply systems in the modern city and that have the potential to provide both envi- ronmental and financial gains, including reduced greenhouse gas emissions. Work on holistic urban development and efficient re- source management has been in progress in Sweden for more than 50 years, and this experience forms the basis of SymbioCity. The SymbioCity concept has been applied in other cities around the world, such as in Luodian Town, Tianjin Guangdong in China, Buf- falo City in South Africa and Pune in India.

Sweden considers the private sector to have an im- portant role in technological development and dif- fusion. However, with the aim of creating the nec- essary conditions for the private sector becoming involved in developing countries support is often re- quired to reduce the risk, and loans and guarantees or risk credit can be used for this purpose.

From the point of view of development, the issue of technology is more than physical transfer of hard- ware or software, it is more a matter of develop- ing capacity in developing countries to receive, use and develop technology. Development cooperation has an important role to play in this context, and Sweden undertakes technology and research coop- eration with significant elements of capacity devel- opment with a number of partner countries.This ap- proach is crucial to the opportunities for developing countries to benefit from and themselves contribute

to the development of sustainable technological so- lutions adapted to their circumstances.

Distance master’s programme on sustainable energy engineering

The Royal Institute of Technology (KTH), with support from Sida, conducts a distance Master’s programme on sustainable energy technology in partnership with universities in Uganda, Mozam- bique, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Zambia, Mexico, the Maldives and Sri Lanka, with a total of around 150 distance students admitted an- nually. 80 students a year receive scholarships from Sida. KTH has developed an interactive web platform which contains, for example, all educational material, including lectures, study visits and indi- vidual laboratory and calculation exercises. It is intended that the programme will be transferred to the partner university after 5-7 years with continued closed contact with KTH.

Sweden attaches great importance to adapting tech- nological solutions to local circumstances in devel- oping countries, utilising national knowledge and re- cruiting national expertise in the area concerned. An example is the project relating to Energy Services Companies (ESCO) in Zambia, where Sida and SEI created a network of existing privately owned com- panies in the energy sector. Instead of implement- ing ready-made technological solutions directly at the end-users, a long-term sustainable solution was established for energy supply in the form of local companies that could procure system solutions for leasing and offer user training, servicing and mainte- nance of the installations.

The Swedish Agency for Economic and Regional Growth is implementing on Sida’s behalf the Demo- Miljö project, which relates to environmental tech- nology initiatives in the areas of sustainable urban development and renewable energy. The assistance is targeted at Sweden’s partner countries in Africa, Asia, Latin America and Eastern and Central Europe, and creates opportunities for authorities, local gov- ernments, institutions and companies in these coun- tries to try out new technology in areas such as air pollution, water and sanitation, waste management, energy saving, renewable energy and urban trans- port. A waste management project in Chennai in India which is being implemented under Demo- Miljö is aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions by generating biogas from utilised biological waste. The biodigestor for the project comes from Sweden.

The StartSyd and StartÖst programmes offer small and medium-sized enterprises in around 40 of Sida’s partner countries in Africa, Asia, Latin America and Eastern Europe the opportunity to apply for financial support for knowledge transfer and equipment. The aim is to contribute to improved prospects for eco-

90 7. Financial resources and transfer of technology

Table 7.5 Examples of support containing environmental technology transfer

Project: Pilot Project Providing Electricity Services Using Photovoltaic Solar Systems through Energy Service Companies in Rural areas in Zambia

Aim: Develop guidelines for the necessary economic, institutional and governing conditions required for successful development of energy service companies (ESCOs) in rural areas.

			Length of the
Recipient country:	Sector:	Total support:	project:
Zambia	Energy	SEK 12.8m	1998-2006

Description: The project supports the formation of local “energy service companies” that can supply energy services to the rural population. The companies receive financial support to purchase PV systems, which they lease to the local population and local contrac- tors. The companies install and maintain the system.

Factors that led to success: Considerable account was taken of the service life of the system in choosing heating systems and mainte- nance. To make the systems sustainable, there has been a strong focus on increasing administrative capacity. A maintenance charge for the user has also been introduced. As the system is expensive for the average citizen, a platform has been developed to facilitate grants and loans.

Technology transferred: PV energy technology, leadership and admin- istrative skills, marketing capacity

Effect on greenhouse gas emissions: (no information available)

Programme: Asia Sustainable and Alternative Energy Programme

Aim: Increase the use of alternative and renewable energy sources and improve the efficiency of energy use in Asia

		Total	Length of the
Recipient country:	Sector:	support:	project:
China, Vietnam, Indone-	Energy	SEK 15m	2007-2009
sia, India and Bangladesh

Description: The project has been implemented in a selection of Asian countries in one million households in order to improve access to renewable energy while promoting energy savings, for instance through information campaigns and documentary films. Other donors are the Netherlands, the United Kingdom and the United States.

Factors that led to success: “Innovative Investment Delivery Mechanisms”, development of institutional and legal frameworks, exchange of training and knowledge. The programme has also gener- ated additional investments from the GEF, the World Bank and local financiers totalling hundreds of millions of dollars.

Technology transferred: Institutional support in the form of the energy and infrastructure sector, development of energy services for 1.1 million households (coconut oil, wind, biomass, small-scale hydropower etc.), increase in generating capacity of 1 455 MW.

Effect on greenhouse gas emissions: direct reduction of 2.2 million tonnes/year (indirect reduction 515 million tonnes/year)

nomic growth for sustainable, profitable and produc- tive small and medium-sized enterprises. With effect from 2009 Swedfund is taking over implementation of the programmes to develop the business-oriented development cooperation in accordance with Swed- ish global development policy. Swedfund also offers venture capital and expertise for investments in de- veloping countries to create profitable companies in the formal sector, strengthen the local business com- munity in poor countries and consequently contrib- ute to sustainable poverty reduction. The work is partly focused on what are known as Clean Tech in- vestments in developing countries with major envi- ronmental problems. [Table 7.5]

7.6Capacity building

Capacity development is a critical factor in enabling developing countries to face up to climate change. Capacity is required to receive financial and tech- nology-related support for adaptation and mitiga- tion and to ensure that such support is sustainable. National expertise and know-how on climate change and its effects is significant, as well as strengthening institutions so that the countries in the longer term will themselves be able to integrate climate change into their planning process and pursue a national cli- mate change policy. Sweden has found that the best results are achieved when capacity development is based on countries’ own needs and priorities and is a joint learning process owned and operated nation- ally but taking place in partnership. It is therefore important to strengthen the national systems instead of creating new ones.

Sida has been funding a training programme ‘International Train- ing Programme’ (ITP) focused on emissions mitigation and adaptation, which is implemented by the Swedish Meteorological and Hydro- logical Institute (SMHI) in cooperation with SWECO and SEI since 2006. The aim is to improve knowledge of climate change and its effects and provide the 25 selected participants with tools to iden- tify vulnerable sectors in their countries and develop projects in their homelands with support from the organisers. The target group is individuals in leading positions in administration, national or local, non-governmental organisations, universities or companies. Evaluations show that the participants rate the course highly and that the training has greatly increased their knowledge of climate change. A large majority of the participants also thought that the contents were of great or very great significance to their continued work, and a number of important contacts had been established with experts in Sweden.

Capacity development is primarily an integral part of the programmes and projects supported by Sida.The integrated approach is of key significance as capac- ity cannot develop in a vacuum and is always linked to the relevant activity. It is important to ask ‘capac- ity for what?’. Sweden considers it important to take a broader grip on capacity development in training and research, but also to raise capacity institutionally through various forms of support to and cooperation with the national and local institutions. In addition, Sweden considers it crucial to ensure that the devel- oping countries’ negotiators are supported in the cli- mate change negotiation process.

7. Financial resources and transfer of technology	91

The European Capacity Building Initiative (ECBI) programme is di- rectly linked to UNFCCC and is aimed at strengthening the nego- tiating group for developing countries, G77, in the climate change negotiations. Climate change negotiators from G77 and the EU are offered a unique platform for meetings and capacity development at which key concepts and technology transfer are discussed and analysed. According to an evaluation, the programme has contrib- uted to developing countries having become more successful at speaking with one voice in the negotiations, and there has been increased understanding between negotiators from the different blocks. The developing countries have in a short time improved their prospects of achieving the long-term aim of strengthening the perspective of poor and vulnerable countries in the climate change negotiations. Swedish support totalled SEK 4.8 million over the period 2005-2007.

Sustainable City Planning in Pune

Sustainable City Planning Pune (SCPP) is a project in which Pune Municipal Corporation (PMC) and Sida cooperate. The programme aims to enhance skills in sustainable urban planning, focusing on mobility and physical planning. The project contains a number of different activities in the areas of physical planning, sustainable transport systems and high-quality public transport. The partici- pants visited Sweden in May 2008 to hear about Swedish expe- rience, for example, including from the eco-towns of Hammarby Sjöstad in Stockholm and Västa Hamnen in Malmö.

Sida’s research cooperation is aimed at strengthen- ing the research capacity of partner countries and promoting development-oriented research. This contains support to cooperating countries to create enabling research environments and training of re- search scientists and to develop methods to plan and prioritise research. Promoting development-orient- ed research means both financially and scientifically supporting the opportunities of partner countries to identify new knowledge in areas that are significant for their development.

Innovative climate research in Southeast Asia

Sida has cooperated with regional environmental economics re- search networks in Southeast Asia, Africa and Latin America for almost 15 years. The networks are based to varying degrees on the successful model EEPSEA (Economy and Environment Programme for Southeast Asia), which has been devised to strengthen research capacity in the area of environmental economics. Swedish support for 2005-2007 totalled SEK 29 million. The network is one of the more significant in southern Asia and assisted in the IPCC (Inter- governmental Panel on Climate Change) investigative protocol in 2007. The network’s innovative research on the role of mangrove swamps in reducing the negative effects in cyclones and tsunamis has attracted great attention both locally and internationally. The network has also undertaken extensive mapping with regard to five climate change and disaster risk reduction-related threats – tropi- cal cyclones, floods, earthquakes, drought and rising sea levels – which has been of great importance both for national policies and for international development assistance.

The cooperation pursued in natural science and technology, natural resources and the environment is relevant from the point of view of climate change. In addition, a contribution is made to capacity build- ing for instance through support for the build-up of universities and research councils in develop- ing countries. The ‘sandwich method’ used by Sida, which is based on alternating studies in the home country with studies abroad, has proved successful in enabling researchers and students to remain in their countries on completing their education and there- fore not allowing the capacity to be lost through a ‘brain drain’. Thematic research programmes in nat- ural resources and the environment, technology and industrialisation, as well as natural science, are also funded.

Support for research on sustainable development in Mozambique

Since 1989, SIDA has been supporting work at the Department of Physics at the Eduardo Mondlane University (UEM) in Maputo in Mozambique to establish a fundamental structure for research and a favourable scientific climate. These initiatives have led to the first attempt to develop complex research in the area of sustainable environment in Mozambique. Swedish resources have contributed greatly to the development of capacity in the department with re- gard to both research and research training. UEM has identified greenhouse gas emissions due to uncontrolled forest fires, desert spread due to overuse of forest and land and air and soil pollution in connection with energy production, industry and mining as the environmental and climate change problems with the greatest po- tential to seriously undermine sustainable development in Mozam- bique. Sida has been supporting a research programme for energy, environment and climate change that conducts research on these areas since 2006.

92 7. Financial resources and transfer of technology

7. Financial resources and transfer of technology	93

8Research and systematic observation

8.1Policy, organisation and funding of R&D and systematic observation

8.1.1 Climate research policy

Swedish research efforts since the Fourth Nation- al Communication (NC4) have continued to focus on sustainable development and an interdisciplinary approach, but according to the latest research policy bill57 Sweden’s position as a research nation focused on innovation and competitiveness in a globalised world is to be strengthened. The research is largely to be undertaken in areas that are, or are likely to become, significant to human prosperity, the devel- opment of society and the competitiveness of trade and industry. The Government considers that cli- mate impact is one of the great challenges facing humanity which cannot be addressed without new knowledge.

In the 2009 Climate Bill58 there is feedback to those new strategic research efforts that are climate related. The climate-related strategic efforts relate to i) climate models, ii) effects on natural resources, energy research (including alternatives to fossil fuels, environment- and climate-adapted production of bi- omass for raw materials and biofuels, including in- dustrial biotechnology), and iv) security and emer- gency preparedness (research to enhance emergen- cy preparedness and strengthen security in a broad range of risks, threats, emergencies and disasters).

The greatest new resources go to energy research and the development of technologies that reduce the climate change impact of the energy and transport sectors, such as wind power, second-generation ve- hicle biofuels and hybrid vehicles. Closely linked to energy issues is sustainable exploitation of natural re- sources when there is need for an increase in energy sources from the agricultural and forestry sectors.

57 Ett lyft för forskning och innovation (A boost for research and innovation), GovernmentBill 2008/09:50.

58 An Integrated Climate and Energy Policy, Government Bill 2008/09: 162.

ResearchontheBalticSeahasbeen further strength- ened, and climate is a new area in this investment. Other important areas that relate to work on climate change are being strengthened, such as research on the vulnerability of society to and preparedness for climate change, as well as sustainable public planning, where large climate gains can be achieved.

Swedish research is also being strengthened for the Arctic, and the Swedish Polar Research Secretariat has been given new and expanded tasks, including responsibility for the scientific research station at Abisko in northern Sweden. The Swedish Polar Re- search Secretariat was already responsible for expe- ditions and research activity in the Arctic and Ant- arctic. As climate change has become an increasing- ly important social issue, polar research has come to focus on climate change and its consequences. Sweden has taken part in a large number of projects for the country during the International Polar Year and offers important research platforms for inter- national collaboration on climate research in the Arctic, Antarctic and Northern Sweden, such as the icebreaker Oden, the satellite Odin and the research stations Abisko and Tarfala.

Nordic collaboration aimed for

The Nordic prime ministers have decided that the Nordic countries should invest in top-level research in the area of climate, energy and environment (the ‘Top Research Initiative’) with a joint programme totalling SEK 480 million over five years. By utilis- ing networks that are already established, such Nor- dForsk, the Nordic Innovation Centre and Nordic Energy Research, the programme is to coordinate initiatives on a Nordic level to integrate top-level re- search, innovation, trade and industry, national inter- ests, Nordic added value and globalisation.

94 8. Research and systematic observation

European collaboration

Sweden supports EU cooperation and takes part in several EU-funded networks, such as ERA-NET, which is a form of cooperation between funders to develop European research cooperation, exchange experience and conduct joint calls for proposals for research funds (see 8.2).

Participation in the European Space Agency (ESA) and the European Southern Observatory (ESO) principally contributes to the supply of observation- al data.

Global collaboration

Sweden and Swedish researchers take part in several global research activities, for example IPCC, World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), Internation- al Geosphere and Biosphere Programme (IGBP), In- ternational Human Dimension Programme (IHDP). Swedish research also contributes to cooperation in international facilities. By participating in the nucle- ar research organisation Conseil Européen pour la Recherche Nucléaire (CERN), Sweden has contrib- uted to creating a platform for data storage, which as a secondary effect also assists with the storage of large quantities of climate data.

8.1.2 Organisation

Research funders

Central government and other parts of the public sector are the largest funders of research at univer- sities and colleges. The most important public pro- viders of research funding alongside the direct ap- propriations to universities and colleges from central government are research councils and some other research-funding authorities in support of their own activities. Research foundations and the EU, munici- palities and county councils also fund research. If the private sector is also included, the business commu- nity is the largest funder of R&D.

Two research councils, the Swedish Research Council (VR) and the Swedish Research Council for Environment, Agricultural Sciences and Spatial Planning (Formas), are significant sources of funding for climate-related research. Government agencies that fund climate-related research and development are the Swedish Energy Agency, the Swedish Agency for Innovation Systems (VINNOVA) and the Swe dish Environmental Protection Agency.

Public funds for research and development also include research funded by certain research foun- dations. Among these, the Swedish Foundation for Strategic Environmental Research (MISTRA) is par-

ticularly significant in the context of climate. The Foundation is not controlled by the Government or the Swedish Government, but the Government ap- points board members.

The Swedish Space Agency funds satellite meas- urements relevant to climate as part of its national research and remote-sensing programmes.

The Swedish Energy Agency, MISTRA and the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency have had a joint website59 since 2004 on which they present their current climate-oriented research programmes.

Performers

Almost two-thirds of publicly funded research in Sweden is performed at universities and colleges. Among other public research performers there are industry research institutes and certain sector agen- cies.

All the universities and university colleges have their own research resources and undertake research. Other research-performing institutions of signifi- cance to climate research are the Stockholm Environ- ment Institute, the Stockholm Resilience Centre60 at Stockholm University, the Swedish University of Ag- ricultural Sciences and the Swedish Institute of Ag- ricultural and Environmental Engineering. The Bert Bolin Centre for Climate Research61 focusing on cli- mate and geosciences has recently been established at Stockholm University. The Rossby Centre at the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute is responsible for national climate modelling. In addi- tion there is a Centre for Climate Science and Policy Research at Linköping University.

Centres or other forms of organisation have been created at most universities in order to improve the prospects for coordination of research and training, often in dialogue with industry and society.

8.1.3 Funding

The combined research investment in climate and climate-related energy research totalled an average of around SEK 1.2 billion over the period 2005- 2008. The majority, averaging SEK 800-850 million annually, was addressed to climate-related energy research via the Swedish Energy Agency’s research programme, whereof a large part to development and demonstration projects. Around SEK 80 mil- lion per year has been distributed to research on the climate system and climate models, just over SEK 180 million/year to research on effects and adapta- tion and socio-economic analyses. This does not in-

59www.sweclipp.se.

60www.stockholmresilience.org.

61www.bbcc.su.se.

8. Research and systematic observation	95

clude the faculties’ general basic state funding. Nor do these sums include state funds for research in de- veloping countries.

The total appropriations for research were sharply increased in the government budget for 2010-2012. Together with the 2009 increase, total public alloca- tions reach one per cent of GDP, which follows the Government’s definition of the formulation in the Lisbon Agenda. The annual research appropriations increase by SEK 5 billion from 2012, of which just over SEK 500 million relates to research focused on climate and energy.

Research funding over the period 2005-2008 in- dicates a greatly increased focus on climate-related issues. The principal funders the Swedish Research Council, FORMAS, VINNOVA, and where appro- priate the Swedish Space Agency have had several initiatives targeted at the climate system, the effects of climate change and adaptation.

The Foundation for Strategic Environmental Re- search (Mistra), which adopts a broad approach in its research funding, has also invested in research on changed processes in industry to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases with an environmental and climate impact, particulates and other pollutants.

Sector funders such as the Swedish Energy Agency and the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency fund several long-term research programmes focused on climate, or climate-related issues.

The Swedish Space Agency part-funds the satellite Odin and contributes to the European Space Agency (ESA) and Global Monitoring for the Environment and Security (GMES), which mostly relates to im- proved environmental monitoring.

The Swedish International Development Coop- eration Agency (Sida) provides support to the ca- pacity building of developing countries by undertak- ing its own research as a basis for work among other things on adaptation to climate change.

As well as financing research, government funds are spent on infrastructure for data storage.

8.1.4 Systematic observation

Climate observations comprise the systematic collec- tion of data on meteorology, hydrology and oceanog- raphy. In addition, monitoring of sources and sinks for greenhouse gases is included, as well as climate- related effects on ecosystems, for example changes in vegetation and soil.

Demands for measurements related to vegetation and soil conditions are increasing. Some government agencies62 have created a joint archive of satellite

62 The national land survey organisation Lantmäteriet, the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency, the Swedish Forest Agency and the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI).

96 8. Research and systematic observation

data63. Multispectral, optical satellite data covering the whole of Sweden is added to the archive annu- ally at 10-30 metres resolution, gathered during the vegetation period. The archive helps users to study changes in the Swedish landscape and the environ- ment over the past three decades. Sweden has a well developed systematic observation system, and the length of Swedish measurement series in many cases is unparalleled in the world.

Responsible organisations

The Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Insti- tute (SMHI) provides society with meteorological, hydrological and oceanographic data and is responsi- ble for the long-term build-up and operation of the national databases. Through SMHI, Sweden contrib- utes to establishing monitoring systems in certain de- veloping countries.

SMHI represents Sweden at the World Meteoro- logical Organisation (WMO), the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission and the Group on Earth Observations (GEO). GEO has been tasked with es- tablishing, by 2015, a world-wide system, Global En- vironment Observation System of Systems (GEOSS), containing earth observation data from various space- and ground-based sources. SMHI represents Sweden on ECMWF and in the Europe-wide satellite pro- grammes in EUMETSAT, of which climate monitor- ing has become an increasingly essential part.

The Swedish Environmental Protection Agency is responsible for the coordination of environmen- tal monitoring. Environmental monitoring contrib- utes to following the effects of climate change in all biogeochemical systems, but also to following the long-term trend in the effects of the measures on ecosystems and society. Government-funded envi- ronmental monitoring is divided into ten different programme areas: air, coast and sea, freshwater, wet- land, forest, agricultural land, mountain areas, land- scape, toxic substances coordination and health-re- lated environmental monitoring.

The Swedish Environmental Protection Agency represents Sweden at the European Energy Agency (EEA), which coordinates European monitoring, and in the UN Environmental Programme, and is the Focal Point for the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

The Swedish Space Agency represents Sweden at the European Space Agency (ESA), FP 7 Theme Space and on the GMES64 Advisory Council (GAC).

63www.saccess.lantmateriet.se.

64Global Monitoring for the Environment and Security.

The Swedish Space Agency additionally works on bi- lateral and multilateral satellite projects, one exam- ple of which is the satellite ODIN, with stratospheric ozone monitoring.

The Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences

(SLU), through its continuous environmental anal- ysis, is responsible for a large part of Swedish en- vironmental monitoring. It conducts an inventory of forest and land in the National Forest Invento- ry (RIS) programme, which covers everything from forest and soil status to environmental monitoring of biodiversity and carbon sequestration in forest and soil.

8.2Programmes for and funding of climate-related research

It is becoming increasingly difficult to place research initiatives under a particular heading as programmes are tending to become increasingly interdisciplinary. The research programme SWECIA65, Mistra SWEd- ish research programme on Climate, Impacts and Ad- aptation, can be taken as an example of this. SWE- CIA (divided below into various areas) is an inter- disciplinary research programme that covers climate processes, climate impacts, climate economics and adaptation to a changed climate. The research areas are studied in an integrated manner and are to con- tribute to building knowledge of impact and adap- tation research in Sweden with climate modelling and the development of regional scenarios as key el- ements of the programme.

Another problem is that the research funds award- ed for example by the Swedish Research Council go to individual projects that are in competition. It is therefore difficult to ascertain whether these funds are also used in larger programme initiatives.

8.2.1Climate processes and climate systems, including palaeoclimatic studies

The Climate Evolution, Variability and Sensitivi- ty Programme focuses on transboundary research on climate trends. It has five main themes: climate variations, atmospheric and oceanic circulation, boundary conditions for the modelling of atmos- pheric and oceanic circulation, small-scale proc- esses with large-scale climate effects, biochemical cycles (carbon and water cycles). Questions ad- dressed include whether cloud formation is affect- ed by emissions of greenhouse gases and particu- lates by modern society, the role of the greenhouse

65 The programme is funded by the Swedish Foundation for Strategic Environmental Research (MISTRA) and is a cooperation between SMHI, the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI), the Department of Meteorology (MISU) and the Institute for Interna- tional Economic Studies at Stockholm University (IIES), as well as the Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Analysis (INES) at Lund University.

effect for the global climate and warming in the Arctic.

Research on the carbon cycle in offshore areas of the Baltic Sea contributes knowledge for climate re- searchers who attempt to incorporate the seas into their models. The research does not just apply spe- cifically to the Baltic Sea but is also intended to de- scribe processes in other seas.

Stockholm University, SMHI and the Rossby Centre are taking part in several international projects, contributing for instance to the EU project BALTEX, which focuses on hydrology, climate and water management in the catchment area of the Baltic Sea.

Swedish researchers are taking part in programmes for research on sustainable development in develop- ing countries, with projects for instance on carbon dynamics in agricultural soils in sub-Saharan Africa.

8.2.2Modelling and scenarios (includingGCMs)

The Rossby Centre focuses on climate modelling and the development of regional scenarios that can be used in impact and adaptation studies, among other things in the research programme SWECIA. Sweden takes part through the Rossby Centre in the EU FP6 project ENSEMBLES and Climate and Energy Systems (CES), which is funded by the Nordic Council. A common feature is the develop- ment of credible climate scenarios for the 20th cen- tury for Europe. Sweden is also taking part in the EU FP6 project DAMOCLES, which is intended to increase understanding of, and examine the options for modelling, changed sea-ice conditions in the Arctic. Rossby has contributed to this cooperation with the very first linked regional climate scenarios for the Arctic.

Sweden is also active in the European Earth Mod- elling Consortium, which is to develop a Global Earth System Model. The work is taking place at the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), which is to contribute a large ensemble of General Circulation Model (GCM) scenarios to the international cooperation to com- pare models (5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5)) under the WCRP (World Climate Research Programme). CNIP5 is the principal tool for the next IPCC evaluation. The Rossby Centre also takes part in the efforts of the WCRP to coordi- nate work on a down-scaling of CMIP5 of the global scenarios to assist in obtaining better resolution for Africa in particular.

8. Research and systematic observation	97

8.2.3 Impacts of climate change

The SWECIA programme looks at impacts on the basis of modelling as a tool. Changes in water re- sources in Lake Mälaren, for instance, are studied by converting climate scenarios into hydrological mod- els. Another impact study in the programme is the stimulation of forests and forestry by developing a dynamic vegetation model that also includes forest stewardship and disturbance dynamics. SWECIA is also developing models that cover Arctic terrestrial ecosystems.

Monitoring, experimental and modelling activity takes place at the Abisko Scientific Research Station (ANS). ANS hosts a unique set of long-term experi- ments of environmental manipulation that attract researchers from all parts of the world. The purpose of the experiments is to understand how increased carbon dioxide levels, UVB radiation, ground tem- perature, air temperature and snow depth affect ec- osystems and their processes. Recently, a study has been initiated on how ecosystems are affected by warm periods in mid-winter. Research on permafrost and methane emissions has been in progress over a long period, and carbon flows in the catchment area are measured continuously.

At the research station in Tarfala annual glacier measures have been made since 1946. Research that also contributes to monitoring is done in meteorol- ogy, hydrology, snow-chemistry and ice-chemistry measurements and permafrost.

During the International Polar Year ice-core sam- ples were taken for analysis of the changing climate. Further, carbon flows from Siberia out to the Arctic Ocean, permafrost melting and coastal erosion were studied, as well as the significance of Arctic summer clouds for the climate system in the Arctic.

8.2.4Socioeconomic analyses (incl. impacts of climate change, adaptation needs and possible adaptation measures)

A 10-year programme66 focusing on the interface between social science and natural science, between knowledge and action, is being funded at Lund Uni- versity67 with the emphasis on problem-solving re- search and critical examination among other things of climate change, loss of biodiversity and how land use is changing.

The Stockholm Resilience Centre68 conducts inter disciplinary research and integrates social scienc-

66 Linneaus grant around SEK 10m for 10 years.

67 Lund University Centre of Excellence for integration of social and natural dimensions of sustainability (LUCID).

68 Stockholm University, Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics at the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences and the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI). Funded by MISTRA, among others.

98 8. Research and systematic observation

es, the humanities and natural science. The focus is on continued production of ecosystem services for human prosperity, and building resilience for long- term sustainable development.

The principal task of the research programme CLI- MATOOLS69 is to develop new tools that can be used for local/regional and sectoral climate adapta- tion work. The focus is on the ability to deal with the uncertainties climate change brings with it in the short and medium term. The programme is intend- ed, for instance, to devise a new method for scenar- io-based decision support (convergence seminars) suited to climate adaptation and a manual for the analysis of the health effects of climate change and provide guidance instructions for adaptation strate- gies.

The International Climate Policy Programme70 comprises several research projects focused on market-based instruments, such as the flexible mechanisms of the Kyoto Protocol and the EU’s emissions trading scheme, research on the devel- opment and formulation of future internation- al climate agreements and on the interaction be- tween policy, legislation and economics and the impact this has on the outlook for climate-policy measures.

The General Energy Systems Studies Programme71 (AES) and the Energy Systems Programme72, are both aimed at contributing to wide-ranging knowl- edge of how the energy system works and of the prospects of building environmentally sustainable energy systems. Under these programmes, energy systems are analysed not just on the basis of techni- cal and economic factors but also with regard to in- stitutional factors and the social function of energy systems. Several of the research projects in the pro- grammes are closely linked to the issue of climate change.

The ELAN programme73 focuses on the energy use of households and man’s use of technology. The research under this programme is undertaken by multidisciplinary research teams in technological and behavioural science.

The Nordic Energy Perspectives project analyses political objectives at national and international level in the area of energy, their impact on the Nordic energy markets and the various energy systems. The objective is to analyse and identify consequences of different strategic decisions in a dialogue between re- search scientists and decision-makers, as well as for market players and the general public.

69 Cooperation between the Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI), the Royal College of Technology and Umeå University, and funded by the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency.

70 Funded by the Swedish Energy Agency.

71 Funded by the Swedish Energy Agency.

72 Funded by the Swedish Energy Agency.

73 Funded by Elforsk.

The LUCSUS74 centre at Lund University is in- tended to pursue issues of sustainable development by initiating and coordinating interdisciplinary re- search proposals. A large part of this research takes place under EU programmes such as Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies (ADAM).

Sweden takes part in the European ERA-NET CIRCLE (Climate Impact Research Cooperation within a Larger Europe), which is focused on impacts of and adaptation to a changed climate. Sweden has conducted a joint call for proposals within this ERA- NET with Finland and Norway on the consequences of climate change on climate policy.

8.2.5Measures for emissions reduction and adaptation to climate change

An interdisciplinary research programme75, studying ways in which Sweden can steer towards low-car- bon and sustainable energy and transport systems in 2050, will run until 2012 at Lund University in co- operation with Luleå University.

The Clipore programme76, in which several uni- versities both in Sweden and in India, Norway and the United States are involved, is focused on the im- plementation of future international climate policy. This programme was launched in 2004 and was renewed in 2007 for another five years. The pro- gramme is to be implemented during this second period in close integration with the negotiation proc- ess in UNFCCC and the formulation of policy after Kyoto and EU greenhouse gas emissions trading. Al- ternative policy instruments, particularly for sectors not included in the trading scheme, are analysed and how these could be linked to the trading scheme. The programme is also focused on developing coun- tries and policy instruments.

IVL is developing a national Integrated Assessment Modelling (IAM) model in close cooperation with IIASA. This activity is intended to contribute assess- ments of future policy on air pollution and provide a basis for optimising measures that can achieve both air and climate policy goals at low cost.

A research programme for forest77, which takes the form of a strategy for forest and forest-industry research, is intended to develop new knowledge for sustainable forestry. Examples of such knowledge are water quality, nutrient cycles, biodiversity and adap- tations to – and mitigation of – climate change.

Several parallel programmes78 are aimed at closing the cycle for the paper and pulp industry, processes

74 Lund University Centre for Sustainability Studies, LUCSUS.

75 www.lets2050.se Funded by the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency, the Swedish Energy Agency, VINNOVA and the Swedish Road Administration.

76 Climate Policy Research Programme, funded by Mistra.

77 Future Forests, funded by Mistra.

78 Read about the programmes at www.mistra.se.

in the steel industry to reduce the use of resources, reduce energy use and use the energy that is formed in the processes.

Five centres of expertise and around fifty research and development programmes in various scientific areas are funded under the Energy Research Pro- gramme79 . The programme was presented in NC4, and only a brief summary therefore follows here.

•Issues relating to sustainable energy production principally with biofuels are studied in fuel-based energy systems. Particular attention is paid to measures concerned with the commitments un- der the Kyoto Protocol, as well as the EU’s cli- mate targets and targets for renewable energy by 2020.

•The research area of transport focuses on produc- tion of renewable vehicle fuels and more efficient vehicle engines powered by alternative fuels. The research is intended to study the relationship be- tween powertrains, renewable vehicle fuels and emissions, particularly carbon dioxide.

•In the research area of electricity production and power transmission there is research on the re- newable forms of energy wind power, solar power and tidal power and the development and mod- ernisation of hydropower and combined heat and power.

•In the area of construction, research is focused on reducing the energy needs of buildings and replac- ing fossil fuels with renewable ones.

•In the area of industry, efforts are focused on the pulp and paper industry, as well as the steel, chemical and mining and mineral industries. More efficient utilisation of energy in energy-demand- ing process stages is aimed for in particular here. This applies both to electricity and heating, and to both fossil and renewable energy sources. Vehicle fuels derived from forest biomass are an important area of development.

8.2.6International cooperation on climate- relatedresearch and support for developingcountries

Swedish researchers cooperate with developing countries on agricultural research through CGIAR80, in which 16 different research institutions in devel- oping countries take part. Swedish Research Links promotes collaboration between Swedish research- ers and scientists in Asia, the Middle East, North Africa and South Africa. There are a number of re-

79 Funded by the Swedish Energy Agency.

80 The Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research is funded by Sida/ SAREC.

8. Research and systematic observation	99

search networks with different orientation, for ex- ample in environmental technology81, environmen- tal economics82 and policy. Research cooperation in Mozambique relates to energy, the environment and climate, where greenhouse gases are studied as a consequence of uncontrolled forest fires, desert spread as a consequence of overexploitation of for- est and arable land, and air and soil pollution associ- ated with energy production, industry and mining. A research cooperation programme in Honduras together with Uppsala University is studying how adapting the courses of rivers can reduce the risks of flooding.

Atmospheric Brown Clouds (ABC) Asia is a research cooperation programme between Asia, the United States and Europe relating to how brown clouds from the burning of wood and cowpats regionally can contribute to warming of the climate. Sweden supported the project through Sida between 2003 and 2008, principally for operations in Asia. New measuring stations have been installed, and studies have been done on impacts on agriculture, access to water and health. Asian research scientists have taken part in order to enhance their expertise and improve the prospects of their institutions taking part in international cooperation.

8.3Programmes and funding for systematic observation

The basic part of systematic observation comprises measures in meteorology, hydrology and oceanogra- phy. In Sweden there are monitoring systems that have great potential to contribute to more system- atic and cohesive information on changes in land- based systems - an area in which there are partic- ularly great deficiencies at present, including in the Nordic region.

In the framework of the International Polar Year, a compilation83 has been made of previous and on- going measurements of a monitoring nature relating primarily to the Scandinavian polar region. The ob- servation network within the Arctic is to be included in the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS), where the Sustaining Arctic Observing Network (SAON), is also intended in the longer term to be part of the Global Environment Observation System of Systems (GEOSS). Sweden will be able to con- tribute a large quantity of climate-related data from the north of the country.

81 ARRPET, Asian Institute of Technology.

82 SANDEE and EEPSEA Climate Vulnerability in Southeast Asia.

83 Swedish Environmental Monitoring North of 60oN: Grip, H. and Olsson H. ISBN 978-91-7307-152-9, (in the press).

8.3.1National plans, programmes and sup- port for ground-based and space-based climate observations and participation in international cooperation

The principles of systematic monitoring established in GCOS have an impact on Swedish systematic ob- servations. Efforts have been made to ensure that un- interrupted series of observations of high quality are retained, by managing automation with the greatest precision when stations at remote sites are converted from being manned to automatic.

An important aspect in the ongoing development of observation systems in Sweden is creating syner- gies between meteorology, hydrology, oceanography and climate and environment systems. The signif- icance of older data for a deeper understanding of the climate and its variations has increased as a result of improved methods for carrying out re-analyses of different variables. Continuous work on digitising older data is in progress.

Satellites have created a new dimension in climate and environmental monitoring by providing an over- view of surface values and the vertical distribution of climate or environmental components. It is now possi- ble to measure total dimensions and tropospheric col- umns of a number of greenhouse gases and reactive gases from space, as well as concentration profiles.

Sweden has developed a National Geodata Strat- egy. This strategy is based on EU directives such as PSI and Inspire, but is linked to access to national and international environmental and climate data. There are Swedish activities for archiving and cre- ating better access to climate data from research programmes. An assessment of quality and usability and of whether these observations can be included in a sustainable climate observation network will be made from the large supply of research results.

Data and measurements in Swedish environmental monitoring contribute to follow-up of climate effects regionally, which is an important step towards global understanding of the problem of climate change.The Swedish monitoring of terrestrial systems which may be of particular interest regionally covers, for exam- ple, soil type, land use, vegetation type, biomass and groundwater.

Monitoring of biomass and land use

The National Inventory of Landscapes in Sweden (NILS) is a programme under the national environ- mental monitoring of the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency. The primary aim is to monitor

100 8. Research and systematic observation

the essential conditions for biodiversity in a land- scape perspective. Monitoring takes place through the interpretation of aerial photography and field inventories, in a network of over 600 fixed sample plots of 5x5 km over all kinds of soil types. Satellite- based monitoring of changes in vegetation and physi- cal excavations in wetlands came into operation in 2007. A project aimed at following the impacts of climate change focusing on the mountain areas start- ed in 2009. The shift in the tree and forest line will be monitored.

Under the Swedish Space Agency’s national remote sensing programme, a project relating to sat- ellite monitoring of protected tropical forests (World Heritage Tropical Forests) and mapping of illegal log- ging is being supported.

Monitoring of change in carbon balance

Climate-related environmental monitoring is under- taken through the National Forest Inventory, which encompasses the National Forest Survey and the For- est Soil Inventory.These monitoring programmes are important in tracking changes in forest and soil, and the quantity of carbon sequestrated in vegetation. The National Forest Survey forms part of the Of- ficial Statistics of Sweden, and there are data going back to 1923. The Inventory comprises more than 10 000 sample plots visited each year and invento- ried during the time of year when the ground is free of snow. Remote sensing has made a substantial con- tribution to better quality in recent years.

Other national observing systems

There are further databases containing terrestrial data with potential for climate-related work through cli- mate research and climate observation at the Swedish Mapping, Cadastral and Land Registration Authority (Lantmäteriet), the Swedish University of Agricultur- al Sciences (SLU), the SLU Environmental Data Cen- tre (freshwater, coast and sea), the Geological Survey of Sweden (SGU) (groundwater), the Swedish Mete- orological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI).

8.3.2Participation in international cooperation for systematic climate observations incl. GCOS

Sweden contributes to GCOS with long-term obser- vations and measurements of temperature, precipi- tation, wave height, icing, variations in glaciers etc., “Essential Climate Variables” (ECV). Measurement from satellite-based systems is also required for ob-

servations with global, regional and national cover- age. Sweden contributes to several international pro- grammes within the task to fulfil the objectives of the “Implementation Plan for the Global Observing System for Climate in Support of the UNFCCC”.

Atmospheric monitoring

SMHI contributes atmospheric data to the WMO’s World Weather Watch (WWW), which is forward- ed to GCOS. In cooperation within EUMETNET, Sweden contributes data on wind and temperature obtained at various levels through civil aviation, and weather radar contributes information on wind and precipitation. Nordic cooperation and cooperation with EUMETNET are in progress for studies on moisture in the atmosphere.

Monitoring of the sea

SMHI hosts the European EuroGOOS secretariat, and is taking part at the European scale to increase access to data and improve measurement activity, particularly in coastal zones (SEPRISE).. Similar ac- tivities are taking place in the Baltic Sea, where the Baltic Operational Oceanographic System (BOOS) is responsible for coordination and buoys have been established by Sweden, among other nations.

Monitoring of land

SMHI reports water flow data to the Global Terres- trial Observing System, GTOS/ Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC).

As well as the transfer of observational data, Swed- ish institutions are taking part in research and de- velopment of systematic observation, for example in the EU-funded project Carbo-North, which is fo- cused in improving methods for the quantification of discharge and removal of carbon dioxide from soil in northern Russia.

Sweden’s contributions to satellite data for climate monitoring; EUMETSAT – ESA – GMES – GEOSS

Under the EUMETSAT programme, Sweden con- tributes to the development of satellite products for climate monitoring at various scales and assists through Jason-2 in the monitoring of the dynamics of the oceans and of sea levels.

One of Sweden’s most important research and development contributions is refined mapping of clouds and cloud characteristics obtained from data

8. Research and systematic observation	101

provided by the combination of operational and re- search satellites.

Under the cooperation programme of the Europe- an Space Agency (ESA), the Swedish Space Agency assists in the development of new generations of me- teorological satellites and other remote-sensing satel- lites for studies of the Earth and its climate system. In addition, the Swedish Space Agency, together with ESA, contributes towards ensuring continued operation of the Swedish-cooperated satellite Odin. Research satellites, including the environmental sat- ellite ENVISAT, have contributed since 2001, and will continue to contribute, to our understanding of climate.

Sweden joined a new ESA programme for Global Monitoring of Essential Climate Variables (ECV) in 2008. This programme is aimed at utilising old, ex- isting data that can be used to improve the reliability of climate models, for example through re-analyses. There is an understanding in the climate research community today that the ESA’s previous and cur- rent satellites with research assignments are of great significance for climate issues, particularly terrestrial EC variables.

Sweden contributes to the development of a new infrastructure for global observation systems and services based on remote analysis in the European programme Global Monitoring for Environment and Security (GMES). GMES provides strong develop- ment of new measuring systems, processing and in- tegration of satellite and ground-based data relating to land, sea and atmosphere. The aim of the pro- gramme is to commission continuous observation systems and develop a range of different services for operational purposes. Essential climate variables (ECV) will be dealt with under climate-related serv- ices and will contribute to knowledge for instance on the carbon cycle and its relationship to carbon dioxide.

GMES is the EU’s contribution to GEOSS. GMES is therefore a programme that comprises objectives both in the implementation plan for CGOS and in an equivalent plan for GEOSS. Sweden consequent- ly also contributes in this way to the international monitoring system demanded in the climate nego- tiations.

102 8. Research and systematic observation

8. Research and systematic observation	103

9Education, training and public awareness

9.1Policy for education, training

and public awareness

In Sweden communication on climate change and on climate-related measures is an important aspect of efforts to reduce emissions with a climate impact. Swedish agencies such as the Swedish Environmen- tal Protection Agency, the Swedish Energy Agency and the Swedish Road Administration communi- cate on the issue of climate change on behalf of the Government in their areas of responsibility and have many years of experience of knowledge transfer and information as a policy instrument.

Non-governmental organisations and other informa- tion centres also contribute to knowledge building and dialogue about the problems of and solutions to cli- mate change. Climate change, its causes and its effects today are thoroughly familiar to the general public.

An information effort was conducted in 2006- 2008 with the aim of increasing knowledge of the causes and consequences of climate change, passing on the latest research findings on the topic and iden- tifying ways of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. To stimulate knowledge building locally, public ed- ucation and information initiatives relating to the problem of climate change have been a mandatory requirement in order to be awarded government in- vestment grants for local-authority climate measures.

lication of the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report and the Stern report.

The Swedish media in several cases have taken the step from merely reporting on climate events to be- coming part of the efforts to take remedial action. Several major newspapers and television channels now have climate websites which, among other things, offer guidance or tips on how individuals can reduce their climate impact.

9.3Public awareness

According to the 2008 survey on public attitudes to climate change the willingness of Swedish people to reduce their own greenhouse gas emissions has con- tinued to increase. People are increasingly prepared to move from words to action. A large majority of the Swedish population also want to see Swedish initiatives to reduce climate impact. An ambitious climate policy can therefore be assumed to have public backing.

9.2Mass media and the issue of climate change

News reporting on the issue of climate change in the media has increased steadily over the past five years. 2007 was a record year in terms of the number of articles published, prompted by the breakthrough brought about by Al Gore in public debate, the pub-

9.4Climate information centres

The Swedish Environmental Protection Agency (Swedish EPA) is the Government’s central envi- ronmental authority.The Agency’s role is to instigate and coordinate work towards strong and broadened environmental responsibility in society. The Swedish EPA is intended in particular to support the envi-

104 9. Education, training and public awareness

ronmental efforts of other actors by developing and passing on knowledge, formulating requirements and levels of aspiration and following up and evaluating. Climate is a priority area, and the Agency has grad- ually expanded the website www.naturvardsverket. se/klimat to include news reporting, facts and infor- mation on climate change, measures and research in this area. Promoting reporting on climate by the me- dia in various ways has been an important strategy in the efforts of the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency in recent years to increase awareness and knowledge of the problem of climate change and solutions to it among the public. Special electronic newsletters with the function of summarising and disseminating Swedish and international climate-re- lated news have contributed to broad media interest in climate issues.

The Swedish Energy Agency is the government agen- cy for energy issues and as such is responsible for infor- mation and advice on more efficient energy use aimed at both the general public and companies. The Agen- cy’s website www.energimyndigheten.se contains ex- tensive information on the energy use of households and what can be done to reduce it. Alongside energy- saving tips for the general public there is also special information for schools (energy knowledge for teach- ers and pupils).The results of tests on the energy con- sumption of various appliances have been published on the website since 2008.The Swedish Energy Agen- cy organises, funds and takes part in a number of ac- tivities based on the local or regional level.

The Swedish Consumer Agency is Sweden’s central administrative authority for consumer issues, with principal responsibility for implementing govern- ment consumer policy. The Agency’s remit includes having to integrate the work that follows from its re- sponsibility for environmental and sustainability is- sues and its special responsibility for efforts relating to environmental objectives into its regular activities. Notable among its climate information efforts aimed at the general public is information on the climate la- bel Svanen (The Swan). The Agency’s website www. konsumentverket.se serves as a portal for its own consumer information and that of other authorities.

The Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological In- stitute (SMHI) develops and distributes information on weather, water and climate with the aim of pro- viding knowledge and a high-quality basis for deci- sion-making for the functions of society, the busi- ness community and the general public. The website

www.smhi.se contains extensive material: general in- formation on climate change and analyses of regional and local climate impacts. It is also possible to down- load a selection of climate scenario data (maps) and study climate indicators (temperature, precipitation, extreme precipitation, sea levels).

The Swedish Road Administration is a government agency tasked with ensuring that the road transport system is of a good standard, is economically efficient and is accessible to everyone. The agency has sector responsibility for the environment, which encom- passes all environmental issues associated with the road transport system. The Swedish Road Admin- istration works to reduce climate-impacting emis- sions by working towards more efficient vehicles, an increased share of renewable fuels and reduced demand for travel and transport. The website www. vv.se contains information on the environmental im- pact of road transport and how individual motorists can lower their emissions, for example through eco- driving and by choosing fuel-efficient vehicles.

Other information centres

The Swedish Museum of Natural History in Stock- holm is a knowledge centre and meeting place for the public and experts with an interest in nature and the environment. Since 2004 it has housed a climate exhibition which is designed to provide basic knowl- edge of climate issues and about what can be done to curb climate change. The exhibition intersperses facts with experiences, and to date has been seen by around 800 000 people. A special “climate card”, a free CD, enables visitors to access a website which is shaped by the choices the visitor makes in the exhi- bition – a way for the public to build their own web- site on climate on their home computers. The con- tents of the exhibition have been devised in coop- eration between Stockholm University, the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency, the World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) and SMHI.

The two largest study associations in Sweden are pri- oritising the issue of climate. The adult education as- sociation Studieförbundet Vuxenskolan offers cours- es around the country on a number of climate-relat- ed subjects such as eco-driving, the climate impact of foods etc. A campaign was launched in 2008 to im- prove knowledge of climate change in the Nordic region and the prospects of the Nordic region being an active player in the run-up to the negotiations on a new climate agreement at COP 15 in Copenhagen in 2009 (www.arenanorden.org). The Study Promotion Asso-

9. Education, training and public awareness	105

ciation (Studiefrämjandet) offers nationwide study cir- cles with the goal of improving knowledge of the sig- nificance of the problem of climate change and what can be done to turn the trend in the right direction. Personal study materials on sustainable development form the basis for a series of study circles on everything from building solar panels to locally adapted courses on sustainable development. Cooperation takes place with several of the country’s environmental organisa- tions, including the Swedish Society for Nature Con- servation and Swedish Friends of the Earth.

Swedish non-governmental organisations play an active part in the public debate on the climate issue, by creating arenas and meeting places for discus- sion, debate and action. The Internet is an important channel for knowledge transfer and the mobilisation of involvement.

•Swedish Society for Nature Conservation (SNF)

– www.snf.se

•Keep Sweden Tidy Foundation – www.hsr.se

•Swedish Association of Green Motorists – www.gronabilister.se

•WWF – www.wwf.se

•Greenpeace – www.greenpeace.se

•Swedish Friends of the Earth – www.mjv.se

9.5Initiatives and activities

Notable international compilations of knowledge, such as the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Reports (2007), Swedish compilations of knowledge such as the Swedish Commission on Climate andVulnerabil- ity (2007)84, and the report of the Swedish Govern- ment’s Scientific Council on Climate Issues85 have dominated information initiatives taken by Swedish authorities, organisations and other knowledge cen- tres. A selection of initiatives and activities is pre- sented here according to the structure of New Delhi Work Programme.

9.5.1 Education – activities targeted at schools

Pre-schools, schools and adult education in Sweden have a clear remit to contribute to socially, economi- cally and ecologically sustainable development. The remit is formulated in national policy documents such as the Schools Act, curricula and syllabuses. The National Agency for Education is responsible for the School for Sustainable Development award (in- itiated in 2005), an initiative that has contributed to increased motivation for and interest in work on sus- tainable development in primary and lower second- ary school. In-depth teaching on the climate issue is

84http://www.sweden.gov.se/sb/d/574/a/96002.

85http://www.regeringen.se/content/1/c6/08/69/66/fd457e80.pdf.

106 9. Education, training and public awareness

common at upper-secondary level.

Several universities and colleges of higher educa- tion offer courses on the scientific basis of climate and climate-related subjects, such as energy science and forest issues. There are various networks and centres of expertise. At the University of Karlstad, for example, there is a Centre for Climate and Safety which has the objective of gathering knowledge and experience of risks due to climate change.

Several authorities of knowledge centres offer cli- mate information on the Internet targeted at school- children of various ages. The Keep Sweden Tidy Foundation assists an increasing number of Swedish schools with targets and a structure for their envi- ronmental work through the Green Flag award. The problem of climate change, energy efficiency and economical use of resources are dealt with under the overarching objective of sustainable development.

SMHI receives school groups every year to inform them about the climate issue. There is a clear trend towards increasing numbers of schoolchildren want- ing information in order to carry out special school projects.

Volunteers from Greenpeace, known as “green speakers”, give lectures in schools on request. Inter- est in lectures has increased, and considerable scope has been given to the climate issue, which is a key issue for Greenpeace.

Information campaigns targeted at schools include the following:

•The school material Energy Around the Baltic Sea establishes links between energy, the environment and climate. This material is available in Swedish, English, Estonian, Latvian, Lithuanian, Polish and Russian86.

•The EU projects Active Learning and The Rain- makers, which are targeted at school pupils and teachers, are aimed at teaching schoolchildren in the lower and middle stages of school (ages 7 to 13) to manage energy in a responsible and sustain- able way87.

•The project The Forest in School links theory and practice, with the aim of increasing knowledge of and interest in the forests and all the assets they represent, including the significance of forests for the climate88.

•The Climate Battle (Klimatkampen) is a nation- wide competition for upper-secondary students that rewards young people’s ideas and suggestions for new solutions to the climate issue. The task is to find different ways of reducing contributions to the greenhouse effect89.

86 Swedish Energy Agency.

87 Swedish Energy Agency.

88 The Swedish Forest Agency together with the Swedish Forest Industries Federation, the Federation of Swedish Farmers and WWF.

89 IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute, Swedish Society for Nature Conserva- tion and E.ON Sweden.

9.5.2 Training – seminars etc.

Training and knowledge transfer at seminars have an important role to play in climate efforts in both authorities and companies. Training on the environ- ment and climate often forms part of the work done by companies on environmental certification ac- cording to international standard (ISO and EMAS). The involvement of the business community in the climate issue is particularly evident in an increased number of seminars on climate and the environment as a driver of business development, and climate and energy experts from authorities and organisations are often among the speakers.

The Internet is often used for knowledge transfer and exchange of experience between and within authorities and organisations. An example is the Climate Adapta- tion Portal90, containing factors and guidance for adap- tation to a warmer climate. This portal is administered by SMHI. A larger number of lectures are also held at SMHI every year, and the audiences include compa- nies, politicians, schools and organisations. Demand for the lectures has increased sharply since 2006.

Several regional authorities (county administrative boards) have held series of seminars on the climate issue during the period. Training courses on how re- quirements relating to the environment and climate can be set in procurement are held by a number of parties at national, regional and local level. The Swedish Environmental Protection Agency in 2008 published a new training package,“Climate Facts” on its website, containing facts, questions and answers on the greenhouse effect and climate change91.

Two major conferences, Climate Forum and the Swedish National Energy Convention (En- ergitinget)92 on the topic of climate and energy are held every year and attract thousands of listeners.

Sectors that have increased their level of commu- nication on the consequences of climate change in- clude agriculture and the forest industry. Under an internal Climate Project, the Swedish Board of Agri- culture has held a number of lectures, seminars and workshops for employees.

Forest owners have also increasingly been provided with information on the impact of climate change on forestry, such as climate scenarios, adapted insect control and more storm-proof forestry methods. The Internet and the magazine Skogseko are important channels93.

Of note in the agricultural area is the nationwide advisory project Focus on Nutrients, with the objective of reducing the environmental impact of agriculture through information and training for farmers. Climate

90http://www.smhi.se/cmp/jsp/polopoly.jsp?d=9315&l=sv.

91www.naturvardsverket.se/kunskap.

92http://www.sverigesenergiting.se/.

93http://www.svo.se/episerver4/templates/SNormalPage.aspx?id=11310.

has been a focal area since the autumn of 2008, and climate training is offered to the advisors in Focus on Nutrients. The target is firstly for the climate issue to be fully integrated into advice by 2010, and sec- ondly for farmers to be offered special climate advice. In addition, information is provided on new findings regarding how future climate change will affect the technical systems of the farmed landscape, such as subsoil drainage, bunding and irrigation systems.

9.5.3Public awareness – campaigns and activitiestargeted at the public

The number of public activities with a climate focus has increased steadily since 2005. Several authorities have purposefully expanded information on the Web for households concerning climate change and what can be done.There is a noticeable trend towards con- sumption being increasingly linked to the problem of climate change. There is, for example, a notice- ably increased quantity of books, Internet sites and information materials offering advice and guides on how personal carbon footprints can be reduced. The climate impact of foods has come into sharp focus over the period.

Of note in the local climate investment pro- grammes that have been carried out at municipal level are information activities such as campaigns to increase travel by public transport, exhibitions, in- formation to owners of houses on the environmental gains in replacing heating systems etc.

Causes/impacts/adaptation

Substantial efforts were made in 2007 to ensure that the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment was available to broad target groups94. The reports from the IPCC’s three working groups, as well as the Summary for policy- makers, were translated into Swedish and the con- clusions were highlighted at three full-day seminars open to the public.

Greenpeace’s Palm Oil Campaign (2007) was aimed at informing the public about the harmful impact of palm oil on the rainforest in Indonesia and its consequences for the climate.

Transport

The Swedish Vehicle Inspection has sent out some 2.4 million environmental booklets since 2006 to- gether with notice of the annual mandatory vehicle inspection. In this booklet, car owners can read about how the adverse impact of cars on the environment

94 Swedish Environmental Protection Agency with several cooperating partners.

9. Education, training and public awareness	107

can be reduced, for example through changes in driving style and better car maintenance.

The Swedish Consumer Agency every year pro- duces the brochure Nybilsguiden (New Car Guide), which contains tips on the fuel consumption and carbon dioxide emissions of new cars and tips on how the fuel consumption and other environmen- tal impact of cars can be reduced. There are also cli- mate messages in the information distributed by the Swedish Road Administration to private motorists on the importance of correct tyre pressure and on reduced speed for improved road safety.

The Swedish Association of Green Motorists pushes the development of environmentally sound road transport for instance by examining proportions of green cars in local authorities. This organisation also assists with advice and support in the purchasing of green cars, publishes an annual list of the greenest cars and in various ways highlights climate initiatives in the road transport sector.

The Swedish Environmental Protection Agency, the Swedish Road Administration and the Swedish Consumer Agency annually present statistics on the climate impact of new cars. Statistics show the ve- hicle population broken down by county and mu- nicipality and broken down by owner – legal entities and physical persons and men and women.They also contain information on what types of cars are bought and present an aggregate picture of the Swedish ve- hicle population and how it is changing over time.

Energy use

The multi-year campaign Become Energy-Smart was initiated in 2006 and provides the public with ad- vice on how energy use in the home can be reduced. The campaign includes the exhibition “The Energy- Smart House”, which visits several locations every year. The information material contains an energy calculator which calculates the costs of investments that reduce energy needs in houses. Information is also given on the impact of the investment on the environment in terms of greenhouse gas emissions.

The municipal energy and climate advisers are an important channel to the public. Households and companies can obtain advice and support free of charge here on heating, energy costs, energy efficien- cy, transport, climate, government grants in the area of energy and much else besides. The advisory activ- ity is aimed at the public, small and medium-sized enterprises and organisations. It is offered in the ma- jority of Swedish municipalities and is financially supported by central government through the Swed-

ish Energy Agency. The municipalities’ climate and energy advisory service is supported by the regional energy offices, which provide training and coordinate information activities.

Swedish variants of international campaigns such as Power Switch and Coal Train occurred during the period, with the aim of instigating a switch to sus- tainable energy supply.

Consumption/climate labelling

The Internet-based tool the Envirometer (Swedish Consumer Agency) identifies a person’s environ- mental impact in an easy-to-understand way. It ena- bles an estimate to be made of what a change in be- haviour means for energy use.

Information on food that has a lower climate impact and simple ways of saving electricity in the kitchen is distributed by a number of actors. Work on the development of a climate-labelling scheme for foods is under way as a cooperative venture between central government and various industry bodies.

The Swedish Environmental Management Council offers a method for the climate declaration of prod- ucts under the international EPD system (www.kli- matdeklaration.se95). The climate declaration takes an overall view of the climate impact of products and can be used by manufacturing companies, but also by procurement officers and consumers wishing make climate-sound purchases.

The National Food Administration endeavours to increase consumers’ knowledge of what the cli- mate and environmental impact of food production and consumption (“the food chain”) looks like. The agency works on the development of dietary advice to help people make “environment and climate smart” food choices. Initiatives have been taken at the same time for climate-labelled foods.

9.5.4Public participation and public access to information – strategies for and examples of opportunities for public participation

There are good opportunities in Sweden to ask ques- tions and express views on an area of knowledge or political proposal through consultation procedures and open meetings/hearings and seminars. Special initiatives are also taken to increase public partici- pation in climate work. The activities range from Internet-based question boxes to open consultation. Non-governmental organisations often establish In- ternet-based forums or appeals which the public are encouraged to think about.

95 For further information on international EPD see: www.environdec.com.

108 9. Education, training and public awareness

Authorities and organisations at national level also regularly answer verbal and written questions from the public.

9.5.5International cooperation – efforts to pass on Swedish results abroad

Special measures have been taken to pass on expe- rience gained in Swedish climate strategy. Presenta- tions on the Swedish climate campaign have been made in Iceland, with participants from all the Nor- dic countries, but also in New Zealand. In Hunga- ry, Eastern European countries were informed about the newsletter Global News on Climate Action.

There has been great interest from foreign media in Swedish efforts relating to information as a policy in- strument. Examples of countries that have shown in- terest are the United States,Canada,Vietnam,Poland, China, Germany, Ireland, the United Kingdom and Lithuania. This work has also been the subject of side-events at the national climate negotiations. On Bali in 2007 (COP 13) a joint side-event was held with France and the United Kingdom to report on the strategic work involving measurements of public attitudes to and knowledge of the climate issue and work on special newsletters. The issue was also illus- trated at a side-event in Poznan in 2008 (COP 14).

SMHI, in cooperation with the consultancy SWECO and the Stockholm Environment Institute,has conduct- ed information campaigns since 2007 under the interna- tional training programme Climate Change – Mitigation and Adaptation. The training is funded by Sida (Swed- ish International Development Cooperation Agency), with the overarching aim of increasing knowledge of the causes and effects of climate change in developing countries.The target group is individuals in leading po- sitions in administration, national or local, non-govern- mental organisations, universities or companies.

Sida’s Civil Society Centre has created a platform on which Swedish and international NGOs can in- teract and take part in the global dialogue on climate and justice issues.

The Swedish Forest Agency in 2007 initiated co- operation with forest authorities in US states in the mid-west. This cooperation covers activities focused on exchange of experience and knowledge concern- ing opportunities and problems regarding the role of the forests in work on climate change. Since 2008 Sweden has also been leading a development process on bioenergy and climate through the Swedish Forest Agency in the pan-European cooperation body on forest policy development MCPFE (Ministerial Con- ference on the Protection of Forests in Europe).

To contribute to improved effectiveness of climate information around the world and implementation of the New Delhi Work Programme, Sweden held an international workshop in 2009 in cooperation with the UNFCCC secretariat. The purpose was to con- tribute to knowledge building on climate informa- tion by passing on experience of successful climate information initiatives in Europe. All the examples of best practice contributed by the countries will be collated in an on-line publication on the UNFCCC website Climate Change Information Network (CC:iNet).

9.5.6Networking – networks that are used to pass on information and communicate the climate issue – in Sweden and abroad

A number of networks with a differing orientation focus on the climate issue.

The Network for Climate and Vulnerability is a network of national authorities aimed at provid- ing regional and local authorities with information linked to public planning and adaptation to a warmer climate. The Network communicates through the Internet-based Climate Adaptation Portal.

Networking in programmes or projects is a common form of cooperation at local level. An ex- ample is Sustainable Municipality – a programme in which 63 municipalities have taken part since the summer of 2008. Several professional groups are in- volved, such as public planning officers and energy officers. The municipalities are putting together a strategy on energy and climate.

The network Climate-Neutral Goods Transport is a cooperative project between the Centre for Environment and Sustainability at Chalmers and Gothenburg University, Preem AB, Schenker AB, Volvo Trucks and the Swedish Road Administration. Its work is aimed at reducing carbon dioxide emis- sions, with the target of halving the climate impact of goods transport by road by 2020.

For food producers there is the network Food and Climate, which is aimed at providing greater knowl- edge and understanding of the climate impact of producers and strengthening their market positions. The participants meet regularly and benefit from each other’s experiences (SIK – Swedish Institute for Food and Biotechnology).

BLICC Sverige (Business Leaders Initiative on Cli- mate Change) forms part of the international cli- mate network Respect BLICC. BLICC Sweden con- tains several large Swedish companies which are en- deavouring to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions.

9. Education, training and public awareness	109

Annexes

Annex 1:

Acronyms and abbreviations

ACEA	European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association	ECHAM	Global climate model developed from the atmos-
AES	Allmänna energisystemstudier (General Energy		pheric model ECMWF in Hamburg, at the Max-
AES	Allmänna energisystemstudier (General Energy		Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Germany
	System Studies)		Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Germany
	System Studies)

AfDB	African Development Bank
AMBER:	Assessment and Modelling Baltic Ecosystem
	Response; Bonus Era-Net
AOGCM	Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model
APCF	Asia Pacific Carbon Fund
AR4/WGI	Assessment Report 4/Working Group 1
Arpège	Action de Recherche Petite Echelle Grande
	Echelle, climate model at METEO France, France
AUC	African Union Commission
BALTEX	Baltic Sea Experiment
BASREC	Baltic Sea Region Energy Cooperation
BCM	Bergen Climate Model, climate model at Nansen
	Environmental Remote Sensing Centre, Norway
GDP	Gross Domestic Product
BONUS:	Baltic Organisations Network for Funding Science
C	Celsius
CCSM3	Community Climate System Model, version 3.0,
	developed at NCAR, USA
CDM	Clean Development Mechanism
CES	Climate and Energy Systems (funded by Nordic
	Energy Research)
CFC	Chlorofluorocarbons
CIRCLE	Climate Impact Research Coordination for a Larger
	Europe.
CLARIS LPB	A Europe-South America Network for Climate
	Change Assessment and Impact Studies La Plata
	Basin
CO2-eq:	Carbon dioxide equivalent
CNRM	Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques at
	METEO France, France
CPA:	Climate Proof Areas

ECMWF	European Centre for Medium Range Weather
	Forecasts

ECOSUPPORT Advanced tool for scenarios of the Baltic ECOsystem

EIA	Environment Impact Assessment
EMAS	Eco-Management and Audit Scheme
ENSEMBLES	Collective expertise of 66 institutes to produce a
	reliable quantitative risk assessment of long-term
	climate change and its impacts.
ERA	European Research Area
ERA-NET	European research cooperation between regional
	and national funders
ERA-NET-	Climate Impact research Cooperation within a
CIRCLE	larger Europe
EU	European Union
EU ETS	The EU emissions trading scheme
EU/FP6	The EU’s sixth framework programme for research
	and development
EU/FP7	The EU’s seventh framework programme for
	researchand development
EUMETSAT	European organisation for satellite cooperation in
	meteorology
FAME	Fatty acid methyl esters
FORMAS	Swedish Research Council for Environment,
	AgriculturalSciences and Spatial Planning
UN	United Nations
FSC	Forest Stewardship Council.
GCCA	Global Climate Change Alliance
GCM	General Circulation Model
GEF	Global Environment Facility
GEO	Group on Earth Observations

110	Annex 1

GMES	Global Monitoring for the Environment and
	Security
Geoland2	Main programme for terrestrial applications in
	GMES
HadCM3	Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3
HadAM3H/	Linked atmosphere-ocean model at Hadley Centre
HadCM3
HCFC	Hydrochloroflurocarbons
HFC	Incompletely halogenated fluorocarbons
IBRD	International Bank for Reconstruction and
	Development
ICAO	International Civil Aviation Organisation
IDA	International Development Association
IFC	International Financial Corporation
IIED	International Institute for Environment and
	Development
IMO	International Maritime Organisation
INFLOW	Holocene saline water inflow changes into the Bal-
	tic Sea, ecosystem responses and future scenarios,
	BONUS Era-Net.
IPCC	Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
ISO	International Standards Organisation
IVL	IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute
JI	Joint Implementation
KTH	Royal Institute of Technology
kWh	KiloWatt-hour
LDCF	Least Developed Countries Fund
LUCSUS	Lund University Centre for Sustainability Studies
LULUCF	Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry
MDG	Millennium Development Goals
MIGA	Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency
Mistra	Foundation for Strategic Environmental Research
MPI-Met	Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie in Hamburg,
	Germany
MSEK	Million Swedish kronor
MTR	Mid Term Review
MUSD	Million US dollars
MWh	MegaWatt-hour
NC	National Communication
NCAR	National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA
NERSC	Nansen Environmental Remote Sensing Centre,
	Norway
NGOs	Non-Governmental Organisations
PCF	Prototype Carbon Fund
PEFC	Promoting Sustainable Forest Management
PFC	Perfluorocarbons
PFE	Programme for energy efficiency in energy-
	intensiveindustry

PPP	Purchasing Power Parity
RCA	The Rossby Centre’s regional climate model
RCA3/	The Rossby Centre’s regional climate model RCA3,
ECHAM4	with boundary conditions from the global climate
	model ECHAM4
RCAO-	The Rossby Centre’s regional linked atmosphere-
ECHAM4	ocean model with boundary conditions from the
	global climate model ECHAM4
RET	Renewable Energy Technologies
SCB	Statistics Sweden
SCCF	Special Climate Change Fund
SEA	Strategic Environmental Assessment
SEI	Stockholm Environment Institute
SENSA	Swedish Environmental Secretariat for Asia
SF6	Sulphur hexafluoride
Sida	Swedish International Development Cooperation
	Agency
SIDS	Small Island Developing States
SIKA	Swedish Institute for Transport and Communica-
	tions Analysis
SLU	Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
SMHI	Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute
SWECIA	Swedish research programme on Climate, Impacts
	and Adaptation
TGF	Testing Ground Facility
TPES	Total primary energy supply
TWh	TeraWatt-hour
UNECA	United Nations Economic Commission for Africa
UNEP	United Nations Environment Programme
UNFCCC	UN Framework Convention on Climate Change
VINNOVA	Swedish Agency for Innovation Systems
VR	Swedish Research Council
WCRP	World Climate Research Programme
WMO	World Meteorological Organisation
WWF	World Wide Fund for Nature

Annex 1	111

Annex 2:

Summary emissions tables

112	Annex 2

SUMMARY TABLE FOR CO2 EQUIVALENT EMISSIONS									Inventory 1990
								Submission 2009 v1.1
									SWEDEN
GREENHOUSE GAS SOURCE AND			CO2 (1)	CH4	N2O	HFCs	PFCs	SF6	Total
SINK CATEGORIES			CO2 equivalent (Gg )
Total (Net Emissions) (1)			24 122,70	6 710,69	8 559,41	3,85	376,82	107,49	39 880,94
1.	Energy		51 570,17	421,78	1 321,01				53 312,96
A. Fuel Combustion (Sectoral Approach)			50 469,88	416,90	1 304,31				52 191,08
1.		Energy Industries	9 830,65	22,15	328,53				10 181,32
2.		Manufacturing Industries and Construction	11 150,05	46,08	529,07				11 725,20
3.		Transport	18 332,78	104,70	144,61				18 582,09
4.		Other Sectors	10 311,30	243,00	276,50				10 830,80
5.		Other	845,11	0,96	25,60				871,67
B. Fugitive Emissions from Fuels			1 100,29	4,88	16,70				1 121,87
1.		Solid Fuels	789,03	0,07	2,20				791,31
2.		Oil and Natural Gas	311,26	4,81	14,50				330,56
2.		Industrial Processes	4 400,73	5,75	897,85	3,85	376,82	107,49	5 792,48
A. Mineral Products			1 919,29	NA	NA				1 919,29
B. Chemical Industry			68,80	0,53	831,61	NA	NA	NA	900,94
C. Metal Production			2 412,64	0,11	NA	NA	376,82	23,90	2 813,47
D. Other Production			NE	5,11	66,24				71,35
E. Production of Halocarbons and SF6						NO	NO	NO	NO
F. Consumption of Halocarbons and SF6						3,85	NA,NE,NO	83,59	87,43
G. Other			NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO
3. Solvent and Other Product Use			242,27		90,22				332,49
4.		Agriculture		3 407,22	5 975,70				9 382,92
A. Enteric Fermentation				3 058,06					3 058,06
B. Manure Management				349,16	728,02				1 077,17
C. Rice Cultivation				NO					NO
D. Agricultural Soils				NO	5 247,68				5 247,68
E. Prescribed Burning of Savannas				NO	NO				NO
F. Field Burning of Agricultural Residues				NO	NO				NO
G. Other				NO	NO				NO
5. Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry(1)			-32 134,32	1,72	79,22				-32 053,37
A. Forest Land			-35 471,29	1,50	57,50				-35 412,29
B. Cropland			4 047,99	IE,NE	21,70				4 069,69
C. Grassland			-645,57	0,22	0,02				-645,32
D. Wetlands			39,60	IE,NE,NO	IE,NE,NO				39,60
E. Settlements			-105,05	IE,NE	IE,NE				-105,05
F. Other Land			IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE				IE,NE
G. Other			NA	NA	NA				NA
6. Waste			43,85	2 874,22	195,40				3 113,48
A. Solid Waste Disposal on Land			NE,NO	2 874,22					2 874,22
B. Waste-water Handling				IE,NE,NO	195,40				195,40
C. Waste Incineration			43,85	NE	NE				43,85
D. Other			NA	NA	NA				NA
7.		Other (as specified in Summary 1.A)	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO
Memo Items:
International Bunkers			3 563,03	0,51	53,24				3 616,78
Aviation			1 335,16	0,20	16,67				1 352,03
Marine			2 227,87	0,31	36,57				2 264,75
Multilateral Operations			0,05	0,00	0,00				0,05
CO2 Emissions from Biomass			11 436,68						11 436,68
				Total CO2 Equivalent Emissions without Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry					71 934,32
				Total CO2 Equivalent Emissions with Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry					39 880,94
(1 )		For CO2 from Land Use, Land-use Change and Forestry, removals are always negative (-) and for emissions positive (+).

Annex 2	113

SUMMARY TABLE FOR CO2 EQUIVALENT EMISSIONS								Inventory 1991
							Submission 2009 v1.1
								SWEDEN
GREENHOUSE GAS SOURCE AND		CO2 (1)	CH4	N2O	HFCs	PFCs	SF6	Total
SINK CATEGORIES		CO2 equivalent (Gg )
Total (Net Emissions) (1)		23 523,00	6 697,36	8 446,00	7,94	380,25	108,51	39 163,05
1.	Energy	52 407,33	437,07	1 350,89				54 195,29
A. Fuel Combustion (Sectoral Approach)		51 212,79	432,22	1 335,80				52 980,81
1.	Energy Industries	11 005,80	25,78	355,49				11 387,06
2.	Manufacturing Industries and Construction	11 172,48	45,31	543,69				11 761,48
3.	Transport	17 874,06	108,06	131,68				18 113,80
4.	Other Sectors	10 091,09	251,96	273,59				10 616,64
5.	Other	1 069,36	1,11	31,35				1 101,83
B. Fugitive Emissions from Fuels		1 194,54	4,85	15,09				1 214,48
1.	Solid Fuels	938,27	0,09	2,55				940,91
2.	Oil and Natural Gas	256,27	4,76	12,54				273,57
2.	Industrial Processes	4 239,34	6,08	945,35	7,94	380,25	108,51	5 687,47
A. Mineral Products		1 739,06	NA	NA				1 739,06
B. Chemical Industry		69,55	0,53	874,55	NA	NA	NA	944,63
C. Metal Production		2 430,73	0,11	NA,NO	NA,NO	379,44	23,90	2 834,18
D. Other Production		NE	5,44	70,80				76,24
E. Production of Halocarbons and SF6					NO	NO	NO	NO
F. Consumption of Halocarbons and SF6					7,94	0,81	84,61	93,35
G. Other		NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO
3.	Solvent and Other Product Use	231,12		89,06				320,18
4.	Agriculture		3 334,58	5 811,32				9 145,91
A. Enteric Fermentation			2 993,01					2 993,01
B. Manure Management			341,57	707,89				1 049,46
C. Rice Cultivation			NO					NO
D. Agricultural Soils			NO	5 103,44				5 103,44
E. Prescribed Burning of Savannas			NO	NO				NO
F. Field Burning of Agricultural Residues			NO	NO				NO
G. Other			NO	NO				NO
5.	Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry(1)	-33 407,00	1,61	60,92				-33 344,47
A. Forest Land		-36 662,92	1,38	33,62				-36 627,92
B. Cropland		3 832,70	IE,NE	27,28				3 859,98
C. Grassland		-493,84	0,22	0,02				-493,59
D. Wetlands		36,59	IE,NE,NO	IE,NE,NO				36,59
E. Settlements		-119,53	IE,NE	IE,NE				-119,53
F. Other Land		IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE				IE,NE
G. Other		NA	NA	NA				NA
6.	Waste	52,20	2 918,01	188,46				3 158,67
A. Solid Waste Disposal on Land		NE,NO	2 918,01					2 918,01
B. Waste-water Handling			IE,NE,NO	188,46				188,46
C. Waste Incineration		52,20	NE	NE				52,20
D. Other		NA	NA	NA				NA
7.	Other (as specified in Summary 1.A)	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO
Memo Items:
International Bunkers		3 727,88	0,53	57,13				3 785,55
Aviation		1 088,16	0,16	14,25				1 102,56
Marine		2 639,73	0,37	42,88				2 682,98
Multilateral Operations		0,05	0,00	0,00				0,05
CO2 Emissions from Biomass		12 152,72						12 152,72
			Total CO2 Equivalent Emissions without Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry					72 507,52
			Total CO2 Equivalent Emissions with Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry					39 163,05
(1 )	For CO2 from Land Use, Land-use Change and Forestry, removals are always negative (-) and for emissions positive (+).

114	Annex 2

SUMMARY TABLE FOR CO2 EQUIVALENT EMISSIONS								Inventory 1992
							Submission 2009 v1.1
								SWEDEN
GREENHOUSE GAS SOURCE AND		CO2 (1)	CH4	N2O	HFCs	PFCs	SF6	Total
SINK CATEGORIES		CO2 equivalent (Gg )
Total (Net Emissions) (1)		26 013,51	6 783,62	8 340,05	10,12	252,42	108,40	41 508,11
1.	Energy	52 351,26	438,45	1 354,91				54 144,62
A. Fuel Combustion (Sectoral Approach)		51 305,50	433,54	1 338,46				53 077,50
1.	Energy Industries	11 614,09	22,71	364,28				12 001,08
2.	Manufacturing Industries and Construction	10 205,40	52,43	523,73				10 781,55
3.	Transport	18 991,60	101,27	156,21				19 249,09
4.	Other Sectors	9 373,01	256,06	261,40				9 890,47
5.	Other	1 121,39	1,07	32,85				1 155,31
B. Fugitive Emissions from Fuels		1 045,76	4,91	16,44				1 067,12
1.	Solid Fuels	749,89	0,07	2,19				752,15
2.	Oil and Natural Gas	295,87	4,84	14,25				314,96
2.	Industrial Processes	4 093,91	6,09	912,55	10,12	252,42	108,40	5 383,49
A. Mineral Products		1 649,76	NA	NA				1 649,76
B. Chemical Industry		53,26	0,56	842,04	NA	NA	NA	895,86
C. Metal Production		2 390,89	0,11	NA,NO	NA,NO	251,61	23,90	2 666,52
D. Other Production		NE	5,42	70,51				75,93
E. Production of Halocarbons and SF6					NO	NO	NO	NO
F. Consumption of Halocarbons and SF6					10,12	0,81	84,50	95,42
G. Other		NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO
3.	Solvent and Other Product Use	218,72		107,57				326,29
4.	Agriculture		3 418,58	5 731,25				9 149,83
A. Enteric Fermentation			3 065,55					3 065,55
B. Manure Management			353,03	724,09				1 077,12
C. Rice Cultivation			NO					NO
D. Agricultural Soils			NO	5 007,16				5 007,16
E. Prescribed Burning of Savannas			NO	NO				NO
F. Field Burning of Agricultural Residues			NO	NO				NO
G. Other			NO	NO				NO
5.	Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry(1)	-30 708,70	1,62	52,24				-30 654,84
A. Forest Land		-34 136,25	1,40	23,70				-34 111,15
B. Cropland		3 638,94	IE,NE	28,52				3 667,46
C. Grassland		-441,66	0,22	0,02				-441,42
D. Wetlands		39,60	IE,NE,NO	IE,NE,NO				39,60
E. Settlements		190,67	IE,NE	IE,NE				190,67
F. Other Land		IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE				IE,NE
G. Other		NA	NA	NA				NA
6.	Waste	58,33	2 918,88	181,52				3 158,73
A. Solid Waste Disposal on Land		NE,NO	2 918,88					2 918,88
B. Waste-water Handling			IE,NE,NO	181,52				181,52
C. Waste Incineration		58,33	NE	NE				58,33
D. Other		NA	NA	NA				NA
7.	Other (as specified in Summary 1.A)	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO
Memo Items:
International Bunkers		3 908,85	0,55	61,96				3 971,37
Aviation		899,65	0,12	12,97				912,74
Marine		3 009,20	0,43	49,00				3 058,62
Multilateral Operations		0,05	0,00	0,00				0,05
CO2 Emissions from Biomass		13 066,89						13 066,89
			Total CO2 Equivalent Emissions without Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry					72 162,95
(1 )			Total CO2 Equivalent Emissions with Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry					41 508,11
(1 )	For CO2 from Land Use, Land-use Change and Forestry, removals are always negative (-) and for emissions positive (+).

Annex 2	115

SUMMARY TABLE FOR CO2 EQUIVALENT EMISSIONS								Inventory 1993
							Submission 2009 v1.1
								SWEDEN
GREENHOUSE GAS SOURCE AND		CO2 (1)	CH4	N2O	HFCs	PFCs	SF6	Total
SINK CATEGORIES		CO2 equivalent (Gg )
Total (Net Emissions) (1)		27 749,38	6 831,20	8 466,64	29,66	290,97	96,66	43 464,51
1.	Energy	51 807,48	439,58	1 395,87				53 642,93
A. Fuel Combustion (Sectoral Approach)		50 772,90	434,15	1 378,22				52 585,27
1.	Energy Industries	11 464,38	29,33	358,00				11 851,71
2.	Manufacturing Industries and Construction	10 979,89	52,40	556,74				11 589,02
3.	Transport	18 113,98	89,81	179,06				18 382,85
4.	Other Sectors	9 333,52	261,80	261,55				9 856,88
5.	Other	881,13	0,81	22,87				904,81
B. Fugitive Emissions from Fuels		1 034,58	5,43	17,65				1 057,66
1.	Solid Fuels	718,01	0,07	2,07				720,15
2.	Oil and Natural Gas	316,57	5,36	15,58				337,51
2.	Industrial Processes	4 140,12	6,19	891,00	29,66	290,97	96,66	5 454,60
A. Mineral Products		1 670,60	NA	NA				1 670,60
B. Chemical Industry		54,76	0,51	818,50	NA	NA	NA	873,77
C. Metal Production		2 414,76	0,11	NA,NO	NA,NO	288,41	23,90	2 727,18
D. Other Production		NE	5,57	72,50				78,07
E. Production of Halocarbons and SF6					NO	NO	NO	NO
F. Consumption of Halocarbons and SF6					29,66	2,56	72,76	104,97
G. Other		NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO
3.	Solvent and Other Product Use	207,88		107,26				315,14
4.	Agriculture		3 563,14	5 835,25				9 398,39
A. Enteric Fermentation			3 160,20					3 160,20
B. Manure Management			402,94	659,65				1 062,60
C. Rice Cultivation			NO					NO
D. Agricultural Soils			NO	5 175,60				5 175,60
E. Prescribed Burning of Savannas			NO	NO				NO
F. Field Burning of Agricultural Residues			NO	NO				NO
G. Other			NO	NO				NO
5.	Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry(1)	-28 454,11	1,67	55,66				-28 396,78
A. Forest Land		-31 844,24	1,45	20,92				-31 821,87
B. Cropland		3 851,43	IE,NE	34,72				3 886,15
C. Grassland		-477,32	0,22	0,02				-477,08
D. Wetlands		38,39	IE,NE,NO	IE,NE,NO				38,39
E. Settlements		-22,37	IE,NE	IE,NE				-22,37
F. Other Land		IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE				IE,NE
G. Other		NA	NA	NA				NA
6.	Waste	48,02	2 820,61	181,60				3 050,22
A. Solid Waste Disposal on Land		NE,NO	2 820,61					2 820,61
B. Waste-water Handling			IE,NE,NO	181,60				181,60
C. Waste Incineration		48,02	NE	NE				48,02
D. Other		NA	NA	NA				NA
7.	Other (as specified in Summary 1.A)	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO
Memo Items:
International Bunkers		4 252,34	0,59	65,12				4 318,04
Aviation		1 229,95	0,16	15,99				1 246,10
Marine		3 022,39	0,43	49,13				3 071,94
Multilateral Operations		0,32	0,00	0,00				0,32
CO2 Emissions from Biomass		14 206,56						14 206,56
			Total CO2 Equivalent Emissions without Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry					71 861,28
(1 )			Total CO2 Equivalent Emissions with Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry					43 464,51
(1 )	For CO2 from Land Use, Land-use Change and Forestry, removals are always negative (-) and for emissions positive (+).

116	Annex 2

SUMMARY TABLE FOR CO2 EQUIVALENT EMISSIONS								Inventory 1994
							Submission 2009 v1.1
								SWEDEN
GREENHOUSE GAS SOURCE AND		CO2 (1)	CH4	N2O	HFCs	PFCs	SF6	Total
SINK CATEGORIES		CO2 equivalent (Gg )
Total (Net Emissions) (1)		33 590,09	6 753,92	8 527,45	72,73	311,73	100,20	49 356,12
1.	Energy	54 221,64	444,39	1 424,51				56 090,54
A. Fuel Combustion (Sectoral Approach)		52 866,07	438,77	1 408,57				54 713,41
1.	Energy Industries	11 960,53	34,46	374,55				12 369,53
2.	Manufacturing Industries and Construction	12 033,65	58,55	591,88				12 684,08
3.	Transport	18 739,16	92,49	166,81				18 998,46
4.	Other Sectors	9 357,19	252,57	257,16				9 866,92
5.	Other	775,54	0,71	18,17				794,41
B. Fugitive Emissions from Fuels		1 355,58	5,62	15,94				1 377,13
1.	Solid Fuels	1 094,70	0,10	2,98				1 097,78
2.	Oil and Natural Gas	260,87	5,52	12,97				279,35
2.	Industrial Processes	4 397,56	6,24	863,66	72,73	311,73	100,20	5 752,12
A. Mineral Products		1 755,66	NA	NA				1 755,66
B. Chemical Industry		57,14	0,60	791,81	NA	NA	NA	849,55
C. Metal Production		2 584,76	0,12	NA,NO	NA,NO	308,05	26,29	2 919,22
D. Other Production		NE	5,53	71,85				77,38
E. Production of Halocarbons and SF6					NO	NO	NO	NO
F. Consumption of Halocarbons and SF6					72,73	3,68	73,91	150,32
G. Other		NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO
3.	Solvent and Other Product Use	197,12		95,79				292,91
4.	Agriculture		3 597,72	5 904,92				9 502,64
A. Enteric Fermentation			3 191,71					3 191,71
B. Manure Management			406,01	669,34				1 075,35
C. Rice Cultivation			NO					NO
D. Agricultural Soils			NO	5 235,58				5 235,58
E. Prescribed Burning of Savannas			NO	NO				NO
F. Field Burning of Agricultural Residues			NO	NO				NO
G. Other			NO	NO				NO
5.	Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry(1)	-25 275,31	1,60	56,89				-25 216,81
A. Forest Land		-28 258,05	1,38	18,43				-28 238,24
B. Cropland		3 605,74	IE,NE	38,44				3 644,18
C. Grassland		-576,61	0,22	0,02				-576,37
D. Wetlands		41,98	IE,NE,NO	IE,NE,NO				41,98
E. Settlements		-88,37	IE,NE	IE,NE				-88,37
F. Other Land		IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE				IE,NE
G. Other		NA	NA	NA				NA
6.	Waste	49,08	2 703,96	181,68				2 934,72
A. Solid Waste Disposal on Land		NE,NO	2 703,96					2 703,96
B. Waste-water Handling			IE,NE,NO	181,68				181,68
C. Waste Incineration		49,08	NE	NE				49,08
D. Other		NA	NA	NA				NA
7.	Other (as specified in Summary 1.A)	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO
Memo Items:
International Bunkers		4 910,50	0,68	74,91				4 986,10
Aviation		1 350,69	0,17	17,20				1 368,07
Marine		3 559,81	0,51	57,71				3 618,03
Multilateral Operations		0,32	0,00	0,00				0,32
CO2 Emissions from Biomass		15 698,09						15 698,09
			Total CO2 Equivalent Emissions without Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry					74 572,93
(1 )			Total CO2 Equivalent Emissions with Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry					49 356,12
(1 )	For CO2 from Land Use, Land-use Change and Forestry, removals are always negative (-) and for emissions positive (+).

Annex 2	117

SUMMARY TABLE FOR CO2 EQUIVALENT EMISSIONS								Inventory 1995
							Submission 2009 v1.1
								SWEDEN
GREENHOUSE GAS SOURCE AND		CO2 (1)	CH4	N2O	HFCs	PFCs	SF6	Total
SINK CATEGORIES		CO2 equivalent (Gg )
Total (Net Emissions) (1)		32 469,98	6 667,14	8 397,66	127,13	343,43	126,68	48 132,02
1.	Energy	53 261,29	451,39	1 436,42				55 149,10
A. Fuel Combustion (Sectoral Approach)		51 849,05	445,50	1 418,51				53 713,07
1.	Energy Industries	11 061,07	37,90	350,33				11 449,31
2.	Manufacturing Industries and Construction	12 492,34	57,01	609,88				13 159,23
3.	Transport	18 636,11	85,47	188,75				18 910,34
4.	Other Sectors	8 955,25	264,35	253,50				9 473,10
5.	Other	704,27	0,76	16,05				721,09
B. Fugitive Emissions from Fuels		1 412,23	5,89	17,91				1 436,04
1.	Solid Fuels	1 110,37	0,10	2,97				1 113,44
2.	Oil and Natural Gas	301,87	5,79	14,94				322,60
2.	Industrial Processes	4 504,30	6,31	798,76	127,13	343,43	126,68	5 906,61
A. Mineral Products		1 967,53	NA	NA				1 967,53
B. Chemical Industry		57,77	0,63	726,46	NA	NA	NA	784,86
C. Metal Production		2 479,00	0,11	NA,NO	NA,NO	334,65	26,29	2 840,05
D. Other Production		NE	5,57	72,31				77,87
E. Production of Halocarbons and SF6					NO	NO	NO	NO
F. Consumption of Halocarbons and SF6					127,13	8,78	100,39	236,30
G. Other		NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO
3.	Solvent and Other Product Use	184,86		123,69				308,55
4.	Agriculture		3 510,92	5 789,13				9 300,06
A. Enteric Fermentation			3 094,98					3 094,98
B. Manure Management			415,95	635,59				1 051,53
C. Rice Cultivation			NO					NO
D. Agricultural Soils			NO	5 153,55				5 153,55
E. Prescribed Burning of Savannas			NO	NO				NO
F. Field Burning of Agricultural Residues			NO	NO				NO
G. Other			NO	NO				NO
5.	Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry(1)	-25 523,21	1,61	63,71				-25 457,89
A. Forest Land		-28 550,73	1,39	21,53				-28 527,81
B. Cropland		3 547,22	IE,NE	42,16				3 589,38
C. Grassland		-552,15	0,22	0,02				-551,91
D. Wetlands		46,20	IE,NE,NO	IE,NE,NO				46,20
E. Settlements		-13,75	IE,NE	IE,NE				-13,75
F. Other Land		IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE				IE,NE
G. Other		NA	NA	NA				NA
6.	Waste	42,74	2 696,91	185,94				2 925,59
A. Solid Waste Disposal on Land		NE,NO	2 696,91					2 696,91
B. Waste-water Handling			IE,NE,NO	185,94				185,94
C. Waste Incineration		42,74	NE	NE				42,74
D. Other		NA	NA	NA				NA
7.	Other (as specified in Summary 1.A)	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO
Memo Items:
International Bunkers		4 937,53	0,76	74,80				5 013,09
Aviation		1 437,04	0,26	18,21				1 455,52
Marine		3 500,48	0,50	56,58				3 557,57
Multilateral Operations		0,32	0,00	0,00				0,32
CO2 Emissions from Biomass		16 495,50						16 495,50
			Total CO2 Equivalent Emissions without Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry					73 589,91
(1 )			Total CO2 Equivalent Emissions with Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry					48 132,02
(1 )	For CO2 from Land Use, Land-use Change and Forestry, removals are always negative (-) and for emissions positive (+).

118	Annex 2

SUMMARY TABLE FOR CO2 EQUIVALENT EMISSIONS								Inventory 1996
							Submission 2009 v1.1
								SWEDEN
GREENHOUSE GAS SOURCE AND		CO2 (1)	CH4	N2O	HFCs	PFCs	SF6	Total
SINK CATEGORIES		CO2 equivalent (Gg )
Total (Net Emissions) (1)		31 592,34	6 631,79	8 523,86	205,35	302,91	108,40	47 364,66
1.	Energy	56 856,51	467,34	1 601,26				58 925,11
A. Fuel Combustion (Sectoral Approach)		55 629,82	461,44	1 583,96				57 675,22
1.	Energy Industries	15 001,85	52,30	529,07				15 583,21
2.	Manufacturing Industries and Construction	12 532,60	55,27	596,48				13 184,34
3.	Transport	18 386,39	81,84	185,15				18 653,38
4.	Other Sectors	9 044,47	271,38	257,15				9 573,00
5.	Other	664,52	0,65	16,12				681,29
B. Fugitive Emissions from Fuels		1 226,69	5,91	17,30				1 249,89
1.	Solid Fuels	956,13	0,09	2,61				958,82
2.	Oil and Natural Gas	270,56	5,82	14,69				291,07
2.	Industrial Processes	4 424,05	6,24	769,34	205,35	302,91	108,40	5 816,31
A. Mineral Products		1 877,86	NA	NA				1 877,86
B. Chemical Industry		58,90	0,65	698,14	NA	NA	NA	757,68
C. Metal Production		2 487,30	0,11	NA,NO	NA,NO	289,65	31,07	2 808,13
D. Other Production		NE	5,48	71,21				76,69
E. Production of Halocarbons and SF6					NO	NO	NO	NO
F. Consumption of Halocarbons and SF6					205,35	13,26	77,33	295,94
G. Other		NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO
3.	Solvent and Other Product Use	174,48		137,33				311,81
4.	Agriculture		3 482,72	5 774,48				9 257,20
A. Enteric Fermentation			3 061,25					3 061,25
B. Manure Management			421,47	634,16				1 055,63
C. Rice Cultivation			NO					NO
D. Agricultural Soils			NO	5 140,32				5 140,32
E. Prescribed Burning of Savannas			NO	NO				NO
F. Field Burning of Agricultural Residues			NO	NO				NO
G. Other			NO	NO				NO
5.	Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry(1)	-29 911,83	1,72	64,34				-29 845,76
A. Forest Land		-33 466,78	1,50	19,37				-33 445,91
B. Cropland		4 013,52	IE,NE	44,95				4 058,47
C. Grassland		-395,24	0,22	0,02				-394,99
D. Wetlands		40,81	IE,NE,NO	IE,NE,NO				40,81
E. Settlements		-104,13	IE,NE	IE,NE				-104,13
F. Other Land		IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE				IE,NE
G. Other		NA	NA	NA				NA
6.	Waste	49,12	2 673,76	177,10				2 899,98
A. Solid Waste Disposal on Land		NE,NO	2 673,76					2 673,76
B. Waste-water Handling			IE,NE,NO	177,10				177,10
C. Waste Incineration		49,12	NE	NE				49,12
D. Other		NA	NA	NA				NA
7.	Other (as specified in Summary 1.A)	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO
Memo Items:
International Bunkers		5 183,66	0,73	79,21				5 263,61
Aviation		1 475,52	0,21	18,99				1 494,71
Marine		3 708,14	0,53	60,22				3 768,89
Multilateral Operations		0,32	0,00	0,00				0,32
CO2 Emissions from Biomass		18 044,90						18 044,90
			Total CO2 Equivalent Emissions without Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry					77 210,41
(1 )			Total CO2 Equivalent Emissions with Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry					47 364,66
(1 )	For CO2 from Land Use, Land-use Change and Forestry, removals are always negative (-) and for emissions positive (+).

Annex 2	119

SUMMARY TABLE FOR CO2 EQUIVALENT EMISSIONS								Inventory 1997
							Submission 2009 v1.1
								SWEDEN
GREENHOUSE GAS SOURCE AND		CO2 (1)	CH4	N2O	HFCs	PFCs	SF6	Total
SINK CATEGORIES		CO2 equivalent (Gg )
Total (Net Emissions) (1)		22 532,79	6 578,70	8 431,13	313,40	279,69	153,10	38 288,81
1.	Energy	52 494,99	435,61	1 441,84				54 372,45
A. Fuel Combustion (Sectoral Approach)		51 326,36	429,71	1 424,73				53 180,81
1.	Energy Industries	11 041,92	43,76	364,84				11 450,52
2.	Manufacturing Industries and Construction	12 735,71	53,64	597,39				13 386,74
3.	Transport	18 647,82	73,77	197,95				18 919,54
4.	Other Sectors	8 292,19	257,96	250,28				8 800,43
5.	Other	608,72	0,59	14,27				623,58
B. Fugitive Emissions from Fuels		1 168,63	5,90	17,11				1 191,64
1.	Solid Fuels	886,28	0,08	2,44				888,80
2.	Oil and Natural Gas	282,35	5,81	14,67				302,84
2.	Industrial Processes	4 200,44	6,61	766,19	313,40	279,69	153,10	5 719,43
A. Mineral Products		1 746,27	NA	NA				1 746,27
B. Chemical Industry		58,40	0,64	690,00	NA	NA	NA	749,03
C. Metal Production		2 395,77	0,11	NA,NO	NA,NO	265,09	40,63	2 701,60
D. Other Production		NE	5,87	76,20				82,06
E. Production of Halocarbons and SF6					NO	NO	NO	NO
F. Consumption of Halocarbons and SF6					313,40	14,61	112,47	440,48
G. Other		NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO
3.	Solvent and Other Product Use	179,20		141,67				320,87
4.	Agriculture		3 480,10	5 848,09				9 328,19
A. Enteric Fermentation			3 067,79					3 067,79
B. Manure Management			412,31	647,35				1 059,66
C. Rice Cultivation			NO					NO
D. Agricultural Soils			NO	5 200,74				5 200,74
E. Prescribed Burning of Savannas			NO	NO				NO
F. Field Burning of Agricultural Residues			NO	NO				NO
G. Other			NO	NO				NO
5. Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry(1)		-34 392,44	8,79	65,06				-34 318,59
A. Forest Land		-37 279,79	8,43	16,05				-37 255,31
B. Cropland		3 557,82	IE,NE	48,98				3 606,80
C. Grassland		-535,91	0,36	0,04				-535,51
D. Wetlands		48,58	IE,NE,NO	IE,NE,NO				48,58
E. Settlements		-183,15	IE,NE	IE,NE				-183,15
F. Other Land		IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE				IE,NE
G. Other		NA	NA	NA				NA
6.	Waste	50,60	2 647,59	168,27				2 866,46
A. Solid Waste Disposal on Land		NE,NO	2 647,59					2 647,59
B. Waste-water Handling			IE,NE,NO	168,27				168,27
C. Waste Incineration		50,60	NE	NE				50,60
D. Other		NA	NA	NA				NA
7.	Other (as specified in Summary 1.A)	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO
Memo Items:
International Bunkers		5 908,66	0,82	90,82				6 000,30
Aviation		1 560,26	0,20	20,18				1 580,64
Marine		4 348,41	0,62	70,64				4 419,67
Multilateral Operations		0,32	0,00	0,00				0,32
CO2 Emissions from Biomass		16 812,44						16 812,44
			Total CO2 Equivalent Emissions without Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry					72 607,40
(1 )			Total CO2 Equivalent Emissions with Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry					38 288,81
(1 )	For CO2 from Land Use, Land-use Change and Forestry, removals are always negative (-) and for emissions positive (+).

120	Annex 2

SUMMARY TABLE FOR CO2 EQUIVALENT EMISSIONS								Inventory 1998
							Submission 2009 v1.1
								SWEDEN
GREENHOUSE GAS SOURCE AND		CO2 (1)	CH4	N2O	HFCs	PFCs	SF6	Total
SINK CATEGORIES		CO2 equivalent (Gg )
Total (Net Emissions) (1)		21 167,51	6 404,72	8 419,54	386,42	271,86	99,38	36 749,43
1.	Energy	52 973,52	407,83	1 426,03				54 807,38
A. Fuel Combustion (Sectoral Approach)		51 831,83	401,94	1 409,37				53 643,13
1.	Energy Industries	12 061,99	46,31	381,47				12 489,77
2.	Manufacturing Industries and Construction	12 093,78	53,47	580,09				12 727,34
3.	Transport	18 965,70	67,51	192,09				19 225,30
4.	Other Sectors	8 228,08	234,18	244,45				8 706,71
5.	Other	482,28	0,46	11,27				494,01
B. Fugitive Emissions from Fuels		1 141,70	5,89	16,66				1 164,25
1.	Solid Fuels	847,33	0,08	2,29				849,70
2.	Oil and Natural Gas	294,37	5,82	14,36				314,55
2.	Industrial Processes	4 244,87	6,51	849,44	386,42	271,86	99,38	5 858,48
A. Mineral Products		1 802,06	NA	NA				1 802,06
B. Chemical Industry		54,01	0,65	774,68	NA	NA	NA	829,34
C. Metal Production		2 388,81	0,10	NA,NO	NA,NO	258,15	38,24	2 685,31
D. Other Production		NE	5,76	74,76				80,52
E. Production of Halocarbons and SF6					NO	NO	NO	NO
F. Consumption of Halocarbons and SF6					386,42	13,71	61,14	461,26
G. Other		NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO
3.	Solvent and Other Product Use	173,52		144,15				317,67
4.	Agriculture		3 385,48	5 774,65				9 160,13
A. Enteric Fermentation			2 977,63					2 977,63
B. Manure Management			407,85	648,01				1 055,86
C. Rice Cultivation			NO					NO
D. Agricultural Soils			NO	5 126,64				5 126,64
E. Prescribed Burning of Savannas			NO	NO				NO
F. Field Burning of Agricultural Residues			NO	NO				NO
G. Other			NO	NO				NO
5.	Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry(1)	-36 273,57	0,46	65,46				-36 207,66
A. Forest Land		-39 559,49	0,41	15,54				-39 543,54
B. Cropland		4 101,67	IE,NE	49,91				4 151,58
C. Grassland		-859,24	0,05	0,01				-859,18
D. Wetlands		40,19	IE,NE,NO	IE,NE,NO				40,19
E. Settlements		3,30	IE,NE	IE,NE				3,30
F. Other Land		IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE				IE,NE
G. Other		NA	NA	NA				NA
6.	Waste	49,16	2 604,43	159,82				2 813,42
A. Solid Waste Disposal on Land		NE,NO	2 604,43					2 604,43
B. Waste-water Handling			IE,NE,NO	159,82				159,82
C. Waste Incineration		49,16	NE	NE				49,16
D. Other		NA	NA	NA				NA
7.	Other (as specified in Summary 1.A)	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO
Memo Items:
International Bunkers		6 690,30	0,94	103,25				6 794,49
Aviation		1 673,00	0,23	21,75				1 694,98
Marine		5 017,29	0,71	81,50				5 099,51
Multilateral Operations		0,32	0,00	0,00				0,32
CO2 Emissions from Biomass		16 874,10						16 874,10
			Total CO2 Equivalent Emissions without Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry					72 957,09
(1 )			Total CO2 Equivalent Emissions with Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry					36 749,43
(1 )	For CO2 from Land Use, Land-use Change and Forestry, removals are always negative (-) and for emissions positive (+).

Annex 2	121

SUMMARY TABLE FOR CO2 EQUIVALENT EMISSIONS								Inventory 1999
							Submission 2009 v1.1
								SWEDEN
GREENHOUSE GAS SOURCE AND		CO2 (1)	CH4	N2O	HFCs	PFCs	SF6	Total
SINK CATEGORIES		CO2 equivalent (Gg )
Total (Net Emissions) (1)		20 184,45	6 258,19	7 984,54	489,45	291,29	101,65	35 309,57
1.	Energy	50 385,95	398,25	1 365,68				52 149,88
A. Fuel Combustion (Sectoral Approach)		49 221,81	392,92	1 347,98				50 962,71
1.	Energy Industries	10 643,07	47,61	347,87				11 038,56
2.	Manufacturing Industries and Construction	11 121,22	50,59	541,03				11 712,84
3.	Transport	19 255,71	61,95	204,33				19 521,99
4.	Other Sectors	7 792,89	232,37	245,08				8 270,35
5.	Other	408,92	0,40	9,66				418,98
B. Fugitive Emissions from Fuels		1 164,13	5,32	17,71				1 187,16
1.	Solid Fuels	864,21	0,08	2,35				866,65
2.	Oil and Natural Gas	299,92	5,24	15,35				320,52
2.	Industrial Processes	4 011,34	6,30	762,63	489,45	291,29	101,65	5 662,66
A. Mineral Products		1 750,09	NA	NA				1 750,09
B. Chemical Industry		53,63	0,37	686,83	NA	NA	NA	740,83
C. Metal Production		2 207,61	0,09	NA,NO	NA,NO	282,97	38,24	2 528,91
D. Other Production		NE	5,84	75,80				81,64
E. Production of Halocarbons and SF6					NO	NO	NO	NO
F. Consumption of Halocarbons and SF6					489,45	8,32	63,41	561,18
G. Other		NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO
3.	Solvent and Other Product Use	164,38		134,54				298,92
4.	Agriculture		3 357,75	5 499,80				8 857,55
A. Enteric Fermentation			2 951,06					2 951,06
B. Manure Management			406,69	606,63				1 013,32
C. Rice Cultivation			NO					NO
D. Agricultural Soils			NO	4 893,17				4 893,17
E. Prescribed Burning of Savannas			NO	NO				NO
F. Field Burning of Agricultural Residues			NO	NO				NO
G. Other			NO	NO				NO
5. Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry(1)		-34 425,41	2,96	70,05				-34 352,40
A. Forest Land		-37 936,25	2,91	20,45				-37 912,89
B. Cropland		4 080,14	IE,NE	49,60				4 129,74
C. Grassland		-854,47	0,05	0,01				-854,41
D. Wetlands		58,19	IE,NE,NO	IE,NE,NO				58,19
E. Settlements		226,97	IE,NE	IE,NE				226,97
F. Other Land		IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE				IE,NE
G. Other		NA	NA	NA				NA
6.	Waste	48,20	2 492,93	151,84				2 692,96
A. Solid Waste Disposal on Land		NE,NO	2 492,93					2 492,93
B. Waste-water Handling			IE,NE,NO	151,84				151,84
C. Waste Incineration		48,20	NE	NE				48,20
D. Other		NA	NA	NA				NA
7.	Other (as specified in Summary 1.A)	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO
Memo Items:
International Bunkers		6 788,19	0,94	103,03				6 892,16
Aviation		1 879,29	0,23	24,20				1 903,72
Marine		4 908,90	0,71	78,83				4 988,44
Multilateral Operations		0,32	0,00	0,00				0,32
CO2 Emissions from Biomass		17 145,12						17 145,12
			Total CO2 Equivalent Emissions without Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry					69 661,97
(1 )			Total CO2 Equivalent Emissions with Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry					35 309,57
(1 )	For CO2 from Land Use, Land-use Change and Forestry, removals are always negative (-) and for emissions positive (+).

122	Annex 2

SUMMARY TABLE FOR CO2 EQUIVALENT EMISSIONS								Inventory 2000
							Submission 2009 v1.1
								SWEDEN
GREENHOUSE GAS SOURCE AND		CO2 (1)	CH4	N2O	HFCs	PFCs	SF6	Total
SINK CATEGORIES		CO2 equivalent (Gg )
Total (Net Emissions) (1)		17 689,93	6 074,77	7 891,86	564,63	240,52	93,59	32 555,30
1.	Energy	48 967,43	383,19	1 331,81				50 682,44
A. Fuel Combustion (Sectoral Approach)		47 753,83	377,86	1 314,01				49 445,70
1.	Energy Industries	9 204,55	46,07	311,24				9 561,86
2.	Manufacturing Industries and Construction	11 433,39	42,47	534,65				12 010,52
3.	Transport	19 011,66	55,66	210,86				19 278,18
4.	Other Sectors	7 704,82	233,35	247,59				8 185,76
5.	Other	399,41	0,30	9,66				409,37
B. Fugitive Emissions from Fuels		1 213,61	5,33	17,80				1 236,74
1.	Solid Fuels	860,64	0,08	2,29				863,01
2.	Oil and Natural Gas	352,96	5,25	15,51				373,73
2.	Industrial Processes	4 202,70	7,16	737,86	564,63	240,52	93,59	5 846,46
A. Mineral Products		1 987,03	NA	NA				1 987,03
B. Chemical Industry		47,74	0,56	653,47	NA	NA	NA	701,78
C. Metal Production		2 167,92	0,09	NA,NO	NA,NO	232,70	52,58	2 453,29
D. Other Production		NE	6,51	84,39				90,90
E. Production of Halocarbons and SF6					NO	NO	NO	NO
F. Consumption of Halocarbons and SF6					564,63	7,82	41,01	613,46
G. Other		NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO
3.	Solvent and Other Product Use	155,40		122,14				277,54
4.	Agriculture		3 267,02	5 480,16				8 747,18
A. Enteric Fermentation			2 877,05					2 877,05
B. Manure Management			389,97	594,15				984,12
C. Rice Cultivation			NO					NO
D. Agricultural Soils			NO	4 886,01				4 886,01
E. Prescribed Burning of Savannas			NO	NO				NO
F. Field Burning of Agricultural Residues			NO	NO				NO
G. Other			NO	NO				NO
5.	Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry(1)	-35 680,04	2,95	73,77				-35 603,32
A. Forest Land		-38 034,07	2,84	20,13				-38 011,09
B. Cropland		3 065,78	IE,NE	53,63				3 119,41
C. Grassland		-758,02	0,10	0,01				-757,91
D. Wetlands		62,41	IE,NE,NO	IE,NE,NO				62,41
E. Settlements		-16,13	IE,NE	IE,NE				-16,13
F. Other Land		IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE				IE,NE
G. Other		NA	NA	NA				NA
6.	Waste	44,44	2 414,46	146,11				2 605,01
A. Solid Waste Disposal on Land		NE,NO	2 414,46					2 414,46
B. Waste-water Handling			IE,NE,NO	146,11				146,11
C. Waste Incineration		44,44	NE	NE				44,44
D. Other		NA	NA	NA				NA
7.	Other (as specified in Summary 1.A)	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO
Memo Items:
International Bunkers		6 696,87	0,90	100,97				6 798,74
Aviation		1 926,37	0,20	24,88				1 951,45
Marine		4 770,51	0,70	76,09				4 847,29
Multilateral Operations		0,32	0,00	0,00				0,32
CO2 Emissions from Biomass		15 719,35						15 719,35
			Total CO2 Equivalent Emissions without Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry					68 158,62
(1 )			Total CO2 Equivalent Emissions with Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry					32 555,30
(1 )	For CO2 from Land Use, Land-use Change and Forestry, removals are always negative (-) and for emissions positive (+).

Annex 2	123

SUMMARY TABLE FOR CO2 EQUIVALENT EMISSIONS								Inventory 2001
							Submission 2009 v1.1
								SWEDEN
GREENHOUSE GAS SOURCE AND		CO2 (1)	CH4	N2O	HFCs	PFCs	SF6	Total
SINK CATEGORIES		CO2 equivalent (Gg )
Total (Net Emissions) (1)		21 865,98	6 045,35	7 750,77	611,88	235,61	111,49	36 621,08
1.	Energy	49 445,59	388,17	1 363,26				51 197,03
A. Fuel Combustion (Sectoral Approach)		48 353,18	382,99	1 346,27				50 082,43
1.	Energy Industries	10 544,70	56,29	355,19				10 956,18
2.	Manufacturing Industries and Construction	11 408,46	54,64	550,84				12 013,95
3.	Transport	19 227,36	49,82	196,55				19 473,73
4.	Other Sectors	6 896,93	222,06	237,33				7 356,32
5.	Other	275,72	0,18	6,36				282,26
B. Fugitive Emissions from Fuels		1 092,41	5,19	17,00				1 114,60
1.	Solid Fuels	775,97	0,07	2,05				778,10
2.	Oil and Natural Gas	316,44	5,12	14,94				336,50
2.	Industrial Processes	4 467,03	7,30	575,91	611,88	235,61	111,49	6 009,21
A. Mineral Products		2 031,33	NA	NA				2 031,33
B. Chemical Industry		46,74	0,76	492,59	NA	NA	NA	540,09
C. Metal Production		2 388,95	0,11	NA,NO	NA,NO	227,18	55,50	2 671,73
D. Other Production		NE	6,43	83,32				89,75
E. Production of Halocarbons and SF6					NO	NO	NO	NO
F. Consumption of Halocarbons and SF6					611,88	8,43	55,99	676,31
G. Other		NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO
3.	Solvent and Other Product Use	150,13		118,42				268,55
4.	Agriculture		3 276,26	5 476,50				8 752,76
A. Enteric Fermentation			2 846,74					2 846,74
B. Manure Management			429,52	551,13				980,65
C. Rice Cultivation			NO					NO
D. Agricultural Soils			NO	4 925,36				4 925,36
E. Prescribed Burning of Savannas			NO	NO				NO
F. Field Burning of Agricultural Residues			NO	NO				NO
G. Other			NO	NO				NO
5.	Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry(1)	-32 244,24	3,01	74,71				-32 166,52
A. Forest Land		-35 862,91	2,88	17,03				-35 843,00
B. Cropland		4 148,66	IE,NE	57,66				4 206,32
C. Grassland		-686,47	0,13	0,01				-686,33
D. Wetlands		62,99	IE,NE,NO	IE,NE,NO				62,99
E. Settlements		93,50	IE,NE	IE,NE				93,50
F. Other Land		IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE				IE,NE
G. Other		NA	NA	NA				NA
6.	Waste	47,47	2 370,61	141,97				2 560,05
A. Solid Waste Disposal on Land		NE,NO	2 370,61					2 370,61
B. Waste-water Handling			IE,NE,NO	141,97				141,97
C. Waste Incineration		47,47	NE	NE				47,47
D. Other		NA	NA	NA				NA
7.	Other (as specified in Summary 1.A)	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO
Memo Items:
International Bunkers		6 525,56	0,86	98,05				6 624,46
Aviation		1 870,86	0,18	24,15				1 895,19
Marine		4 654,69	0,68	73,90				4 729,28
Multilateral Operations		0,76	0,00	0,00				0,77
CO2 Emissions from Biomass		18 850,32						18 850,32
			Total CO2 Equivalent Emissions without Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry					68 787,59
(1 )			Total CO2 Equivalent Emissions with Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry					36 621,08
(1 )	For CO2 from Land Use, Land-use Change and Forestry, removals are always negative (-) and for emissions positive (+).

124	Annex 2

SUMMARY TABLE FOR CO2 EQUIVALENT EMISSIONS								Inventory 2002
							Submission 2009 v1.1
								SWEDEN
GREENHOUSE GAS SOURCE AND		CO2 (1)	CH4	N2O	HFCs	PFCs	SF6	Total
SINK CATEGORIES		CO2 equivalent (Gg )
Total (Net Emissions) (1)		20 546,81	5 871,27	7 679,15	664,27	260,91	103,85	35 126,26
1.	Energy	50 510,84	388,46	1 367,35				52 266,64
A. Fuel Combustion (Sectoral Approach)		49 439,23	382,83	1 351,66				51 173,72
1.	Energy Industries	11 586,14	59,26	382,80				12 028,20
2.	Manufacturing Industries and Construction	11 365,45	47,91	535,04				11 948,40
3.	Transport	19 802,36	46,99	190,79				20 040,14
4.	Other Sectors	6 366,46	228,48	235,56				6 830,49
5.	Other	318,83	0,19	7,46				326,49
B. Fugitive Emissions from Fuels		1 071,60	5,63	15,69				1 092,92
1.	Solid Fuels	768,66	0,07	2,05				770,77
2.	Oil and Natural Gas	302,95	5,56	13,64				322,15
2.	Industrial Processes	4 344,13	7,23	539,73	664,27	260,91	103,85	5 920,12
A. Mineral Products		2 000,03	NA	NA				2 000,03
B. Chemical Industry		50,00	0,76	457,38	NA	NA	NA	508,14
C. Metal Production		2 294,10	0,10	NA,NO	NA,NO	247,69	65,87	2 607,76
D. Other Production		NE	6,38	82,35				88,73
E. Production of Halocarbons and SF6					NO	NO	NO	NO
F. Consumption of Halocarbons and SF6					664,27	13,22	37,98	715,47
G. Other		NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO
3.	Solvent and Other Product Use	148,45		127,14				275,59
4.	Agriculture		3 256,71	5 431,90				8 688,61
A. Enteric Fermentation			2 829,69					2 829,69
B. Manure Management			427,02	550,79				977,81
C. Rice Cultivation			NO					NO
D. Agricultural Soils			NO	4 881,11				4 881,11
E. Prescribed Burning of Savannas			NO	NO				NO
F. Field Burning of Agricultural Residues			NO	NO				NO
G. Other			NO	NO				NO
5.	Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry(1)	-34 517,34	4,86	73,34				-34 439,14
A. Forest Land		-37 656,06	4,54	11,93				-37 639,58
B. Cropland		3 674,63	IE,NE	61,38				3 736,01
C. Grassland		-510,95	0,32	0,03				-510,59
D. Wetlands		61,20	IE,NE,NO	IE,NE,NO				61,20
E. Settlements		-86,17	IE,NE	IE,NE				-86,17
F. Other Land		IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE				IE,NE
G. Other		NA	NA	NA				NA
6.	Waste	60,73	2 214,01	139,69				2 414,43
A. Solid Waste Disposal on Land		NE,NO	2 214,01					2 214,01
B. Waste-water Handling			IE,NE,NO	139,69				139,69
C. Waste Incineration		60,73	NE	NE				60,73
D. Other		NA	NA	NA				NA
7.	Other (as specified in Summary 1.A)	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO
Memo Items:
International Bunkers		5 715,32	0,74	86,43				5 802,48
Aviation		1 611,37	0,14	21,03				1 632,53
Marine		4 103,95	0,60	65,40				4 169,95
Multilateral Operations		0,84	0,00	0,00				0,84
CO2 Emissions from Biomass		18 355,08						18 355,08
			Total CO2 Equivalent Emissions without Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry					69 565,39
(1 )			Total CO2 Equivalent Emissions with Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry					35 126,26
(1 )	For CO2 from Land Use, Land-use Change and Forestry, removals are always negative (-) and for emissions positive (+).

Annex 2	125

SUMMARY TABLE FOR CO2 EQUIVALENT EMISSIONS								Inventory 2003
							Submission 2009 v1.1
								SWEDEN
GREENHOUSE GAS SOURCE AND		CO2 (1)	CH4	N2O	HFCs	PFCs	SF6	Total
SINK CATEGORIES		CO2 equivalent (Gg )
Total (Net Emissions) (1)		22 251,55	5 733,46	7 648,39	709,46	258,30	68,88	36 670,03
1.	Energy	51 202,28	400,11	1 400,64				53 003,04
A. Fuel Combustion (Sectoral Approach)		50 212,52	395,21	1 383,61				51 991,34
1.	Energy Industries	12 671,64	63,76	434,47				13 169,87
2.	Manufacturing Industries and Construction	11 039,07	44,47	510,09				11 593,63
3.	Transport	20 115,79	42,94	187,14				20 345,86
4.	Other Sectors	6 086,55	243,87	244,88				6 575,30
5.	Other	299,48	0,17	7,03				306,68
B. Fugitive Emissions from Fuels		989,75	4,91	17,04				1 011,69
1.	Solid Fuels	671,12	0,06	1,83				673,01
2.	Oil and Natural Gas	318,64	4,84	15,21				338,69
2.	Industrial Processes	4 453,34	7,65	533,13	709,46	258,30	68,88	6 030,76
A. Mineral Products		1 939,42	NA	NA				1 939,42
B. Chemical Industry		47,74	0,76	445,73	NA	NA	NA	494,23
C. Metal Production		2 466,17	0,11	NA,NO	NA,NO	248,60	35,06	2 749,95
D. Other Production		NE	6,78	87,40				94,17
E. Production of Halocarbons and SF6					NO	NO	NO	NO
F. Consumption of Halocarbons and SF6					709,46	9,70	33,82	752,98
G. Other		NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO
3.	Solvent and Other Product Use	156,05		136,38				292,43
4.	Agriculture		3 231,88	5 358,59				8 590,47
A. Enteric Fermentation			2 783,28					2 783,28
B. Manure Management			448,60	520,28				968,89
C. Rice Cultivation			NO					NO
D. Agricultural Soils			NO	4 838,30				4 838,30
E. Prescribed Burning of Savannas			NO	NO				NO
F. Field Burning of Agricultural Residues			NO	NO				NO
G. Other			NO	NO				NO
5.	Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry(1)	-33 636,62	6,05	80,90				-33 549,67
A. Forest Land		-36 095,27	5,65	14,21				-36 075,41
B. Cropland		2 739,88	IE,NE	66,65				2 806,53
C. Grassland		-167,13	0,40	0,04				-166,68
D. Wetlands		56,39	IE,NE,NO	IE,NE,NO				56,39
E. Settlements		-170,50	IE,NE	IE,NE				-170,50
F. Other Land		IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE				IE,NE
G. Other		NA	NA	NA				NA
6.	Waste	76,51	2 087,77	138,74				2 303,02
A. Solid Waste Disposal on Land		NE,NO	2 087,77					2 087,77
B. Waste-water Handling			IE,NE,NO	138,74				138,74
C. Waste Incineration		76,51	NE	NE				76,51
D. Other		NA	NA	NA				NA
7.	Other (as specified in Summary 1.A)	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO
Memo Items:
International Bunkers		7 086,90	0,94	107,96				7 195,80
Aviation		1 566,51	0,13	20,41				1 587,05
Marine		5 520,39	0,81	87,55				5 608,76
Multilateral Operations		0,76	0,00	0,00				0,77
CO2 Emissions from Biomass		19 059,18						19 059,18
			Total CO2 Equivalent Emissions without Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry					70 219,71
(1 )			Total CO2 Equivalent Emissions with Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry					36 670,03
(1 )	For CO2 from Land Use, Land-use Change and Forestry, removals are always negative (-) and for emissions positive (+).

126	Annex 2

SUMMARY TABLE FOR CO2 EQUIVALENT EMISSIONS								Inventory 2004
							Submission 2009 v1.1
								SWEDEN
GREENHOUSE GAS SOURCE AND		CO2 (1)	CH4	N2O	HFCs	PFCs	SF6	Total
SINK CATEGORIES		CO2 equivalent (Gg )
Total (Net Emissions) (1)		23 187,26	5 754,09	7 639,16	769,68	253,98	81,21	37 685,39
1.	Energy	50 610,57	400,55	1 367,65				52 378,77
A. Fuel Combustion (Sectoral Approach)		49 462,99	394,98	1 350,18				51 208,15
1.	Energy Industries	11 934,35	65,25	410,83				12 410,43
2.	Manufacturing Industries and Construction	10 950,14	44,40	508,49				11 503,03
3.	Transport	20 471,01	39,09	181,70				20 691,80
4.	Other Sectors	5 829,13	246,07	242,95				6 318,15
5.	Other	278,36	0,17	6,22				284,74
B. Fugitive Emissions from Fuels		1 147,58	5,57	17,47				1 170,62
1.	Solid Fuels	837,69	0,07	2,19				839,96
2.	Oil and Natural Gas	309,89	5,50	15,28				330,66
2.	Industrial Processes	4 452,27	7,54	530,08	769,68	253,98	81,21	6 094,77
A. Mineral Products		1 998,17	NA	NA				1 998,17
B. Chemical Industry		53,38	0,78	444,30	NA	NA	NA	498,46
C. Metal Production		2 400,72	0,11	NA,NO	NA,NO	248,94	40,44	2 690,20
D. Other Production		NE	6,66	85,78				92,44
E. Production of Halocarbons and SF6					NO	NO	NO	NO
F. Consumption of Halocarbons and SF6					769,68	5,05	40,77	815,50
G. Other		NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO
3.	Solvent and Other Product Use	164,88		146,18				311,06
4.	Agriculture		3 273,63	5 366,96				8 640,58
A. Enteric Fermentation			2 824,41					2 824,41
B. Manure Management			449,21	526,63				975,84
C. Rice Cultivation			NO					NO
D. Agricultural Soils			NO	4 840,33				4 840,33
E. Prescribed Burning of Savannas			NO	NO				NO
F. Field Burning of Agricultural Residues			NO	NO				NO
G. Other			NO	NO				NO
5.	Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry(1)	-32 129,36	5,39	91,07				-32 032,89
A. Forest Land		-34 087,53	5,29	17,59				-34 064,66
B. Cropland		2 739,27	IE,NE	73,47				2 812,74
C. Grassland		-681,51	0,11	0,01				-681,39
D. Wetlands		48,00	IE,NE,NO	IE,NE,NO				48,00
E. Settlements		-147,58	IE,NE	IE,NE				-147,58
F. Other Land		IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE				IE,NE
G. Other		NA	NA	NA				NA
6.	Waste	88,90	2 066,97	137,23				2 293,10
A. Solid Waste Disposal on Land		NE,NO	2 066,97					2 066,97
B. Waste-water Handling			IE,NE,NO	137,23				137,23
C. Waste Incineration		88,90	NE	NE				88,90
D. Other		NA	NA	NA				NA
7.	Other (as specified in Summary 1.A)	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO
Memo Items:
International Bunkers		8 274,55	1,12	124,99				8 400,66
Aviation		1 771,54	0,15	22,69				1 794,38
Marine		6 503,01	0,97	102,30				6 606,28
Multilateral Operations		0,76	0,00	0,00				0,77
CO2 Emissions from Biomass		19 161,07						19 161,07
			Total CO2 Equivalent Emissions without Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry					69 718,28
(1 )			Total CO2 Equivalent Emissions with Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry					37 685,39
(1 )	For CO2 from Land Use, Land-use Change and Forestry, removals are always negative (-) and for emissions positive (+).

Annex 2	127

SUMMARY TABLE FOR CO2 EQUIVALENT EMISSIONS								Inventory 2005
							Submission 2009 v1.1
								SWEDEN
GREENHOUSE GAS SOURCE AND		CO2 (1)	CH4	N2O	HFCs	PFCs	SF6	Total
SINK CATEGORIES		CO2 equivalent (Gg )
Total (Net Emissions) (1)		23 702,55	5 628,85	7 532,82	796,94	257,15	142,48	38 060,80
1.	Energy	47 817,80	417,05	1 343,64				49 578,49
A. Fuel Combustion (Sectoral Approach)		46 931,99	412,11	1 327,82				48 671,92
1.	Energy Industries	10 970,77	71,70	403,63				11 446,10
2.	Manufacturing Industries and Construction	10 287,52	43,51	503,59				10 834,62
3.	Transport	20 730,16	37,22	178,56				20 945,93
4.	Other Sectors	4 720,68	259,54	237,59				5 217,81
5.	Other	222,86	0,13	4,46				227,45
B. Fugitive Emissions from Fuels		885,80	4,94	15,82				906,57
1.	Solid Fuels	576,63	0,05	1,52				578,21
2.	Oil and Natural Gas	309,17	4,89	14,30				328,36
2.	Industrial Processes	4 875,61	7,40	534,33	796,94	257,15	142,48	6 613,91
A. Mineral Products		2 119,66	NA	NA				2 119,66
B. Chemical Industry		52,63	0,64	448,77	NA	NA	NA	502,05
C. Metal Production		2 703,31	0,11	NA,NO	NA,NO	255,38	99,86	3 058,67
D. Other Production		NE	6,64	85,55				92,20
E. Production of Halocarbons and SF6					NA,NO	NO	NO	NA,NO
F. Consumption of Halocarbons and SF6					796,94	1,76	42,63	841,34
G. Other		NO	NO	NO	NA,NO	NO	NO	NA,NO
3.	Solvent and Other Product Use	165,04		136,46				301,50
4.	Agriculture		3 276,80	5 276,04				8 552,84
A. Enteric Fermentation			2 793,82					2 793,82
B. Manure Management			482,97	489,56				972,53
C. Rice Cultivation			NO					NO
D. Agricultural Soils			NO	4 786,48				4 786,48
E. Prescribed Burning of Savannas			NO	NO				NO
F. Field Burning of Agricultural Residues			NO	NO				NO
G. Other			NO	NO				NO
5.	Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry(1)	-29 247,07	4,99	102,81				-29 139,28
A. Forest Land		-31 356,52	4,89	25,92				-31 325,71
B. Cropland		2 674,20	IE,NE	76,88				2 751,08
C. Grassland		-478,59	0,10	0,01				-478,47
D. Wetlands		61,78	IE,NE,NO	IE,NE,NO				61,78
E. Settlements		-147,95	IE,NE	IE,NE				-147,95
F. Other Land		IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE				IE,NE
G. Other		NA	NA	NA				NA
6.	Waste	91,18	1 922,62	139,54				2 153,34
A. Solid Waste Disposal on Land		NE,NO	1 922,62					1 922,62
B. Waste-water Handling			IE,NE,NO	139,54				139,54
C. Waste Incineration		91,18	NE	NE				91,18
D. Other		NA	NA	NA				NA
7.	Other (as specified in Summary 1.A)	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO
Memo Items:
International Bunkers		8 575,32	1,15	129,63				8 706,11
Aviation		1 935,67	0,16	24,04				1 959,87
Marine		6 639,65	0,99	105,60				6 746,24
Multilateral Operations		1,78	0,00	0,01				1,79
CO2 Emissions from Biomass		20 582,31						20 582,31
			Total CO2 Equivalent Emissions without Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry					67 200,07
(1 )			Total CO2 Equivalent Emissions with Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry					38 060,80
(1 )	For CO2 from Land Use, Land-use Change and Forestry, removals are always negative (-) and for emissions positive (+).

128	Annex 2

SUMMARY TABLE FOR CO2 EQUIVALENT EMISSIONS								Inventory 2006
							Submission 2009 v1.1
								SWEDEN
GREENHOUSE GAS SOURCE AND		CO2 (1)	CH4	N2O	HFCs	PFCs	SF6	Total
SINK CATEGORIES		CO2 equivalent (Gg )
Total (Net Emissions) (1)		27 013,44	5 542,67	7 544,95	825,63	245,32	111,31	41 283,31
1.	Energy	47 563,91	410,71	1 371,04				49 345,65
A. Fuel Combustion (Sectoral Approach)		46 201,80	405,05	1 353,33				47 960,18
1.	Energy Industries	10 656,03	74,37	420,37				11 150,78
2.	Manufacturing Industries and Construction	10 596,99	48,88	531,87				11 177,74
3.	Transport	20 549,75	33,86	168,86				20 752,47
4.	Other Sectors	4 152,41	247,80	227,34				4 627,56
5.	Other	246,61	0,14	4,88				251,63
B. Fugitive Emissions from Fuels		1 362,11	5,66	17,71				1 385,48
1.	Solid Fuels	578,88	0,05	1,61				580,54
2.	Oil and Natural Gas	783,23	5,61	16,10				804,94
2.	Industrial Processes	4 929,58	7,57	552,40	825,63	245,32	111,31	6 671,80
A. Mineral Products		2 275,28	NA	NA				2 275,28
B. Chemical Industry		48,26	0,79	466,08	NA	NA	NA	515,13
C. Metal Production		2 606,05	0,09	NA,NO	NA,NO	243,51	76,94	2 926,58
D. Other Production		NE	6,70	86,31				93,01
E. Production of Halocarbons and SF6					NA,NO	NO	NO	NA,NO
F. Consumption of Halocarbons and SF6					825,63	1,81	34,37	861,80
G. Other		NO	NO	NO	NA,NO	NO	NO	NA,NO
3.	Solvent and Other Product Use	162,89		131,29				294,18
4.	Agriculture		3 267,11	5 235,31				8 502,42
A. Enteric Fermentation			2 793,50					2 793,50
B. Manure Management			473,61	487,48				961,10
C. Rice Cultivation			NO					NO
D. Agricultural Soils			NO	4 747,82				4 747,82
E. Prescribed Burning of Savannas			NO	NO				NO
F. Field Burning of Agricultural Residues			NO	NO				NO
G. Other			NO	NO				NO
5.	Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry(1)	-25 713,45	12,21	114,08				-25 587,16
A. Forest Land		-27 793,12	12,10	28,51				-27 752,51
B. Cropland		2 804,86	IE,NE	85,56				2 890,42
C. Grassland		-1 196,36	0,12	0,01				-1 196,23
D. Wetlands		37,22	IE,NE,NO	IE,NE,NO				37,22
E. Settlements		433,95	IE,NE	IE,NE				433,95
F. Other Land		IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE				IE,NE
G. Other		NA	NA	NA				NA
6.	Waste	70,51	1 845,06	140,84				2 056,42
A. Solid Waste Disposal on Land		NE,NO	1 845,06					1 845,06
B. Waste-water Handling			IE,NE,NO	140,84				140,84
C. Waste Incineration		70,51	NE	NE				70,51
D. Other		NA	NA	NA				NA
7.	Other (as specified in Summary 1.A)	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO
Memo Items:
International Bunkers		9 145,77	1,25	137,96				9 284,99
Aviation		2 006,20	0,19	24,68				2 031,06
Marine		7 139,57	1,07	113,29				7 253,93
Multilateral Operations		2,73	0,00	0,01				2,74
CO2 Emissions from Biomass		21 885,54						21 885,54
			Total CO2 Equivalent Emissions without Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry					66 870,47
(1 )			Total CO2 Equivalent Emissions with Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry					41 283,31
(1 )	For CO2 from Land Use, Land-use Change and Forestry, removals are always negative (-) and for emissions positive (+).

Annex 2	129

SUMMARY TABLE FOR CO2 EQUIVALENT EMISSIONS								Inventory 2007
							Submission 2009 v1.1
								SWEDEN
GREENHOUSE GAS SOURCE AND		CO2 (1)	CH4	N2O	HFCs	PFCs	SF6	Total
SINK CATEGORIES		CO2 equivalent (Gg )
Total (Net Emissions) (1)		31 043,36	5 359,57	7 296,11	855,34	247,60	150,43	44 952,41
1.	Energy	46 421,54	466,08	1 349,52				48 237,14
A. Fuel Combustion (Sectoral Approach)		45 179,69	460,95	1 333,07				46 973,71
1.	Energy Industries	10 283,17	74,65	406,41				10 764,23
2.	Manufacturing Industries and Construction	10 099,45	47,13	512,94				10 659,51
3.	Transport	20 642,37	31,08	163,00				20 836,44
4.	Other Sectors	3 898,35	307,94	245,54				4 451,84
5.	Other	256,35	0,14	5,19				261,68
B. Fugitive Emissions from Fuels		1 241,85	5,13	16,45				1 263,44
1.	Solid Fuels	614,93	0,05	1,57				616,56
2.	Oil and Natural Gas	626,92	5,08	14,88				646,88
2.	Industrial Processes	4 933,23	7,52	338,49	855,34	247,60	150,43	6 532,61
A. Mineral Products		2 179,72	NA	NA				2 179,72
B. Chemical Industry		47,21	0,76	252,23	NA	NA	NA	300,19
C. Metal Production		2 706,31	0,07	NA,NO	NA,NO	245,80	113,17	3 065,35
D. Other Production		NE	6,69	86,27				92,96
E. Production of Halocarbons and SF6					NA,NO	NO	NO	NA,NO
F. Consumption of Halocarbons and SF6					855,34	1,80	37,26	894,39
G. Other		NO	NO	NO	NA,NO	NO	NO	NA,NO
3.	Solvent and Other Product Use	162,89		131,29				294,18
4.	Agriculture		3 208,46	5 222,24				8 430,70
A. Enteric Fermentation			2 736,05					2 736,05
B. Manure Management			472,41	478,40				950,81
C. Rice Cultivation			NO					NO
D. Agricultural Soils			NO	4 743,84				4 743,84
E. Prescribed Burning of Savannas			NO	NO				NO
F. Field Burning of Agricultural Residues			NO	NO				NO
G. Other			NO	NO				NO
5.	Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry(1)	-20 577,65	2,39	115,56				-20 459,70
A. Forest Land		-22 838,59	2,33	37,13				-22 799,14
B. Cropland		2 723,73	IE,NE	78,43				2 802,16
C. Grassland		-428,51	0,06	0,01				-428,44
D. Wetlands		61,78	IE,NE,NO	IE,NE,NO				61,78
E. Settlements		-96,07	IE,NE	IE,NE				-96,07
F. Other Land		IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE				IE,NE
G. Other		NA	NA	NA				NA
6.	Waste	103,35	1 675,12	139,01				1 917,48
A. Solid Waste Disposal on Land		NE,NO	1 675,12					1 675,12
B. Waste-water Handling			IE,NE,NO	139,01				139,01
C. Waste Incineration		103,35	NE	NE				103,35
D. Other		NA	NA	NA				NA
7.	Other (as specified in Summary 1.A)	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO
Memo Items:
International Bunkers		9 612,05	1,30	144,91				9 758,27
Aviation		2 194,54	0,20	27,24				2 221,97
Marine		7 417,52	1,11	117,67				7 536,30
Multilateral Operations		1,96	0,00	0,01				1,97
CO2 Emissions from Biomass		22 704,30						22 704,30
			Total CO2 Equivalent Emissions without Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry					65 412,11
(1 )			Total CO2 Equivalent Emissions with Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry					44 952,41
(1 )	For CO2 from Land Use, Land-use Change and Forestry, removals are always negative (-) and for emissions positive (+).

130	Annex 2

TABLE 10 EMISSION TRENDS										Inventory 2007
CO2										Submission 2009 v1.1
(Part 1 of 2)											SWEDEN
GREENHOUSE GAS SOURCE AND SINK CATEGORIES		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999
		(Gg)	(Gg)	(Gg)	(Gg)	(Gg)	(Gg)	(Gg)	(Gg)	(Gg)	(Gg)
1.	Energy	51 570,17	52 407,33	52 351,26	51 807,48	54 221,64	53 261,29	56 856,51	52 494,99	52 973,52	50 385,95
A. Fuel Combustion (Sectoral Approach)		50 469,88	51 212,79	51 305,50	50 772,90	52 866,07	51 849,05	55 629,82	51 326,36	51 831,83	49 221,81
1.	Energy Industries	9 830,65	11 005,80	11 614,09	11 464,38	11 960,53	11 061,07	15 001,85	11 041,92	12 061,99	10 643,07
2.	Manufacturing Industries and Construction	11 150,05	11 172,48	10 205,40	10 979,89	12 033,65	12 492,34	12 532,60	12 735,71	12 093,78	11 121,22
3.	Transport	18 332,78	17 874,06	18 991,60	18 113,98	18 739,16	18 636,11	18 386,39	18 647,82	18 965,70	19 255,71
4.	Other Sectors	10 311,30	10 091,09	9 373,01	9 333,52	9 357,19	8 955,25	9 044,47	8 292,19	8 228,08	7 792,89
5.	Other	845,11	1 069,36	1 121,39	881,13	775,54	704,27	664,52	608,72	482,28	408,92
B. Fugitive Emissions from Fuels		1 100,29	1 194,54	1 045,76	1 034,58	1 355,58	1 412,23	1 226,69	1 168,63	1 141,70	1 164,13
1.	Solid Fuels	789,03	938,27	749,89	718,01	1 094,70	1 110,37	956,13	886,28	847,33	864,21
2.	Oil and Natural Gas	311,26	256,27	295,87	316,57	260,87	301,87	270,56	282,35	294,37	299,92
2.	Industrial Processes	4 400,73	4 239,34	4 093,91	4 140,12	4 397,56	4 504,30	4 424,05	4 200,44	4 244,87	4 011,34
A. Mineral Products		1 919,29	1 739,06	1 649,76	1 670,60	1 755,66	1 967,53	1 877,86	1 746,27	1 802,06	1 750,09
B. Chemical Industry		68,80	69,55	53,26	54,76	57,14	57,77	58,90	58,40	54,01	53,63
C. Metal Production		2 412,64	2 430,73	2 390,89	2 414,76	2 584,76	2 479,00	2 487,30	2 395,77	2 388,81	2 207,61
D. Other Production		NE	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
E. Production of Halocarbons and SF6
F. Consumption of Halocarbons and SF6
G. Other		NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO
3.	Solvent and Other Product Use	242,27	231,12	218,72	207,88	197,12	184,86	174,48	179,20	173,52	164,38
4.	Agriculture
A. Enteric Fermentation
B. Manure Management
C. Rice Cultivation
D. Agricultural Soils
E. Prescribed Burning of Savannas
F. Field Burning of Agricultural Residues
G. Other
5.	Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry	-32 134,32	-33 407,00	-30 708,70	-28 454,11	-25 275,31	-25 523,21	-29 911,83	-34 392,44	-36 273,57	-34 425,41
A. Forest Land		-35	-36	-34	-31	-28	-28	-33	-37	-39	-37
		471,29	662,92	136,25	844,24	258,05	550,73	466,78	279,79	559,49	936,25
B. Cropland		4 047,99	3 832,70	3 638,94	3 851,43	3 605,74	3 547,22	4 013,52	3 557,82	4 101,67	4 080,14
C. Grassland		-645,57	-493,84	-441,66	-477,32	-576,61	-552,15	-395,24	-535,91	-859,24	-854,47
D. Wetlands		39,60	36,59	39,60	38,39	41,98	46,20	40,81	48,58	40,19	58,19
E. Settlements		-105,05	-119,53	190,67	-22,37	-88,37	-13,75	-104,13	-183,15	3,30	226,97
F. Other Land		IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE
G. Other		NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
6.	Waste	43,85	52,20	58,33	48,02	49,08	42,74	49,12	50,60	49,16	48,20
A. Solid Waste Disposal on Land		NE,NO	NE,NO	NE,NO	NE,NO	NE,NO	NE,NO	NE,NO	NE,NO	NE,NO	NE,NO
B. Waste-water Handling
C. Waste Incineration		43,85	52,20	58,33	48,02	49,08	42,74	49,12	50,60	49,16	48,20
D. Other		NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
7.	Other (as specified in Summary 1.A)	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO
Total CO2 emissions including net CO2 from LULUCF		24 122,70	23 523,00	26 013,51	27 749,38	33 590,09	32 469,98	31 592,34	22 532,79	21 167,51	20 184,45
Total CO2 emissions excluding net CO2 from LULUCF		56 257,02	56 929,99	56 722,21	56 203,50	58 865,40	57 993,19	61 504,17	56 925,23	57 441,08	54 609,87
Memo Items:
International Bunkers		3 563,03	3 727,88	3 908,85	4 252,34	4 910,50	4 937,53	5 183,66	5 908,66	6 690,30	6 788,19
Aviation		1 335,16	1 088,16	899,65	1 229,95	1 350,69	1 437,04	1 475,52	1 560,26	1 673,00	1 879,29
Marine		2 227,87	2 639,73	3 009,20	3 022,39	3 559,81	3 500,48	3 708,14	4 348,41	5 017,29	4 908,90
Multilateral Operations		0,05	0,05	0,05	0,32	0,32	0,32	0,32	0,32	0,32	0,32
CO2 Emissions from Biomass		11 436,68	12 152,72	13 066,89	14 206,56	15 698,09	16 495,50	18 044,90	16 812,44	16 874,10	17 145,12

Annex 2	131

TABLE 10 EMISSION TRENDS										Inventory 2007
CO2									Submission 2009 v1.1
(Part 2 of 2)										SWEDEN
										Change
GREENHOUSE GAS SOURCE AND SINK CATEGORIES		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	from 1990
GREENHOUSE GAS SOURCE AND SINK CATEGORIES		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	to 2007
		(Gg)	(Gg)	(Gg)	(Gg)	(Gg)	(Gg)	(Gg)	(Gg)	%
1.	Energy	48 967,43	49 445,59	50 510,84	51 202,28	50 610,57	47 817,80	47 563,91	46 421,54	-9,98
A. Fuel Combustion (Sectoral Approach)		47 753,83	48 353,18	49 439,23	50 212,52	49 462,99	46 931,99	46 201,80	45 179,69	-10,48
1.	Energy Industries	9 204,55	10 544,70	11 586,14	12 671,64	11 934,35	10 970,77	10 656,03	10 283,17	4,60
2.	Manufacturing Industries and Construction	11 433,39	11 408,46	11 365,45	11 039,07	10 950,14	10 287,52	10 596,99	10 099,45	-9,42
3. Transport		19 011,66	19 227,36	19 802,36	20 115,79	20 471,01	20 730,16	20 549,75	20 642,37	12,60
4.	Other Sectors	7 704,82	6 896,93	6 366,46	6 086,55	5 829,13	4 720,68	4 152,41	3 898,35	-62,19
5.	Other	399,41	275,72	318,83	299,48	278,36	222,86	246,61	256,35	-69,67
B. Fugitive Emissions from Fuels		1 213,61	1 092,41	1 071,60	989,75	1 147,58	885,80	1 362,11	1 241,85	12,87
1.	Solid Fuels	860,64	775,97	768,66	671,12	837,69	576,63	578,88	614,93	-22,07
2.	Oil and Natural Gas	352,96	316,44	302,95	318,64	309,89	309,17	783,23	626,92	101,42
2.	Industrial Processes	4 202,70	4 467,03	4 344,13	4 453,34	4 452,27	4 875,61	4 929,58	4 933,23	12,10
A. Mineral Products		1 987,03	2 031,33	2 000,03	1 939,42	1 998,17	2 119,66	2 275,28	2 179,72	13,57
B. Chemical Industry		47,74	46,74	50,00	47,74	53,38	52,63	48,26	47,21	-31,38
C. Metal Production		2 167,92	2 388,95	2 294,10	2 466,17	2 400,72	2 703,31	2 606,05	2 706,31	12,17
D. Other Production		NE	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE	0,00
E. Production of Halocarbons and SF6
F. Consumption of Halocarbons and SF6
G. Other		NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	0,00
3.	Solvent and Other Product Use	155,40	150,13	148,45	156,05	164,88	165,04	162,89	162,89	-32,76
4.	Agriculture
A. Enteric Fermentation
B. Manure Management
C. Rice Cultivation
D. Agricultural Soils
E. Prescribed Burning of Savannas
F. Field Burning of Agricultural Residues
G. Other
5. Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry		-35 680,04	-32 244,24	-34 517,34	-33 636,62	-32 129,36	-29 247,07	-25 713,45	-20 577,65	-35,96
A. Forest Land		-38 034,07	-35 862,91	-37 656,06	-36 095,27	-34 087,53	-31 356,52	-27 793,12	-22 838,59	-35,61
B. Cropland		3 065,78	4 148,66	3 674,63	2 739,88	2 739,27	2 674,20	2 804,86	2 723,73	-32,71
C. Grassland		-758,02	-686,47	-510,95	-167,13	-681,51	-478,59	-1 196,36	-428,51	-33,62
D. Wetlands		62,41	62,99	61,20	56,39	48,00	61,78	37,22	61,78	56,02
E. Settlements		-16,13	93,50	-86,17	-170,50	-147,58	-147,95	433,95	-96,07	-8,55
F. Other Land		IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE	0,00
G. Other		NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	0,00
6.	Waste	44,44	47,47	60,73	76,51	88,90	91,18	70,51	103,35	135,66
A. Solid Waste Disposal on Land		NE,NO	NE,NO	NE,NO	NE,NO	NE,NO	NE,NO	NE,NO	NE,NO	0,00
B. Waste-water Handling
C. Waste Incineration		44,44	47,47	60,73	76,51	88,90	91,18	70,51	103,35	135,66
D. Other		NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	0,00
7.	Other (as specified in Summary 1.A)	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	0,00
Total CO2 emissions including net CO2 from LULUCF		17 689,93	21 865,98	20 546,81	22 251,55	23 187,26	23 702,55	27 013,44	31 043,36	28,69
Total CO2 emissions excluding net CO2 from LULUCF		53 369,97	54 110,22	55 064,15	55 888,17	55 316,62	52 949,62	52 726,89	51 621,01	-8,24
Memo Items:
International Bunkers		6 696,87	6 525,56	5 715,32	7 086,90	8 274,55	8 575,32	9 145,77	9 612,05	169,77
Aviation		1 926,37	1 870,86	1 611,37	1 566,51	1 771,54	1 935,67	2 006,20	2 194,54	64,37
Marine		4 770,51	4 654,69	4 103,95	5 520,39	6 503,01	6 639,65	7 139,57	7 417,52	232,94
Multilateral Operations		0,32	0,76	0,84	0,76	0,76	1,78	2,73	1,96	3 577,68
CO2 Emissions from Biomass		15 719,35	18 850,32	18 355,08	19 059,18	19 161,07	20 582,31	21 885,54	22 704,30	98,52

132	Annex 2

TABLE 10 EMISSION TRENDS										Inventory 2007
CH4										Submission 2009 v1.1
(Part 1 of 2)											SWEDEN
GREENHOUSE GAS SOURCE AND SINK CATEGORIES		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999
		(Gg)	(Gg)	(Gg)	(Gg)	(Gg)	(Gg)	(Gg)	(Gg)	(Gg)	(Gg)
1. Energy		20,08	20,81	20,88	20,93	21,16	21,49	22,25	20,74	19,42	18,96
A. Fuel Combustion (Sectoral Approach)		19,85	20,58	20,64	20,67	20,89	21,21	21,97	20,46	19,14	18,71
1.	Energy Industries	1,05	1,23	1,08	1,40	1,64	1,80	2,49	2,08	2,21	2,27
2.	Manufacturing Industries and Construction	2,19	2,16	2,50	2,50	2,79	2,71	2,63	2,55	2,55	2,41
3.	Transport	4,99	5,15	4,82	4,28	4,40	4,07	3,90	3,51	3,21	2,95
4.	Other Sectors	11,57	12,00	12,19	12,47	12,03	12,59	12,92	12,28	11,15	11,07
5.	Other	0,05	0,05	0,05	0,04	0,03	0,04	0,03	0,03	0,02	0,02
B. Fugitive Emissions from Fuels		0,23	0,23	0,23	0,26	0,27	0,28	0,28	0,28	0,28	0,25
1.	Solid Fuels	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00
2.	Oil and Natural Gas	0,23	0,23	0,23	0,26	0,26	0,28	0,28	0,28	0,28	0,25
2.	Industrial Processes	0,27	0,29	0,29	0,29	0,30	0,30	0,30	0,31	0,31	0,30
A. Mineral Products		NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
B. Chemical Industry		0,03	0,03	0,03	0,02	0,03	0,03	0,03	0,03	0,03	0,02
C. Metal Production		0,01	0,01	0,01	0,01	0,01	0,01	0,01	0,01	0,00	0,00
D. Other Production		0,24	0,26	0,26	0,27	0,26	0,27	0,26	0,28	0,27	0,28
E. Production of Halocarbons and SF6
F. Consumption of Halocarbons and SF6
G. Other		NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO
3. Solvent and Other Product Use
4.	Agriculture	162,25	158,79	162,79	169,67	171,32	167,19	165,84	165,72	161,21	159,89
A. Enteric Fermentation		145,62	142,52	145,98	150,49	151,99	147,38	145,77	146,09	141,79	140,53
B. Manure Management		16,63	16,27	16,81	19,19	19,33	19,81	20,07	19,63	19,42	19,37
C. Rice Cultivation		NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO
D. Agricultural Soils		NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO
E. Prescribed Burning of Savannas		NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO
F. Field Burning of Agricultural Residues		NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO
G. Other		NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO
5.	Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry	0,08	0,08	0,08	0,08	0,08	0,08	0,08	0,42	0,02	0,14
A. Forest Land		0,07	0,07	0,07	0,07	0,07	0,07	0,07	0,40	0,02	0,14
B. Cropland		IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE
C. Grassland		0,01	0,01	0,01	0,01	0,01	0,01	0,01	0,02	0,00	0,00
D. Wetlands		IE,NE,NO	IE,NE,NO	IE,NE,NO	IE,NE,NO	IE,NE,NO	IE,NE,NO	IE,NE,NO	IE,NE,NO	IE,NE,NO	IE,NE,NO
E. Settlements		IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE
F. Other Land		IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE
G. Other		NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
6. Waste		136,87	138,95	138,99	134,31	128,76	128,42	127,32	126,08	124,02	118,71
A. Solid Waste Disposal on Land		136,87	138,95	138,99	134,31	128,76	128,42	127,32	126,08	124,02	118,71
B. Waste-water Handling		IE,NE,NO	IE,NE,NO	IE,NE,NO	IE,NE,NO	IE,NE,NO	IE,NE,NO	IE,NE,NO	IE,NE,NO	IE,NE,NO	IE,NE,NO
C. Waste Incineration		NE	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
D. Other		NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
7.	Other (as specified in Summary 1.A)	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO
Total CH4 emissions including CH4 from LULUCF		319,56	318,92	323,03	325,30	321,62	317,48	315,80	313,27	304,99	298,01
Total CH4 emissions excluding CH4 from LULUCF		319,47	318,85	322,95	325,22	321,54	317,41	315,72	312,85	304,97	297,87
Memo Items:
International Bunkers		0,02	0,03	0,03	0,03	0,03	0,04	0,03	0,04	0,04	0,04
Aviation		0,01	0,01	0,01	0,01	0,01	0,01	0,01	0,01	0,01	0,01
Marine		0,01	0,02	0,02	0,02	0,02	0,02	0,03	0,03	0,03	0,03
Multilateral Operations		0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00
CO2 Emissions from Biomass

Annex 2	133

TABLE 10 EMISSION TRENDS										Inventory 2007
CH4									Submission 2009 v1.1
(Part 2 of 2)										SWEDEN
										Change
GREENHOUSE GAS SOURCE AND SINK CATEGORIES		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	from 1990
GREENHOUSE GAS SOURCE AND SINK CATEGORIES		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	to 2007
		(Gg)	(Gg)	(Gg)	(Gg)	(Gg)	(Gg)	(Gg)	(Gg)	%
1. Energy		18,25	18,48	18,50	19,05	19,07	19,86	19,56	22,19	10,50
A. Fuel Combustion (Sectoral Approach)		17,99	18,24	18,23	18,82	18,81	19,62	19,29	21,95	10,57
1.	Energy Industries	2,19	2,68	2,82	3,04	3,11	3,41	3,54	3,55	237,07
2.	Manufacturing Industries and Construction	2,02	2,60	2,28	2,12	2,11	2,07	2,33	2,24	2,27
3.	Transport	2,65	2,37	2,24	2,04	1,86	1,77	1,61	1,48	-70,32
4.	Other Sectors	11,11	10,57	10,88	11,61	11,72	12,36	11,80	14,66	26,72
5.	Other	0,01	0,01	0,01	0,01	0,01	0,01	0,01	0,01	-85,01
B. Fugitive Emissions from Fuels		0,25	0,25	0,27	0,23	0,27	0,24	0,27	0,24	5,18
1.	Solid Fuels	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	-28,56
2.	Oil and Natural Gas	0,25	0,24	0,26	0,23	0,26	0,23	0,27	0,24	5,70
2.	Industrial Processes	0,34	0,35	0,34	0,36	0,36	0,35	0,36	0,36	30,85
A. Mineral Products		NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	0,00
B. Chemical Industry		0,03	0,04	0,04	0,04	0,04	0,03	0,04	0,04	42,54
C. Metal Production		0,00	0,01	0,00	0,01	0,01	0,01	0,00	0,00	-32,25
D. Other Production		0,31	0,31	0,30	0,32	0,32	0,32	0,32	0,32	30,97
E. Production of Halocarbons and SF6
F. Consumption of Halocarbons and SF6
G. Other		NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	0,00
3. Solvent and Other Product Use
4.	Agriculture	155,57	156,01	155,08	153,90	155,89	156,04	155,58	152,78	-5,83
A. Enteric Fermentation		137,00	135,56	134,75	132,54	134,50	133,04	133,02	130,29	-10,53
B. Manure Management		18,57	20,45	20,33	21,36	21,39	23,00	22,55	22,50	35,30
C. Rice Cultivation		NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	0,00
D. Agricultural Soils		NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	0,00
E. Prescribed Burning of Savannas		NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	0,00
F. Field Burning of Agricultural Residues		NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	0,00
G. Other		NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	0,00
5.	Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry	0,14	0,14	0,23	0,29	0,26	0,24	0,58	0,11	38,63
A. Forest Land		0,14	0,14	0,22	0,27	0,25	0,23	0,58	0,11	55,19
B. Cropland		IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE	0,00
C. Grassland		0,00	0,01	0,02	0,02	0,01	0,00	0,01	0,00	-72,39
D. Wetlands		IE,NE,NO	IE,NE,NO	IE,NE,NO	IE,NE,NO	IE,NE,NO	IE,NE,NO	IE,NE,NO	IE,NE,NO	0,00
E. Settlements		IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE	0,00
F. Other Land		IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE	0,00
G. Other		NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	0,00
6.	Waste	114,97	112,89	105,43	99,42	98,43	91,55	87,86	79,77	-41,72
A. Solid Waste Disposal on Land		114,97	112,89	105,43	99,42	98,43	91,55	87,86	79,77	-41,72
B. Waste-water Handling		IE,NE,NO	IE,NE,NO	IE,NE,NO	IE,NE,NO	IE,NE,NO	IE,NE,NO	IE,NE,NO	IE,NE,NO	0,00
C. Waste Incineration		NE	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE	0,00
D. Other		NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	0,00
7.	Other (as specified in Summary 1.A)	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	0,00
Total CH4 emissions including CH4 from LULUCF		289,27	287,87	279,58	273,02	274,00	268,04	263,94	255,22	-20,13
Total CH4 emissions excluding CH4 from LULUCF		289,13	287,73	279,35	272,73	273,75	267,80	263,35	255,10	-20,15
Memo Items:
International Bunkers		0,04	0,04	0,04	0,04	0,05	0,05	0,06	0,06	155,73
Aviation		0,01	0,01	0,01	0,01	0,01	0,01	0,01	0,01	-1,66
Marine		0,03	0,03	0,03	0,04	0,05	0,05	0,05	0,05	256,39
Multilateral Operations		0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	1 010,20
CO2 Emissions from Biomass

134	Annex 2

TABLE 10 EMISSION TRENDS										Inventory 2007
N2O										Submission 2009 v1.1
(Part 1 of 2)											SWEDEN
GREENHOUSE GAS SOURCE AND SINK CATEGORIES		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999
		(Gg)	(Gg)	(Gg)	(Gg)	(Gg)	(Gg)	(Gg)	(Gg)	(Gg)	(Gg)
1.	Energy	4,26	4,36	4,37	4,50	4,60	4,63	5,17	4,65	4,60	4,41
A.	Fuel Combustion (Sectoral Approach)	4,21	4,31	4,32	4,45	4,54	4,58	5,11	4,60	4,55	4,35
1.	Energy Industries	1,06	1,15	1,18	1,15	1,21	1,13	1,71	1,18	1,23	1,12
2.	Manufacturing Industries and Construction	1,71	1,75	1,69	1,80	1,91	1,97	1,92	1,93	1,87	1,75
3.	Transport	0,47	0,42	0,50	0,58	0,54	0,61	0,60	0,64	0,62	0,66
4.	Other Sectors	0,89	0,88	0,84	0,84	0,83	0,82	0,83	0,81	0,79	0,79
5.	Other	0,08	0,10	0,11	0,07	0,06	0,05	0,05	0,05	0,04	0,03
B. Fugitive Emissions from Fuels		0,05	0,05	0,05	0,06	0,05	0,06	0,06	0,06	0,05	0,06
1.	Solid Fuels	0,01	0,01	0,01	0,01	0,01	0,01	0,01	0,01	0,01	0,01
2.	Oil and Natural Gas	0,05	0,04	0,05	0,05	0,04	0,05	0,05	0,05	0,05	0,05
2.	Industrial Processes	2,90	3,05	2,94	2,87	2,79	2,58	2,48	2,47	2,74	2,46
A. Mineral Products		NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
B. Chemical Industry		2,68	2,82	2,72	2,64	2,55	2,34	2,25	2,23	2,50	2,22
C. Metal Production		NA	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO
D. Other Production		0,21	0,23	0,23	0,23	0,23	0,23	0,23	0,25	0,24	0,24

E.Production of Halocarbons and SF6

F.Consumption of Halocarbons and SF6

G. Other		NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO
3.	Solvent and Other Product Use	0,29	0,29	0,35	0,35	0,31	0,40	0,44	0,46	0,47	0,43
4.	Agriculture	19,28	18,75	18,49	18,82	19,05	18,67	18,63	18,86	18,63	17,74
A. Enteric Fermentation
B. Manure Management		2,35	2,28	2,34	2,13	2,16	2,05	2,05	2,09	2,09	1,96
C. Rice Cultivation
D. Agricultural Soils		16,93	16,46	16,15	16,70	16,89	16,62	16,58	16,78	16,54	15,78
E. Prescribed Burning of Savannas		NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO
F. Field Burning of Agricultural Residues		NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO
G. Other		NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO
5.	Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry	0,26	0,20	0,17	0,18	0,18	0,21	0,21	0,21	0,21	0,23
A. Forest Land		0,19	0,11	0,08	0,07	0,06	0,07	0,06	0,05	0,05	0,07
B. Cropland		0,07	0,09	0,09	0,11	0,12	0,14	0,15	0,16	0,16	0,16
C. Grassland		0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00
D. Wetlands		IE,NE,NO	IE,NE,NO	IE,NE,NO	IE,NE,NO	IE,NE,NO	IE,NE,NO	IE,NE,NO	IE,NE,NO	IE,NE,NO	IE,NE,NO
E. Settlements		IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE
F. Other Land		IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE
G. Other		NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
6.	Waste	0,63	0,61	0,59	0,59	0,59	0,60	0,57	0,54	0,52	0,49
A. Solid Waste Disposal on Land
B. Waste-water Handling		0,63	0,61	0,59	0,59	0,59	0,60	0,57	0,54	0,52	0,49
C. Waste Incineration		NE	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
D. Other		NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
7.	Other (as specified in Summary 1.A)	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO
Total N2O emissions including N2O from LULUCF		27,61	27,25	26,90	27,31	27,51	27,09	27,50	27,20	27,16	25,76
Total N2O emissions excluding N2O from LULUCF		27,36	27,05	26,73	27,13	27,32	26,88	27,29	26,99	26,95	25,53
Memo Items:
International Bunkers		0,17	0,18	0,20	0,21	0,24	0,24	0,26	0,29	0,33	0,33
Aviation		0,05	0,05	0,04	0,05	0,06	0,06	0,06	0,07	0,07	0,08
Marine		0,12	0,14	0,16	0,16	0,19	0,18	0,19	0,23	0,26	0,25
Multilateral Operations		0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00
CO2 Emissions from Biomass

Annex 2	135

TABLE 10 EMISSION TRENDS										Inventory 2007
N2O									Submission 2009 v1.1
(Part 2 of 2)										SWEDEN
										Change
GREENHOUSE GAS SOURCE AND SINK CATEGORIES		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	from 1990
GREENHOUSE GAS SOURCE AND SINK CATEGORIES		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	to 2007
		(Gg)	(Gg)	(Gg)	(Gg)	(Gg)	(Gg)	(Gg)	(Gg)	%
1.	Energy	4,30	4,40	4,41	4,52	4,41	4,33	4,42	4,35	2,16
A. Fuel Combustion (Sectoral Approach)		4,24	4,34	4,36	4,46	4,36	4,28	4,37	4,30	2,20
1.	Energy Industries	1,00	1,15	1,23	1,40	1,33	1,30	1,36	1,31	23,70
2.	Manufacturing Industries and Construction	1,72	1,78	1,73	1,65	1,64	1,62	1,72	1,65	-3,05
3.	Transport	0,68	0,63	0,62	0,60	0,59	0,58	0,54	0,53	12,71
4.	Other Sectors	0,80	0,77	0,76	0,79	0,78	0,77	0,73	0,79	-11,20
5.	Other	0,03	0,02	0,02	0,02	0,02	0,01	0,02	0,02	-79,74
B. Fugitive Emissions from Fuels		0,06	0,05	0,05	0,05	0,06	0,05	0,06	0,05	-1,50
1.	Solid Fuels	0,01	0,01	0,01	0,01	0,01	0,00	0,01	0,01	-28,56
2.	Oil and Natural Gas	0,05	0,05	0,04	0,05	0,05	0,05	0,05	0,05	2,61
2.	Industrial Processes	2,38	1,86	1,74	1,72	1,71	1,72	1,78	1,09	-62,30
A. Mineral Products		NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	0,00
B. Chemical Industry		2,11	1,59	1,48	1,44	1,43	1,45	1,50	0,81	-69,67
C. Metal Production		NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	0,00
D. Other Production		0,27	0,27	0,27	0,28	0,28	0,28	0,28	0,28	30,24

E.Production of Halocarbons and SF6

F.Consumption of Halocarbons and SF6

G. Other		NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	0,00
3.	Solvent and Other Product Use	0,39	0,38	0,41	0,44	0,47	0,44	0,42	0,42	45,51
4.	Agriculture	17,68	17,67	17,52	17,29	17,31	17,02	16,89	16,85	-12,61
A. Enteric Fermentation
B. Manure Management		1,92	1,78	1,78	1,68	1,70	1,58	1,57	1,54	-34,29
C. Rice Cultivation
D. Agricultural Soils		15,76	15,89	15,75	15,61	15,61	15,44	15,32	15,30	-9,60
E. Prescribed Burning of Savannas		NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	0,00
F. Field Burning of Agricultural Residues		NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	0,00
G. Other		NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	0,00
5.	Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry	0,24	0,24	0,24	0,26	0,29	0,33	0,37	0,37	45,87
A. Forest Land		0,06	0,05	0,04	0,05	0,06	0,08	0,09	0,12	-35,44
B. Cropland		0,17	0,19	0,20	0,22	0,24	0,25	0,28	0,25	261,43
C. Grassland		0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	-72,39
D. Wetlands		IE,NE,NO	IE,NE,NO	IE,NE,NO	IE,NE,NO	IE,NE,NO	IE,NE,NO	IE,NE,NO	IE,NE,NO	0,00
E. Settlements		IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE	0,00
F. Other Land		IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE	IE,NE	0,00
G. Other		NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	0,00
6.	Waste	0,47	0,46	0,45	0,45	0,44	0,45	0,45	0,45	-28,86
A. Solid Waste Disposal on Land
B. Waste-water Handling		0,47	0,46	0,45	0,45	0,44	0,45	0,45	0,45	-28,86
C. Waste Incineration		NE	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE	0,00
D. Other		NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	0,00
7.	Other (as specified in Summary 1.A)	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	0,00
Total N2O emissions including N2O from LULUCF		25,46	25,00	24,77	24,67	24,64	24,30	24,34	23,54	-14,76
Total N2O emissions excluding N2O from LULUCF		25,22	24,76	24,53	24,41	24,35	23,97	23,97	23,16	-15,33
Memo Items:
International Bunkers		0,33	0,32	0,28	0,35	0,40	0,42	0,45	0,47	172,16
Aviation		0,08	0,08	0,07	0,07	0,07	0,08	0,08	0,09	63,42
Marine		0,25	0,24	0,21	0,28	0,33	0,34	0,37	0,38	221,73
Multilateral Operations		0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	3 887,04
CO2 Emissions from Biomass

136	Annex 2

TABLE 10 EMISSION TRENDS										Inventory 2007
HFCs, PFCs and SF6										Submission 2009 v1.1
(Part 1 of 2)											SWEDEN
GREENHOUSE GAS SOURCE AND SINK CATEGORIES		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999
		(Gg)	(Gg)	(Gg)	(Gg)	(Gg)	(Gg)	(Gg)	(Gg)	(Gg)	(Gg)
Emissions of HFCs -	(Gg CO2 equivalent)	3,85	7,94	10,12	29,66	72,73	127,13	205,35	313,40	386,42	489,45
HFC-23		NA,NO	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00
HFC-32		NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00
HFC-41		NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO
HFC-43-10mee		NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO
HFC-125		NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,01	0,01	0,01	0,01
HFC-134		NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO
HFC-134a		0,00	0,01	0,01	0,02	0,04	0,07	0,12	0,18	0,23	0,30
HFC-152a		NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,06	0,15	0,14	0,14
HFC-143		NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO
HFC-143a		NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,01	0,01	0,01	0,01
HFC-227ea		NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO
HFC-236fa		NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO
HFC-245ca		NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO
Unspecified mix of listed HFCs - (Gg CO2 equivalent)		NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO
Emissions of PFCs - (Gg CO2 equivalent)		376,82	380,25	252,42	290,97	311,73	343,43	302,91	279,69	271,86	291,29
CF4		0,05	0,05	0,04	0,04	0,04	0,05	0,04	0,04	0,04	0,04
C2F6		0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00
C 3F8		NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00
C4F10		NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO
c-C4F8		NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO
C5F12		NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO
C6F14		NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO
Unspecified mix of listed PFCs - (Gg CO2 equivalent)		NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO
Emissions of SF6 -	(Gg CO2 equivalent)	107,49	108,51	108,40	96,66	100,20	126,68	108,40	153,10	99,38	101,65
SF6		0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,01	0,00	0,01	0,00	0,00
TABLE 10 EMISSION TRENDS										Inventory 2007
HFCs, PFCs and SF6										Submission 2009 v1.1
(Part 2 of 2)											SWEDEN
											Change
GREENHOUSE GAS SOURCE AND SINK CATEGORIES		2000	2001	2002	2003		2004	2005	2006	2007	from 1990
GREENHOUSE GAS SOURCE AND SINK CATEGORIES		2000	2001	2002	2003		2004	2005	2006	2007	to 2007
		(Gg)	(Gg)	(Gg)	(Gg)		(Gg)	(Gg)	(Gg)	(Gg)	%
Emissions of HFCs - (Gg CO2 equivalent)		564,63	611,88	664,27	709,46		769,68	796,94	825,63	855,34	22 145,32
HFC-23		0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00		0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	100,00
HFC-32		0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00		0,00	0,00	0,00	0,01	100,00
HFC-41		NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO		NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	0,00
HFC-43-10mee		NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO		NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	0,00
HFC-125		0,02	0,02	0,02	0,02		0,02	0,02	0,02	0,03	100,00
HFC-134		NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO		NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	0,00
HFC-134a		0,34	0,37	0,40	0,42		0,47	0,48	0,50	0,52	17 453,63
HFC-152a		0,15	0,18	0,15	0,22		0,20	0,21	0,23	0,22	100,00
HFC-143		NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO		NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	0,00
HFC-143a		0,01	0,01	0,02	0,02		0,02	0,02	0,02	0,02	100,00
HFC-227ea		NA,NO	0,00	0,00	0,00		0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	100,00
HFC-236fa		NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO		NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	0,00
HFC-245ca		NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO		NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	0,00
Unspecified mix of listed HFCs - (Gg CO2 equivalent)		NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO		NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	0,00
Emissions of PFCs -	(Gg CO2 equivalent)	240,52	235,61	260,91	258,30		253,98	257,15	245,32	247,60	-34,29
CF4		0,03	0,03	0,04	0,04		0,04	0,04	0,04	0,04	-33,77
C2F6		0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00		0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	-47,24
C 3F8		0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00		0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	100,00
C4F10		NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO		NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	0,00
c-C4F8		NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO		NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	0,00
C5F12		NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO		NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	0,00
C6F14		NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO		NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	0,00
Unspecified mix of listed PFCs - (Gg CO2 equivalent)		NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO		NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	NA,NO	0,00
Emissions of SF6 -	(Gg CO2 equivalent)	93,59	111,49	103,85	68,88		81,21	142,48	111,31	150,43	39,95
SF6		0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00		0,00	0,01	0,00	0,01	39,95

Annex 2	137

Annex 3:

The national system

In accordance with the Kyoto Protocol and its associated Decision 20/CP71, and the EU Decision (280/2004/EC) concerning a mechanism for moni- toring greenhouse gas emissions, Sweden has built up a national system for the inventory and reporting of greenhouse gas emissions and removals. The national system came into effect on 1 January 2006 and is de- scribed in detail in Sweden’s annual National Invento- ry Report, which is sent to the UNFCCC Secretariat.

Name and contact information of responsible organisation

Ministry of the Environment Contact person: Sandra Pettersson

Address: 103 33 Stockholm, SWEDEN

E-mail: sandra.pettersson@environment.ministry.se

Organisational structure and roles and responsibilities of various government agencies

In order to establish the annual inventory report and other reporting, there is cooperation between the Ministry of the Environment, the Swedish Environ- mental Protection Agency, government agencies and consultants.

Organisation of national system

The Ministry of the Environment is responsible for the national system and for Sweden reporting in ac- cordance with stated international requirements in the area of climate change. The Swedish Environ- mental Protection Agency is responsible, on behalf of the Ministry of the Environment, for producing material for the required reporting. The Swedish Environmental Protection Agency is thus responsi- ble for coordinating the national system for Swedish climate reporting and for maintaining the reporting system required for reporting.

On behalf of the Swedish Environmental Protec- tion Agency, consultants (SMED2) process material received from the various government agencies and data they have produced themselves and carry out calculations of Swedish greenhouse gas emissions and removals.

Various government agencies take part in the na- tional system (see figure above) and are responsi- ble for different parts of the inventory process. The Swedish Energy Agency also takes part by providing figures on the use of flexible mechanisms and figures from the national registry.

Swedish Board of Agriculture
Swedish International Development
Cooperation Agency
Swedish Chemicals Agency			Consultant
Statistics Sweden
Swedish University
of Agricultural Sciences
Swedish Energy Agency
Swedish Energy Agency
Swedish Rail Administration			Swedish EPA
Swedish Rail Administration			Swedish EPA
Swedish Maritime Administration
Swedish Road Administration
Swedish Institute for Transport
and Communication Analysis
Swedish Meteorological
and Hydrological Institute
Swedish Armed Forces
Swedish Transport Agency
Swedish Forest Agency

1 UNFCCC. 2002. FCCC/CP/2001/13/Add.3.

UNFCCC Secretariat

Ministry of Environment

European Commission

2 SMED is a consortium known in full as Svenska MiljöEmissionsData and comprises Statistics Sweden (SCB), the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute (IVL) and the Swedish Univer- sity of Agricultural Sciences (SLU).

138	Annex 3

Legal structure

The legal basis for the national system is provided by an “Ordinance (2005:626) Concerning Climate Reporting”. Under this ordinance, the Swedish En- vironmental Protection Agency has specific respon- sibilities for coordinating national work for Swedish climate reporting and for maintaining the national system. The responsibilities of various government agencies who are to take part in the national system are also specified in the ordinance.

The legal responsibility of SMED (the consult- ants) is described in a framework contract between the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency and SMED.

There is also legislation in Sweden that indirect- ly supports climate-reporting work by providing a basis for the calculation of greenhouse gas emissions and removals. Environmental reports are submit- ted under the Environmental Code (1998:808), and the Official Statistics Act (SFS 2001:99) imposes an obligation to submit annual figures. In addition, the government agencies are obliged to comply with the Secrecy Act (1980:100) and to archive documents in accordance with the Archives Act (1990:782).

Procedural arrangements

The Swedish inventory and reporting are carried out annually by following a particular procedure. There is a plan of activity for the annual process which de- scribes all activities that must be performed during the inventory and reporting in order to maintain a high level of quality.

Data are supplied from the government agencies to SMED, and on behalf of the Swedish Environ- mental Protection Agency SMED also gathers infor- mation from various businesses and organisations. Calculations are performed by SMED and then un- dergo quality assurance and review. SMED supplies data, including the inventory report, to the Swed- ish Environmental Protection Agency, and a national peer review is then conducted. The report is sent to the Ministry of the Environment in good time before the applicable reporting date for preparation and onward reporting to the European Commission and UNFCCC.

Collection of activity data and choice of calculation methods

Activity data are supplied from government agen- cies to SMED, which also collects activity data from various businesses and industry organisations, as well as environmental reports. Emission factors may be installation-specific, established at national level or

standard factors from the IPCC. The methods for calculating emissions are in agreement with current requirements and guidelines.

Analysis of priority emission sources

In accordance with IPCC Good Practice Guidance, Chapter 7, the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency, supported by SMED, conducts an annual analysis to identify the emission sources to which priority should be accorded in the inventory work.

The quality system

The national system has to safeguard the level of quality in the inventory, that is to say ensure trans- parency, consistency, comparability, completeness and accuracy in the inventory. The Swedish quality system is based on the structure described in UN- FCCC Decision 20/CP7. The Swedish Environmen- tal Protection Agency has established an overarch- ing quality plan. This quality plan forms part of the internal quality systems of the consultants and gov- ernment agencies. The quality plan is updated con- tinuously and revised after the annual inventory and reporting have been carried out.

The government agencies which take part in cli- mate-reporting activity have to develop and main- tain a quality system for the annual inventory and reporting in accordance with specified requirements.

The Swedish Environmental Protection Agency is responsible for conducting a peer review at national level in cooperation with affected government agen- cies, according to the routines established for this purpose. This review takes place annually when the inventory has been carried out, and covers the cal- culations performed and assumptions on which the calculations are based.

There are documented routines for the expert peer review at international level. Affected government agencies and consultants are available to answer any questions.

Approval of the inventory

The Swedish Environmental Protection Agency sends the climate reporting to the Ministry of the Environment for preparation at least 20 working days before the applicable reporting date. The cli- mate report is sent to affected ministries in the Swedish Government Offices to canvas their views, which are collated, and when the climate report has been approved by the Ministry of the Environment it is sent to the European Commission and the UN- FCCC Secretariat.

Annex 3	139

Annex 4:

The national registry

Registry administrator

Name: Titti Norlin	Country: Sweden
Address: Box 310	Phone: +46 (0)16 544 22 73
Postcode: SE-631 04	Facsimile number: +46 (0)16 544 2099
City: Eskilstuna	E-mail: titti.norlin@energimyndigheten.se

The Swedish national registry has been established as a Swedish registry and not as part of a consoli- dated transboundary registry. Sweden purchases the registry software under licence together with Nor- way, Estonia, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Lithuania, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom and the UK De- partment of Energy and Climate Change (DECC).

The Swedish national registry for emissions trad- ing (SUS – Svenskt utsläppsrättssystem (Swedish emission allowances system) was established at the Swedish Energy Agency in 2005 under the Euro- pean Commission’s Registry Regulation, and until September 2008 was directly linked to the CITL (Community Independent Transaction Log), which has been developed and is managed by the European Community.

The Swedish registry is adapted in accordance with the technical standards on data exchange of the UN and the European Commission (UNFCCC Data Exchange Standard (DES ver 1.1.1) and Com- mission Registry Regulation (No 2216/2004 and No 916/2007)) specified for the Kyoto Protocol, and has advanced functions for issuing, external transactions, cancellation, redemption and comparison (reconcili- ation) of data with the UN’s independent transaction log (ITL). The software has passed tests of interop- erability in relation to the test environments of both CITL and ITL. On 16 October 2008 all registries established within the EU Emission Trading Scheme completed a direct link-up to the UN’s independent transaction log (ITL). This enabled transfers of inter- national emission units (assigned amount units) and reduction units (certified emission reductions and

emission reduction units) between registries operat- ing under the Kyoto Protocol.

The Swedish registry consists of a normalised rela- tional database. All calls are made through what are known as stored procedures. MS SQL Server 2000 is used as the database manager. The system is run in a virtual server environment, which makes it possi- ble to dynamically expand the capacity of the server when required.

The capacity of the servers is over-sized so that there is no risk of insufficient capacity. To ensure, maintain and re-use data with the aim of guar- anteeing integrity of storage, the Swedish Energy Agency uses IBM’s Tivoli Storage Manager (TSM) for backup, restoring and archiving. The TSM server and its tape robot are located around 10 km from the Agency building and are connected by a fibre-optic cable. The TSM server makes routine backups every night. Virtual servers are arranged in a farm of mul- tiple physical servers. In the event of maintenance of the physical hardware, virtual servers can be moved to another physical server in real time. It is thus pos- sible to balance the utilisation of physical servers by moving around virtual servers on different physical servers.

The national registry is adapted to the data ex- change standard (DES) between registry systems with the aim of ensuring correct, transparent and ef- ficient exchange of data between national registries, the registry for the clean development mechanism and the transaction log (Decision 19/CP.7, para- graph 1). The European Commission in June 2008 approved a new software version of the Swedish reg- istry for operation in accordance with DES#7. The Swedish registry fulfils all requirements for proce- dures to minimise discrepancies in issuing, transac- tions, acquisition, cancellation and redemption of ERUs, CERs, AAUs or RMUs. The registry also fulfils

140	Annex 4

the requirements for the termination of a transaction where a discrepancy has been discovered and the possibility of corrections in the event of failed ter- mination of a transaction.The processes are only car- ried out by three authorised officers at the Swedish Energy Agency. The registry administrator is respon- sible for the work being carried out correctly and approves activities in the registry. To minimise the risk of inconsistent data in the registries of the Swed- ish Energy Agency and CITL, a transaction always takes place according to the requirements contained in DES. A transaction is not concluded until both registries have received acknowledgement that the transaction is registered on the server concerned. If a transaction which is initiated in the Swedish regis- try contains a non-conformity, this will be identified by CITL sending a message with an error code. If an error code is sent, the transaction is terminated in the registry. An error message is presented to the person who initiated the transaction. If the registry fails to terminate the transaction, the registry administrator notifies the central administrator, with the aim of ob- taining instructions for any action to be taken. The registry administrator can carry out manual correc- tions on behalf of the central administrator at ITL or CITL.

The Swedish Energy Agency’s IT environment in- cluding routines meets the requirements stated in the Kyoto Protocol for a national registry. Prior to the link-up to ITL, the European Commission approved SUS through tests performed in June 2008. SUS also assisted in a full-scale run-through of the link-up over the period 18 July – 4 August 2008. Documen- tation on the functionality of the registry was sent to the ITL administrator in August 2008. SUS was ap- proved for link-up to ITL by the ITL administrator on 29 August 2008. A prior check on communica- tion between SUS and ITL was conducted in Sep- tember 2008.

A new version of the software entered service at the end of September 2008. The purpose of the new version was to make it possible to cancel the emis- sion allowances from the period 2005-2007 that were still on the account in the registry. The ver- sion containing all the functionalities required under the Kyoto Protocol was implemented in conjunction with the link-up.

The Swedish Energy Agency requires log-in with electronic identification to the national registry (Bank ID, VeriSign PTA or SmartTrust), which signifies a higher level of security than is prescribed by the Reg- istry Regulation. Security is also kept at a high level by SiriusIT being responsible for validation.

The Swedish registry publishes the information specified in Annex XVI of the Registry Regulation at www.utslappshandel. se1. The Internet address of the Swedish registry is http://www1.stem.se/etjan- ster.

1http://www.energimyndigheten.se/sv/Foretag/Utslappshandel/Om-SUS/Registerutdrag- ur-SUS--/.

Annex 4	141

Annex 5:

Projection methodology and basis of calculation

Methodology

Different projection methods are used for different sectors. The methods which have been used to draw up the projections in this report are described in this section.

Projections for carbon dioxide emissions from the energy sector are calculated on the basis of projec- tions for energy use in the energy sector. Carbon dioxide emissions are obtained by multiplying the consumption of each fuel by emission factors. The energy projections, together with expert assessments of future emission factors, have provided the basis for the projections of methane and nitrous oxide from combustion installations in the energy sector.

Different models are used for each sub-sector in drawing up projections of trends in the energy system

. The MARKAL-Nordic model is used to make projections for the whole energy system exclud- ing transport. Demand in the sub-sectors, taxes and other policy instruments, fuel prices and economic and technical development are used as input data for MARKAL-Nordic. MARKAL is a dynamic optimisa- tion model. Most of the methods and models used to project development in the energy system are based on a bottom-up perspective. The work takes place in an iterative process where model results for dif-

ferent sub-sectors are coordinated so that weighted projections for the whole energy system are finally obtained. The process is described in Figure B.5.1. Expert assessments are an important element at all stages in the process.

An important starting point in the work on the de- velopment of the energy system in the short and long term is assumptions on economic development, both in Sweden and internationally. The variables includ- ed in work on energy projections principally consist of estimates of the growth in gross domestic product, private and public consumption, disposable income and development in industry and commerce. Esti- mates of economic development at the level of indi- vidual industries are included in the area of industry.

The projections for economic development are prepared using a general equilibrium model, EMEC, by the National Institute of Economic Research.The economic growth generated by the EMEC model is governed firstly by access to production factors such as labour and capital and secondly by techni- cal development, which are given exogenically in the model. The Swedish Energy Agency’s assump- tions on energy prices are also used as input data in the EMEC model. The advantage in using this type of model is that it encompasses the whole economy.

Scenarios

Economic

- Electricity price

User sector

Supply projections:

Energy balances

Political

assumptions

(MARKAL-Nordic,

projections:

- Electricity

- Emission

framework

(EMEC)

PoMo)

- Industry

- District heating

calculations

Fuel prices

- District heating

- Transport

- Fuels

price

- Residential

(MARKAL-Nordic)

and service (DoS)

Figure B.5.1 The projection process for emissions from the energy sector. Models used are shown in brackets.

142	Annex 5

The model is therefore able to capture repercussions between sectors, for example a change of tax or the introduction of emission caps. The total socio-eco- nomic impact is therefore captured in a more com- plete way than in partial models.

Another important point of departure for projec- tions on development in the energy system is the trend in fuel prices. A model is used to convert in- ternational fossil-fuel prices for crude oil and coal to domestic user prices paid by the final customer, as crude oil has to be refined into finished vehicle fuels and fuels for heating before it can be used on the Swedish market. The results of the model are do- mestic future fuel prices for fuel oil 1 (light fuel oil, domestic heating oil), fuel oil 5 (heavy fuel oil), coal, LPG, petrol and diesel for different types of custom- ers.Applicable taxes and VAT are then applied to the fuel and customer category concerned. The estima- tion of future natural gas prices is based on the Eu- ropean import price for natural gas. Biofuel prices are calculated using historical series from 1995 to 2007, together with analyses of future demand for and supply of biofuel based on other projection as- sumptions. The trend in biofuel prices is assumed, with the exception of prices for liquid vehicle bio- fuels, to be dependent on demand in the Swedish energy system.

The projections on using fuels for electricity and dis- trict-heating production are based on the MARKAL- Nordic model.The future need for energy represents exogenic data for the model which, through its op- timisation algorithm, works out the most cost-effec- tive fuel and energy mix that meets the energy need in the whole stationary energy system. MARKAL- Nordic represents the other Nordic countries (ex- cluding Iceland) and permits electricity trading be- tween neighbouring countries. Not just the Swedish energy system but the Nordic energy system is there- fore optimised.

The projections of energy use in the residential and service sector are prepared by combining the model results from the DoS model (Demand and Supply model), MARKAL-Nordic and assessments by industry experts. The DoS model is a bottom-up model which produces projections on the basis of assumptions on such things as electricity and fuel prices, economic development, population devel- opment, potential for different heating systems, in- vestment costs of heating systems, levels of efficien- cy and energy efficiency improvement. The strength of the model is that, on the basis of very detailed information on energy use in the sector and on the trend in influencing factors of decisive significance

to the sector, it provides projections of energy use which are consistent with the trend in these influ- encing factors.

The projections on the energy use of the industrial sector come from an Excel-based bottom-up model, economic conditions and assumed energy prices. This result is harmonised through contacts with en- ergy-intensive companies and industry organisations. Account is also taken of the results from the energy system model MARKAL-Nordic, which uses the projections on industrial energy use as input.

The projections on carbon dioxide emissions from the transport sector are calculated on the basis of projections of energy use in the transport sector. The calculation of emissions of other greenhouse gases is based on the change in transport activity, number of vehicles in different vehicle types (e.g. those fitted with a catalytic converter) and emissions factors.The transport sector has been divided into four sub-sec- tors: road traffic, aviation, rail traffic and shipping. The projections for all types of transport have been calculated on the basis of present-day energy use.

The projection for petrol use has been calculated using a bottom-up model that calculates total petrol use based on an assumption on the composition of the car fleet. The Swedish Road Administration’s projec- tions for the vehicle fleet, in which new car sales and fuel efficiency are calculated for each year of projec- tion, are used as input for the model. This model has also been used for projections on the fuel use of diesel cars. The projections on other diesel use have been made using a top-down demand model. The model includes assumptions on the price of diesel, trends in various industries and technical development.

The carbon dioxide emissions of industrial processes have been calculated using Excel-based trend analy- sis of historical emissions and based on the growth projections used in the industrial combustion sector.

Emissions from landfills in the waste sector are cal- culated using a model developed by the IPCC which has been partially modified so that it fits Swedish conditions better. The results of the model calcula- tions are also compared with results of field meas- urements. The method is based on figures on quanti- ties of landfilled waste from 1952, the organic con- tent of the waste, the gas potentials of different types of waste and emission factors.

The same method has been used to calculate emis- sions in the projections for the agriculture sector as is used when historical emissions are presented. The emissions are calculated using specific emission factors and activity data in the form of figures relating to num- bers of livestock, manure production, housing period,

Annex 5	143

method of mature management and annual balances of nitrogen flows to and from agricultural land. The projections for activity data are based on results from the SASM model, which makes assumptions regarding productivity and future agricultural policy.

The projections for net removals in the Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry sector are analysed using the Hugin calculation system, which simulates the future development of the forests on the basis of assumptions regarding how they are managed and exploited over a hundred-year period. In Hugin, sus- tainable logging is estimated as mean values per year for ten-year periods (2005-2014, 2015-2024, etc.). The total carbon stock is calculated for the first year of each such period. Net removal is calculated in the projections as the difference between stocks at dif- ferent times. The calculations encompass biomass in living trees on forest soil. Trends are extrapolated for other types of ownership and carbon pools.

Assumptions underlying calculation

Assumptions underlying calculation for the energy sector

General assumptions made in calculation for the energy sector

The general assumptions made in calculations for the whole energy and transport sector are presented below. Specific assumptions made for each sub-sec- tor are then presented for the sector concerned.

•Nuclear power plants are assumed to have a life of 60 years, which means that no reactors are decom- missioned during the projection period.

•A price of emission allowances of 30 euros per tonne of carbon dioxide in the EU Emissions Trad- ing Scheme has been assumed throughout the projection period up to 2020.

•It has been assumed on the basis of current deci- sions on the electricity certificate system that the system will remain in force throughout the pro- jection period and will lead to 17 TWh of new renewable electricity production in 2016 in com- parison with the 2002 level. This level is assumed to persist through to 2020.

•Current taxes and other policy instruments in 2008 are otherwise assumed to remain until 2020.

National Institute of Economic Research estimation of economic development* (development in %/year)

	2005-2010	2010-2020	2005-2020

GDP	2.6	2.1	2.3

Private consumption	2.5	3.2	2.9

Exports	5.9	4.9	5.3

Imports	6.5	5.6	5.9

* The assessment was made before the economic downturn of 2008.

Swedish Energy Agency estimates for the trend in fossil fuel prices, current prices:

	2005	2007	2010-2020

Crude oil (USD/barrel)	54.4	72.2	90

Coal (USD/tonne)	61.1	88.8	96

Natural gas (USD/Mbtu)	6.0	8.6	9.2

Swedish Energy Agency estimates for the price trend for biofuels and waste: (Prices in SEK/MWh (2005 price level))

	2005	2010	2020

Solid forest-industry by-products	95-121	130-145	180-196

Forest chips	135-165	159-201	206-252

Short-rotation forest	137	165	217

Processed wood fuels	204	249	328

Recycled wood	80	83	96

Combustible waste	-150-0	-150-0	-150-0

Peat	112	100	119

The projections are based on normal production, and no account has been taken of changes due to future climate effects.

Assumptions underlying calculation for energy industries

Swedish area price for electricity i 2005 and for the pro- jection years 2010, 2015 and 2020. Annual average, 2005 price level (SEK/kWh).

Year	2005	2010	2015	2020

Electricity price	27.2	48	47	47

Electricity production from hydropower (incl. small- scale hydropower) and nuclear power has been as- sumed to be (kWh):

	2005	2010	2020
Hydropower production	72.2	67.5	68.0
Nuclear power production	69.5	68	72.4

•Emissions for the refineries sector are estimated to increase by 2015 in accordance with the in- dustry’s plans for expansion. An increase in emis- sions has been assumed for the period 2015-2020 which is in line with the economic trend for the petrochemical industry according to the National Institute of Economic Research estimate of 1.25 per cent growth per year.

Assumptions underlying calculation for industrial combustion

The projections on industrial combustion are based on assumptions on production trends in particu- lar industries, the extent of energy efficiencies and trends in energy prices.

144	Annex 5

Annual percentage change in added value for individ- ual industries between 2005 and 2010 and between 2010 and 2020 according to National Institute of Eco- nomic Research estimates.

	Ann. % change	Ann. % change
	2005-2010	2010-2020
Pulp and paper industry	0.64	1.5
Chemical industry	2.2	2.85
Iron and steel industry	2.23	2.1
Earth and stone industry	2.42	2.1
Metalworks	0.8	2.35
Engineering industry	4.5	4.36
Mining and minerals	1.97	1.69
Pharmaceutical industry	2.2	2.86
Other manufacturing industr	1.04	2.1

•The projections are based on existing policy in- struments which are assumed to apply through- out the projection period.

•The baseline year for the projections is 2005. Growth in 2006-2007 is only partially includ- ed in the estimates for the projection years. The emissions in absolute terms may therefore be lower still, for example for the pulp and paper industry, although the trend is regarded as rea- sonable.

Assumptions underlying calculation for residential and service sector

The projections on energy use in the residential and service sector are based on assumptions on tempera- ture conditions, population trend, the stock of hous- ing and commercial premises, energy prices, invest- ment costs, technological development and econom- ic development.

Assumptions on numbers of homes and commercial premises and population trend

	Unit	2005	2010	2020
Individual houses	thousands	1 777 000	1 845 000	1 970 000
Apartments	thousands	2 490 000	2 592 000	2 778 000
Commercial premises	million m2	165	170	180
Population	millions	9	9.4	9.7

•The proportion of individual houses in new con- struction is estimated at 40 per cent and the pro- portion of apartments in multi-dwelling build- ings at 60 per cent. Individual houses are assumed principally to install electric heating, including heat pumps, while multi-dwelling buildings are assumed primarily to install district heating.

•The projections for the residential and service sec- tor have been subjected to normal-year correction, while the historical emissions are actual emissions. Consequently, as recent years have been warmer than normal the projections are somewhat high in relation to the historical time series.

Assumptions underlying calculation for the transport sector

•Projections for the trend in transport are based on economic development and social development in general. Projections for passenger transport are also based on assumptions on private consump- tion and fuel prices. Projections for freight trans- port are principally affected by how industry and commerce develop and are based on industrial production, exports and imports, broken down into different industries.

•The calculations are based on existing decisions on policy instruments, and these policy instruments are assumed to apply throughout the projection period.

•The assumptions for road traffic contain assump- tions on the trend in fuel prices, technical devel- opment for vehicles, improved efficiency of fuel use and the introduction of renewable fuels.

New car sales for the projection period have been calculated using a model based on fuel price, histori- cal trend and estimation of the future car supply.The principal trend over the period is for the proportion of diesel cars and cars that can run on biofuels to in- crease in the vehicle fleet, while the proportion of cars running on petrol declines.

Fuel prices, SEK/litre, incl. energy and environmental taxes (incl. VAT)

Fuel	2005	2010	2020
Petrol. env. class 1	8.91	10.27	10.27
Diesel. env. class 1	8.39	10.37	10.37

•The price of ethanol (E85) is assumed to be lower than the price of petrol in terms of litres of petrol equivalent over most of the projection period.

•Only fuels currently on the market are included in the projections.

•During the projection years it is assumed that 93 per cent of all petrol contains 5 per cent low-blend ethanol and that 85 per cent of all diesel contains 5 per cent FAME.

•Some improvement in efficiency takes place dur- ing the projection period with regard to the use of aviation fuel.

•The proportion of domestic aviation was 26 per cent in 2005. The proportion of domestic aviation in 2020 has been assumed to be 17 per cent.

Annex 5	145

Assumptions underlying calculation for industrial processes

The projections are based on assumptions on pro- duction trends in individual industries and, in part, on extrapolations from historical trends. The as- sumptions on future growth in production are the same as for industrial combustion.

Assumptions underlying calculation for solvent and other product use

The projections for solvent and other product use are based among other things on assumptions on the use of solvents for different products and the carbon content of solvents.

Assumptions from 2007 to 2030

Code		Solvents	Carbon content of solvents

3A Paints		-5%	-10%
3B	Dry-cleaning etc.	Unchanged	Unchanged
3C	Chemical products	-5%	Unchanged
3.D.5 Leather industry		Unchanged	-10%
3.D.5 Printing		-5%	-10%
3.D.5 Textile treatment		Unchanged	Unchanged
3.D.5 Pressure impregnation		Unchanged	Unchanged
3.D.5 Other		-5%	-10%

Assumptions underlying calculation for the agricultural sector

The projections are based in part on the results of analyses of what the situation will be like in 2020 with present-day agricultural policy and assuming that the OECD price forecasts for agricultural prod- ucts are correct. The analyses have been made using the SASM model.

•Input prices are assumed to be unchanged in real terms

•Assumed oil price: 100 dollars per barrel

Assumed change in productivity:

Increase in return per year:

Cereals	+0.5% per ha
Milk	+1.5% per dairy cow
Pigs	+1.5% per sow
Use of inputs:
Labour	-2% per year
Other inputs	-1% per year

•No direct measures against greenhouse gas emis- sions have been included, but indirect effects of reduced emissions of substances which cause eu- trophication and acidification have.

•The trend for an increasing proportion of slurry management is assumed to continue for pigs and dairy cows, and a slightly prolonged grazing period

is assumed for cattle. For other types of livestock, both grazing period and manure management sys- tems are assumed to remain unchanged in com- parison with 2000.

Assumptions underlying calculation for the waste sector

The projections are based on the existing instru- ments for reduced landfilling of organic waste, such as the prohibition of landfilling and landfill tax, and has then been calculated partly on the basis of es- timates of future quantities of landfilled waste, the emergence of alternative treatment capacity and fu- ture efficiency in gas recovery at landfills1.

Assumptions underlying calculation for LULUCF

The projections for changes in living biomass in productive forest land have been made using the HUGIN model, which is structured to describe the future development of the forests under specified as- sumptions on future forest management.

•Logging is assumed to be at the maximum lev- el possible without reducing the timber stock in the future. Over the period 2010-2030 it is as- sumed that logging can total 95 million cubic me- tres standing volume per year. Logging over the period 2004-2009 averaged around 81 million cu- bic metres standing volume excluding the loss of timber directly attributable to a severe storm in 2005. If the effects of the storm are included, the level of logging becomes 90 million cubic metres standing volume.

•The scenario principally assumes continued forest management similar to that which applied at the beginning of the 2000s.

•956 000 ha is set aside for nature reserves, and 2 030 000 ha has been set aside for various forms of nature conservation. No logging takes place here. No other measures are included in the pro- jections.

•The climate effect included in the calculations is based on Sweclim’s B2 scenario. The effect pro- vides an addition to annual growth of around 2 per cent by 2020.

•The projections for the other types of ownership and the carbon pools are based on extrapolations of trend and are assumed to be at the same level throughout the projection period.

1 Swedish Environmental Protection Agency, report 5169.

146	Annex 5

Assumptions underlying calculation for sensitivity analysis in the energy sector

1.. Higher fossil fuel prices

Import prices for crude oil, coal and natural gas and ex- change rates, current prices

			Main	Higher fossil
			alternative	fuel prices
	2005	2007	2010-2020	2010-2020
Crude oil (USD/barrel)	54.4	72.7	90	120
Carbon, USD/tonne at port	61.1	88.8	96	128
Natural gas, USD/Mbtu	6.0	8.6	9.2	12.2
Exchange rate, USD/SEK	7.48	6.76	6.76	6.76

•The price of emission allowances is assumed to be 35 euros per tonne of carbon dioxide in the alter- native with a higher fossil-fuel price.

Economic development in the main alternative and in the alternative with higher fossil fuel prices

Growth in %/year	Main alternative		Higher fossil fuel prices
	2005-2010	2010-2020	2005-2010	2010-2020
GDP	2.64	2.06	2.53	2.05
Private consumption	2.5	3.16	2.05	3.16
Exports	5.91	4.94	5.9	4.95
Imports	6.47	5.57	6.26	5.59

Swedish area price (SEK/kWh) for electricity in 2005 and for the projection years 2010, 2015 and 2020, an- nual average, 2005 price level.

	2005	2010	2015	2020
Main alternative	27.2	48	47	47
Higher fossil fuel price	27.2	55	54	54

2.. Higher growth

Economic development in the main alternative and in the alternative with higher growth

Growth in %/year	Main alternative		Higher growth
	2005-2010	2010-2020	2005-2010	2010-2020
GDP	2.64	2.06	2.90	2.68
Private consumption	2.5	3.16	2.65	3.89
Exports	5.91	4.94	6.21	5.54
Imports	6.47	5.57	6.77	6.17

Assumptions underlying alternative with additional measures

Measures included:

•Regulation of the carbon dioxide emissions of new cars not exceeding 130 g/km on average with ef- fect from 2015. The regulation already applies to 65 per cent of the new car fleet in 2012. The re- quirement in 2020 is that carbon dioxide emis- sions do not exceed 95 g/km.

•Aviation is included in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme from 2012.

•Permitted admixture of ethanol in petrol is raised from 5 per cent to 10 per cent in the projection period.

Assumptions underlying partial sensitivity calculation 2010

•The calculations are based a short-term projec- tion of energy use (July 2009)

•The short-term projection is based on policy in- struments decided upon by June 2009.

Economic assumptions (%/year)

	2008	2009	2010
GDP	-0.2	-5.4	0.8
Industrial production	-3.4	-23.5	2.5
Household consumption	-0.2	-1.9	2

Oil price assumption (2008 price)

	2008	2010
Crude oil (USD/barrel)	97.6	57

Annex 5	147

Annex 6:

Bilateral and regional financial support 2004-2008 related to implementation of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol

148	Annex 6

Bilateral and regional financial support related to implementation of UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol in 2004 (SEK million)

				Mitigation					Adaptation			Other
	Total					Waste					Other
Region	2004	Energy	Transport	Forestry	Agriculture	management	Industry	Water	Forestry	Agriculture	adaptation
Albania	50,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	50,0	0,0

Bangladesh	13,9	0,0	0,0	8,8	0,0	0,0	0,0	5,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0

Bosnia-Herzegovina	0,1	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,1	0,0	0,1	0,0	0,0

Burkina Faso	50,7	2,2	0,1	11,8	7,8	2,2	0,0	4,9	5,9	13,7	0,1	2,1

Philippines	94,6	5,5	0,0	7,4	1,4	0,0	0,0	22,4	15,3	13,3	14,5	14,7

Honduras	18,8	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	11,0	0,0	0,0	7,8	0,0

Caucasus	27,7	0,0	0,0	0,0	5,7	5,3	0,0	5,3	0,0	5,7	0,0	5,7

Kenya	45,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	45,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0

Congo	9,6	9,6	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0

Kosovo	28,4	0,0	0,0	8,0	4,5	0,0	0,0	3,4	8,0	4,5	0,0	0,0

Laos	0,1	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,1

Macedonia	29,4	29,4	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0

Malawi	93,9	56,8	0,0	23,6	7,4	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	6,1	0,0	0,0

Mozambique	0,4	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,4	0,0

Montenegro	107,5	0,0	0,0	5,4	6,8	20,8	0,0	37,7	3,3	33,7	0,0	0,0

Pakistan	46,6	5,0	0,0	1,4	1,4	0,0	0,0	11,4	1,4	16,2	5,0	4,8

Reg. Africa	21,3	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	15,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	6,3	0,0	0,0

Reg Asia	13,0	0,0	0,0	4,0	4,0	0,0	0,0	5,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0

Reg South-East Asia	8,2	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	3,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	5,2

Reg Southern Africa	10,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	2,6	0,0	2,6	0,0	4,8

Reg. Lake Victoria	15,2	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	15,2

Reg. West Africa	8,6	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	8,6	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0

Reg. East Africa	7,8	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	7,8	0,0	0,0

Rwanda	15,3	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	15,3	0,0

Serbia	42,3	21,2	0,0	0,0	0,0	6,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	15,1	0,0	0,0

Sri Lanka	25,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	25,0	0,0	0,0	0,0

Sudan	21,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	21,0

Tajikistan	1,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	1,0	0,0	0,0

Tanzania	99,9	29,8	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	24,2	14,6	14,6	16,8	0,0

Uganda	13,4	0,0	0,0	0,0	3,8	0,0	0,0	5,8	0,0	3,8	0,0	0,0

Vietnam	34,9	0,3	0,0	0,3	0,3	0,0	0,3	2,4	15,6	15,6	0,1	0,0

Zambia	44,6	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	1,6	0,0	41,4	1,6	0,0

Total	998,4	159,9	0,1	70,6	43,1	102,9	0,3	145,7	89,0	201,6	111,6	73,6

Annex 6	149

Bilateral and regional financial support related to implementation of UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol in 2005 (SEK million)

				Mitigation					Adaptation			Other
	Total					Waste					Other
Region	2004	Energy	Transport	Forestry	Agriculture	management	Industry	Water	Forestry	Agriculture	adaptation
Albania	10,1	0,0	0,0	5,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	5,0	0,0	0,0	0,0

Bangladesh	152,8	0,0	0,0	0,0	17,8	17,8	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	51,8	65,3

Bolivia	8,9	0,0	0,0	4,4	0,0	0,0	0,0	4,5	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0

Bosnia-Hercegovina	48,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	48,0	0,0

Burkina Faso	2,1	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	1,0	0,0	1,0	0,0	0,0

Ethiopia	104,3	1,4	1,4	21,8	19,9	1,4	0,0	15,4	16,9	24,8	1,4	0,0

Global	198,4	3,8	0,0	7,4	1,4	12,9	3,9	23,3	15,9	64,2	43,4	22,2

Guatemala	6,3	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	6,3

India	30,7	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	10,1	0,0	19,0	0,0	0,0	1,7	0,0

Indonesia	105,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	80,0	25,0

Kenya	118,6	4,6	19,7	0,0	12,4	0,0	0,0	51,4	0,0	12,4	0,0	18,1

Kosovo	16,6	9,9	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	6,6	0,0

Laos	29,7	0,0	0,0	8,5	4,3	0,0	0,0	4,2	8,5	4,3	0,0	0,0

Macedonia	0,6	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,6	0,0

Mozambique	86,4	39,2	0,0	25,6	7,5	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	14,1	0,0	0,0

Montenegro	5,6	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	5,6	0,0

Nicaragua	116,3	0,0	0,0	5,1	7,8	20,2	1,6	29,6	1,6	50,4	0,0	0,0

Reg. Africa	43,9	6,0	0,0	1,6	1,6	0,0	0,0	10,7	1,6	14,0	5,0	3,3

Reg. Asia	53,7	0,8	7,8	0,8	0,8	18,0	0,8	0,0	0,0	8,7	0,0	16,0

Reg. Central America	16,4	0,0	0,0	3,0	3,0	0,0	0,0	10,3	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0

Reg South-East Asia	28,8	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	25,7	0,0	0,0	0,0	3,2

Reg Southern Africa	16,6	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	8,5	0,0	3,5	0,0	4,6

Reg. Lake Victoria	20,4	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	3,4	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	17,0

Reg. West Africa	6,5	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	6,5	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0

Reg. East Africa	13,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	7,6	0,0	0,0	0,0	5,4	0,0	0,0

Rwanda	22,1	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	22,1	0,0

Serbia	29,3	18,1	0,0	0,0	0,0	1,8	0,0	0,0	0,0	9,4	0,0	0,0

Sri Lanka	240,0	0,0	20,0	0,0	0,0	210,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	10,0

Tajikistan	7,3	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	7,3	0,0	0,0

Tanzania	138,9	56,7	10,3	0,0	5,9	0,0	14,4	18,1	6,7	6,7	20,1	0,0

Uganda	29,0	1,3	0,0	0,0	6,5	1,3	0,0	12,1	0,0	6,5	0,0	1,3

Vietnam	135,1	2,2	0,0	2,9	2,9	0,0	2,2	16,4	52,0	51,3	5,2	0,0

West Bank	195,4	9,5	0,0	0,0	0,0	10,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	135,9	40,0

Zambia	63,7	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	1,6	0,0	60,5	1,6	0,0

Total	2100	153,4	59,2	86,2	91,9	321,0	22,9	251,9	108,3	344,6	428,9	232,3

150	Annex 6

Bilateral and regional financial support related to implementation of UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol in 2006 (SEK million)

				Mitigation					Adaptation			Other
	Total					Waste					Other
Region	2004	Energy	Transport	Forestry	Agriculture	management	Industry	Water	Forestry	Agriculture	adaptation
Albania	10,5	0,0	0,0	5,3	0,0	0,0	0,0	4,1	1,1	0,0	0,0	0,0

Bangladesh	137,1	0,0	0,0	0,0	17,8	17,8	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	35,5	66,0

Bolivia	17,4	0,0	0,0	9,4	0,0	0,0	0,0	8,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0

Bosnia-Herzegovina	14,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	14,0	0,0	0,0

Burkina Faso	4,2	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	2,1	0,0	2,1	0,0	0,0

Ethiopia	95,7	0,1	0,1	21,8	18,0	0,1	0,0	15,7	17,2	22,6	0,1	0,0

Philippines	5,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	5,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0

Global	218,9	6,2	0,0	12,1	9,1	6,2	6,2	45,6	14,1	17,1	64,3	37,8

Guatemala	37,5	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	26,4	11,1

Honduras	11,9	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	11,9	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0

India	29,7	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	5,0	0,0	17,0	0,0	0,0	7,8	0,0

Indonesia	90,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	5,0	0,0	0,0	70,0	15,0

Iraq	43,8	43,8	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0

Kenya	170,3	1,2	30,9	29,4	10,7	2,5	0,0	43,7	26,9	13,1	0,0	12,0

Kyrgyzstan	13,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	13,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0

Kosovo	14,3	1,6	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	12,7	0,0

Laos	29,9	0,0	0,0	9,9	5,1	0,0	0,0	0,0	9,9	5,1	0,0	0,0

Macedonia	4,8	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	4,8	0,0

Mozambique	180,1	99,8	0,0	43,6	13,6	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	16,6	0,0	6,5

Montenegro	15,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	15,0	0,0

Nicaragua	105,0	0,0	0,0	3,2	6,0	21,7	1,0	24,8	5,0	43,3	0,0	0,0

Reg. Africa	52,7	6,0	0,0	0,8	0,8	15,6	0,0	10,8	0,8	10,8	7,0	0,0

Reg. Asia	57,8	1,7	1,8	1,7	1,7	17,3	1,7	17,0	0,0	8,6	0,0	6,5

Reg. Central America	7,5	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	7,5	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0

Reg South-East Asia	43,7	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	15,9	0,0	0,0	0,0	27,7

Reg. Sub-Saharan Africa	10,5	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	10,5	0,0

Reg. Southern Africa	15,1	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	7,7	0,0	2,7	0,0	4,6

Reg. Lake Victoria	27,7	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	9,3	0,0	12,1	0,0	0,0	0,0	6,3

Reg. West Africa	1,5	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	1,5	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0

Reg. East Africa	15,3	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	15,3	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0

Rwanda	23,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	23,0	0,0

Serbia	25,5	13,1	0,0	0,0	0,0	-0,9	0,0	0,0	0,0	5,7	7,5	0,0

Sri Lanka	20,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	20,0

Tajikistan	7,6	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	7,6	0,0	0,0

Tanzania	138,8	51,4	12,6	0,0	10,4	0,0	13,6	16,1	6,5	6,5	12,4	9,3

Uganda	129,2	49,0	0,0	0,0	8,2	2,5	0,0	58,7	0,0	8,2	0,0	2,5

Vietnam	146,7	3,0	0,0	0,4	0,4	0,0	3,0	20,1	53,5	56,1	10,3	0,0

West Bank	90,6	9,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	82,6	-0,9

Zambia	55,1	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	1,8	0,0	51,4	1,8	0,0

Total	2 116	285,9	45,4	137,5	101,7	126,9	25,5	350,7	135,0	291,6	391,7	224,4

Annex 6	151

Bilateral and regional financial support related to implementation of UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol in 2007 (SEK million)

				Mitigation					Adaptation			Other
	Total					Waste					Other
Region	2004	Energy	Transport	Forestry	Agriculture	management	Industry	Water	Forestry	Agriculture	adaptation
Albania	8,6	0,0	0,0	4,3	0,0	0,0	0,0	4,3	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0

Bangladesh	10,2	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,1	0,1	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,5	9,5

Bolivia	10,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	10,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0

Bosnia-Herzegovina	7,9	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	7,9	0,0	0,0

Burkina Faso	4,9	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	2,5	0,0	2,5	0,0	0,0

Ethiopia	76,9	2,9	0,0	18,9	12,3	0,0	0,0	11,8	12,3	18,9	0,0	0,0

Philippines	8,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	8,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0

Global	319,5	38,9	0,0	14,8	9,3	4,3	4,3	35,4	14,8	45,9	97,1	54,8

Guatemala	31,1	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	13,6	17,5

Honduras	12,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	12,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0

India	21,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	11,3	0,0	0,0	9,7	0,0

Indonesia	14,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	8,2	0,0	0,0	5,9	0,0

Iraq	9,1	9,1	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0

Cambodia	8,4	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	8,4	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0

Kenya	123,7	0,7	33,6	7,1	18,6	4,1	0,0	24,8	3,0	21,6	0,0	10,2

China	3,5	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	1,8	1,8	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0

Kyrgyzstan	19,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	19,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0

Congo	6,3	0,0	0,0	6,3	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0

Kosovo	6,5	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	6,5	0,0

Laos	38,9	0,0	0,0	11,5	7,5	0,0	0,0	4,0	11,5	4,3	0,0	0,0

Macedonia	7,2	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	7,2	0,0

Mozambique	113,6	44,9	0,0	19,9	6,2	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	34,2	0,0	8,5

Montenegro	13,6	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	13,6	0,0

Nicaragua	101,1	0,0	0,0	4,6	7,4	8,0	1,4	19,1	4,5	56,1	0,0	0,0

Pakistan	20,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	6,7	6,7	6,7	0,0	0,0

Reg. Africa	24,6	5,0	0,0	-0,7	-0,7	15,3	0,0	4,3	-0,7	-0,7	3,0	0,0

Reg. Asia	77,0	37,1	8,5	1,9	1,9	16,3	1,9	0,4	0,0	8,7	0,0	0,0

Reg. Central America	8,7	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	8,7	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0

Reg South-East Asia	55,7	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	16,6	0,0	0,0	0,0	39,1

Reg Southern Africa	9,2	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	7,1	0,0	2,1	0,0	0,0

Reg. Lake Victoria	33,9	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	19,8	0,0	13,9	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,3

Reg. East Africa	20,1	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	15,3	0,0	0,0	0,0	4,8	0,0	0,0

Rwanda	25,8	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	25,8	0,0

Serbia	12,9	2,9	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,5	9,4	0,0

Sri Lanka	32,4	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	17,4	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	15,0

South Africa	10,0	0,0	3,3	0,0	0,0	3,3	3,3	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0

Tajikistan	4,8	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	4,8	0,0	0,0

Tanzania	147,6	72,1	3,9	0,0	8,1	0,0	8,2	11,4	3,4	3,4	23,0	14,1

Turkey	5,8	5,8	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0

Uganda	77,4	2,6	0,0	0,0	5,3	1,3	0,0	61,6	0,0	5,3	0,0	1,3

Vietnam	169,6	0,7	0,0	1,3	1,3	0,0	0,7	20,0	62,4	61,8	21,4	0,0

West Bank	2,8	10,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	-7,2	0,0

Zambia	63,2	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	1,0	0,0	53,3	9,0	0,0

Totalt	1777	232,7	49,4	89,9	77,2	124,1	21,5	313,0	117,9	342,0	238,6	170,2

152	Annex 6

Bilateral and regional financial support related to implementation of UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol in 2008 (SEK million)

				Mitigation					Adaptation			Other
	Total					Waste					Other
Region	2004	Energy	Transport	Forestry	Agriculture	management	Industry	Water	Forestry	Agriculture	adaptation
Albania	22,8	0,0	0,0	11,4	0,0	0,0	0,0	4,3	7,1	0,0	0,0	0,0

Bangladesh	72,2	0,0	0,0	0,0	18,0	18,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	36,1	0,0

Bolivia	10,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	10,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0

Bosnia-Herzegovina	5,3	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	5,1	0,2	0,0

Burkina Faso	4,9	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	2,5	0,0	2,5	0,0	0,0

Ethiopia	58,8	0,2	0,0	11,4	17,9	0,0	0,0	8,4	9,6	11,4	0,0	0,0

Philippines	9,5	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	9,5	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0

Global	289,4	18,3	0,0	9,9	9,9	3,0	3,0	34,8	14,9	21,1	123,7	51,0

Guatemala	88,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	48,0	40,0

India	18,7	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	2,0	0,0	12,3	0,0	0,0	4,4	0,0

Indonesia	13,8	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	9,5	0,0	0,0	12,0	-7,7

Iraq	14,0	3,5	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	10,5	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0

Cambodia	9,7	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	9,7	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0

Kenya	223,3	0,5	33,1	13,3	42,7	10,0	0,0	68,3	3,3	45,9	0,0	6,3

China	7,5	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	3,8	3,8	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0

Kyrgyzstan	31,3	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	31,3	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0

Congo	3,9	0,0	0,0	3,9	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0

Kosovo	0,3	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,3	0,0

Laos	42,6	0,0	0,0	11,5	8,0	0,0	0,0	3,6	11,5	8,0	0,0	0,0

Macedonia	4,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	4,0	0,0

Mozambique	153,8	77,9	0,0	8,9	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	44,8	0,0	22,2

Montenegro	14,4	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	14,4	0,0

Nicaragua	123,7	0,0	0,0	5,7	7,0	29,7	0,9	29,4	5,7	45,3	0,0	0,0

Pakistan	10,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	3,3	3,3	3,3	0,0	0,0

Reg. Africa	81,2	5,0	0,0	5,9	5,9	16,3	0,0	37,0	5,9	5,3	0,0	0,0

Reg. Asia	91,7	49,5	18,9	1,2	1,2	1,2	1,2	8,1	0,0	10,5	0,0	0,0

Reg. Central America	9,3	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	9,3	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0

Reg South-East Asia	31,8	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	2,2	0,0	0,0	0,0	29,7

Reg. Sub-Saharan Africa	40,0	0,0	6,0	0,0	0,0	6,0	0,0	6,0	0,0	0,0	22,0	0,0

Reg. Lake Victoria	39,4	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	10,3	0,0	29,1	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0

Reg. East Africa	16,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	7,6	0,0	0,0	0,0	8,4	0,0	0,0

Rwanda	27,1	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	27,1	0,0

Serbia	18,1	9,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	9,2	0,0

Sri Lanka	13,4	0,0	20,0	0,0	0,0	5,1	0,0	0,0	-11,7	0,0	0,0	0,0

South Africa	16,0	0,0	5,3	0,0	0,0	5,3	5,3	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0

Tajikistan	22,5	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	22,5	0,0	0,0

Tanzania	221,7	190,9	0,2	0,0	6,4	0,0	10,4	2,1	0,0	0,0	7,1	4,7

Turkey	6,4	6,4	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0

Uganda	129,0	52,3	0,0	0,0	3,9	1,6	0,0	65,6	0,0	3,9	0,0	1,6

Vietnam	132,3	2,0	0,0	0,1	0,1	0,0	2,0	20,7	47,3	49,2	10,9	0,0

West Bank	11,5	11,5	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0

Zambia	42,9	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,0	0,6	0,0	34,9	7,3	0,0

Grand total	2182	427,0	83,6	83,0	120,9	147,5	26,6	400,4	96,9	322,2	326,7	147,7

Annex 6	153

Annex 7:

Information in accordance with Article 7.2 of the Kyoto Protocol

Reported information	NC5 section
National system for inventory of emissions	Annex 3

National registry	Annex 4

Supplementarity related to mechanisms under Articles 6, 12 and 17.	Chap. 5.7

Policy instruments implemented to promote sustainable development (Art. 2)	Chap. 4.2

Initiatives in IMO and ICAO to reduce emissions from international transport (Art. 2)	Chap. 4.2.9

Minimise adverse effects (Art. 2)	Chap. 4.2.10

Programmes, legislative arrangement and administrative procedures for implementation of the Kyoto Protocol	Chap. 4.1

Implementation of Art. 3.3, 3.4 and contribution to conservation of biodiversity and of natural resources	Chap. 4.2.8

Information in accordance with Article 10
a. improve data for inventory of emissions	Annex 3
b. activities for emission limitation and adaptation	Chap. 4.2, 4.3, 6.1, 6.4
c. activities for technology transfer and capacity building	Chap. 7.5
d. cooperation in research and systematic observation	Chap. 8.2.6, 8.3
e. international participation in information and training	Chap. 9.5.5

Financial resources and capacity building (Art. 11)	Chap. 7.2.2, 7.3, 7.4

Implementation of New Delhi programme (Art. 6)	Chap. 9.5

154	Annex 7

Departementsserien 2009Kronologisk förteckning

1.Förstärkt integritetsskydd vid signalspaning. Fö.

2.Skyddade beteckningar på jordbruksprodukter och livsmedel. Jo.

3.Fordonsbesiktning. N.

4.Översyn av vissa mediemyndigheter

– en effektivare administration. Ku.

5.Författningsändringar med anledning av VISförord- ningen. Ju.

6.Ekonomiska villkor för ledamöter av Europaparlamen- tet. Ju.

7.Effektivare regler och bättre beslutsunderlag för ar- betsmarknadspolitiken. A.

8.Genomförandet av delar av Prümrådsbeslutet. Ju.

9.Förbättrad utslussning från sluten ungdomsvård och ändrade gallringsregler i belastningsregistret. Ju.

10.Stärkt finanspolitiskt ramverk – översyn av budgetla- gens bestämmelser om utgiftstak. Fi.

11.Oberoendet i den kommunala revisionen. Fi.

12.Registrering av personuppgifter vid katastrofer utom- lands. Ju.

13.Konsumenttjänster m.m. Ju.

14.Konsumentombudsmannen – en översyn IJ.

15.En enklare ledighetslagstiftning. A.

16.Produktsäkerhet vid offentliga tjänster. IJ.

17.Straffrättsliga åtgärder till förebyggande av terrorism. Ju.

18.Behovsbedömning av annat än ekonomiskt bistånd en- ligt socialtjänstlagen. S.

19.Insatser för en alkohol- och narkotikafri graviditet. S.

20.Rätt till gymnasial vuxenutbildning och gymnasial sär- vux. U.

21.Bortom krisen. Om ett framgångsrikt Sverige i den nya globala ekonomin. U.

22.Genomförande av FN:s vapenprotokoll m.m. Ju.

23.Det nya punktskattedirektivet. Fi.

24.Effektivare skatter på klimat- och energiområdet. Fi.

25.Den nya skollagen – för kunskap, valfrihet och trygg- het. Del 1+2. U.

26.Förbättringar i arbetslöshetsförsäkringen. A.

27.Ny lag om ekologisk produktion. Jo.

28.Ny delgivningslag m.m. Ju.

29.Återbetalningsskyldighet i straffrättsliga förfaranden, m.m. Ju.

30.Nya rättsmedel m.m. på upphandlingsområdet. Fi.

31.Patientnämnderna – begränsning av sekretessbrytande bestämmelse. S.

32.Teknisk sprit m.m. S.

33.Förändringar i Lex Sarah-bestämmelsen m.m. S.

34.Ett undantag från skyldigheten att upprätta koncern- redovisning. Ju.

35.Vad kräver krisen av främjandet? UD.

36.Upphandling från statliga och kommunala företag. Fi.

37.Nya avfallsregler. M.

38.Myndigheternas skrivregler. SB.

39.Åtgärder mot familjeseparation inom migrationsområ det. Ju.

40.Vissa samepolitiska frågor. Jo.

41.Betalningsansvaret för underårigas avgifter inom hälso- och sjukvården och tandvården. S.

42.Ett skärpt skadeståndsansvar för föräldrar. Ju.

43.Närvaroliggare och kontrollbesök. En utvärdering och förslag till utvidgning. Fi.

44.Vidareutnyttjande av handlingar – genomförande av PSI-direktivet. Fi.

45.Stöd till personer som lämnar sjukförsäkringen – kom- pletterande förändringar i lagen om allmän försäkring. S.

46.Stöd till personer som lämnar sjukförsäkringen – tem- porära förändringar i arbetslöshetsförsäkringen. A.

47.Reformen skydd mot olyckor – en uppföljning med förslag till utveckling. Fö.

48.Pionjärbanor för spårbilar. Analys av aktuella förutsätt- ningar. N.

49.Vissa apoteksfrågor. S

50.Statligt stöd till riksdagspartiernas kvinnoorganisatio- ner. IJ.

51.Ansvaret i vissa län för regionalt tillväxtarbete och transportinfrastrukturplanering. Fi.

52.Uppehållstillstånd för skyddspersoner. Ju.

53.Detta är pensionsöverenskommelsen. S.

54.Behörighet för lokförare. N.

55.En ny försäkringsrörelselag. Fi.

56.Statsluftfarten. N.

57.Nytt EG-direktiv om tidsdelat boende m.m. Ju.

58.Mervärdesskatt för den ideella sektorn, m.m. Fi.

59.Exportkontroll m.m. av produkter med dubbla an- vändningsområden. UD.

60.Allmännyttiga kommunala bostadsaktiebolag – över- väganden och förslag. Fi.

61.Leveransplikt för elektroniska dokument. U.

62.Placering av barn över nationsgränser med stöd av Bryssel II-förordningen och 1996 års Haagkonvention m.m. Ju.

63.Sveriges femte nationalrapport om klimatförändringar. I enlighet med Förenta nationernas ramkonvention om klimatförändringar. M.

155

Departementsserien 2009Systematisk förteckning

Statsrådsberedningen

Myndigheternas skrivregler. [38]

Justitiedepartementet

Författningsändringar med anledning av VISförordningen. [5] Ekonomiska villkor för ledamöter av Europaparlamentet. [6] Genomförandet av delar av Prümrådsbeslutet. [8] Förbättrad utslussning från sluten ungdomsvård och ändrade

gallringsregler i belastningsregistret [9] Registrering av personuppgifter vid katastrofer utomlands. [12]

Konsumenttjänster m.m. [13] Straffrättsliga åtgärder till förebyggande av terrorism. [17]

Genomförande av FN:s vapenprotokoll m.m.[22] Ny delgivningslag m.m. [28]

Återbetalningsskyldighet i straffrättsliga förfaranden, m.m. [29]

Ett undantag från skyldigheten att upprätta koncernredo visning. [34]

Åtgärder mot familjeseparation inom migrationsområdet. [39]

Ett skärpt skadeståndsansvar för föräldrar. [42] Uppehållstillstånd för skyddspersoner. [52]

Nytt EG-direktiv om tidsdelat boende m.m. [57] Placering av barn över nationsgränser med stöd av Bryssel

II-förordningen och1996 års Haagkonvention m.m. [62]

Utrikesdepartementet

Vad kräver krisen av främjandet? [35]

Exportkontroll m.m. av produkter med dubbla användnings- områden. [59]

Försvarsdepartementet

Förstärkt integritetsskydd vid signalspaning. [1] Reformen skydd mot olyckor – en uppföljning med förslag

till utveckling. [47]

Socialdepartementet

Behovsbedömning av annat än ekonomiskt bistånd enligt socialtjänstlagen. [18]

Insatser för en alkohol- och narkotikafri graviditet. [19] Patientnämnderna – begränsning av sekretessbrytande

bestämmelse . [31] Teknisk sprit m.m. [32]

Förändringar i Lex Sarah-bestämmelsen m.m. [33] Betalningsansvaret för underårigas avgifter inom hälso-

och sjukvården och tandvården. [41]

Stöd till personer som lämnar sjukförsäkringen – komplette- rande förändringar i lagen om allmän försäkring. [45]

Vissa apoteksfrågor. [49]

Detta är pensionsöverenskommelsen. [53]

Finansdepartementet

Stärkt finanspolitiskt ramverk – översyn av budgetlagens bestämmelser om utgiftstak. [10]

Oberoendet i den kommunala revisionen. [11] Det nya punktskattedirektivet. [23]

Effektivare skatter på klimat- och energiområdet. [24] Nya rättsmedel m.m. på upphandlingsområdet. [30] Upphandling från statliga och kommunala företag. [36] Närvaroliggare och kontrollbesök.

En utvärdering och förslag till utvidgning. [43] Vidareutnyttjande av handlingar – genomförande

av PSI-direktivet. [44]

Ansvaret i vissa län för regionalt tillväxtarbete och transportinfrastrukturplanering. [51]

En ny försäkringsrörelselag. [55]

Mervärdesskatt för den ideella sektorn, m.m. [58] Allmännyttiga kommunala bostadsaktiebolag – över

väganden och förslag. [60]

Utbildningsdepartementet

Rätt till gymnasial vuxenutbildning och gymnasial särvux. [20]

Bortom krisen. Om ett framgångsrikt Sverige i den nya globala ekonomin. [21]

Den nya skollagen – för kunskap, valfrihet och trygghet. Del 1+2. [25]

Leveransplikt för elektroniska dokument. [61]

Jordbruksdepartementet

Skyddade beteckningar på jordbruksprodukter och livs- medel. [2]

Ny lag om ekologisk produktion. [27] Vissa samepolitiska frågor. [40]

Miljödepartementet

Nya avfallsregler. [37]

Sveriges femte nationalrapport om klimatförändringar. I enlighet med Förenta nationernas ramkonvention om klimatförändringar. [63]

Näringsdepartementet

Fordonsbesiktning. [3]

Pionjärbanor för spårbilar.

Analys av aktuella förutsättningar. [48]

Behörighet för lokförare. [54]

Statsluftfarten. [56]

Integrations- och jämställdhetsdepartementet

Konsumentombudsmannen – en översyn. [14] Produktsäkerhet vid offentliga tjänster. [16]

Statligt stöd till riksdagspartiernas kvinnoorganisationer.

Kulturdepartementet

Översyn av vissa mediemyndigheter – en effektivare administration . [4]

Arbetsmarknadsdepartementet

Effektivare regler och bättre beslutsunderlag för arbets- marknadspolitiken. [7]

En enklare ledighetslagstiftning. [15] Förbättringar i arbetslöshetsförsäkringen. [26]

Stöd till personer som lämnar sjukförsäkringen – tem- porära förändringar i arbetslöshetsförsäkringen. [46]

156

ISBN 978-91-38-23319-1 ISSN 0284-6012